Thanx...I was thinking or assuming you might come up with a (your) number thru one of those processes & then compare it to the man's number.
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- Thread starter axp59
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Thanx...I was thinking or assuming you might come up with a (your) number thru one of those processes & then compare it to the man's number.
Exactly the process I use for the NBA. After tracking for a few seasons, I found that my 7 point cushion (3 possessions) for unders was profitable at about 60%+ when lined up against the book's number. It held true to form this year and very LUCKY to be hitting about 65%. I think this 65% is an anomaly but glad it showed up this year. The plays were tracked across the street if you're curious. I'm not expecting this to happen every year but it's been on a nice run the last few seasons.
BOL
Interesting...and a super percentage also. I may try some of it in baseball this year on a simple scale...don't really understand it all, but I've seen it work before.
Very interesting and I am going to be watching this all year.... Thank you for posting your stuff....
Looking for a profitable season again this year but I know that in this business, it can turn the wrong way on a dime.
The purpose of this boils down to two things.
1. the clustering of teams are going to fall around 80 wins. What it says is that 10 games either way defines good and bad. The outliers are your elite team and doormat teams @+/- 15 from center. This isn't very much in the big picture so there's really value with ML dogs or even paying a few dimes for juice.
2. Pitching is the key. Not that I really needed to state this but it's worth repeating particularly to those just starting out betting baseball.
I label teams not as good or bad. I quantify their value by saying for example, this is an 80 win team or this is a 70 win team. It's a big picture approach that helps me look at what games to even consider then it's on to pitching analysis and of course a little sprinkle of the details like ballpark, PvB, bullpen, etc.
I know there are a myriad of ways to cap bases and mine is but one but it works for me. Find something that works and go with it. BOL this season and every season.
The purpose of this boils down to two things.
1. the clustering of teams are going to fall around 80 wins. What it says is that 10 games either way defines good and bad. The outliers are your elite team and doormat teams @+/- 15 from center. This isn't very much in the big picture so there's really value with ML dogs or even paying a few dimes for juice.
2. Pitching is the key. Not that I really needed to state this but it's worth repeating particularly to those just starting out betting baseball.
I label teams not as good or bad. I quantify their value by saying for example, this is an 80 win team or this is a 70 win team. It's a big picture approach that helps me look at what games to even consider then it's on to pitching analysis and of course a little sprinkle of the details like ballpark, PvB, bullpen, etc.
I know there are a myriad of ways to cap bases and mine is but one but it works for me. Find something that works and go with it. BOL this season and every season.
