FRI NOV 16
- Thread starter airportis
- Start date
Willy Blastoffs picks 11/16/07
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First 2 plays of the season
yesterday 0-0 +$000
overall 0-0 +$000
Today's plays are: all bets are $400
Ragin Cajuns +4 1/2 vs La Tch Blastoff line says game should ULL should be +7
UAB + 3 1/2 vs Florida State Blastoff line says FSU should be a 6 1/2 point favorite.
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First 2 plays of the season
yesterday 0-0 +$000
overall 0-0 +$000
Today's plays are: all bets are $400
Ragin Cajuns +4 1/2 vs La Tch Blastoff line says game should ULL should be +7
UAB + 3 1/2 vs Florida State Blastoff line says FSU should be a 6 1/2 point favorite.
With a moniker like this:
"I don't understand, if you think the line should be 5 but it's 10, why are you laying the 10?"
I would imagine its the opposite. Seems like an anticonsensus system. :shrug:
"I don't understand, if you think the line should be 5 but it's 10, why are you laying the 10?"
I would imagine its the opposite. Seems like an anticonsensus system. :shrug:
"Ragin Cajuns +4 1/2 vs La Tch Blastoff line says game should ULL should be +7
UAB + 3 1/2 vs Florida State Blastoff line says FSU should be a 6 1/2 point favorite."
this is saying ULL should be getting 7 but they're only getting 4.5...
FSU should be giving 6.5 but they're only giving 3.5... is this just written wrong? if you should be getting 7 and you're only getting 4.5 the play should be on the other side. am i the only one confused here?
UAB + 3 1/2 vs Florida State Blastoff line says FSU should be a 6 1/2 point favorite."
this is saying ULL should be getting 7 but they're only getting 4.5...
FSU should be giving 6.5 but they're only giving 3.5... is this just written wrong? if you should be getting 7 and you're only getting 4.5 the play should be on the other side. am i the only one confused here?
I will let Airportis or Billy explain the system to you.. I know it doesn't make sense by just looking at it,, but the system works...
Not an anticonsensus system like I thought.....
97% of the public on ULLAF
90% of the public on UAB
I read peoples posts that this system is sucessful . Lets see how it does. Make me a believer Mr. Blastoff!!!
GL!!
97% of the public on ULLAF
90% of the public on UAB
I read peoples posts that this system is sucessful . Lets see how it does. Make me a believer Mr. Blastoff!!!
GL!!
i believe it's successful, i think the write-up for the picks si just backwards. i think it's saying LATECH should be laying 7 but it only laying 4.5, right? so the strength of the play is 2.5 points, right?
Billy's System is based on the fact that the people making the lines are smarter than we are...basically. If Team A should be getting 5pts, but the line has them only getting 2pt, Billy feels that the books want you to take the favorite (since the favorite is only -2 and they should be -5). Billy feels that the books are very good at what they do (which they are) and goes on that side. He would take Team A even though his numbers say they should be +5. Sounds crazy...but it has worked successfully over the last few years. The trick is knowing when to start following and when to stop. I am following these two plays..however not placing much money on them because this seems early in the year for Billy....Airportis...is this earlier than the past couple of years?
The system has been very successful from week 2 or 3 through mid/late season. It usually hits a wall at somepoint....I think.
I hope this explains it for you. If not, let me know and I'd be happy to explain it a different way.
Craig
that did. very well. thanks. glad to see what's behind it. good luck to ya. i'm gonna be observing for a while and try to jump on when it's gettin hot.
thanks again
jason
thanks again
jason
Judging from the posted plays above, it would appear that a minimum differential in the current line from the "Blastoff" line would be 2 1/2 in order to qualify it as a play. Does the system grade plays or just list all selected opportunities as a "play"?
Correct with the ceiling difference being 7 1/2 then it becomes a no play. The system really kicks in when my qfactors start to filter out games.
