10:35 PM NBA [519] TOTAL o211-110 (San Antonio Spurs vrs Los Angeles Lakers)
08:00 PM CBB [534] Arkansas -11.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [578] TCU -20-110
07:30 PM CBB Added Game [582] Arkansas Little Rock -8.5 -105
07:05 PM NHL [1] Pittsburgh Penguins -155
07:05 PM NHL [4] Washington Capitals -220
09:05 PM NHL [9] Chicago Blackhawks -160
1 unit bet pays 51 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Siena vs. Kansas
Pick: Under 160
Kansas is home, but has traveled 12,000 miles for its first two games! They come off a thrilling 77-75 upset of top-ranked Duke, winning the battle of the boards 38-29. Kansas won despite missing 10 free throws (47.4%). Kansas is 12-5-1 UNDER the total after a victory, plus 22-7-1 UNDER when following a spread win. They host Siena, a talented team that can play good defense. The Saints return all five starters from a team that went 21-13 last season. They come off a loss to George Washington and the team is 56-26-1 UNDER the total when following a defeat. All of which means a game featuring plenty of great defense.
New Mexico (-9) over New Mexico State
It's always tough to lay this many points in a rivalry game. But this one looks like a mismatch to me. This might be a better team than the Lobos brought into this game last year. Now that Cullen Neal has transferred there's some better karma on the court and the Lobos looked sharp in their first two wins. Star guard Elijah Brown and forward Tim Williams give UNM the two best players on the court in this one. New Mexico has a stellar home-court advantage in The Pit and a lot of size and experience to back it up. New Mexico State is definitely not better than they were last year. Without Pascal Siakam and Tanveer Bhular they are missing two of their best players and two of the biggest parts of their identity. New Mexico beat the Aggies by 18 at home last year and won by nine on the road. I think they will take this one by at least double-digits and I have UNM winning by 13.
IDAHO AT ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK
PLAY: LITTLE ROCK -10.5
There?s always some trepidation laying doubles when a game figures to be somewhat low scoring. That?s the case tonight as UALR plays host to Idaho. The Vandals will play their pack line defense and will look to maintain a slow tempo, and it?s not like I expect the Trojans to be running and gunning. Nevertheless, I?m willing to give the points and fade Idaho in spots like this until the team shows an ability to put the ball in the basket on a more frequent basis.
Little Rock comes into the new season with good reason to optimistic following last season?s great success. The Trojans ended up with 30 wins, including the double overtime shocker over Purdue in the NCAA Tournament.
There have been some changes for Little Rock since last March. Wes Flanagan is the new head coach following the somewhat controversial departure of Chris Beard. Beard first accepted the UNLV job, and then shunned the Rebels in favor of the gig at Texas Tech. Flanagan will have to make do without a pair of terrific graduated players, but let?s just say he didn?t get stuck with an empty cupboard. The Trojans are perhaps a bit of an unknown quantity as their first two games were against non-D1 competition. But this is still a team that looks as though it will contend in the Sun Belt.
The spread here is no bargain, and in fact, there?s probably an argument to be made that it?s a touch inflated. But there?s some real excitement surrounding Little Rock?s fan base off last season?s awesome results and there should be a big crowd on hand tonight as admission will be free to all veterans and service personnel.
Look for this one to be competitive much of the way, but I?m expecting the Trojans to eventually get rid of the Vandals. I?ll side with UALR to get there by enough to cover the number in the process.
In the Sights, Friday Hoops?
One of the focus points that I set aside each November are those Friday nights on the hardwoods in which a major program also has their football team playing at home on Saturday. It can bring significantly more fans to the basketball game than usual, and tonight the attention goes to the nicely renovated Schollmaier Arena. I believe this becomes a special setting for Jamie Dixon, and with his Horned Frogs up against a disinterested opponent it puts #578 TCU (7:00 Eastern) in play. This one has trickled up a bit since the opener, but there is still -18.5 out there in the Friday morning markets, and value extends to -19.
There was a lot of buzz when Dixon left the Pittsburgh program, where he had a great deal of success (11 NCAA tournament appearances in 13 seasons), to seemingly take a few steps down the basketball food chain to TCU but there is a reason for that ? this is his alma mater, where he led the Frogs to SWC championships as a junior and senior, and was inducted into the school?s Hall of Fame a decade ago (he was good enough to be drafted by the then Washington Bullets, but did not make the NBA cut). And to show the spark that has already generated, Dixon quickly made his presence felt on the recruiting front, bringing in freshmen talents like Jaylen Fisher and Desmond Bane that have stepped right into the starting lineup.
So this Friday night matters, the Horned Frogs getting a 98-62 walkover vs. Alabama A&M on Monday to tune up, with now a legit crowd to celebrate what could be a real turning point for the program. This is Dixon and the players selling themselves to the alums in town to watch the football team playing Oklahoma State Saturday afternoon, and the talent is also good enough to make it happen. There has been arguably the biggest upgrade at PG of any team in the nation, with Fisher and Teas A&M transfer Alex Robinson manning the position, each having eight assists in Monday?s win, when the team had 29 assists on 37 made FGs. Now two players that sat out that game, Kenrich Williams and Michael Williams, will play tonight, and freshman Kouat Noi may get his NCAA clearance today as well.
Meanwhile Jacksonville State will bring only a limited interest in the scoreboard. The Gamecocks are caught up in one of the most unusual schedule cycles ever laid out, playing only one of their 15 pre-conference games at home, that just happening to be their next outing vs. Dalton State. This is the fourth game in eight days on this first leg of the long road grind, and the issue of depth will come front and center ? the starting five played 167 of 200 minutes at Western Kentucky on Wednesday, scoring 62 of the 67 points. With Ray Harper under no pressure to win in his first season, taking over a team that went 8-23 LY, this one has a chance to break open, and the home team should go hard the full 40 minutes on a night that will mean so much to their coach.
I actually want to get in play on Siena tonight. I know the home opener crowd could provide a shot of energy early and Self has no reason to run it up late. My concern is with Siena in the midst of a tough road swing and a winnable game at Asheville on Sunday, will Patsos mail it in if it gets away in the 2nd half?
I'm going to play Siena but wondering your advice on the approach - does a 50/50 split between first half +13.5 and full game +23 make sense? Or would you value one over the other? Thanks as always.
This one is a tough read from both directions, although the price is beginning to stretch out a bit for a favorite that won't be all that concerned about a margin. A problem is that this is the kind of game where Siena can miss Lavon Long, and his ability to bang around inside and play defense, and there is a good chance that Nico Clareth may not play because of a knee injury (he didn't practice yesterday). In a setting like this I would want an underdog to have all hands on deck.
My free play is going to be on the zone-happy Syracuse Orange, who should have no problem disposing of Monmouth tonight, by more than the prescribed number.
You do remember the last time we breathed these two schools in the same sentence, right? It was Selection Sunday last March, and two of the biggest story lines involved Syracuse getting into the dance, while the Hawks were left out.
Well, Syracuse might be better than the 10th seed that made it to the final foursome last season, and the Hawks, well, I'm not so sure.
I mean, after knocking off Drexel 78-65 in its opener Nov. 11, Monmouth overcame an 18-point deficit against South Carolina, sent the game into overtime on Tuesday, and then lost, 70-69 on a buzzer-beater.
Something tells me the disappointment hasn't worn off, and the Orange are catching Monmouth in a good spot.
Syracuse is led by point guards Frank Howard and John Gillon, who have combined for 46 points, 27 assists and just five turnovers in two games. The Orange has plenty of talent, and will exploit the morale-sunken Hawks tonight.
Lay the points.
Phoenix Suns +7
The Phoenix Suns are showing great value here as big road underdogs to the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are coming off a huge win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, setting them up for a letdown spot here.
Phoenix, on the other hand, comes in extremely motivated for a victory after losing three straight. The Suns match up very well with the Pacers because they are both up-tempo teams with very good guard play. And few teams in the NBA have better guards than the Suns with their trip of Devin Booker (20.5 ppg), Eric Bledsoe (17.5) and Brandon Knight (12.8 ).
The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be rested and ready to go. The Pacers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. And with big games against Oklahoma City and then Golden State on deck, they could be overlooking the Suns here.
Phoenix has actually won 8 of its last 11 trips to Indiana outright. The Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss. The Suns are 41-17-2 ATS in their last 60 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Phoenix is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
With the market at -8 and 204, is there a good way you see to get involved on a "refocused" Clippers team after their poor performance at home against Memphis on Wednesday?
LAC is not an easy read tonight because there are higher profile home games on deck against the Bulls tomorrow, and the Raptors Monday. I can see them bringing enough energy to win, but there isn't anything about the setting that has them going for any kind of margin.
Hey Dave I'm leaning Celtics tonight vs GSW. Boston should be able to hang. Any thoughts on this one?
Although I like the ability of Brad Stevens to game plan for a game like this one, still no word yet on Al Horford getting cleared through the concussion call, and for as much as the Warriors have struggled in terms of defense and rebounding, Boston hasn't been any better in those categories. If the Celtics were at full strength it would be an interesting matchup, but it is much less so without Jae Crowder, and possibly without Horford.
Portland
Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record
Trail Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400
Trail Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest
New Orleans
Pelicans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Friday games
Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference
Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest
This one is a matchup of a team with one superstar with little supporting help against a team with a great backcourt duo and some fringe pieces. Davis can?t defend Lillard and McCollum effectively given the quickness difference. He can take advantage of the weak Portland frontcourt unit to put up his share of points. The thing with the Pelicans is that you can?t rely on anyone to step up and contribute consistently. Portland has a couple of guys that can put the ball in the hole. That proves to be the difference as the Blazers get the victory.
The Warriors are:
7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest
The Celtics are:
2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference
*Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Boston can try to defend all it wants, but no team in the league has been able to slow down Golden State as of late. Isaiah Thomas has done everything he can to lead the Celtics in the absence of two of their best players, but it just won?t be enough on Friday night. The Warriors have too much talent at nearly every position, and it will show in TD Garden. Kevin Durant actually has a little something to prove, as he turned down Boston for Golden State in the offseason.
Spurs vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +7
The Lakers have covered the last three meetings largely due to huge point spreads, but this time they have the ability to cover a single-digit line having won three of their last four games upping their record to 7-5 and 8-3-1 ATS this season. San Antonio has won four straight but just 2-4 ATS its last six games and the Spurs are 1-4 ATS following a win. D'Angelo Russell exploded for 32 points and Julius Randle added 17 points and 14 rebounds in the Lakers 125-118 win over Brooklyn in their first game back after a three-game trip. The Spurs won but failed to cover their last two contests against Miami and Sacramento. The Lakers are second in the league averaging 110.0 points per game and third with a .473 field goal percentage and they're playing with two days rest.
The San Antonio Spurs are:
6-2 Over in their last eight road games
4-0 Over in their last four games against Los Angeles
4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games
The Los Angeles Lakers are:
5-1 Over in their last six overall
5-1 Over in their last six home games
4-1 Over in their last five games against the Western Conference
Gasol is in a groove for San Antonio, which has scored at least 91 points in every contest of this 2016-17 campaign. Los Angeles center Timofey Mozgov scored a season-best 20 against Brooklyn after being held in single digits in seven of his first 10 games this season. The over is 6-2 in the Spurs? last eight on the road. It is also 5-1 in the Lakers? last six overall, 5-1 in their last six at home, and 4-1 in their last five against the Western Conference. Additionally, the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two teams. Look for this one to go over the total.
Pick: Over 210
My free play is on the new-look Los Angeles Lakers, plus the points against the San Antonio Spurs.
This full-scale renovation project is looking good so far, as the Lakers have already earned seven wins, a feat that took them much longer to achieve last season. Have to hand it to coach Luke Walton, he knows how to be in tune with this young roster, and the one thing you can say about this team is playing up to the level of competition.
Think about this for a moment: the Lakers have a better record than the Memphis Grizzlies, Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans. They've also blown out the two-time defending Western Conference champion Golden State Warriors.
In fact, three of the team's seven wins have come against quality opponents, that being Golden State, Atlanta and Houston.
The Lakers are scoring 107.1 points per 100 possessions this season, and the oddsmakers still aren't giving them their just due. The Lakers boast a 4-1 record at home, and will be looking for an outright win tonight.
Raptors vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets +4
The Nuggets got back on track with a blowout win over Phoenix last time out. That should provide some positive momentum. They already played the Raptors tough at Toronto, losing by three, and they'll be looking to get some payback tonight. Including the 'cover' at Toronto, the Nuggets are already 6-3 ATS on the season, when getting points. They're also 17-12 ATS the past couple of seasons, when coming off a double-digit win, 1-0 ATS this season. Last season, after winning by a point in Toronto, the Nuggets beat the Raptors by 19 points in the rematch here at Denver. They were +4.5 underdogs for that game, too. Consider grabbing the points.
Blackhawks vs. Flames
Play: Flames +135
With Johnny Gaudreau out for the Flames and with the Blackhawks off of a 4-0 shutout loss, everyone is going to be lining up to lay the price with Chicago here. However, as a contrarian, this is the type of spot I look for and I am rolling with Calgary as my Free pick Friday. Note that the Blackhawks have a great record so far this season but have been helped by their schedule as they have only played 6 road games so far. The concern for the Hawks is that they have averaged only 2 goals per game on the road this season and they are now playing the 2nd game of a 7 game road trip. Calgary will see everyone step up now that Gaudreau is officially out with a broken finger and the Flames have averaged 2.7 goals per game at home this season. They've had trouble scoring goals but that has particularly been the case on the road. Look for everyone to elevate their game here for a Calgary club hungry for more home wins and looking to make up for the Gaudreau absence. While Chicago will be a popular choice here, the Blackhawks actually are 0-3 this season when off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more. The Flames have won 19 of 30 (+$7,300) in home games with a posted total of 5 goals or less. The home dog is where the value is in this game as the Flames have a great shot at the upset.
CAROLINA -104 over Montreal
OT included. Montreal will play the front end of back-to-backs here with the Maple Leafs on deck tomorrow night in Montreal on Hockey Night in Canada?s featured game. This Toronto/Montreal rivalry suddenly has an entirely different feel to it because for the first time in 20 years, the Maple Leafs are relevant again. The Leafs are so relevant that the Habs have decided to go with Al Montoya tonight and save Carey Price for the Maple Leafs. Protocol for the Habs has always been to play Price in first game (get the win) and Montoya in the second game (free roll). Not here, which tells us that this game is a huge look-ahead spot for the Habs and/or that it is more of an inconvenience than anything else. If the Canadiens are overlooking the ?Canes, they will get burned and if they are not overlooking them, they are still up against it. You see, Montreal is not a strong possession team. They are actually not a strong anything team except in goal where Carey Price continues to win them games they otherwise would have likely lost. No matter what surface stat or metric you look at (other than goaltending), you?ll find the Canadiens to be a middle of the pack NHL team.
The Hurricanes are in year two of being under the radar. This is a team that was rarely outplayed last year but missed the playoffs because they lost a league high 16 games in extra time. They also lost games on the square because of weak goaltending. This season, the 'Canes are a better outfit and Cam Ward is providing stable goaltending at the present time so we won?t make that an issue. Coach Paul Maurice has made a decision to stick with Ward and it?s paying off. It?s more than that though. Carolina is a possession juggernaut again, as they rank first in time spent in the offensive end. They also rank first in Corsi for per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. The Canes are a top-three team at both ends of the ice. They create lots of chances while surrendering few. The Hurricanes are coming off back-to-back wins over Washington and San Jose while allowing just one goal combined. They outshot that pair 38-21 and 33-22 respectively. The Hurricanes have played the fifth toughest schedule in the league and they?re 3-0 against top-10 competition. Now it appears as though the Habs are more focused on Toronto, which sets this one up beautifully.
COLUMBUS +111 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. After a three-game sweep on the Canadian West Coast in Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, the Rangers return to the East with a game here before hosting Florida on Sunday. The Rangers are now 13-4 and have reeled off eight wins over their past nine games. Thing is, everything is bouncing the Rangers way from pucks going in to pucks staying out. The Rangers shooting percentage is off the charts but it is also unsustainable so regression will be working against them real soon. In those three aforementioned games, the Rangers were outshot by Vancouver, 38-25 but won 7-2. They were outshot by Edmonton 39-27 and won 3-1 and they were also outshot by Calgary 36-28 but won that one too, 4-1. New York constantly gets outshot. They are commonly allowing 35 shots on net per game or more but they keep winning. You cannot spend significantly more time in your own end than in the opposition?s end and expect to keep winning. The Rangers charmed life likely ends here.
Pittsburgh is a -150 road favorite in Brooklyn tonight. The Blackhawks are a -144 road fav in Calgary. Based on the standings, the Rangers in Columbus to play the Jackets is as much as a mismatch as those two yet the Rangers are a much smaller price. Why? It is very likely because the odds makers are fully aware of the Rangers extreme fortune so far.
Columbus has played the third toughest schedule in the NHL while the Rangers strength of schedule ranks 29th. The Jackets, after a slow start, are 3-4 against top-10 teams and 6-6 against top 16 teams. The Jackets have recent wins over Washington, St. Louis, Anaheim (twice) and Montreal while the Rangers are getting (badly) outplayed by the likes of Vancouver and Calgary among others. The Jackets have been an extremely live pooch at home all year long and there is nothing suggesting that it won?t continue.
CINCINNATI +7.5 over Memphis
It?s been a disastrous season for the Bearcats, but if there is one game in which the team is going to be ?up? for and come ready to play it?s tonight as they play their final home game of the season in front of 30,000 people in a stand-alone national TV situation against a team that has embarrassed them the last two seasons. What?s more, this is a bit of a sandwich game for Memphis, which dropped a gut-wrenching 49-42 decision to South Florida last week and has a game with Houston on deck. The Tigers defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game and 444 total yards of offense on the road this year, so there?s no way they should be laying a TD away from home.
08:00 PM CBB [534] Arkansas -11.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [578] TCU -20-110
07:30 PM CBB Added Game [582] Arkansas Little Rock -8.5 -105
07:05 PM NHL [1] Pittsburgh Penguins -155
07:05 PM NHL [4] Washington Capitals -220
09:05 PM NHL [9] Chicago Blackhawks -160
1 unit bet pays 51 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Siena vs. Kansas
Pick: Under 160
Kansas is home, but has traveled 12,000 miles for its first two games! They come off a thrilling 77-75 upset of top-ranked Duke, winning the battle of the boards 38-29. Kansas won despite missing 10 free throws (47.4%). Kansas is 12-5-1 UNDER the total after a victory, plus 22-7-1 UNDER when following a spread win. They host Siena, a talented team that can play good defense. The Saints return all five starters from a team that went 21-13 last season. They come off a loss to George Washington and the team is 56-26-1 UNDER the total when following a defeat. All of which means a game featuring plenty of great defense.
New Mexico (-9) over New Mexico State
It's always tough to lay this many points in a rivalry game. But this one looks like a mismatch to me. This might be a better team than the Lobos brought into this game last year. Now that Cullen Neal has transferred there's some better karma on the court and the Lobos looked sharp in their first two wins. Star guard Elijah Brown and forward Tim Williams give UNM the two best players on the court in this one. New Mexico has a stellar home-court advantage in The Pit and a lot of size and experience to back it up. New Mexico State is definitely not better than they were last year. Without Pascal Siakam and Tanveer Bhular they are missing two of their best players and two of the biggest parts of their identity. New Mexico beat the Aggies by 18 at home last year and won by nine on the road. I think they will take this one by at least double-digits and I have UNM winning by 13.
IDAHO AT ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK
PLAY: LITTLE ROCK -10.5
There?s always some trepidation laying doubles when a game figures to be somewhat low scoring. That?s the case tonight as UALR plays host to Idaho. The Vandals will play their pack line defense and will look to maintain a slow tempo, and it?s not like I expect the Trojans to be running and gunning. Nevertheless, I?m willing to give the points and fade Idaho in spots like this until the team shows an ability to put the ball in the basket on a more frequent basis.
Little Rock comes into the new season with good reason to optimistic following last season?s great success. The Trojans ended up with 30 wins, including the double overtime shocker over Purdue in the NCAA Tournament.
There have been some changes for Little Rock since last March. Wes Flanagan is the new head coach following the somewhat controversial departure of Chris Beard. Beard first accepted the UNLV job, and then shunned the Rebels in favor of the gig at Texas Tech. Flanagan will have to make do without a pair of terrific graduated players, but let?s just say he didn?t get stuck with an empty cupboard. The Trojans are perhaps a bit of an unknown quantity as their first two games were against non-D1 competition. But this is still a team that looks as though it will contend in the Sun Belt.
The spread here is no bargain, and in fact, there?s probably an argument to be made that it?s a touch inflated. But there?s some real excitement surrounding Little Rock?s fan base off last season?s awesome results and there should be a big crowd on hand tonight as admission will be free to all veterans and service personnel.
Look for this one to be competitive much of the way, but I?m expecting the Trojans to eventually get rid of the Vandals. I?ll side with UALR to get there by enough to cover the number in the process.
In the Sights, Friday Hoops?
One of the focus points that I set aside each November are those Friday nights on the hardwoods in which a major program also has their football team playing at home on Saturday. It can bring significantly more fans to the basketball game than usual, and tonight the attention goes to the nicely renovated Schollmaier Arena. I believe this becomes a special setting for Jamie Dixon, and with his Horned Frogs up against a disinterested opponent it puts #578 TCU (7:00 Eastern) in play. This one has trickled up a bit since the opener, but there is still -18.5 out there in the Friday morning markets, and value extends to -19.
There was a lot of buzz when Dixon left the Pittsburgh program, where he had a great deal of success (11 NCAA tournament appearances in 13 seasons), to seemingly take a few steps down the basketball food chain to TCU but there is a reason for that ? this is his alma mater, where he led the Frogs to SWC championships as a junior and senior, and was inducted into the school?s Hall of Fame a decade ago (he was good enough to be drafted by the then Washington Bullets, but did not make the NBA cut). And to show the spark that has already generated, Dixon quickly made his presence felt on the recruiting front, bringing in freshmen talents like Jaylen Fisher and Desmond Bane that have stepped right into the starting lineup.
So this Friday night matters, the Horned Frogs getting a 98-62 walkover vs. Alabama A&M on Monday to tune up, with now a legit crowd to celebrate what could be a real turning point for the program. This is Dixon and the players selling themselves to the alums in town to watch the football team playing Oklahoma State Saturday afternoon, and the talent is also good enough to make it happen. There has been arguably the biggest upgrade at PG of any team in the nation, with Fisher and Teas A&M transfer Alex Robinson manning the position, each having eight assists in Monday?s win, when the team had 29 assists on 37 made FGs. Now two players that sat out that game, Kenrich Williams and Michael Williams, will play tonight, and freshman Kouat Noi may get his NCAA clearance today as well.
Meanwhile Jacksonville State will bring only a limited interest in the scoreboard. The Gamecocks are caught up in one of the most unusual schedule cycles ever laid out, playing only one of their 15 pre-conference games at home, that just happening to be their next outing vs. Dalton State. This is the fourth game in eight days on this first leg of the long road grind, and the issue of depth will come front and center ? the starting five played 167 of 200 minutes at Western Kentucky on Wednesday, scoring 62 of the 67 points. With Ray Harper under no pressure to win in his first season, taking over a team that went 8-23 LY, this one has a chance to break open, and the home team should go hard the full 40 minutes on a night that will mean so much to their coach.
I actually want to get in play on Siena tonight. I know the home opener crowd could provide a shot of energy early and Self has no reason to run it up late. My concern is with Siena in the midst of a tough road swing and a winnable game at Asheville on Sunday, will Patsos mail it in if it gets away in the 2nd half?
I'm going to play Siena but wondering your advice on the approach - does a 50/50 split between first half +13.5 and full game +23 make sense? Or would you value one over the other? Thanks as always.
This one is a tough read from both directions, although the price is beginning to stretch out a bit for a favorite that won't be all that concerned about a margin. A problem is that this is the kind of game where Siena can miss Lavon Long, and his ability to bang around inside and play defense, and there is a good chance that Nico Clareth may not play because of a knee injury (he didn't practice yesterday). In a setting like this I would want an underdog to have all hands on deck.
My free play is going to be on the zone-happy Syracuse Orange, who should have no problem disposing of Monmouth tonight, by more than the prescribed number.
You do remember the last time we breathed these two schools in the same sentence, right? It was Selection Sunday last March, and two of the biggest story lines involved Syracuse getting into the dance, while the Hawks were left out.
Well, Syracuse might be better than the 10th seed that made it to the final foursome last season, and the Hawks, well, I'm not so sure.
I mean, after knocking off Drexel 78-65 in its opener Nov. 11, Monmouth overcame an 18-point deficit against South Carolina, sent the game into overtime on Tuesday, and then lost, 70-69 on a buzzer-beater.
Something tells me the disappointment hasn't worn off, and the Orange are catching Monmouth in a good spot.
Syracuse is led by point guards Frank Howard and John Gillon, who have combined for 46 points, 27 assists and just five turnovers in two games. The Orange has plenty of talent, and will exploit the morale-sunken Hawks tonight.
Lay the points.
Phoenix Suns +7
The Phoenix Suns are showing great value here as big road underdogs to the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are coming off a huge win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, setting them up for a letdown spot here.
Phoenix, on the other hand, comes in extremely motivated for a victory after losing three straight. The Suns match up very well with the Pacers because they are both up-tempo teams with very good guard play. And few teams in the NBA have better guards than the Suns with their trip of Devin Booker (20.5 ppg), Eric Bledsoe (17.5) and Brandon Knight (12.8 ).
The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be rested and ready to go. The Pacers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. And with big games against Oklahoma City and then Golden State on deck, they could be overlooking the Suns here.
Phoenix has actually won 8 of its last 11 trips to Indiana outright. The Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss. The Suns are 41-17-2 ATS in their last 60 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Phoenix is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
With the market at -8 and 204, is there a good way you see to get involved on a "refocused" Clippers team after their poor performance at home against Memphis on Wednesday?
LAC is not an easy read tonight because there are higher profile home games on deck against the Bulls tomorrow, and the Raptors Monday. I can see them bringing enough energy to win, but there isn't anything about the setting that has them going for any kind of margin.
Hey Dave I'm leaning Celtics tonight vs GSW. Boston should be able to hang. Any thoughts on this one?
Although I like the ability of Brad Stevens to game plan for a game like this one, still no word yet on Al Horford getting cleared through the concussion call, and for as much as the Warriors have struggled in terms of defense and rebounding, Boston hasn't been any better in those categories. If the Celtics were at full strength it would be an interesting matchup, but it is much less so without Jae Crowder, and possibly without Horford.
Portland
Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record
Trail Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400
Trail Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest
New Orleans
Pelicans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Friday games
Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference
Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest
This one is a matchup of a team with one superstar with little supporting help against a team with a great backcourt duo and some fringe pieces. Davis can?t defend Lillard and McCollum effectively given the quickness difference. He can take advantage of the weak Portland frontcourt unit to put up his share of points. The thing with the Pelicans is that you can?t rely on anyone to step up and contribute consistently. Portland has a couple of guys that can put the ball in the hole. That proves to be the difference as the Blazers get the victory.
The Warriors are:
7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest
The Celtics are:
2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference
*Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Boston can try to defend all it wants, but no team in the league has been able to slow down Golden State as of late. Isaiah Thomas has done everything he can to lead the Celtics in the absence of two of their best players, but it just won?t be enough on Friday night. The Warriors have too much talent at nearly every position, and it will show in TD Garden. Kevin Durant actually has a little something to prove, as he turned down Boston for Golden State in the offseason.
Spurs vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +7
The Lakers have covered the last three meetings largely due to huge point spreads, but this time they have the ability to cover a single-digit line having won three of their last four games upping their record to 7-5 and 8-3-1 ATS this season. San Antonio has won four straight but just 2-4 ATS its last six games and the Spurs are 1-4 ATS following a win. D'Angelo Russell exploded for 32 points and Julius Randle added 17 points and 14 rebounds in the Lakers 125-118 win over Brooklyn in their first game back after a three-game trip. The Spurs won but failed to cover their last two contests against Miami and Sacramento. The Lakers are second in the league averaging 110.0 points per game and third with a .473 field goal percentage and they're playing with two days rest.
The San Antonio Spurs are:
6-2 Over in their last eight road games
4-0 Over in their last four games against Los Angeles
4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games
The Los Angeles Lakers are:
5-1 Over in their last six overall
5-1 Over in their last six home games
4-1 Over in their last five games against the Western Conference
Gasol is in a groove for San Antonio, which has scored at least 91 points in every contest of this 2016-17 campaign. Los Angeles center Timofey Mozgov scored a season-best 20 against Brooklyn after being held in single digits in seven of his first 10 games this season. The over is 6-2 in the Spurs? last eight on the road. It is also 5-1 in the Lakers? last six overall, 5-1 in their last six at home, and 4-1 in their last five against the Western Conference. Additionally, the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two teams. Look for this one to go over the total.
Pick: Over 210
My free play is on the new-look Los Angeles Lakers, plus the points against the San Antonio Spurs.
This full-scale renovation project is looking good so far, as the Lakers have already earned seven wins, a feat that took them much longer to achieve last season. Have to hand it to coach Luke Walton, he knows how to be in tune with this young roster, and the one thing you can say about this team is playing up to the level of competition.
Think about this for a moment: the Lakers have a better record than the Memphis Grizzlies, Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans. They've also blown out the two-time defending Western Conference champion Golden State Warriors.
In fact, three of the team's seven wins have come against quality opponents, that being Golden State, Atlanta and Houston.
The Lakers are scoring 107.1 points per 100 possessions this season, and the oddsmakers still aren't giving them their just due. The Lakers boast a 4-1 record at home, and will be looking for an outright win tonight.
Raptors vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets +4
The Nuggets got back on track with a blowout win over Phoenix last time out. That should provide some positive momentum. They already played the Raptors tough at Toronto, losing by three, and they'll be looking to get some payback tonight. Including the 'cover' at Toronto, the Nuggets are already 6-3 ATS on the season, when getting points. They're also 17-12 ATS the past couple of seasons, when coming off a double-digit win, 1-0 ATS this season. Last season, after winning by a point in Toronto, the Nuggets beat the Raptors by 19 points in the rematch here at Denver. They were +4.5 underdogs for that game, too. Consider grabbing the points.
Blackhawks vs. Flames
Play: Flames +135
With Johnny Gaudreau out for the Flames and with the Blackhawks off of a 4-0 shutout loss, everyone is going to be lining up to lay the price with Chicago here. However, as a contrarian, this is the type of spot I look for and I am rolling with Calgary as my Free pick Friday. Note that the Blackhawks have a great record so far this season but have been helped by their schedule as they have only played 6 road games so far. The concern for the Hawks is that they have averaged only 2 goals per game on the road this season and they are now playing the 2nd game of a 7 game road trip. Calgary will see everyone step up now that Gaudreau is officially out with a broken finger and the Flames have averaged 2.7 goals per game at home this season. They've had trouble scoring goals but that has particularly been the case on the road. Look for everyone to elevate their game here for a Calgary club hungry for more home wins and looking to make up for the Gaudreau absence. While Chicago will be a popular choice here, the Blackhawks actually are 0-3 this season when off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more. The Flames have won 19 of 30 (+$7,300) in home games with a posted total of 5 goals or less. The home dog is where the value is in this game as the Flames have a great shot at the upset.
CAROLINA -104 over Montreal
OT included. Montreal will play the front end of back-to-backs here with the Maple Leafs on deck tomorrow night in Montreal on Hockey Night in Canada?s featured game. This Toronto/Montreal rivalry suddenly has an entirely different feel to it because for the first time in 20 years, the Maple Leafs are relevant again. The Leafs are so relevant that the Habs have decided to go with Al Montoya tonight and save Carey Price for the Maple Leafs. Protocol for the Habs has always been to play Price in first game (get the win) and Montoya in the second game (free roll). Not here, which tells us that this game is a huge look-ahead spot for the Habs and/or that it is more of an inconvenience than anything else. If the Canadiens are overlooking the ?Canes, they will get burned and if they are not overlooking them, they are still up against it. You see, Montreal is not a strong possession team. They are actually not a strong anything team except in goal where Carey Price continues to win them games they otherwise would have likely lost. No matter what surface stat or metric you look at (other than goaltending), you?ll find the Canadiens to be a middle of the pack NHL team.
The Hurricanes are in year two of being under the radar. This is a team that was rarely outplayed last year but missed the playoffs because they lost a league high 16 games in extra time. They also lost games on the square because of weak goaltending. This season, the 'Canes are a better outfit and Cam Ward is providing stable goaltending at the present time so we won?t make that an issue. Coach Paul Maurice has made a decision to stick with Ward and it?s paying off. It?s more than that though. Carolina is a possession juggernaut again, as they rank first in time spent in the offensive end. They also rank first in Corsi for per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. The Canes are a top-three team at both ends of the ice. They create lots of chances while surrendering few. The Hurricanes are coming off back-to-back wins over Washington and San Jose while allowing just one goal combined. They outshot that pair 38-21 and 33-22 respectively. The Hurricanes have played the fifth toughest schedule in the league and they?re 3-0 against top-10 competition. Now it appears as though the Habs are more focused on Toronto, which sets this one up beautifully.
COLUMBUS +111 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. After a three-game sweep on the Canadian West Coast in Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, the Rangers return to the East with a game here before hosting Florida on Sunday. The Rangers are now 13-4 and have reeled off eight wins over their past nine games. Thing is, everything is bouncing the Rangers way from pucks going in to pucks staying out. The Rangers shooting percentage is off the charts but it is also unsustainable so regression will be working against them real soon. In those three aforementioned games, the Rangers were outshot by Vancouver, 38-25 but won 7-2. They were outshot by Edmonton 39-27 and won 3-1 and they were also outshot by Calgary 36-28 but won that one too, 4-1. New York constantly gets outshot. They are commonly allowing 35 shots on net per game or more but they keep winning. You cannot spend significantly more time in your own end than in the opposition?s end and expect to keep winning. The Rangers charmed life likely ends here.
Pittsburgh is a -150 road favorite in Brooklyn tonight. The Blackhawks are a -144 road fav in Calgary. Based on the standings, the Rangers in Columbus to play the Jackets is as much as a mismatch as those two yet the Rangers are a much smaller price. Why? It is very likely because the odds makers are fully aware of the Rangers extreme fortune so far.
Columbus has played the third toughest schedule in the NHL while the Rangers strength of schedule ranks 29th. The Jackets, after a slow start, are 3-4 against top-10 teams and 6-6 against top 16 teams. The Jackets have recent wins over Washington, St. Louis, Anaheim (twice) and Montreal while the Rangers are getting (badly) outplayed by the likes of Vancouver and Calgary among others. The Jackets have been an extremely live pooch at home all year long and there is nothing suggesting that it won?t continue.
CINCINNATI +7.5 over Memphis
It?s been a disastrous season for the Bearcats, but if there is one game in which the team is going to be ?up? for and come ready to play it?s tonight as they play their final home game of the season in front of 30,000 people in a stand-alone national TV situation against a team that has embarrassed them the last two seasons. What?s more, this is a bit of a sandwich game for Memphis, which dropped a gut-wrenching 49-42 decision to South Florida last week and has a game with Houston on deck. The Tigers defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game and 444 total yards of offense on the road this year, so there?s no way they should be laying a TD away from home.
