07:35 PM MLB [907] TOTAL o7.5 -120 (Washington Nationals vrs Atlanta Braves) ( M Scherzer - R / J Gant - R )
07:05 PM MLB [916] Baltimore Orioles +100 ( C Archer - R / U Jimenez - R )
07:10 PM MLB [917] New York Yankees +146 ( L Cessa - R / C Buchholz - R )
07:10 PM MLB [920] TOTAL u7.5 -105 (Detroit Tigers vrs Cleveland Indians) ( M Fulmer - R / C Kluber - R )
08:30 PM NBA [655] TOTAL o170.5 -110 (New York Liberty vrs Chicago Sky)
1 unit bet pays 32 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-159, -30.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
worried Berrios might be decent tonight vs Mets - he met with pitching staff and talked his way into another start. He is on the spot to put up or shut up, and they are working on his mechanics and pitch tipping
http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-t...ins/jose-berrios-is-tipping-his-pitches-r5099
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Minnesota Over is 16-6-1 last 23 overall, but 1-4-1 last 6....Minnesota is 69-29-5 O/U in their last 103 games
Over is 21-7 in WNBA Chicago Sky last 28 overall....9-0 last 9....two games left in regular season - 09/16/16 Fri, and 09/18/16 Sun.
Over is 21-5-1 in ATL last 27 overall....but Under is 13-3-1 in WAS last 17 overall....and most Scherzer starts of late..
Over is 37-13-1 in ARI last 51 home games....but Under is 15-5-1 in LAD last 21 overall.
The Orioles are 23-5 in Jimenez's last 28 home starts. (just saw this, it true?)
Baltimore Orioles -101
Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Baltimore Orioles at nearly even money at home. The Orioles are right in the thick of the AL wild card and AL East races and need every game. The same cannot be said for the Rays, who are 63-83 on the season and have the second-worst record in the American League.
Ubaldo Jimenez hasn't had his best season overall, but he has pitched better when these games have mattered the most down the stretch. He is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his last three starts. Jimenez loves facing the Rays, going 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in seven career starts against them.
Chris Archer has certainly been a huge disappointment for the Rays this season as he's 8-18 with a 4.05 ERA in 30 starts, including 5-9 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 road starts. Archer is 3-5 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Orioles as well. He has given up 10 runs and 6 homers in 17 innings spanning three starts against Baltimore this season.
Jimenez is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last two seasons. The Orioles are 23-5 in Jimenez's last 28 home starts. The Rays are 2-14 in Archer's 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record this season. Tampa Bay is 0-8 in Archer's last eight starts vs. division opponents.
N.Y. Yankees +143 over BOSTON
The thinking is that a loss like last night?s by the Yanks is not easy to bounce back from but we see it another way and it stems from some observations that we have made this year that we will apply repeatedly next year.
Boston had an improbable rally last night in the ninth inning to snatch a victory from the hands of defeat. Boston was down 5-2 and rallied with two outs to win 7-5. We?ve all seen the bedlam caused by a walk-off hit or walk off home run. Every player comes running on the field and they?re jumping up and down for several minutes while the hero is also being chased by a lemon pie. The fans are going nuts too but it does not end there. There are locker room celebrations and good feelings well into the night. We have been tracking this all year and noticed that teams that walk off at home (they can?t walk off on the road) have a huge propensity for a letdown the following night while the other team is all steamed up. We?re going to put that to the test here and perhaps a few more times too. Expect to see this angle played frequently next year.
Aside from that, Clay Buchholz priced in this range is insane when you consider that Buchholz has an awful BB/K split of 49/80 in 120 innings to go along with a WHIP of 1.40 and a xERA of 5.31.
Minnesota +152 over N.Y. METS
It?s kind of odd to see an interleague game this late in September but it is what it is and the Twinkies are enjoying the role of the spoiler. The Twins just took two of four from Detroit. They also have recent wins over K.C. and Cleveland to run their record to 4-4 over their past eight games. They are an extremely dangerous bunch because they are so capable of scoring runs and that figures to come into play here against Bartolo Colon. Maybe Colon goes out and throws another decent game but we would not pay this price to find out. Colon?s act of defying logic is one that is always prone to blowing up. The outstanding control angle holds no weight either (see Josh Tomlin). Colon continues to utilize a pitch-to-contact approach and elite control to get the most out of what he has left in the tank. However, with an 87.8 mph fastball that he throws 88% of the time and a puny swing and miss rate of 5%, he has very little margin for error. Colon has taken luck to an entirely new level. He shrugs off age, girth and poor skills but nobody is impervious to natural forces forever, right? Right?? RIGHT!!!???? Damn straight we?ll bite.
Jose Berrios has the talent to thrive at this level but he?s still a work in progress with shaky control. What he lacks in size (6?0? 185 pounds), he makes up for in athleticism and above average velocity. His fastball sits between 91-96 mph and tops out at 97. His other pitches consist of a very good breaking ball and above average change-up. He keeps hitters off-balance with his deceptive change-up which plays up due to his ability to repeat his athletic delivery and consistent arm slot. Berrios sequences his offerings very well and misses many bats as a result. His control has continued to improve through the years and his command is advanced for his age but he just has not seemed comfortable at this level yet. Indeed he is a risk but with 42 K?s in 45 innings and his upside, he?s a great option here taking back a big price against such a weak starter like Bartolo Colon.
Minnesota @ Indiana
Pick: Indiana +3.5
The road team is favored, but this is a tough situational spot for top-seeded Minnesota. It's their fourth straight road game and they looked road weary in the last contest, losing 98-97 in overtime at Chicago as five-point favorites. The Lynx have already locked-up home-court advantage throughout the postseason and are 3-7 ATS against the Eastern Conference. Indiana is home and playing well down the stretch, winning four of six despite playing four of the last five on the road. Now they come home for their final two games of the regular season on a 9-5 straight-up run. That included four wins as a dog, plus one as pick 'em. The Indiana Fever still have a shot at earning home-court in the first round, one-half game behind the Atlanta Dream and a full game behind fourth-place Chicago. And the Fever are a sizzling 33-14-4 ATS against a team with a winning straight-up record. Take Indiana.
Baylor vs. Rice
Play: Over 65
The Rice defense has looked terrible through the first two games of the season. While I think their defense is better than what they have shown, I also think that Baylor?s balanced attack will put up their expected team total of 48 points. The Baylor Bears have averaged around 600 yards of total offense the last 5 years. They still have the key components (QB, RB, WR--KD Cannon). After sleepwalking through the 1st half against SMU last week (6-6 tie), the Bears woke up in the 2nd half to win the game 40-13. Baylor has ran for 275 in each of their first two games. This is an offense that is averaging 103 plays per game, ranked #2 in the nation. Rice likes to go up-tempo also at time when they can which makes this game GREAT for the OVER.
The Baylor defense is very young up front as they return zero defensive linemen from 2015 which I like for the over as ,1) Rice should form some kind of running game, and 2) QB Stehling should not be pressured as much in the pocket. It?s up to the Rice offensive line and HC Bailiff has been highly critical of. The Owls O-Line coach has been there for 8 years so I look for improvement.
The question I needed to answer was, ?Can Rice score 21 or more points in this game?? I strongly feel they do it on their home field. I mentioned the Baylor defense being very young up front. Now, their senior starting cornerback is expected to miss this game, leaving them with a rFR and a sophomore starting at corner and my answer to that question is now, ?YES?!
Rice will embrace the role of playing this game at home as the previous two meetings were played at Baylor. HC Bailiff is a veteran coach. He is not going to let his team lay down. In 2014, Rice opened the season 0-2 (played back to back road games). The following week was their first home game and it was a 45-42 game with over 1000 yards of offense.The last two meetings between Baylor and Rice have both went OVER with final point totals hitting 87 points both times and the totals were 68.5 and 74. The total tonight is lower than both of those and that brings immediate value to the table.
Rice +30.5
On paper, the Bears look as if they?re rolling having compiled one-sided 55-7 and 40-13 wins against Northwestern State and SMU respectively. However, they failed to cover each going off the board as 50 point chalk opening week and lofty 34.5 point favorites against the Mustangs.
The defense has been pretty decent in allowing just 241.5 total yards per game, but it?s not like they?ve faced anything that awaits down the Big 12 road. The rushing defense has left a bit to be desired in allowing 111.5 yards per game (No. 42), but that?s just nit-picking. Seth Russell has done an excellent job navigating the offense a year removed from going down to a season-ending injury. However, Baylor has now turned it over four times and put the pigskin on the ground three other times. This club simply isn?t as good as in years past to get away with being that careless with the pigskin.
Big 12 play opens up next week for the Bears, so it?s highly possible Jim Grobe has a tough time getting his kids up for this tilt under the Friday night lights with an Owls squad it simply annihilated a short season ago. Seth Russell threw for 277 yards and six touchdowns, and the defense allowed less than 250 total yards. It was a beat down of epic proportions that could have the Bears extremely disinterested.
There?s talent on the Rice offense with Tyler Stehling a capable field general and Darik Dillard one of the program?s best all-time running backs. Their pride and confidence has been smashed the first couple weeks of the season, but there?s still plenty of time to make hay within Conference USA.
Before the season started, Rice had covered its previous seven non-conference tilts at a 6-0-1 clip versus the closing betting odds. Though Baylor stands a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times it opposed a CUSA rival and covered each of the last five against the Owls, I simply have no desire whatsoever to lay this kind of chalk with a team that isn?t firing on all cylinders and emits some warning signs. This is the Owls home opener and I can?t help but think they?ll put their best foot forward and not get thoroughly embarrassed.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL?
One of the classic axioms in this endeavor is that the best time to bet on a trend is right as it is first happening. That may sound whimsical but there are some real foundations of logic, and that helps build into #284 Oakland/Atlanta Under (4:25 Eastern), with nothing lower than 49 out there this morning, and a legit opportunity for a shopper to find 49.5. I believe we can get ahead of the game with each of the coaches, and two defenses that will not be top tier, but will be better than they were in 2015, with value extending down to 48.
Dan Quinn and Jack Del Rio are defense-first guys, and one usually does not find the 49 range when that is the case. But they are transitioning teams from their predecessors, and markets can be slow to adjust because some of the past data still looks ?fresh?. With both teams playing Over last week, there is even less reason to believe any kind of change is taking place. Here is where you can put your focus ? Quinn had his team play Under to a 7-1 tune on the road in his first season, and in terms of pace the Falcons went from being #6 in SPS to #26. In the 2016 opener they were again at #26. Meanwhile for Del Rio the chance to control a game as a favorite was rare in 2015, but the Raiders did play 3-0-1 Under when favored. He also slowed things down dramatically, a team #8 in SPS in 2014 falling to #17, and much like the Falcons the 2016 opener was right at the 2015 level, again #17.
The Atlanta defense will get better this year because Quinn has brought in players that will fit his style. It will not be a good defense, but it has a chance to elevate to being near average, and this is enough in this range. Meanwhile there is an interesting upside in Oakland if the talent scouts have been correct, with nine first or second round draft picks in the starting lineup, and a couple of former first-rounders in reserves. The Raiders won?t be a good defense, but they can perhaps be a tick better than average, and that is also enough in this range.
We don?t see 49?s often with lower-tier tempo, but that shows the carry-over in reputation for these franchises. Quinn and Del Rio want to play it a different way, so this is a good timing point to take advantage.
07:05 PM MLB [916] Baltimore Orioles +100 ( C Archer - R / U Jimenez - R )
07:10 PM MLB [917] New York Yankees +146 ( L Cessa - R / C Buchholz - R )
07:10 PM MLB [920] TOTAL u7.5 -105 (Detroit Tigers vrs Cleveland Indians) ( M Fulmer - R / C Kluber - R )
08:30 PM NBA [655] TOTAL o170.5 -110 (New York Liberty vrs Chicago Sky)
1 unit bet pays 32 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-159, -30.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
worried Berrios might be decent tonight vs Mets - he met with pitching staff and talked his way into another start. He is on the spot to put up or shut up, and they are working on his mechanics and pitch tipping
http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-t...ins/jose-berrios-is-tipping-his-pitches-r5099
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Minnesota Over is 16-6-1 last 23 overall, but 1-4-1 last 6....Minnesota is 69-29-5 O/U in their last 103 games
Over is 21-7 in WNBA Chicago Sky last 28 overall....9-0 last 9....two games left in regular season - 09/16/16 Fri, and 09/18/16 Sun.
Over is 21-5-1 in ATL last 27 overall....but Under is 13-3-1 in WAS last 17 overall....and most Scherzer starts of late..
Over is 37-13-1 in ARI last 51 home games....but Under is 15-5-1 in LAD last 21 overall.
The Orioles are 23-5 in Jimenez's last 28 home starts. (just saw this, it true?)
Baltimore Orioles -101
Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Baltimore Orioles at nearly even money at home. The Orioles are right in the thick of the AL wild card and AL East races and need every game. The same cannot be said for the Rays, who are 63-83 on the season and have the second-worst record in the American League.
Ubaldo Jimenez hasn't had his best season overall, but he has pitched better when these games have mattered the most down the stretch. He is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his last three starts. Jimenez loves facing the Rays, going 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in seven career starts against them.
Chris Archer has certainly been a huge disappointment for the Rays this season as he's 8-18 with a 4.05 ERA in 30 starts, including 5-9 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 road starts. Archer is 3-5 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Orioles as well. He has given up 10 runs and 6 homers in 17 innings spanning three starts against Baltimore this season.
Jimenez is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last two seasons. The Orioles are 23-5 in Jimenez's last 28 home starts. The Rays are 2-14 in Archer's 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record this season. Tampa Bay is 0-8 in Archer's last eight starts vs. division opponents.
N.Y. Yankees +143 over BOSTON
The thinking is that a loss like last night?s by the Yanks is not easy to bounce back from but we see it another way and it stems from some observations that we have made this year that we will apply repeatedly next year.
Boston had an improbable rally last night in the ninth inning to snatch a victory from the hands of defeat. Boston was down 5-2 and rallied with two outs to win 7-5. We?ve all seen the bedlam caused by a walk-off hit or walk off home run. Every player comes running on the field and they?re jumping up and down for several minutes while the hero is also being chased by a lemon pie. The fans are going nuts too but it does not end there. There are locker room celebrations and good feelings well into the night. We have been tracking this all year and noticed that teams that walk off at home (they can?t walk off on the road) have a huge propensity for a letdown the following night while the other team is all steamed up. We?re going to put that to the test here and perhaps a few more times too. Expect to see this angle played frequently next year.
Aside from that, Clay Buchholz priced in this range is insane when you consider that Buchholz has an awful BB/K split of 49/80 in 120 innings to go along with a WHIP of 1.40 and a xERA of 5.31.
Minnesota +152 over N.Y. METS
It?s kind of odd to see an interleague game this late in September but it is what it is and the Twinkies are enjoying the role of the spoiler. The Twins just took two of four from Detroit. They also have recent wins over K.C. and Cleveland to run their record to 4-4 over their past eight games. They are an extremely dangerous bunch because they are so capable of scoring runs and that figures to come into play here against Bartolo Colon. Maybe Colon goes out and throws another decent game but we would not pay this price to find out. Colon?s act of defying logic is one that is always prone to blowing up. The outstanding control angle holds no weight either (see Josh Tomlin). Colon continues to utilize a pitch-to-contact approach and elite control to get the most out of what he has left in the tank. However, with an 87.8 mph fastball that he throws 88% of the time and a puny swing and miss rate of 5%, he has very little margin for error. Colon has taken luck to an entirely new level. He shrugs off age, girth and poor skills but nobody is impervious to natural forces forever, right? Right?? RIGHT!!!???? Damn straight we?ll bite.
Jose Berrios has the talent to thrive at this level but he?s still a work in progress with shaky control. What he lacks in size (6?0? 185 pounds), he makes up for in athleticism and above average velocity. His fastball sits between 91-96 mph and tops out at 97. His other pitches consist of a very good breaking ball and above average change-up. He keeps hitters off-balance with his deceptive change-up which plays up due to his ability to repeat his athletic delivery and consistent arm slot. Berrios sequences his offerings very well and misses many bats as a result. His control has continued to improve through the years and his command is advanced for his age but he just has not seemed comfortable at this level yet. Indeed he is a risk but with 42 K?s in 45 innings and his upside, he?s a great option here taking back a big price against such a weak starter like Bartolo Colon.
Minnesota @ Indiana
Pick: Indiana +3.5
The road team is favored, but this is a tough situational spot for top-seeded Minnesota. It's their fourth straight road game and they looked road weary in the last contest, losing 98-97 in overtime at Chicago as five-point favorites. The Lynx have already locked-up home-court advantage throughout the postseason and are 3-7 ATS against the Eastern Conference. Indiana is home and playing well down the stretch, winning four of six despite playing four of the last five on the road. Now they come home for their final two games of the regular season on a 9-5 straight-up run. That included four wins as a dog, plus one as pick 'em. The Indiana Fever still have a shot at earning home-court in the first round, one-half game behind the Atlanta Dream and a full game behind fourth-place Chicago. And the Fever are a sizzling 33-14-4 ATS against a team with a winning straight-up record. Take Indiana.
Baylor vs. Rice
Play: Over 65
The Rice defense has looked terrible through the first two games of the season. While I think their defense is better than what they have shown, I also think that Baylor?s balanced attack will put up their expected team total of 48 points. The Baylor Bears have averaged around 600 yards of total offense the last 5 years. They still have the key components (QB, RB, WR--KD Cannon). After sleepwalking through the 1st half against SMU last week (6-6 tie), the Bears woke up in the 2nd half to win the game 40-13. Baylor has ran for 275 in each of their first two games. This is an offense that is averaging 103 plays per game, ranked #2 in the nation. Rice likes to go up-tempo also at time when they can which makes this game GREAT for the OVER.
The Baylor defense is very young up front as they return zero defensive linemen from 2015 which I like for the over as ,1) Rice should form some kind of running game, and 2) QB Stehling should not be pressured as much in the pocket. It?s up to the Rice offensive line and HC Bailiff has been highly critical of. The Owls O-Line coach has been there for 8 years so I look for improvement.
The question I needed to answer was, ?Can Rice score 21 or more points in this game?? I strongly feel they do it on their home field. I mentioned the Baylor defense being very young up front. Now, their senior starting cornerback is expected to miss this game, leaving them with a rFR and a sophomore starting at corner and my answer to that question is now, ?YES?!
Rice will embrace the role of playing this game at home as the previous two meetings were played at Baylor. HC Bailiff is a veteran coach. He is not going to let his team lay down. In 2014, Rice opened the season 0-2 (played back to back road games). The following week was their first home game and it was a 45-42 game with over 1000 yards of offense.The last two meetings between Baylor and Rice have both went OVER with final point totals hitting 87 points both times and the totals were 68.5 and 74. The total tonight is lower than both of those and that brings immediate value to the table.
Rice +30.5
On paper, the Bears look as if they?re rolling having compiled one-sided 55-7 and 40-13 wins against Northwestern State and SMU respectively. However, they failed to cover each going off the board as 50 point chalk opening week and lofty 34.5 point favorites against the Mustangs.
The defense has been pretty decent in allowing just 241.5 total yards per game, but it?s not like they?ve faced anything that awaits down the Big 12 road. The rushing defense has left a bit to be desired in allowing 111.5 yards per game (No. 42), but that?s just nit-picking. Seth Russell has done an excellent job navigating the offense a year removed from going down to a season-ending injury. However, Baylor has now turned it over four times and put the pigskin on the ground three other times. This club simply isn?t as good as in years past to get away with being that careless with the pigskin.
Big 12 play opens up next week for the Bears, so it?s highly possible Jim Grobe has a tough time getting his kids up for this tilt under the Friday night lights with an Owls squad it simply annihilated a short season ago. Seth Russell threw for 277 yards and six touchdowns, and the defense allowed less than 250 total yards. It was a beat down of epic proportions that could have the Bears extremely disinterested.
There?s talent on the Rice offense with Tyler Stehling a capable field general and Darik Dillard one of the program?s best all-time running backs. Their pride and confidence has been smashed the first couple weeks of the season, but there?s still plenty of time to make hay within Conference USA.
Before the season started, Rice had covered its previous seven non-conference tilts at a 6-0-1 clip versus the closing betting odds. Though Baylor stands a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times it opposed a CUSA rival and covered each of the last five against the Owls, I simply have no desire whatsoever to lay this kind of chalk with a team that isn?t firing on all cylinders and emits some warning signs. This is the Owls home opener and I can?t help but think they?ll put their best foot forward and not get thoroughly embarrassed.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL?
One of the classic axioms in this endeavor is that the best time to bet on a trend is right as it is first happening. That may sound whimsical but there are some real foundations of logic, and that helps build into #284 Oakland/Atlanta Under (4:25 Eastern), with nothing lower than 49 out there this morning, and a legit opportunity for a shopper to find 49.5. I believe we can get ahead of the game with each of the coaches, and two defenses that will not be top tier, but will be better than they were in 2015, with value extending down to 48.
Dan Quinn and Jack Del Rio are defense-first guys, and one usually does not find the 49 range when that is the case. But they are transitioning teams from their predecessors, and markets can be slow to adjust because some of the past data still looks ?fresh?. With both teams playing Over last week, there is even less reason to believe any kind of change is taking place. Here is where you can put your focus ? Quinn had his team play Under to a 7-1 tune on the road in his first season, and in terms of pace the Falcons went from being #6 in SPS to #26. In the 2016 opener they were again at #26. Meanwhile for Del Rio the chance to control a game as a favorite was rare in 2015, but the Raiders did play 3-0-1 Under when favored. He also slowed things down dramatically, a team #8 in SPS in 2014 falling to #17, and much like the Falcons the 2016 opener was right at the 2015 level, again #17.
The Atlanta defense will get better this year because Quinn has brought in players that will fit his style. It will not be a good defense, but it has a chance to elevate to being near average, and this is enough in this range. Meanwhile there is an interesting upside in Oakland if the talent scouts have been correct, with nine first or second round draft picks in the starting lineup, and a couple of former first-rounders in reserves. The Raiders won?t be a good defense, but they can perhaps be a tick better than average, and that is also enough in this range.
We don?t see 49?s often with lower-tier tempo, but that shows the carry-over in reputation for these franchises. Quinn and Del Rio want to play it a different way, so this is a good timing point to take advantage.
