BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 19
Atlanta at Arizona (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Braves haven?t lost touch with the leaders in the NL East, but they are playing below their usual standards. They?ve been a very bad road team, particularly against righthanders (6-12, -$720) and they?ll be up against a tough one when Brandon Webb (+$385, 2.30 ERA) is on the mound. Arizona has shown significant improvement this year, though we would feel more comfortable if they were taking on lefthanders in this series (D?Backs 6.1 runs per game vs. southpaws). But since the Atlanta rotation is all-righty, we?ll limit ourselves to a play on the home team?s ace starter. BEST BET: Webb.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago W. Sox (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Cubs started the season well enough, but they?ve been enduring a brutal stretch (1-10, -$945 last 10 days with 2.5 runs per game and a 6.03 ERA among starters). Not a good thing when you are taking on the World Champions, who just happen to be your cross-town rivals. Despite a so-so recent road trip, the Sox are 14-5 at home (+$585) and should dispatch the fading Cubs without difficulty. But prices will be very high, so we?ll limit ourselves to a play on Mark Buehrle (+$335, 3.42 ERA), given the Cubs? difficulty facing lefties (3-7, -$565 with only 2.7 runs per game). BEST BET: Buehrle.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The good news for Pittsburgh is they are likely to miss C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee in this series (Pirates only 1-13, -$1280 vs. southpaws). The bad news is that they are only 3-17 on the road (-$1365), they average only 3.8 runs per game, and they?ll be taking on the best offense in baseball (.298 team BA). Unfortunately, the Indians have been slumping lately (2-8, -$965 last 10 days) so unless we see prices that are more modest than we?d expect, we will stay away from this one. BEST BET: Indians at -160 or less.
Cincinnati at Detroit (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
This shapes up as a tremendous intra-Ohio matchup between two teams that no one expected to contend, but who now find themselves in the thick of their respective division races. Our sense is that while the Reds may be fading a bit, we?ll get tremendous value on them here. Cincinnati checks in with a 9-4 (+$490) record vs. lefties, averaging a hefty 6.9 runs per game. They?ve made money on the road (11-7, +$690) And while the Tigers are having a solid start, the fact that they?ve averaged a mere 3.3 runs per game vs. lefthanders could prove problematic this weekend at Comerica Park. We?ll look for get some value on the visitor in this series. BEST BET: Reds vs. lefthanders/Lefthanders vs. the Tigers.
Baltimore at Washington (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Nationals suffered some brutal ninth inning losses last week, and they are limping along with a sub-par, overworked bullpen. And with a 3-10 record at RFK Stadium so far (-$895), we don?t expect to see bettors lining up to back them. But the Orioles? pitching has been horrendous (5.58 ERA, 2nd highest in the majors), and all five starters have struggled in their most recent appearances. This wasn?t supposed to happen when Leo Mazzone signed on as pitching coach. We?ll steer clear of this one for now. BEST BET: None.
Boston at Philadelphia (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Reds Sox are catching a hot Phillies team (13-1, +$1270 last 14 games) and they aren?t much of a road team to begin with. The Phillies are dominating righthanders (17-10, +$415 with 5.1 runs per game), and they?ll probably catch underdog prices against Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, both of whom have looked shaky in recent starts (Schilling 6.75, Beckett 5.25 last two). The home team has gotten solid work lately by Brett Myers (2.73 overall) and Jon Lieber (2.30 last two), both of whom should see action. BEST BET: Myers/Lieber/Phillies vs. Schilling & Beckett.
N.Y. Yankees at N.Y. Mets (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The first place Mets have been winning games this year that they would have lost in the past, and that could spell trouble for the Yankees, who are sputtering offensively. The only scored seven runs in a three game set vs. Oakland, so the absence of Matsui and Sheffield is taking its toll. The Mets are getting outstanding pitching (3.87 ERA) and given the Yankees? 4-11 (-$1205) record vs. righthanders in night games, we?ll go with the surging home team at any price when that situation arises this weekend. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Yankees in night games.
Florida at Tampa Bay (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Devil Rays don?t have much to boast about, but their 15-23 record actually looks respectable next to the Marlins? horrendous 11-24 (-$950) mark. We?re surprised to see Tampa?s team BA has dropped to .230, not what we expected from a team that was expected to score runs while struggling on the mound. They?ve got a pair of solid lefties in the rotation right now (Scott Kazmir $675, 2.94 ERA and Mark Hendrickson 3.24) and we expect both these two to see action. BEST BET: Kazmir/Hendrickson.
Minnesota at Milwaukee (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Twins had a nice hot streak, culminating with a strong showing against the White Sox, taking 2 out of 3. But they?ve been horrible on the road this year (only 5-13, -$715) and could have their hands full vs. a hard hitting Milwaukee team that leads the NL in team BA (.273). Minnesota pitching has been a major problem this year (5.47 team ERA, 3rd highest in the AL) so stick with the home team in this series. They took 2 out of 3 from the Mets at Miller Park last weekend, and should be able to do the same against a far less formidable opponent. BEST BET: Brewers in all games.
Texas at Houston (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Astros are tough at home (16-5, +$755) but the Rangers have fared well on the road (10-5, +$780) so this could be a close one. Texas got plenty of rest last weekend, playing just six innings on Friday night then taking the rest of the weekend off, but they are coming off a four game set in New York, so caution is advised. We?re going to take a closer look at this one on game day, in the meantime we?ll pass. BEST BET: None.
St. Louis at Kansas City (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
As bad as the Royals have looked this year, they are a .500 team at home, and are actually turning a substantial profit vs. righthanders at Kaufman Stadium (+$900). They?ll be catching some huge prices this weekend, and they?ll miss Mark Mulder, the only southpaw in the St. Louis rotation. The Cardinals have lost money away from Busch Stadium (8-8, -$170) so grab those fat prices. If they can take 2 out of 3 we?ll clean up. BEST BET: Royals vs. righthanders.
Toronto at Colorado (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Blue Jays are hitting the ball well (.298 team BA, highest in the AL) and they?ve been at their best in night games (16-7, +$985, with 7.8 runs per game). We like what Colorado has achieved this year, but they are only 9-8 at Coors Field, with surprisingly low run production (only 4.2 runs per game). We?ll get back on the Rockies when they hit the road and are posted as big underdogs, but it looks like Toronto in this one. BEST BET: Blue Jays in night games.
San Francisco at Oakland (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
We?ve not had a good feeling about the Giants this year, and their woeful pitching (5.14 team ERA) confirms our suspicions. But the Athletics are notorious slow starters so now is the time to bet against them. Noah Lowry is back in the rotation and while his ERA is a bit high (4.11) the Giants have prevailed in all three of his starts (+$345) and Oakland is a team that doesn?t handle lefthanders all that well (only 2-6, -$445 with 3.5 runs per game). Take a shot with the SF southpaw when he takes his turn. BEST BET: Lowry.
San Diego at Seattle (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
We can?t figure out how the Padres are winning all these games! They?ve prevailed in a staggering 14 of their last 15 and are now 10-3 (+$815) vs. righthanders in road games. And all this despite a .244 team BA, 2nd lowest in the NL and only 24 HR?s on the season, the fewest in MLB. The Mariners are floundering at Safeco Field (only 9-13, -$570) so we?ll see if the hot visitor can continue their winning ways at bit longer. BEST BET: Padres vs. righthanders.
L.A. Angels at L.A. Dodgers (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
This series could be unpredictable, but we?re far more impressed with the Dodgers? starting rotation (2.57 ERA last 10 games) than with that of the Angels (6.46 ERA last 10). They?ve gotten solid work not just from Brad Penny (2.66) but from Derek Lowe (2.98), Bret Tomko (2.93) and Aaron Sele (1.98), journeymen hurlers who are flourishing at Chavez Ravine. The Angels lack a strong offense (.247 team BA, 3rd lowest in the league) and don?t look like a team that can repeat as AL West champs for a third straight year. Go with the home team throughout. BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.
Atlanta at Arizona (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Braves haven?t lost touch with the leaders in the NL East, but they are playing below their usual standards. They?ve been a very bad road team, particularly against righthanders (6-12, -$720) and they?ll be up against a tough one when Brandon Webb (+$385, 2.30 ERA) is on the mound. Arizona has shown significant improvement this year, though we would feel more comfortable if they were taking on lefthanders in this series (D?Backs 6.1 runs per game vs. southpaws). But since the Atlanta rotation is all-righty, we?ll limit ourselves to a play on the home team?s ace starter. BEST BET: Webb.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago W. Sox (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Cubs started the season well enough, but they?ve been enduring a brutal stretch (1-10, -$945 last 10 days with 2.5 runs per game and a 6.03 ERA among starters). Not a good thing when you are taking on the World Champions, who just happen to be your cross-town rivals. Despite a so-so recent road trip, the Sox are 14-5 at home (+$585) and should dispatch the fading Cubs without difficulty. But prices will be very high, so we?ll limit ourselves to a play on Mark Buehrle (+$335, 3.42 ERA), given the Cubs? difficulty facing lefties (3-7, -$565 with only 2.7 runs per game). BEST BET: Buehrle.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The good news for Pittsburgh is they are likely to miss C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee in this series (Pirates only 1-13, -$1280 vs. southpaws). The bad news is that they are only 3-17 on the road (-$1365), they average only 3.8 runs per game, and they?ll be taking on the best offense in baseball (.298 team BA). Unfortunately, the Indians have been slumping lately (2-8, -$965 last 10 days) so unless we see prices that are more modest than we?d expect, we will stay away from this one. BEST BET: Indians at -160 or less.
Cincinnati at Detroit (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
This shapes up as a tremendous intra-Ohio matchup between two teams that no one expected to contend, but who now find themselves in the thick of their respective division races. Our sense is that while the Reds may be fading a bit, we?ll get tremendous value on them here. Cincinnati checks in with a 9-4 (+$490) record vs. lefties, averaging a hefty 6.9 runs per game. They?ve made money on the road (11-7, +$690) And while the Tigers are having a solid start, the fact that they?ve averaged a mere 3.3 runs per game vs. lefthanders could prove problematic this weekend at Comerica Park. We?ll look for get some value on the visitor in this series. BEST BET: Reds vs. lefthanders/Lefthanders vs. the Tigers.
Baltimore at Washington (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Nationals suffered some brutal ninth inning losses last week, and they are limping along with a sub-par, overworked bullpen. And with a 3-10 record at RFK Stadium so far (-$895), we don?t expect to see bettors lining up to back them. But the Orioles? pitching has been horrendous (5.58 ERA, 2nd highest in the majors), and all five starters have struggled in their most recent appearances. This wasn?t supposed to happen when Leo Mazzone signed on as pitching coach. We?ll steer clear of this one for now. BEST BET: None.
Boston at Philadelphia (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Reds Sox are catching a hot Phillies team (13-1, +$1270 last 14 games) and they aren?t much of a road team to begin with. The Phillies are dominating righthanders (17-10, +$415 with 5.1 runs per game), and they?ll probably catch underdog prices against Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, both of whom have looked shaky in recent starts (Schilling 6.75, Beckett 5.25 last two). The home team has gotten solid work lately by Brett Myers (2.73 overall) and Jon Lieber (2.30 last two), both of whom should see action. BEST BET: Myers/Lieber/Phillies vs. Schilling & Beckett.
N.Y. Yankees at N.Y. Mets (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The first place Mets have been winning games this year that they would have lost in the past, and that could spell trouble for the Yankees, who are sputtering offensively. The only scored seven runs in a three game set vs. Oakland, so the absence of Matsui and Sheffield is taking its toll. The Mets are getting outstanding pitching (3.87 ERA) and given the Yankees? 4-11 (-$1205) record vs. righthanders in night games, we?ll go with the surging home team at any price when that situation arises this weekend. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Yankees in night games.
Florida at Tampa Bay (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Devil Rays don?t have much to boast about, but their 15-23 record actually looks respectable next to the Marlins? horrendous 11-24 (-$950) mark. We?re surprised to see Tampa?s team BA has dropped to .230, not what we expected from a team that was expected to score runs while struggling on the mound. They?ve got a pair of solid lefties in the rotation right now (Scott Kazmir $675, 2.94 ERA and Mark Hendrickson 3.24) and we expect both these two to see action. BEST BET: Kazmir/Hendrickson.
Minnesota at Milwaukee (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Twins had a nice hot streak, culminating with a strong showing against the White Sox, taking 2 out of 3. But they?ve been horrible on the road this year (only 5-13, -$715) and could have their hands full vs. a hard hitting Milwaukee team that leads the NL in team BA (.273). Minnesota pitching has been a major problem this year (5.47 team ERA, 3rd highest in the AL) so stick with the home team in this series. They took 2 out of 3 from the Mets at Miller Park last weekend, and should be able to do the same against a far less formidable opponent. BEST BET: Brewers in all games.
Texas at Houston (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Astros are tough at home (16-5, +$755) but the Rangers have fared well on the road (10-5, +$780) so this could be a close one. Texas got plenty of rest last weekend, playing just six innings on Friday night then taking the rest of the weekend off, but they are coming off a four game set in New York, so caution is advised. We?re going to take a closer look at this one on game day, in the meantime we?ll pass. BEST BET: None.
St. Louis at Kansas City (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
As bad as the Royals have looked this year, they are a .500 team at home, and are actually turning a substantial profit vs. righthanders at Kaufman Stadium (+$900). They?ll be catching some huge prices this weekend, and they?ll miss Mark Mulder, the only southpaw in the St. Louis rotation. The Cardinals have lost money away from Busch Stadium (8-8, -$170) so grab those fat prices. If they can take 2 out of 3 we?ll clean up. BEST BET: Royals vs. righthanders.
Toronto at Colorado (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Blue Jays are hitting the ball well (.298 team BA, highest in the AL) and they?ve been at their best in night games (16-7, +$985, with 7.8 runs per game). We like what Colorado has achieved this year, but they are only 9-8 at Coors Field, with surprisingly low run production (only 4.2 runs per game). We?ll get back on the Rockies when they hit the road and are posted as big underdogs, but it looks like Toronto in this one. BEST BET: Blue Jays in night games.
San Francisco at Oakland (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
We?ve not had a good feeling about the Giants this year, and their woeful pitching (5.14 team ERA) confirms our suspicions. But the Athletics are notorious slow starters so now is the time to bet against them. Noah Lowry is back in the rotation and while his ERA is a bit high (4.11) the Giants have prevailed in all three of his starts (+$345) and Oakland is a team that doesn?t handle lefthanders all that well (only 2-6, -$445 with 3.5 runs per game). Take a shot with the SF southpaw when he takes his turn. BEST BET: Lowry.
San Diego at Seattle (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
We can?t figure out how the Padres are winning all these games! They?ve prevailed in a staggering 14 of their last 15 and are now 10-3 (+$815) vs. righthanders in road games. And all this despite a .244 team BA, 2nd lowest in the NL and only 24 HR?s on the season, the fewest in MLB. The Mariners are floundering at Safeco Field (only 9-13, -$570) so we?ll see if the hot visitor can continue their winning ways at bit longer. BEST BET: Padres vs. righthanders.
L.A. Angels at L.A. Dodgers (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
This series could be unpredictable, but we?re far more impressed with the Dodgers? starting rotation (2.57 ERA last 10 games) than with that of the Angels (6.46 ERA last 10). They?ve gotten solid work not just from Brad Penny (2.66) but from Derek Lowe (2.98), Bret Tomko (2.93) and Aaron Sele (1.98), journeymen hurlers who are flourishing at Chavez Ravine. The Angels lack a strong offense (.247 team BA, 3rd lowest in the league) and don?t look like a team that can repeat as AL West champs for a third straight year. Go with the home team throughout. BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.
