? for Raymond - Jax -2 /Tenn ???? WTF?

[Bubba]

I'd like Raymonds input, but of course anyone is welcome.
DID CHRISTMAS COME EARLY OR WHAT????

Does anyone have any clue why on earth Jax is only favored by 2?????

Does anyone have any reason why this INSANE line should not be POUNDED INTO THE GROUND?????? Is the entire Jacksonville starting lineup injured or dead????

Just wondering.

covers:
Jags are a spotless 4-0 ATS on the season.
TEN is 0-4 SU/ATS since opening day win.
TEN is 6-2 ATS last eight meetings. (Bubba note: that was then, this is now)

 

[bej0101]

could be a trap!! but jax looks great

 

[Bubba]

No offense, but only paranoid losers believe in traps. Traps don't exist. Only bad handicapping exists. Gotta realise, lines are designed for the betting public, not pro or semi-pro sports investors. We make up a very small part of the total book, almost illrelevant. Case in point: Several years ago, I got Phoneix vs. NJ Nets in NBA as a PICK. No points, just pick the winner. This is when the nets were horrible, they sucked. Did I go "no, it's a trap?" or did I go "How much can I afford to lose on this in the highly unlikely event the Suns lose?" Big bet on Suns, cha-CHING! Dinner at Smith & Wolenski's. Filet Mingon.

There is no spoon.

Any more opinions on this line? All opinions welcome.

 

[MagiTek]

I have this line at -1.5..It looks like a good spot for Jacksonville. You've got the owner taking shots at the coaches in Tennessee, George looking worn down, Air McNair looking like Air McFlop, Kearse-Holcomb-Mason out, and bye week after this for the Titans. I'm really tempted to pound this one huge......I don't think it's a trap, but who knows. Wouldn't be a surprise to see -2.5 or -3 on Jax by gametime..Hmmmm...

 

[Valuist]

No trap, just a bad line, IMO. Tenn was such a public team from 1999 all the way thru last year, even when it was clear they were on the way down. I wrote a post back in 2000 (on another site) that the 1999 Titans were one of the luckiest teams I'd ever seen. They had an extremely high number of fumble recoveries and of course they had that bizarre playoff win over Buffalo. Then they came back and, IMO, were actually a better more complete team in 2000, even though they didn't get to the Super Bowl. They had a nice ATS streak in 1999 and the public just kept riding them. Seems like a lot of the good teams from just 3 years ago have gotten bad and vice versa; except for the Bengals, who seem doomed to eternal failure.

 

[GM]

This game opened at -2? and was bet down to -2. So the early money is actually on Tennessee. Somebody must be seeing something we're not seeing!!

My only thoughts against a Jax cover were that maybe they are ready for a letdown after beating one of the best teams in the league. Though a divisional game is not usually letdown material. And you'd have to think Tennessee will not continue to lose at home. Divisional home dogs are usually a pretty solid bet. Regardless, I've already put a bet in on the Jags.

 

[GM]

An observation...

An observation...

Jacksonville has yet to score less than 23 points in a game this year. Granted, they've put up big numbers against some average to poor defences (Indy, NYJ, KC), but they did it again this weekend against what is generally regarded as a very good defence (Philly).

Tennessee has yet to allow fewer than 21 points in any game this year (and the 21 was @ Dallas). 114 pts allowed the past 3 weeks.

Seems to me this points to either Jax -2 or Over....or both. Or maybe just Jax team total Over.

 

[TCSN]

It is a known fact traps exist so saying they are for paranoid losers is absurd. Every game is not a trap like some believe but almost every week if not every week there has been atleast one trap game out there that got everyone & their mother on the side yet the line hardly budged or moved at all.

Some examples this season:

Tennessee -3 over Dallas

Dallas -8.5 over Houston

Philadelphia -3 over Jacksonville etc....

So are you trying to say when the public jumped on each of these games knowing that from a capping perspective they looked good that they were in turn bad handicapping? Do you also believe fixes don't occur in sports?


Get real

 

[MagiTek]

Really can't see Tennessee within 5 points of Jacksonville on Sunday. For the Titans, next week = Bye week, and following week = @Cincinnati..Hmm..

GM, some really good points there. This game, at -1.5, reminds me of the GB/Chi game in alot of ways..I won't say it's a lock, but unless Jacksonville turns the ball over too many times on Sunday, they will win handily.

 

[MagiTek]

TCSN, conspiracy theories aside, who do you like in the damn game..lol

And yes, I believe fixes DO NOT OCCUR in any of the 4 major North American sports.

 

[TCSN]

No opinion on this game as of now

 

[Valuist]

The thing about so-called traps is that they ALWAYS involve road favorites. The 3 games TCSN mentioned above, and you can add Miami @ KC, KC @ NYJ and NE @ SD as other games that were considered by some/many to be traps. It seems the public looks at the teams relative strengths but sometimes forgets to make that adjustment for HFA. And like Mike Lee says, "seeing you are an underdog at home sometimes inspires a team to a greater effort."

LV may not be finished sliding the Titans down on the Power Rating scale yet. Most Power Rating systems have limits on how much they can rise or drop a team; usually no more than 2 pts per week. This is usually good protection against overreacting to a team having one or two bad weeks. But when a team has an unexpected rise or fall, like the 99 Rams and this year's Rams, the bettors usually have the advantage as LV is slow to react.

 

[dr. freeze]

Its a TRAP!!! I know it is!!! And if it isn't......Its fixed!!!!

ps....Anyone seen the Easter Bunny lately?

 

[joey20]

Ok I think that everyone is geting way too riled up about this game. I do believe that traps exist, however, they are only in our heads. When vegas puts out the lines, I believe they take letdowns into consideration. Which is why Jax is only -2. However, I learned the hard way to never bet with the hope of a letdown, therefore, I will take JAX -2 BIG and cash in. Finally, the sheer thought of a game being fixed is completely absurd and paranoid!!!:nono: :nono:

 

[Jhpga]

Trap...just listen to yourself when you say that."This line is a trap..Im not falling for this one".....I hope everyone knows that "THE BOOK" is trying to get even money on both sides and not trap or sucker people into just one side of the game.I think this Tenn line is just -2 because Tenn has dominated Jax,Tenn is at home,and Tenn is the public pick.Do I think they will win?Nope!!This team is in BIG trouble.The offenses line has boycotted the media cause the media hurt their feelings after the Dallas loss.Eddie George is waaay over-rated.Steve McNair leads the NFL in interceptions and makes terrible decesions.The WR's are average at best.The defense only plays 13 players and they always get tired in the second half.Not to mention they have the worst secondary in the NFL and their best pass-rusher Kearse is out until Nov.The final reason this team is in BIG trouble is the coaching staff.Especially Fisher.He is clueless!!!So Jax is better at QB,RB,WR,OL,DL,DB and Coaching but the Titans due have a better kicking game.Ill take Jax -2 but remember...its gambling...anything could happen!!!!!!!

 

[Antonio]

Tennessee is the public pick?:nono:

I would not necessarily say that. Funny how sharp books are falling and square shops are rising. Tough game here Jax looks easy, then again maybe its an easy win

 

[pt1gard]

2 cents

2 cents

I like Jags here too ...

they are 0-3 in last 3 trips to Tenn ... as everyone knows, Adelphi was tuffest place in NFL to play not long ago, but now after eagles losing opener, both browns and skins came out with Ws ... I think Browns' game took starch outta Tenn, they travel to Oak and got doors blown off, then came home and looked just as bad vs Spurrier... I dont think Fisher prob believes they can make playoffs even at this early juncture ... and Jags have huge history/rivalry with tenn even in their short births .... Coughlin has Jags as one of surprise/resurgent teams in league, but he has his skill people healthy for first time in years and playing together ... prob jags best win is nice rd. victory in KC ... if they come out anything like that they beat Tenn ... I am guessing that this line has value and may be the type that we look back later in year and go, "man, why didnt i jump on it" but w/o benefit of HG Welles time machine, its never easy to make those calls ...

Im on Jags and if wrong so be it--they've played 3 solid teams already and havent layed an egg all year, losing only opener in close one to Dungy ... Tenn has stunk since beating Eagles ...

jeesh, I hate this, I start writing then tlak myself into increasing my bet, hehe

gl, pt1gard

 

[TCSN]

Trap...just listen to yourself when you say that."This line is a trap..Im not falling for this one".....I hope everyone knows that "THE BOOK" is trying to get even money on both sides and not trap or sucker people into just one side of the game.I think this Tenn line is just -2 because Tenn has dominated Jax,Tenn is at home,and Tenn is the public pick.Do I think they will win?Nope!!This team is in BIG trouble.The offenses line has boycotted the media cause the media hurt their feelings after the Dallas loss.Eddie George is waaay over-rated.Steve McNair leads the NFL in interceptions and makes terrible decesions.The WR's are average at best.The defense only plays 13 players and they always get tired in the second half.Not to mention they have the worst secondary in the NFL and their best pass-rusher Kearse is out until Nov.The final reason this team is in BIG trouble is the coaching staff.Especially Fisher.He is clueless!!!So Jax is better at QB,RB,WR,OL,DL,DB and Coaching but the Titans due have a better kicking game.Ill take Jax -2 but remember...its gambling...anything could happen!!!!!!!

I have to respectfully disagree on the book always trying to get even money on both sides of a game. They have a good idea of how the public will bet & set certain lines that way to trap the majority on what they think is the losing side.

When they put out lines like

Tennessee -3 vs Dallas

Philadelphia -3 vs Jacksonville

New England -3 vs San Diego

They knew they weren't going to get balanced action. There was no way it was going to happen.

 

[MagiTek]

I'll Be the First...

I'll Be the First...

...To put my money where my mouth is....I believe this Jacksonville team is a focused football team. A revenge factor, coupled with a nice situational setup for the Jags here.

Jax -1.5

535 / 500

Not messing around with other games this week, this is the one I really liked from the time the lines were posted. Not a trap at all, the bookmakers just feel that Tenn is overdue to play a good game and win. Thay may be true, and even if they play better this week, Jax will still win. Phuck Tennessee..

 

[GM]

Trap? If it's a trap and you're sure it's a trap, bet the other way. No more trap! Unless they're trying to trap you into not betting on the trap and going the other way, in which case you just got trapped.