Fri games

[gsp]

WLA went 6-1 yesterday. I got a 4 team par and Balt. Lost a 3 teamer so not a bad day. Not much this morning where I know the umps so will go ahead and put this up. Remember, all this means is that you have a adv behind the plate. Yesterday that was all it took.

Fav
NYY - 140
Oak - 260 (this isn't even worth putting in a par)

Dogs
Cle +260 (if you are looking for value, this is it. I certainly wouldn't be on Sea at this price with Montague in this situation)

Totals
Sea u 8
Oak o 8

Be careful playing a total based on an umps record. At this time of year that record will cost you money. An example might be Kellogg in Tex today. I show him at 13-7 under. To me this is nuetral at this time of year. His last two games have gone under and he has only had three in a row once all year. I could give other examples like Hollowell yesterday but might get into that a little later. Just be careful.

 

[Nick Douglas]

I agree with your statement about umps. I have noticed certain guys "regressing to the mean" as they say, meaning that guys with over records hitting unders and vice versa. GL today and great job yesterday.

 

[gsp]

Went ahead and played.

Cubs u 7'

 

[jderrida]

GSP:

I agree with you on the SEA UND 8 -120 although the stats would indicate otherwise, but I am sure that, like me, you have some reasons for going the other way. But, the OAK OVR is a question mark? The conditions for that game appear to make it a WLA UND play considering the stats, but I would like to know what other insight you may have regarding that one. Anyway, I also think SD UND 7.5 +100 may be WLA, but you may or may not agree.

Regards,
JD

 

[gsp]

J, thanks for the comment. Weger is the ump today. On the year he is 13-9 over but I consider that as nuetral. He is also 6-4 under his last 10. Again, pretty nuetral. But another yard-stick that I use is 8-2 that he will go over tonight. I also track situations for the crew. The situation that we have tonight is 4-0 on the year that it will go over.

This time of year what looks like a lock usually isn't. Look at packfan's thread an see what I predicted on the Cubs game ump and then who it turned out to be.

 

[jderrida]

gsp:

Thanks for the reply in my post. Anyway, I think UMP are imporant predictors of game total outcomes, but this time of the year UMPs seem to have split personalities when it comes to strikes and balls. Thanks for the imput on the OAK game as I have yet to make my play since the book I use has the Stardust opening lines and doesn't change then during the day since I am their only steady player. I wish the best of luck with the CHC total and the rest of your plays.

Regards,
JD

 

[gsp]

Going with

Phil - 135
NYY - 140
Cle +260

Just have to give it a try.

Good luck everyone

 

[jderrida]

GSP:

Well, first off good luck tonight. Second, for better or worse I decided not to play OAK UND after hearing you and another repectful capper friend of mine tonight. I am almost tempted to take the OVR, but will lay off.

Chao,
JD