Fri plays

[gsp]

WLA went 5-4 while I went 3-2. A small winner is better than losing. Today there are only 3 games where I know the umps. Yesterday I screwed up 2 plays by trying to make something out of nothing. I caught myself doing the same thing today on the Oak/TB game. According to my stuff, with Guccione behind the plate, it is the fav turn to win. This is a very weak signal but one that will keep me off the dog. In other words, no play. I believe these are worth looking at.

Dogs
Balt + 160

Totals
Min u 8'
Balt u 8'

I apoligize to anyone that went on the totals in SD and Atl yesterday. SD should have been a no play and I am still trying to figure how I made a strong under in Atl into an over (I even played it). These might not win today but it won't be because of total stupidity on the idiot capper's part.

 

[Dr Raider]

gsp,

I know that you know your stuff, but don't you think the Umpire stats are only a very small factor in the outcome of a game?

Yesterday, I was sucked into the Cubs-Pirates under, but I really doubt that since the Ump's record was 7 overs and 2 unders that we can blame the 9-8 score on him.

Watching more and more of these games this season, it seems to me that a very large percentage of outcomes (either total score or side), is just a matter of luck.

GL

 

[gsp]

Dr Raider, I've been watching these guys for 3 years. Their over under records can be very mis-leading. That total in Pit yesterday was as close to a lock as you will ever see. The 7-2 record you refer to was only the tip of the iceberg. If you play only their o/u records for the rest of the year you might come out a little ahead and then you might not.

I started to put this in here the other day and didn't. I will now. I won't name the ump but 3 years ago (that's when I started doing this stuff) this ump's record was 19-12 over. About a third of the way thru the season I picked up on a situation that was present when his games went over. Turned out that that situation was present in 18 of his 19 overs. Last year he worked with a different crew and his record was 16-17. This year he is almost all unders and I havn't been able to win a penny on him, yet. He isn't the only one. Don't look past what is going on this year when looking at umps (totals). That will only get you in trouble. That's the reason when I screw up a play like I did on Atl yesterday I really get irritated at myself. Remember, in all sports the officials are the only ones that can control the game. That's the last I'll say on this subject this year.

 

[kcwolf]

gsp,

I've told this before, but I need to say it again. Really appreciate all you do and the support you give me, just don't have much time to reply lately.

gl today, have already capped the BAL & under as a go. Just researching a little more information.

Wanted to reply to your thread yesterday on rating plays. I feel I'm fairly good at rating plays over the years and would like to give you my imput.

Rating plays is definitely dangerous if you don't know what you are doing, and even then you will end up with losing days, going 3-2, maybe 4-2, losing money.

First off, plays should be rated no more than 2 units apart, and I deviate from that more than I would like, as you have witnessed. But it works if you really pattern the keys to every game.

Not willing to write a book today, but will use baseball as an example today.

I have a set of keys for every sport I play. In MLB, these keys vary as the season progresses. I have 12 -18 keys, depending on the time of year. Right now, I'm at 14 without counting. If I make a wager of 1 1/2 more or two, you better believe 85%, OR MORE, fall into the key plus range.

On top of that, I look for the intangibles, if there are any. They all need to be a plus. Intangibles don't show up often.

An example of an intangible was when Paul Pierce, Celtics, said the Nets have no heart down the stretch and they can't guard me. Loosely translated, but look at the results since.

Look at Sabathia when he invited in shady characters, embarassing the whole team. Two easy winners playing against him to times in a row. Went back on him last time out.

In closing, to rate plays, you must have a set number of keys in any sport to base any type of criteria for supporting extra units.

gl today gsp!

kcwolf

 

[gsp]

Thanks KC. We'll get into it more later. Going with

Balt + 160
u 8'
CWS + 170
SF - 145
SD - 110

Good luck everyone

 

[Tman]

gsp, just wondering if you always "list" all of your pitchers or if you just play "action" I noticed a change in the Bal game and i was on them as well. Keep up the great work, always look at your plays.