Gator Bowl
RU 1st Half (+7.5) 1 unit. yeah, that's it. even that is a forced play, due to my commitment to bet every bowl game. rutgers has absolutely nothing to lose, and maybe they'll hang around for a half.
Sun Bowl
CMU (ML) 4 units to win . for the life of me, i can't tell what the line is on this game. some places show wazzou -7, some others show -1. i'll try to remember to update my wager after i put it in, but it probably won't be until thursday or friday. either way, i'm taking a shot with the chips to win this game. the cougars have gone from facing a miami team that probably didn't give a fuck about the sun bowl to a chippawa team that will be highly motivated to face a power 5 team. i'm going to keep this one simple. nichols has ran for at least 136 yards in 7 straight games. he's topped 190 in 4 of their last 5 games. well, you say, that was against mac defenses. and that's a fair point. except the coogs are 99th in the country, giving up 4.66 yards/carry.
Cotton Bowl
cincinnati 1st Half (+7.5) 2 units
1st Half under (29.5) 2 units
cincinnati (+13.5) 2 units
cincinnati (ML) 1 unit to win 4. my initial thought was to either play 'bama minus the points or cincinnati on the ML. but i decided, fuck it, it's only money, and i'm going all-in on the bearcats. no, i'm still don't really believe they are for real, even after their 2nd straight perfect regular season. but they are going to have a lot of confidence coming into this game. between their road win at ND this year and their last-second loss to georgia in last year's peach bowl, i don't think they're going to be intimidated by the tide. they are going to come out fired up and try to go toe-to-toe with 'bama. whether or not they can really do that for 60 minutes is debatable. but if they can come out and play great defense for the first 30 minutes, i'll at least make a profit on this game. anything after that would be gravy.
Orange Bowl
georgia (-7.5) 10 units. obviously a huge bet for me. i don't see how the wolverines can keep this game close. just two notes, because, to me, there's just not much to talk about on this game. i think georgia is far better.
1) back when i was handicapping michigan/michigan st, my main takeaway was that neither team was actually all that good. and, honestly, i haven't seen anything to change my mind. sure, the wolverines beat ohio st. but so did oregon.
2) georgia clearly was not able to handle the aerial attack from alabama. simply put, michigan is completely incapable of anything similar to that. they rely on the ground game. in fact, on the season they average only 4 more yards passing per game than rushing. so they need to be able to run the ball to have a chance. and, as you might expect, georgia is #3 in the country, allowing 2.6 yards/carry. mcnamara is going to have to make plays with his arm, and i don't see that happening with any regularity.
the michigan TT under is also a pretty solid bet, but i'll have enough money on this game. not sure if i want to add any more.
*side note* i hope to have time to post my 1/1 write-ups tomorrow, but these lines are moving and i just wanted to post the 3 bets i already made a couple weeks ago...
arkansas (ML)
ok st (ML)
utah (ML)
*extra side note* 1/1 is usually when i start getting my ass handed to me on bowl games.
RU 1st Half (+7.5) 1 unit. yeah, that's it. even that is a forced play, due to my commitment to bet every bowl game. rutgers has absolutely nothing to lose, and maybe they'll hang around for a half.
Sun Bowl
CMU (ML) 4 units to win . for the life of me, i can't tell what the line is on this game. some places show wazzou -7, some others show -1. i'll try to remember to update my wager after i put it in, but it probably won't be until thursday or friday. either way, i'm taking a shot with the chips to win this game. the cougars have gone from facing a miami team that probably didn't give a fuck about the sun bowl to a chippawa team that will be highly motivated to face a power 5 team. i'm going to keep this one simple. nichols has ran for at least 136 yards in 7 straight games. he's topped 190 in 4 of their last 5 games. well, you say, that was against mac defenses. and that's a fair point. except the coogs are 99th in the country, giving up 4.66 yards/carry.
Cotton Bowl
cincinnati 1st Half (+7.5) 2 units
1st Half under (29.5) 2 units
cincinnati (+13.5) 2 units
cincinnati (ML) 1 unit to win 4. my initial thought was to either play 'bama minus the points or cincinnati on the ML. but i decided, fuck it, it's only money, and i'm going all-in on the bearcats. no, i'm still don't really believe they are for real, even after their 2nd straight perfect regular season. but they are going to have a lot of confidence coming into this game. between their road win at ND this year and their last-second loss to georgia in last year's peach bowl, i don't think they're going to be intimidated by the tide. they are going to come out fired up and try to go toe-to-toe with 'bama. whether or not they can really do that for 60 minutes is debatable. but if they can come out and play great defense for the first 30 minutes, i'll at least make a profit on this game. anything after that would be gravy.
Orange Bowl
georgia (-7.5) 10 units. obviously a huge bet for me. i don't see how the wolverines can keep this game close. just two notes, because, to me, there's just not much to talk about on this game. i think georgia is far better.
1) back when i was handicapping michigan/michigan st, my main takeaway was that neither team was actually all that good. and, honestly, i haven't seen anything to change my mind. sure, the wolverines beat ohio st. but so did oregon.
2) georgia clearly was not able to handle the aerial attack from alabama. simply put, michigan is completely incapable of anything similar to that. they rely on the ground game. in fact, on the season they average only 4 more yards passing per game than rushing. so they need to be able to run the ball to have a chance. and, as you might expect, georgia is #3 in the country, allowing 2.6 yards/carry. mcnamara is going to have to make plays with his arm, and i don't see that happening with any regularity.
the michigan TT under is also a pretty solid bet, but i'll have enough money on this game. not sure if i want to add any more.
*side note* i hope to have time to post my 1/1 write-ups tomorrow, but these lines are moving and i just wanted to post the 3 bets i already made a couple weeks ago...
arkansas (ML)
ok st (ML)
utah (ML)
*extra side note* 1/1 is usually when i start getting my ass handed to me on bowl games.
