09:40 PM MLB [959] CIN REDS +127 ( B FINNEGAN -L / B SHIPLEY -R )
10:10 PM MLB [962] TOTAL u8-110 (CHI CUBS vrs LA DODGERS) ( M MONTGOMERY/NORRIS)
07:05 PM MLB [966] NY YANKEES -113 ( Y GALLARDO -R / L CESSA -R )
07:10 PM MLB [969] KC ROYALS +147 ( I KENNEDY -R / S WRIGHT -R )
07:10 PM MLB [972] DET TIGERS -1.5 +100 ( R NOLASCO -R / J VERLANDER -R )
08:10 PM MLB [977] SEA MARINERS +128 ( F HERNANDEZ -R / C SALE -L )
1 unit bet pays 91 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-141, -28.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
With Nova traded, Severino being a bigger disappointment than St. Anger, and Eovaldi out until 2018, Luis Cessa is getting his chance on the hill and he took full advantage against the Angels with a line of 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I'm going to make this one quick: don't pick up Cessa. The Yankees have one of the toughest schedules around ROS as they face a ton of AL Beast teams (Sawx, Jays, O's) and while Cessa has good velocity that touches mid 90s, I don't think his secondary stuff is all that good and his command needs work. There's a chance he sees more time in 2017, but I can't say I'm a fan of him like his teammate Green. Green is super cool.
Under is 30-12 in BAL last 42 overall.
Under is 7-2 in Gallardos last 9 starts overall.
Under is 15-6 in NYY last 21 games following a win.
New York Yankees -113
The New York Yankees had yesterday off, while the Baltimore Orioles completed their 4-game series with the Washington Nationals Thursday. That's a nice edge in rest, plus the Yankees are chasing down the Orioles for the final wild card spot in the American League, so this is a very important series for them.
I look for the Yankees to take advantage of their rest and get the job done in Game 1 tonight. I also like what I saw from Luis Cessa in his first start on August 20 as he pitched 6 shutout innings while allowing only 4 base runners in a 5-1 road victory over the Angels.
I'll gladly fade Yovani Gallardo, who is 4-5 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in 17 starts, including 2-4 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.656 WHIP in 10 road starts. Gallardo is also 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.297 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees.
The Yankees are 34-15 (+20.6 Units) against the money line after three straight games where they committed no errors over the last two seasons. Baltimore is 36-59 (-20.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last two seasons. The Orioles are 0-5 in Gallardo's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 2-8 in its last 10 vs. AL East opponents. New York is 11-4 in the last 15 home meetings in this series.
Gio Gonzalez - 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. Gio has been so inconsistent that I want to say Blame it on the Braves. But then I'd be ignoring his back-to-back 1 ER starts against the Giants not so long ago, and a 3.22 ERA over his last eight starts. Can't say I'm pumped for Gio, but as he gets easier opponents this should be overall fine
Rockies right-hander Jeff Hoffman lost after allowing seven runs (six earned) on seven hits and one walk with two strikeouts in four innings vs. the Cubs on Saturday.
The 23-year-old dropped his Major League debut against a punishing Cubs offense at Coors Field. Hoffman's name is worth monitoring, however, as he was the No. 52 prospect in baseball according MLB.com coming into the season. He showed potential in Triple-A this year, averaging more than a strikeout per inning over 22 starts while posting a 4.02 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Houston Astros -138
The Houston Astros have won 5 of their last 6 games overall and had Thursday off. The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off back-to-back wins over the Boston Red Sox and are primed for a letdown here, and they didn't have Thursday off like the Astros. Mike Fiers has been on his game at home this season, going 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 12 starts. Fiers is also 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in one lifetime start vs. Tampa Bay, which came in a 4-3 victory on June 11 this season. Drew Smyly has been awful on the road for the Rays, going 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 12 starts. Smyly has never beaten the Astros, going 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 2.350 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against them. The Rays are 7-20 in their last 27 road games. The Astros are 26-9 in their last 35 vs. a team with a losing record. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in Smyly's last 5 road starts. The Astros are 5-1 in Fiers' last 6 home starts.
Adam Morgan - 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. [last start stats] Every captain has his day.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -117
Ryan Vogelsong is making another comeback, this time after being hit in the face by a pitch in May, and he's had three out of four quality starts in August. Vogelsong allowed three runs and three hits in six innings his last outing. Pittsburgh lost his three best pitched games due to scoring a total of four runs and won his other start 8-5 at San Francisco when he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. Matt Garza is 4-5 with a 5.27 ERA and he comes off a game in which he was knocked around for six runs (five earned) and nine hits in 3 2/3 innings although Milwaukee managed to win at Seattle 7-6 on Sunday. In two appearances against the Pirates this season, Garza has allowed seven runs (five earned) and 12 hits in 10 innings. Pittsburgh beat the Brewers 3-2 in 10 innings on Thursday for its fifth road win in a row.
Minnesota +217 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays charmed season may be coming to an end. Without going into detail, Toronto has some decent parts of course but they have been far more fortunate than good. Losing two of three to an Angels team that lost 14 of 16 coming into the series might just be the start of Toronto?s demise. Hell, the Jays even lost last night to Jered Weaver and his 82 MPH fastball and 5.72 ERA (6.18 xERA). The Jays scored twice on Weaver and it came on a bomb.
Now the Jays are feeling the heat. Prior to last night, Weaver?s swing and miss rate on the year was a measly 6%. Against Toronto last night, Weaver?s swing and miss rate was an elite 13%. We can assure you that Weaver wasn?t better last night than he?s been in previous starts. Toronto?s hitters are helping pitchers out. They are gripping the bat tighter and are swinging at stuff they shouldn?t be. They are also trying to go deep far too often instead of just making contact. Now another team comes into town with nothing to lose and wanting to make life miserable for a contender.
The Twins have made a host of changes to their roster all year and one of the benefactors was Pat Dean, who has both started and pitched in relief. Dean was a third-round pick in the 2010 draft due to his outstanding command and feel for pitching. Not much has changed over the years, as he continues to exhibit plus location, but he doesn?t throw with great velocity and he is an extreme pitch-to-contact guy. Dean?s fastball mostly sits in the 87-91 mph range, but he commands it well and moves it around the zone. He?ll mix in both a slider and curveball with the curve being the better of the two. His best offering is his deceptive change-up that he uses to neutralize right-handed batters. He?s spent his entire career in the starting rotation so this is where he is most comfortable. Dean has appeared in just 11 games this year with six of those coming as a starter. His elite groundball rate of 59% figures to play well in this park. In 47 overall innings, he has a decent BB/K split of 15/36 but a strong 67% first-pitch strike rate suggests his control should be better. Dude can throw strikes when he wants to. Over his last seven frames, Dean has walked none while striking out nine. Lastly, current Jays have three hits in 20 career AB?s against Dean for a combined BA of .150
The equation for Francisco Liriano?s success or failure is not a complicated one. If Liriano is throwing strikes, he can be difficult to hit. When he?s not throwing strikes, trouble looms. There isn?t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which Liriano will show up here but what we know for sure is that he?s not throwing strikes about 50% of the time, which makes him a HUGE risk in this price range. Liriano has 13 BB?s over his past 26 innings. He leads the majors with an astonishing 75 walks in 131 innings. His WHIP since becoming a Blue Jay is a troubling 1.77 and his xERA is 4.62. So yeah, Liriano and the Jays can obviously win this one but do you really want to lay better than 2-1 to find out? Toronto continues to be the most overpriced team in MLB.
Oakland +185 over ST. LOUIS
Ross Detwiler is not on our radar. We have nothing good to say about him whatsoever. Detwiler has been simply awful for two straight seasons and wouldn't even be sniffing the majors again this year if not for the rash of injuries to Oakland starters. He started three games for the A?s and Oakland is 1-2 in those starts after Detwiler threw an 8-inning, six-hit shutout against the Orioles of all teams. Detwiler subsequently got whacked by the South Side and the Rangers with the latter two being on the road in hitter?s parks. He thrived at home in his friendly pitcher?s park. Detwiler?s best asset is his groundball rate of 52% but this wager has absolutely nothing to do with backing Ross Detwiler.
What we have here is a rookie pitcher making his third career start priced like he?s Carlos Martinez. That cannot be. Luke Weaver surrendered nine hits in five innings in his last start in Philadelphia. He lasted only four innings in his first start at Wrigley. Weaver?s oppBA is .342 and his WHIP is 1.78. Indeed the sample size is small and Weaver does bring an outstanding minor league pedigree with him but so what. History is lined with hundreds and hundreds of starters with minor-league pedigree that could never make it at this level. There?s also some dispute among scouts if Weaver truly has a plus pitch. He?s not a big guy either at 6?2?, and a lithe 170 pounds. Pitching at this level is nothing like the minors. Contrary to public belief, Oakland is not an easy out. Only two teams in the majors have struck out fewer times than Oakland so this is a team that puts the ball in play and just missed sweeping the Indians. In fact, in that just completed three-game set against the Tribe, Oakland allowed just three runs total while scoring 14 on its own. There are times when the price dictates the play. Luke Weaver is not established enough, nor has he done anything to be priced in this range
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
Play: Kansas City Royals +150
The Kansas City Royals are riding a red hot 10-1 run and are set for the first of a three-game set against the Boston Red Sox on Friday night. Kansas City will square off against knuckleballer Steven Wright who comes off the disabled list to start the series opener at Fenway Park.
Boston is coming off a successful 7-4 road trip but have to deal with a team that is playing, arguably, the best of any franchise in baseball the last two weeks and have pulled within four games of the Orioles for the second wild card spot.
The reigning World Series champs send veteran right-hander Ian Kennedy (8-9, 3.58 ERA) to the historic Fenway mound to oppose knuckler Steven Wright (13-5, 3.01).
Kansas City
Kennedy stymied one of the more successful second half teams in his last start, the Minnesota Twins, nearly going the distance working eight scoreless frames of four-hit baseball and doing so without walking a batter. Kennedy faces the challenge of being a llyball pitcher in hitter-friendly Fenway Park but the right-hander is on a sick run of success. Kennedy has recorded five straight turns on the hill of at least six innings in which he has allowed one earned run or fewer. This Royals record for such feats places him in a category with former Royals lefty Larry Gura who matched the aforementioned mark 35 years ago, back in 1981.
Boston
Wright comes off the DL with a 5-0 record over his last lucky-seven starts. His last start against Kansas City came back in mid-May when he allowed three runs and five hits in a no-decision. It isn't an exaggeration to state that Wright has outpitched his peripherals and his 3.01 ERA is nothing short of squaring off against a forecast of negative regression. The Boston knuckleballer has not lost since late June but in his last four turns at Fenway he has allowed a whopping 20 runs.
It is always difficult to predict how effective a knuckleball pitcher can or will be in any one outing but historically pitchers who throw a knuckleball as their primary pitch have scuffled in their first start off a 15-day disabled stint. Wright's 4.50-plus xFIP doesn't match his current ERA and the right-hander has managed to maintain an unsustainable 25 percent hard contact rate. Wright has, unequivocally outpitched his peripherals. His 5.2% HR/FB ratio is just another of his underlying stats that will regress in the August and September heat, especially at Fenway, whereas already mentioned, has surrendered 20 runs in his last four outings.
Outlook
The money line in tonight's event has substantial value when backing Kansas City. Their lone loss in the last 11 games came against Miami ace Jose Fernandez, a game that the Royals could have and should have won had they executed with runners in scoring position, and this as +200 underdogs.
It isn't a fair assessment to use FIP or xFIP when evaluating knuckleball pitchers. There are exceptions to FIP and historically knuckleball pitchers have outperform their FIP. No matter what kind of charts, graphs and calculation you use to examine a players surface numbers to that of their underlying peripherals there will be specific players that simply don?t fit perfectly into any one model.
But offering the Royals a buck and a-half tonight with a matchup of Kennedy versus a Royals club that has an aggressive yet successful history against Knuckleball pitchers makes tonight's MLB Free Pick to Click a no-brainer.
Item: It is more motivation than matchups when the spread is 20+
California/Hawaii will not have me reach into pocket, but it is a proper intro to the college football season ? welcome to the land of non-competitive games, and the particular point spread aspects they bring. So let?s use this matchup as an example of what to look for, and then in a few minutes it will be time to step in and bet one.
When we evaluate games in the higher pointspread ranges, let?s say 20 or more (and while this one is showing a lot of 19.5 the logic fits), the major focus goes to the intent of the coaches. The game outcome will rarely be close, and much of the second half in these affairs is played out with the scoreboard winner already being known. It leads to a point spread equation in which one particular coach, the favorite in the game, carries much more power than his opponent. In many of these settings it can come down to a simple notion of how much the favorite wants to win by, the underdog not being good enough to be a factor in the equation.
That is not an easy thing for the oddsmakers to price. They can evaluate disparities in talent and depth in setting the line, but can struggle to measure intent. Hence, that becomes a prime task for those of us trying to make money across the betting boards. So instead of being theoretical, let?s go to Sydney.
This line is high based on how I have the teams rated, should they both go all-out for the full 60 minutes. I am not betting Hawaii because that may not be the way the game plays out, although I would have taken a +14 for the First Half had that ever appeared. What is a prime issue tonight? The coaches motivation in terms of player rotation.
Item: Cal will go hard all the way, but will Hawaii?
Cal is rebuilding, with a new offensive package under OC Jake Spavital that will slow things down a bit after the Jared Goff years, and in fact is a better fit for this roster, which has depth and experience at OL and RB to power up a ground game. The defense has a lot of work to do, a young unit made worse by Hardy Nickerson transferring and Demariay Drew not making it back from injury. But the Golden Bears are allowed to go hard for the full game, with a bye week next. Since he needs to develop his team for a tough slate ahead (there is not a single game that the Bears can circle as a definite win after this one), Dykes can even aim for the confidence that a scoreboard blowout would bring.
It is a much different case for Nick Rolovich, who faces arguably the worst two-game cycle to open a head coaching career in NCAA annals. Not only is this a long trip bringing awkward logistics, but Rolovich has to then get his team to Ann Arbor to face Michigan next Saturday, a case of a program putting a paycheck for that game ahead of the best interest of the players.
So now the conundrum for Rolovich. He has his full roster in Sydney, much like for a bowl game. Next week only the traveling squad goes to Michigan, reducing the roster by more than 25 percent. If the task is to develop a team to compete in the Mountain West later, since these first two games aren?t going to be won on the scoreboard anyway, how much does that impact Rolovich?s managing of the rotation tonight? Does he come in with a projection of how much he wants his starters to play over these first two games combined, and work within that limitation? Does the fact that he has 25-30 players available tonight that won?t be next week make him want to get them some playing time and experience?
This takes us to one of the keys for understanding high point spread games, and it will lead to a phrase that Old Joe and I used often through the years ? ?All they have to do is get to the spread?. That is a reference I would make to him on some of these games and nothing more needed to be said ? we would be betting the favorite because the back-door was out of play. It often is for some of these underdogs, and when you can isolate that then you have something.
Think of it this way. An underdog of +10 that is losing by 14 is in a much different frame of mind than an underdog of +20 that is losing by 24. Hence why it is not uncommon for back-door covers in the lower spread ranges, the trailing team still having the spirit to compete to win the game, but when you track NCAA results closely you find that back-doors are rare for the higher spreads. Once a coach can no longer win a game it changes his approach to player rotation and play calling, and one of the facts of life in these games is that the talent gap for Reserve vs. Reserve is often even wider than Starter vs. Starter.
So Hawaii can compete tonight, but there is a question as to whether the Warriors will make that the full-game goal. Should Rolovich find his team down by 17 in the fourth quarter they would still be within the spread, but out of reach of the outright win, and at that point his focus is allowed to shift to thinking more about developing his team for later, rather than getting the best possible scoreboard result this evening. Hence, no bet.
But there is one coming up on the Week #1 board that does go into pocket, and going into deeper detail will help incorporate some general handicapping notions on this type of game?
In the Sights, NCAA Week #1?
If the oddsmakers price the talent gap properly it can often bring us a setting in which there are motivational issues on each sideline that can be put into play, and I believe we have that next Saturday with #171 South Alabama (Noon Eastern) taking a generous +31 at Mississippi State. Not only can both sides of this equation work, but the starting time being moved up to 11 AM in Starkville makes it a far less hostile environment for the Jaguars than it could have been. Value extends down to +28 in this one.
Dan Mullen is one of the better coaches in all of college football going 55-35 at State despite coming from the worst recruiting outpost in the daunting SEC West. And Mullen is savvy enough to know that the scoreboard margin here doesn?t mean a damn thing for this program ? with the SEC opener up vs. South Carolina next week, and then a trip to LSU, this is merely a ?take care of business? setting, with the key cogs not playing much more than they have to, the HC looking at the scoreboard more to see the clock ticking than the points.
There are issues with some of those keys, however, which is a plus for our purposes here. Dak Prescott has quickly shown the NFL just how good he is, and after three seasons of his leading the Bulldog offense there is a major downgrade at the position, especially with the QB derby having four players in the hunt when spring practice began, which meant no one getting enough reps with the first team offense. Mullen could only reduce that to three in fall camp, and he will not name a starter from the Damian Williams/Nick Fitzgerald/Nick Tiano trio until Monday. Even then Mullen states that the battle is not over - ?The problem is we come out Monday, OK, this guy is ready to start. Now we transition to game planning and they really don?t handle it well. I might have to flip and go back. The other aspect is getting into a game. Even though a guy?s a starter we?ll make sure that they?re ready when the lights come on,? Mullen said. ?If he collapses, another guy really is much better when the lights come on and we?ve got to look at that aspect of the evaluation, too.?
This offense has gone from being set for three seasons to an awkward open audition ? the three challengers have been splitting practice reps since fall camp opened (Elijah Staley, who was in the mix in the spring, transferred out), meaning that no one got nearly enough time with the first team, which makes it difficult to explode out of the gate. But the Bulldogs don?t just have an issue on offense, the CB position has also become a major problem. The secondary was already having to replace Taveze Calhoun and Will Redmond, who are on NFL training camp rosters trying to earn Sunday paychecks, but expected starters Tolando Cleveland and Cedric Jiles have both been lost with recent injuries, scrambling up that position. As such, Mullen might consider a scoreboard outcome far below this pointspread to still be a ?win? in the grand scheme of his 2016 purposes, and note that it would not be something new ? he is 3-7 ATS laying -20 or more in non-conference games. As long-time readers know I rarely talk about trends, especially those with small samples, but the Big Chalk/Big Dog roles do get seriously charted because so much of that can be attributed to a coaches intent.
South Alabama brings the ideal focus for a big dog in this range ? the Jaguars have talked openly about how getting to play an SEC team in the opener brings a different energy to fall practice. The talent is just good enough to not be overwhelmed, and in particular there is a game planning consideration that brings the kind of factor that makes college football unique ? the sort of edges that are not priced into the line.
Kane Wommack is the new South Alabama defensive coordinator, and the youngest in the nation at the age of 28. That age might be an issue at another time, but not here, because of a pedigree that matters ? his father Dave is a long-time veteran that has been the DC at Mississippi the past four seasons, where Kane served as a grad assistant a couple of years ago.
Ole Miss, of course, is the biggest rival for State. The elder Wommack does not just game plan one week out of every year when facing the Bulldogs, but because of the magnitude of the rivalry likely thinks about the Mullen playbook for much of the off-season. So you can just imagine this scene around a picnic table on one of those hot and humid summer evenings ? ?Daddy what is the best way for us to game plan against State?? And the elder Wommack twists off a crayfish tail and says ?Well son, here are some of the things that have worked for us??
South Alabama has no chance to win this game, but with State lacking any interest in winning by five TDs, and the Jaguars bringing a greater sense of purpose than usual in this point spread range, there is value on backing the underdog to compete.
In the Sights, Friday NFL?
There is only one game on the entire NFL board in which 45 is a ?win? number for Under bettors, and I believe that brings an opportunity to step in and take advantage, with #262 49ers/Packers Under (10:00 Eastern) going into pocket. The QB rotation does not call for it, and while Chip Kelly has indeed been speeding things up with the 49ers, tonight he runs squarely into Mike McCarthy wanting to slow things down. Value extends down to 45.
We should get our first look at Colin Kaepernick this evening, which means likely rusty play, but even without rust mediocre play anyway. And there will be the only pre-season work from Aaron Rodgers tonight, but don?t expect a lot of it ? with Brett Hundley still unable to go the last thing the Packers want is for Rodgers to be taking hits.
As for the tempo, this marks the first of four straight road games for Green Bay, including trips to Jacksonville and Minnesota, and because of the last kickoff time (several players commented that it is right at bed-time for them in the pre-season), McCarthy may be in a particular mood to just shut this one down in the second half, with as few snaps as possible, and then have his team get back to Wisconsin.
Steelers / Saints Over 44.5
A game in which the role players will play a decent amount has me on the over for this one....Saints defense hasn't been good for a decent amount of time now..I doubt it has gotten a big upgrade from the last few years...Steelers don't care much about the preseason, but only 17 points this preseason might give them reason to force the issue...The starters have contributed next to nothing this preseason and some momentum going into the preseason finale would be wise IMO....Saints might actually benefit from a vanilla game plan from time to time from the Pitt defense...Pitt defensive teams has much more work then the offense..Keeping them healthy might be the way to go here for Tomlin..I expect the Pitt defense to rest guys a little earlier here..Both teams like to pass and I think we see plenty of that here..Weakness for these teams is the pass defense...Last year Pitt ranked 3rd worst at 30th in the league...Saints ranked 2nd worst at 31st in the league..I didn't see much of an upgrade in those areas to think they improve enough to make them jump up big this year..Small wager for myself here...I'm ready for the regular season already !!
Cal vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii
We are seeing some great value here with the Rainbow Warriors catching almost 3 TD?s. The books really have no choice here but to inflate this line. The betting public has a horrible time backing teams like Hawaii, who have been so bad for so long. On top of that, the Warriors only managed 17.6 ppg last year, while giving up 35.6 ppg. However, I believe we are going to see major improvements offensively in 2016 for Hawaii. New head coach Nick Rolovich is bringing back the spread attack. Something the team thrived with when he was the OC here back on 2010 and 2011. It's also had success the last 4 years in Nevada. You also have to take into consideration that Cal is not a great defensive team. The Bears allowed 30.7 ppg and 454 ypg last year. They only have 4 starters back on that side of the ball, with each of their top 6 tacklers no longer around. The big question is how will Hawaii?s defense keep Cal?s high-powered offense in check. Well, it will help that the Bears will no longer have Jared Goff at quarterback. Losing the No. 1 overall pick in the draft is going to have negative impact on the offense. Cal did bring in Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb, but he?s no Goff. Keep in mind that the Bears are installing a new offense. However, the biggest key is the weapons lost at receiver. Cal?s top 6 passing options from last year are all gone. There?s going to be little chemistry between Webb and the new starters. Lastly, you have to remember where this game is being played. This is a long way for both teams to travel. You also have to factor in that teams aren?t typically sharp in their opener away from home. The sloppier the game, the better chance Hawaii has of sticking around and keeping it close. Rainbow Warriors are 21-8 ATS in the first 2 weeks of the season since 1992. That includes 5 straight covers in their opener. All against Pac-12 teams.
10:10 PM MLB [962] TOTAL u8-110 (CHI CUBS vrs LA DODGERS) ( M MONTGOMERY/NORRIS)
07:05 PM MLB [966] NY YANKEES -113 ( Y GALLARDO -R / L CESSA -R )
07:10 PM MLB [969] KC ROYALS +147 ( I KENNEDY -R / S WRIGHT -R )
07:10 PM MLB [972] DET TIGERS -1.5 +100 ( R NOLASCO -R / J VERLANDER -R )
08:10 PM MLB [977] SEA MARINERS +128 ( F HERNANDEZ -R / C SALE -L )
1 unit bet pays 91 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-141, -28.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
With Nova traded, Severino being a bigger disappointment than St. Anger, and Eovaldi out until 2018, Luis Cessa is getting his chance on the hill and he took full advantage against the Angels with a line of 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I'm going to make this one quick: don't pick up Cessa. The Yankees have one of the toughest schedules around ROS as they face a ton of AL Beast teams (Sawx, Jays, O's) and while Cessa has good velocity that touches mid 90s, I don't think his secondary stuff is all that good and his command needs work. There's a chance he sees more time in 2017, but I can't say I'm a fan of him like his teammate Green. Green is super cool.
Under is 30-12 in BAL last 42 overall.
Under is 7-2 in Gallardos last 9 starts overall.
Under is 15-6 in NYY last 21 games following a win.
New York Yankees -113
The New York Yankees had yesterday off, while the Baltimore Orioles completed their 4-game series with the Washington Nationals Thursday. That's a nice edge in rest, plus the Yankees are chasing down the Orioles for the final wild card spot in the American League, so this is a very important series for them.
I look for the Yankees to take advantage of their rest and get the job done in Game 1 tonight. I also like what I saw from Luis Cessa in his first start on August 20 as he pitched 6 shutout innings while allowing only 4 base runners in a 5-1 road victory over the Angels.
I'll gladly fade Yovani Gallardo, who is 4-5 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in 17 starts, including 2-4 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.656 WHIP in 10 road starts. Gallardo is also 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.297 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees.
The Yankees are 34-15 (+20.6 Units) against the money line after three straight games where they committed no errors over the last two seasons. Baltimore is 36-59 (-20.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last two seasons. The Orioles are 0-5 in Gallardo's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 2-8 in its last 10 vs. AL East opponents. New York is 11-4 in the last 15 home meetings in this series.
Gio Gonzalez - 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. Gio has been so inconsistent that I want to say Blame it on the Braves. But then I'd be ignoring his back-to-back 1 ER starts against the Giants not so long ago, and a 3.22 ERA over his last eight starts. Can't say I'm pumped for Gio, but as he gets easier opponents this should be overall fine
Rockies right-hander Jeff Hoffman lost after allowing seven runs (six earned) on seven hits and one walk with two strikeouts in four innings vs. the Cubs on Saturday.
The 23-year-old dropped his Major League debut against a punishing Cubs offense at Coors Field. Hoffman's name is worth monitoring, however, as he was the No. 52 prospect in baseball according MLB.com coming into the season. He showed potential in Triple-A this year, averaging more than a strikeout per inning over 22 starts while posting a 4.02 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Houston Astros -138
The Houston Astros have won 5 of their last 6 games overall and had Thursday off. The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off back-to-back wins over the Boston Red Sox and are primed for a letdown here, and they didn't have Thursday off like the Astros. Mike Fiers has been on his game at home this season, going 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 12 starts. Fiers is also 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in one lifetime start vs. Tampa Bay, which came in a 4-3 victory on June 11 this season. Drew Smyly has been awful on the road for the Rays, going 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 12 starts. Smyly has never beaten the Astros, going 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 2.350 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against them. The Rays are 7-20 in their last 27 road games. The Astros are 26-9 in their last 35 vs. a team with a losing record. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in Smyly's last 5 road starts. The Astros are 5-1 in Fiers' last 6 home starts.
Adam Morgan - 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. [last start stats] Every captain has his day.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -117
Ryan Vogelsong is making another comeback, this time after being hit in the face by a pitch in May, and he's had three out of four quality starts in August. Vogelsong allowed three runs and three hits in six innings his last outing. Pittsburgh lost his three best pitched games due to scoring a total of four runs and won his other start 8-5 at San Francisco when he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. Matt Garza is 4-5 with a 5.27 ERA and he comes off a game in which he was knocked around for six runs (five earned) and nine hits in 3 2/3 innings although Milwaukee managed to win at Seattle 7-6 on Sunday. In two appearances against the Pirates this season, Garza has allowed seven runs (five earned) and 12 hits in 10 innings. Pittsburgh beat the Brewers 3-2 in 10 innings on Thursday for its fifth road win in a row.
Minnesota +217 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays charmed season may be coming to an end. Without going into detail, Toronto has some decent parts of course but they have been far more fortunate than good. Losing two of three to an Angels team that lost 14 of 16 coming into the series might just be the start of Toronto?s demise. Hell, the Jays even lost last night to Jered Weaver and his 82 MPH fastball and 5.72 ERA (6.18 xERA). The Jays scored twice on Weaver and it came on a bomb.
Now the Jays are feeling the heat. Prior to last night, Weaver?s swing and miss rate on the year was a measly 6%. Against Toronto last night, Weaver?s swing and miss rate was an elite 13%. We can assure you that Weaver wasn?t better last night than he?s been in previous starts. Toronto?s hitters are helping pitchers out. They are gripping the bat tighter and are swinging at stuff they shouldn?t be. They are also trying to go deep far too often instead of just making contact. Now another team comes into town with nothing to lose and wanting to make life miserable for a contender.
The Twins have made a host of changes to their roster all year and one of the benefactors was Pat Dean, who has both started and pitched in relief. Dean was a third-round pick in the 2010 draft due to his outstanding command and feel for pitching. Not much has changed over the years, as he continues to exhibit plus location, but he doesn?t throw with great velocity and he is an extreme pitch-to-contact guy. Dean?s fastball mostly sits in the 87-91 mph range, but he commands it well and moves it around the zone. He?ll mix in both a slider and curveball with the curve being the better of the two. His best offering is his deceptive change-up that he uses to neutralize right-handed batters. He?s spent his entire career in the starting rotation so this is where he is most comfortable. Dean has appeared in just 11 games this year with six of those coming as a starter. His elite groundball rate of 59% figures to play well in this park. In 47 overall innings, he has a decent BB/K split of 15/36 but a strong 67% first-pitch strike rate suggests his control should be better. Dude can throw strikes when he wants to. Over his last seven frames, Dean has walked none while striking out nine. Lastly, current Jays have three hits in 20 career AB?s against Dean for a combined BA of .150
The equation for Francisco Liriano?s success or failure is not a complicated one. If Liriano is throwing strikes, he can be difficult to hit. When he?s not throwing strikes, trouble looms. There isn?t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which Liriano will show up here but what we know for sure is that he?s not throwing strikes about 50% of the time, which makes him a HUGE risk in this price range. Liriano has 13 BB?s over his past 26 innings. He leads the majors with an astonishing 75 walks in 131 innings. His WHIP since becoming a Blue Jay is a troubling 1.77 and his xERA is 4.62. So yeah, Liriano and the Jays can obviously win this one but do you really want to lay better than 2-1 to find out? Toronto continues to be the most overpriced team in MLB.
Oakland +185 over ST. LOUIS
Ross Detwiler is not on our radar. We have nothing good to say about him whatsoever. Detwiler has been simply awful for two straight seasons and wouldn't even be sniffing the majors again this year if not for the rash of injuries to Oakland starters. He started three games for the A?s and Oakland is 1-2 in those starts after Detwiler threw an 8-inning, six-hit shutout against the Orioles of all teams. Detwiler subsequently got whacked by the South Side and the Rangers with the latter two being on the road in hitter?s parks. He thrived at home in his friendly pitcher?s park. Detwiler?s best asset is his groundball rate of 52% but this wager has absolutely nothing to do with backing Ross Detwiler.
What we have here is a rookie pitcher making his third career start priced like he?s Carlos Martinez. That cannot be. Luke Weaver surrendered nine hits in five innings in his last start in Philadelphia. He lasted only four innings in his first start at Wrigley. Weaver?s oppBA is .342 and his WHIP is 1.78. Indeed the sample size is small and Weaver does bring an outstanding minor league pedigree with him but so what. History is lined with hundreds and hundreds of starters with minor-league pedigree that could never make it at this level. There?s also some dispute among scouts if Weaver truly has a plus pitch. He?s not a big guy either at 6?2?, and a lithe 170 pounds. Pitching at this level is nothing like the minors. Contrary to public belief, Oakland is not an easy out. Only two teams in the majors have struck out fewer times than Oakland so this is a team that puts the ball in play and just missed sweeping the Indians. In fact, in that just completed three-game set against the Tribe, Oakland allowed just three runs total while scoring 14 on its own. There are times when the price dictates the play. Luke Weaver is not established enough, nor has he done anything to be priced in this range
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
Play: Kansas City Royals +150
The Kansas City Royals are riding a red hot 10-1 run and are set for the first of a three-game set against the Boston Red Sox on Friday night. Kansas City will square off against knuckleballer Steven Wright who comes off the disabled list to start the series opener at Fenway Park.
Boston is coming off a successful 7-4 road trip but have to deal with a team that is playing, arguably, the best of any franchise in baseball the last two weeks and have pulled within four games of the Orioles for the second wild card spot.
The reigning World Series champs send veteran right-hander Ian Kennedy (8-9, 3.58 ERA) to the historic Fenway mound to oppose knuckler Steven Wright (13-5, 3.01).
Kansas City
Kennedy stymied one of the more successful second half teams in his last start, the Minnesota Twins, nearly going the distance working eight scoreless frames of four-hit baseball and doing so without walking a batter. Kennedy faces the challenge of being a llyball pitcher in hitter-friendly Fenway Park but the right-hander is on a sick run of success. Kennedy has recorded five straight turns on the hill of at least six innings in which he has allowed one earned run or fewer. This Royals record for such feats places him in a category with former Royals lefty Larry Gura who matched the aforementioned mark 35 years ago, back in 1981.
Boston
Wright comes off the DL with a 5-0 record over his last lucky-seven starts. His last start against Kansas City came back in mid-May when he allowed three runs and five hits in a no-decision. It isn't an exaggeration to state that Wright has outpitched his peripherals and his 3.01 ERA is nothing short of squaring off against a forecast of negative regression. The Boston knuckleballer has not lost since late June but in his last four turns at Fenway he has allowed a whopping 20 runs.
It is always difficult to predict how effective a knuckleball pitcher can or will be in any one outing but historically pitchers who throw a knuckleball as their primary pitch have scuffled in their first start off a 15-day disabled stint. Wright's 4.50-plus xFIP doesn't match his current ERA and the right-hander has managed to maintain an unsustainable 25 percent hard contact rate. Wright has, unequivocally outpitched his peripherals. His 5.2% HR/FB ratio is just another of his underlying stats that will regress in the August and September heat, especially at Fenway, whereas already mentioned, has surrendered 20 runs in his last four outings.
Outlook
The money line in tonight's event has substantial value when backing Kansas City. Their lone loss in the last 11 games came against Miami ace Jose Fernandez, a game that the Royals could have and should have won had they executed with runners in scoring position, and this as +200 underdogs.
It isn't a fair assessment to use FIP or xFIP when evaluating knuckleball pitchers. There are exceptions to FIP and historically knuckleball pitchers have outperform their FIP. No matter what kind of charts, graphs and calculation you use to examine a players surface numbers to that of their underlying peripherals there will be specific players that simply don?t fit perfectly into any one model.
But offering the Royals a buck and a-half tonight with a matchup of Kennedy versus a Royals club that has an aggressive yet successful history against Knuckleball pitchers makes tonight's MLB Free Pick to Click a no-brainer.
Item: It is more motivation than matchups when the spread is 20+
California/Hawaii will not have me reach into pocket, but it is a proper intro to the college football season ? welcome to the land of non-competitive games, and the particular point spread aspects they bring. So let?s use this matchup as an example of what to look for, and then in a few minutes it will be time to step in and bet one.
When we evaluate games in the higher pointspread ranges, let?s say 20 or more (and while this one is showing a lot of 19.5 the logic fits), the major focus goes to the intent of the coaches. The game outcome will rarely be close, and much of the second half in these affairs is played out with the scoreboard winner already being known. It leads to a point spread equation in which one particular coach, the favorite in the game, carries much more power than his opponent. In many of these settings it can come down to a simple notion of how much the favorite wants to win by, the underdog not being good enough to be a factor in the equation.
That is not an easy thing for the oddsmakers to price. They can evaluate disparities in talent and depth in setting the line, but can struggle to measure intent. Hence, that becomes a prime task for those of us trying to make money across the betting boards. So instead of being theoretical, let?s go to Sydney.
This line is high based on how I have the teams rated, should they both go all-out for the full 60 minutes. I am not betting Hawaii because that may not be the way the game plays out, although I would have taken a +14 for the First Half had that ever appeared. What is a prime issue tonight? The coaches motivation in terms of player rotation.
Item: Cal will go hard all the way, but will Hawaii?
Cal is rebuilding, with a new offensive package under OC Jake Spavital that will slow things down a bit after the Jared Goff years, and in fact is a better fit for this roster, which has depth and experience at OL and RB to power up a ground game. The defense has a lot of work to do, a young unit made worse by Hardy Nickerson transferring and Demariay Drew not making it back from injury. But the Golden Bears are allowed to go hard for the full game, with a bye week next. Since he needs to develop his team for a tough slate ahead (there is not a single game that the Bears can circle as a definite win after this one), Dykes can even aim for the confidence that a scoreboard blowout would bring.
It is a much different case for Nick Rolovich, who faces arguably the worst two-game cycle to open a head coaching career in NCAA annals. Not only is this a long trip bringing awkward logistics, but Rolovich has to then get his team to Ann Arbor to face Michigan next Saturday, a case of a program putting a paycheck for that game ahead of the best interest of the players.
So now the conundrum for Rolovich. He has his full roster in Sydney, much like for a bowl game. Next week only the traveling squad goes to Michigan, reducing the roster by more than 25 percent. If the task is to develop a team to compete in the Mountain West later, since these first two games aren?t going to be won on the scoreboard anyway, how much does that impact Rolovich?s managing of the rotation tonight? Does he come in with a projection of how much he wants his starters to play over these first two games combined, and work within that limitation? Does the fact that he has 25-30 players available tonight that won?t be next week make him want to get them some playing time and experience?
This takes us to one of the keys for understanding high point spread games, and it will lead to a phrase that Old Joe and I used often through the years ? ?All they have to do is get to the spread?. That is a reference I would make to him on some of these games and nothing more needed to be said ? we would be betting the favorite because the back-door was out of play. It often is for some of these underdogs, and when you can isolate that then you have something.
Think of it this way. An underdog of +10 that is losing by 14 is in a much different frame of mind than an underdog of +20 that is losing by 24. Hence why it is not uncommon for back-door covers in the lower spread ranges, the trailing team still having the spirit to compete to win the game, but when you track NCAA results closely you find that back-doors are rare for the higher spreads. Once a coach can no longer win a game it changes his approach to player rotation and play calling, and one of the facts of life in these games is that the talent gap for Reserve vs. Reserve is often even wider than Starter vs. Starter.
So Hawaii can compete tonight, but there is a question as to whether the Warriors will make that the full-game goal. Should Rolovich find his team down by 17 in the fourth quarter they would still be within the spread, but out of reach of the outright win, and at that point his focus is allowed to shift to thinking more about developing his team for later, rather than getting the best possible scoreboard result this evening. Hence, no bet.
But there is one coming up on the Week #1 board that does go into pocket, and going into deeper detail will help incorporate some general handicapping notions on this type of game?
In the Sights, NCAA Week #1?
If the oddsmakers price the talent gap properly it can often bring us a setting in which there are motivational issues on each sideline that can be put into play, and I believe we have that next Saturday with #171 South Alabama (Noon Eastern) taking a generous +31 at Mississippi State. Not only can both sides of this equation work, but the starting time being moved up to 11 AM in Starkville makes it a far less hostile environment for the Jaguars than it could have been. Value extends down to +28 in this one.
Dan Mullen is one of the better coaches in all of college football going 55-35 at State despite coming from the worst recruiting outpost in the daunting SEC West. And Mullen is savvy enough to know that the scoreboard margin here doesn?t mean a damn thing for this program ? with the SEC opener up vs. South Carolina next week, and then a trip to LSU, this is merely a ?take care of business? setting, with the key cogs not playing much more than they have to, the HC looking at the scoreboard more to see the clock ticking than the points.
There are issues with some of those keys, however, which is a plus for our purposes here. Dak Prescott has quickly shown the NFL just how good he is, and after three seasons of his leading the Bulldog offense there is a major downgrade at the position, especially with the QB derby having four players in the hunt when spring practice began, which meant no one getting enough reps with the first team offense. Mullen could only reduce that to three in fall camp, and he will not name a starter from the Damian Williams/Nick Fitzgerald/Nick Tiano trio until Monday. Even then Mullen states that the battle is not over - ?The problem is we come out Monday, OK, this guy is ready to start. Now we transition to game planning and they really don?t handle it well. I might have to flip and go back. The other aspect is getting into a game. Even though a guy?s a starter we?ll make sure that they?re ready when the lights come on,? Mullen said. ?If he collapses, another guy really is much better when the lights come on and we?ve got to look at that aspect of the evaluation, too.?
This offense has gone from being set for three seasons to an awkward open audition ? the three challengers have been splitting practice reps since fall camp opened (Elijah Staley, who was in the mix in the spring, transferred out), meaning that no one got nearly enough time with the first team, which makes it difficult to explode out of the gate. But the Bulldogs don?t just have an issue on offense, the CB position has also become a major problem. The secondary was already having to replace Taveze Calhoun and Will Redmond, who are on NFL training camp rosters trying to earn Sunday paychecks, but expected starters Tolando Cleveland and Cedric Jiles have both been lost with recent injuries, scrambling up that position. As such, Mullen might consider a scoreboard outcome far below this pointspread to still be a ?win? in the grand scheme of his 2016 purposes, and note that it would not be something new ? he is 3-7 ATS laying -20 or more in non-conference games. As long-time readers know I rarely talk about trends, especially those with small samples, but the Big Chalk/Big Dog roles do get seriously charted because so much of that can be attributed to a coaches intent.
South Alabama brings the ideal focus for a big dog in this range ? the Jaguars have talked openly about how getting to play an SEC team in the opener brings a different energy to fall practice. The talent is just good enough to not be overwhelmed, and in particular there is a game planning consideration that brings the kind of factor that makes college football unique ? the sort of edges that are not priced into the line.
Kane Wommack is the new South Alabama defensive coordinator, and the youngest in the nation at the age of 28. That age might be an issue at another time, but not here, because of a pedigree that matters ? his father Dave is a long-time veteran that has been the DC at Mississippi the past four seasons, where Kane served as a grad assistant a couple of years ago.
Ole Miss, of course, is the biggest rival for State. The elder Wommack does not just game plan one week out of every year when facing the Bulldogs, but because of the magnitude of the rivalry likely thinks about the Mullen playbook for much of the off-season. So you can just imagine this scene around a picnic table on one of those hot and humid summer evenings ? ?Daddy what is the best way for us to game plan against State?? And the elder Wommack twists off a crayfish tail and says ?Well son, here are some of the things that have worked for us??
South Alabama has no chance to win this game, but with State lacking any interest in winning by five TDs, and the Jaguars bringing a greater sense of purpose than usual in this point spread range, there is value on backing the underdog to compete.
In the Sights, Friday NFL?
There is only one game on the entire NFL board in which 45 is a ?win? number for Under bettors, and I believe that brings an opportunity to step in and take advantage, with #262 49ers/Packers Under (10:00 Eastern) going into pocket. The QB rotation does not call for it, and while Chip Kelly has indeed been speeding things up with the 49ers, tonight he runs squarely into Mike McCarthy wanting to slow things down. Value extends down to 45.
We should get our first look at Colin Kaepernick this evening, which means likely rusty play, but even without rust mediocre play anyway. And there will be the only pre-season work from Aaron Rodgers tonight, but don?t expect a lot of it ? with Brett Hundley still unable to go the last thing the Packers want is for Rodgers to be taking hits.
As for the tempo, this marks the first of four straight road games for Green Bay, including trips to Jacksonville and Minnesota, and because of the last kickoff time (several players commented that it is right at bed-time for them in the pre-season), McCarthy may be in a particular mood to just shut this one down in the second half, with as few snaps as possible, and then have his team get back to Wisconsin.
Steelers / Saints Over 44.5
A game in which the role players will play a decent amount has me on the over for this one....Saints defense hasn't been good for a decent amount of time now..I doubt it has gotten a big upgrade from the last few years...Steelers don't care much about the preseason, but only 17 points this preseason might give them reason to force the issue...The starters have contributed next to nothing this preseason and some momentum going into the preseason finale would be wise IMO....Saints might actually benefit from a vanilla game plan from time to time from the Pitt defense...Pitt defensive teams has much more work then the offense..Keeping them healthy might be the way to go here for Tomlin..I expect the Pitt defense to rest guys a little earlier here..Both teams like to pass and I think we see plenty of that here..Weakness for these teams is the pass defense...Last year Pitt ranked 3rd worst at 30th in the league...Saints ranked 2nd worst at 31st in the league..I didn't see much of an upgrade in those areas to think they improve enough to make them jump up big this year..Small wager for myself here...I'm ready for the regular season already !!
Cal vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii
We are seeing some great value here with the Rainbow Warriors catching almost 3 TD?s. The books really have no choice here but to inflate this line. The betting public has a horrible time backing teams like Hawaii, who have been so bad for so long. On top of that, the Warriors only managed 17.6 ppg last year, while giving up 35.6 ppg. However, I believe we are going to see major improvements offensively in 2016 for Hawaii. New head coach Nick Rolovich is bringing back the spread attack. Something the team thrived with when he was the OC here back on 2010 and 2011. It's also had success the last 4 years in Nevada. You also have to take into consideration that Cal is not a great defensive team. The Bears allowed 30.7 ppg and 454 ypg last year. They only have 4 starters back on that side of the ball, with each of their top 6 tacklers no longer around. The big question is how will Hawaii?s defense keep Cal?s high-powered offense in check. Well, it will help that the Bears will no longer have Jared Goff at quarterback. Losing the No. 1 overall pick in the draft is going to have negative impact on the offense. Cal did bring in Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb, but he?s no Goff. Keep in mind that the Bears are installing a new offense. However, the biggest key is the weapons lost at receiver. Cal?s top 6 passing options from last year are all gone. There?s going to be little chemistry between Webb and the new starters. Lastly, you have to remember where this game is being played. This is a long way for both teams to travel. You also have to factor in that teams aren?t typically sharp in their opener away from home. The sloppier the game, the better chance Hawaii has of sticking around and keeping it close. Rainbow Warriors are 21-8 ATS in the first 2 weeks of the season since 1992. That includes 5 straight covers in their opener. All against Pac-12 teams.
