Florida State @ Wake Forest... Tough Decision?

[Destructor D]

I have thought a lot and going to wager now rather than wait... Florida State is coming off a bad game vs. NC State where they gave up a TD their opening drive, but played good defense the rest of the game only giving up a FG. Wake Forest beat the Criminoles 30-0 last season. Riley Skinner has 2 TD's and 7 INT's in 2007... he's never recovered from his injury IMO. Lee has taken over as QB for FSU and looked great in the process. The trends point towards Wake Forest in this game which is probably why the line has gone from 6 to 5.5... however, I'm not going to be foolish and take the sucker trap of home dog on Thursday night, etc.

Florida State is the far better defensive team and they are at least Wake Forest's equal offensively if not much better IMO as Weatherford was terrible. I hate betting with the public and laying points on the road more than anyone, but revenge is going to be a factor on Thursday night. Florida State knows they got shutout last season and will be well prepared for this game despite the short week (both teams coming off short weeks although WF gave up 36 points to Duke, once again this is Duke football!)

Florida State -5.5 for 8*
Florida State 1st half -3 (-105) for 4*

Do I feel 100% confident in this pick? No, because Florida State could be point shaving for all I know, but I like it as revenge is a solid motivator. Wake Forrest hasn't impressed me at all this season... lost to Nebraska, but covered... Had a miraculous win vs. Maryland @ home... Deamon Deacons were a 1 season wonder and will come back to reality this season. Criminoles have the athletes to exploit and the revenge factor to make things ugly IMO.

How many fans will be in Winston-Salem and will it be intimidating... give me a break.

Florida State is on a rolll and wins going away... they're ranked because they have won 5 in a row and IMO, have as good a shot as anyone at winning the ACC.

Florida State 27 Wake Forrest 13... don't be a sucker taking the home dog.

GLTA

 

[Dr. Fade]

I don't like playing under's in college since the clock stops every time someone breaths, but I could easily see a 7-3 halftime score in this one.

 

[Theboundbook]

I have WF in my parlay tomorrow..... I am for sure gonna hedge with FSU, but after reading this, it makes sense..... I may split the profits down the middle instead of just protecting the cost of the parlay.....

Gotta sleep on it.... Good luck. But u know how I am with the Public chit and I am really seeing home dogs paying off this season so far.

 

[Cie]

There is no question that the agressive FSU D will come in pumped-up with revenge in mind from last year's beatdown, but I am thinking this will benefit WF's misdirection offense--- particularly in the early going.

I played WF +6 figuring it would be tough for FSU to be ready for this offense on a short week, plus I have no confidence in the FSU offense or Jimbo Fisher--imo the most overrated OC in the nation. I am likely going to add a 1 unit play on WF in the 1Q.

GL on all your plays:weed:

 

[Wake Man]

Wake is healthier now than they have been all season, Andrews is back 100%, freshman Josh Adams is coming into his own at RB, Skinner is finally shaking the rust off. I like Wake in the 1st half, they just scare me a little for the whole game. Sometimes they don't play for 4 quarters.
Good Luck!!! I'm laying off this one, just wanted to let you know they are healthy now and are wanting to show people that last yr. was NOT a fluke.

 

[Dr. Fade]

I think I'll roll w/you on FSU. The revenge factor is what sold me. FSU sometimes seems like they sleepwalk through games. I don't think that will happen here. They were humiliated @ home last year and w/superior athletes, speed, and motivation they should be the right side tonight. Also playing the Under. Small play on FSU -5 Med on Under 44 (-20) GL Boyz

 

[eeeerock]

I think I'll roll w/you on FSU. The revenge factor is what sold me. FSU sometimes seems like they sleepwalk through games. I don't think that will happen here. They were humiliated @ home last year and w/superior athletes, speed, and motivation they should be the right side tonight. Also playing the Under. Small play on FSU -5 Med on Under 44 (-20) GL Boyz

Flor St has Miami Flo next week.Could be looking ahead.Has not played well on the road either.Will be playing Wake +

 

[hammer1]

Let's see. Wake is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 as a

dog and Florida State is 6-14 vs the spread in

its last 20 as chalk. Who do I want?

Wake and under teaser Maybe ???

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Not sure who I'm taking.

I like your writeup, although Wake is certainly not a 1-season wonder. They are extremely well coached.

They have had so many close games over the last few years, heartbreakers. Last year everything came together.

A LOT of experienced older players who finally learned how to win those close ones as well as taking advantage of an ACC that was down. Down mostly in "football" rather than athleticism.

Wake lost a lot of players off that team and it has showed. The comeback against MD was a fluke and while Duke is better, its still Duke.

I think FSU covers, but want to do a little more research...

 

[3 Seconds]

FSU down to -4.5.

Late $ coming in on Wake...:com:

 

[Destructor D]

Florida State -3 (-140) for 8* & 1st half Florida State -3 (+100) for 4*

Change from my original post last night. Just got these numbers so hoping FSU comes ready to play.

GLTA as I'm nervous playing a public play with the line going down.

 

[Cie]

FSU down to -4.5.

Late $ coming in on Wake...:com:

WF must have been released this afternoon by Dr Bob:shrug:

 

[bryanz]

Florida State -3 (-140) for 8* & 1st half Florida State -3 (+100) for 4*

Change from my original post last night. Just got these numbers so hoping FSU comes ready to play.

GLTA as I'm nervous playing a public play with the line going down.

not a public play... dog has support

 

[Destructor D]

Added Under 44 for 2* right before kickoff. I didn't have time to post as I was eating dinner.

Florida State's offense looks awful. Lee looks spooked & three, 3 & outs to start the game is horrid. Not feeling good early.

 

[Destructor D]

Great game! NOT! Florida State really sucked in the 2nd half and then scored a late TD to kill the Under as well... Good thing I took Colorado in baseball to finish +2.6* for the night.

Lee is your classic QB who is very athletic, but can't play the position well. FSU is a weak team with a weak OL... too bad I didn't go with the sharps and back Wake Forest... thought hard about taking Deacons 2nd half, but passed... too bad NOW!

Missed out on a week that I should have dominated and have spun my wheels. Took a couple public chalk teams and lost.

Hopefully will be smarter the remainder of the week.

GLTA

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Good luck the rest of the weekend. I like reading your posts, always insightful.

Overall the game last night was sloppy by players and refs alike, and Wake played conservative and overcame their own holding calls.

FSU has an athletic D but no discipline and you are dead on about the QB position. They have 2 option. An athletic guy who sucks or a non-athletic guy who sucks. Thats the only reason X is in there.