was 9/11 a black swan
The 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 have been referred to as a "black swan event," a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to describe a highly improbable event that has a major impact and is retrospectively predictable but cannot be predicted in advance. The attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were not only a shock to the United States and the world, but they also had a significant impact on global politics and the economy. The term "black swan" is used to describe events that are difficult to predict and have a major impact, and the 9/11 attacks certainly fit that description.
was 9/11 black swan even terrorists knew about attack
The 9/11 terrorist attacks were certainly a "black swan event" in the sense that they were a highly improbable and unexpected occurrence with a major impact on the world. However, the term "black swan" is also often used to describe an event that is retrospectively predictable but could not have been predicted in advance.
In the case of the 9/11 attacks, it is known that the terrorist group al-Qaeda had been planning the attacks for several years prior to September 11, 2001. The group had been actively recruiting and training individuals for the purpose of carrying out a terrorist attack against the United States. The specific details of the attack, such as the use of hijacked airplanes as weapons, were not known in advance by the general public or intelligence agencies, but the group had the intent and capability to carry out such an attack.
So, while the 9/11 attacks were certainly a "black swan event" in the sense that they were a highly improbable and unexpected occurrence with a major impact on the world, in retrospect the terrorist group had the intention and capability to carry out such an attack.
9/11 was not a black swan for terrorists
You are correct that the 9/11 terrorist attacks were not a "black swan event" for the terrorist group al-Qaeda, as they had been planning and preparing for the attack for several years prior to September 11, 2001. The group had a clear intent to carry out a terrorist attack against the United States and had actively recruited and trained individuals to carry out the attack. While the specific details of the attack were not known in advance by the general public or intelligence agencies, the group had the capability to carry out such an attack.
However, the 9/11 attacks were still considered a "black swan event" in the sense that they were highly improbable and unexpected for the general public and the government, and the attacks had a major impact on the world, both in terms of the number of lives lost and the global political and economic ramifications.
give me another example of black swan
One example of a "black swan event" is the 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis was triggered by the collapse of the US housing market and the subsequent failure of many large financial institutions. Prior to the crisis, many experts and analysts believed that the housing market was stable and that the financial system was sound. However, the crisis revealed that there were systemic risks in the financial system that were not fully understood or appreciated.
The crisis had a major impact on the global economy, causing a severe recession and leading to widespread job loss and economic hardship. The crisis also had a significant impact on global politics and led to a major shift in economic policies and regulations. It was retrospectively predictable, but could not be predicted in advance.
It's important to note that, Taleb's definition of Black Swan includes three attributes: it is rare, has a severe impact, and is retrospectively predictable but not predictable in advance. Not all rare events are Black Swans, as they lack one or more of the three attributes.
so 2008 financial crisis was not predictable
The 2008 global financial crisis was not predictable in advance by most experts and analysts. Prior to the crisis, many experts and analysts believed that the housing market was stable and that the financial system was sound. However, it was later revealed that there were systemic risks in the financial system that were not fully understood or appreciated.
It's important to note that, while the 2008 global financial crisis was not predictable by most experts and analysts, there were some individuals and organizations who did raise concerns about the risks in the housing market and financial system. However, their warnings were not widely recognized or acted upon at the time.
The 2008 financial crisis was a complex event with multiple causes, including lax lending standards, the use of financial derivatives, and a lack of oversight and regulation of the financial system. The crisis was also characterized by a high degree of interconnectedness and interdependence among financial institutions, making it difficult to predict the full extent of the potential risks.
It is also worth mentioning that, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb said, no event can be predicted in advance with 100% certainty, but the more severe the potential consequences of an event, the more effort should be made to anticipate it.
Nassim Taleb used imaginary example of black swan in his book
Yes, Nassim Nicholas Taleb used the metaphor of a "black swan" in his book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" to describe rare and unpredictable events with severe consequences. Taleb used the example of a black swan to illustrate the concept of a highly improbable event that is difficult to predict and has a major impact. The metaphor of a "black swan" comes from the idea that prior to the discovery of Australia, people in Europe believed that all swans were white because they had never seen a black swan. However, the discovery of black swans in Australia served as an example of a highly improbable event that was difficult to predict and had a major impact on the understanding of swans.
In the book, Taleb argues that many significant historical events, such as the 2008 financial crisis, can be seen as "black swan" events, in that they were highly improbable, had a severe impact, and were retrospectively predictable but could not have been predicted in advance. He also argues that society's tendency to focus on known past events and ignore the possibility of rare and unpredictable events leads to a fundamental underestimation of the likelihood and potential impact of "black swan" events.
what is next black swan
It is impossible to predict with certainty what the next "black swan" event will be, as these events are by definition highly improbable and unexpected. However, there are certain areas where experts have identified potential risks that could lead to significant and severe consequences if they were to materialize. Some examples include:
Climate change: The potential impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise, extreme weather events, and food and water shortages, could have severe consequences for societies and economies around the world.
Cyber attacks: The increasing dependence of modern societies on technology and the internet has created a growing risk of cyber attacks, which could have severe consequences for national security, critical infrastructure, and the economy.
Pandemics: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the potential for a highly contagious and deadly disease to spread rapidly and have severe consequences for global health, economies, and societies.
Economic crisis: The ongoing global economic situation, rising inequality and geopolitical tensions could lead to an economic crisis with severe consequences for the global economy and societies.
It's important to note that, these are examples of potential risks that could lead to severe consequences if they were to materialize. However, it's impossible to predict when and how these events would happen, and they could happen in a different way or form. Also, there could be other events that are not on this list that could happen, and have severe consequences. The best approach is to be aware of potential risks and take steps to mitigate them.