Friday 2 cents

[EXTRAPOLATER]

That's better...
yesterday: 6-4 +4.75
season (archived): 9-10 +3.1

Rock and Roll

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Pirates(Wells)@Braves(Reynolds)
-Wells the real deal; 1st start in 15 days, last time out, after blister troubles, still looked great at St. Lou thru 5 (precautionary); only one start vs Braves with mixed results...and no defense behind him (Turner last year)
-Reynolds solid himself lately, but not overly dominating (not really his style); like most pitchers, Reynolds has had his share of success vs Pirates
-slight pen edge to Braves
-Pitt .278 last 10, .253 year vs R
-Braves .304, .283
-Braves 22-9 at home (hitting almost .300)
-Pitt 9-21, .253 vs R on road
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Pirates: 698, Braves: 837
PITCH: Pirates: 79, Braves: 74
Braves should win, but I'm hesitant to give them as much as a 60-40 edge here.
Price: Braves -200 (PV -7 at 60)
PASS

I'm thinking about the under, as I can get 9 at +coin, right now.
Both clubs above avg last 10, but yesterday at Turner, with worse starters, game didn't go crazy until Braves got their hands on the Rangers pen. Pirates pen comparable, maybe a little worse than Texas. If Wells can be stretched to 7 innings then I think this game can under.
PENDING

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Yankees((chubbier)Wells)@Cubs(Zambrano)
-Wells bruised calf fine; last appeared June 1st for 5.2 in relief; faced 4 batters vs Cubs in relief, when w/Chisox ('01), without retiring a batter; lefties hitting .306 vs Wells this year; only 3 BB in 78 innings work (42 K)
-Zambrano sharp all season and likely to be around for awhile; 8 shutout innings vs Astros last time out; 1st vs Yanks
-Yanks .256 last 10, .272 year, .291 on road, vs R
-Cubs .176(!) last 10, .285 year, .262 home, vs L
-I give the Cubs a slight BP edge here
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Yanks: 818, Cubs: 751
PITCH: Yanks: 80, Cubs: 82
After Cubs showed some offense yesterday, this game is close to a toss-up from where I fall. Zambrano has been very consistent. Wells has to a degree, but he has had his moments of being rocked...he can be had. The +125 I can currently get with the Cubs is not going down...up if anything. I'm waiting. Maybe I'll come to my senses.
PENDING

Tempting under. I see Pinnacle has it at 8. Both offenses exploded yesterday, though. Nah.

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Ghosts crowd the young child's fragile eggshell mind

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

A's(Zito)@Phillies(Wolf)
-Zito off back-to-back tough starts (for him), at KC & Minny; still, opponents have been kept to 4 or less runs in 10 of his 12 starts (5 times at 0-2); .173 opponents BA and era just under 3; 1st time vs Phillies (Thome 0-4, 1K, 3BB)
-so he's allowed 6 HR in his last 3 starts, Wolf is still an animal ; opponents hitting .188 (.193 @ Veterens, .230 on the road...does not compute Ya(wn)hoo; regardless, 3-1 at home this year, more K's than IP; 1st vs A's but has had some success vs current players in minimal work
-A's .230 last 10, .245 year, .228 road vs L (DIFFERENT source)
-Phils .185(!) last 10, .242 year, .224(!) home vs L
-Philly just 4 HR vs L on season (next worst has 8!)
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: A's: 716, Phillies: 658
PITCH: A's: 83, Phils: 82
A's look accurately favoured, at -125, but they couldn't get to leftie Willis yesterday (mind you Willis is a potential up-and-comer, but we got Wolf here). A's recent surge not that far back, but Philly maybe due for a home win (17-4 with A's 14-17 away).
Total looks sweeter to me here.
7 doesn't scare me, this should be a battle...wish I knew who the ump was gonna be. May add a second unit if I'm coherent enough during warm-up to learn who's umping, AND ump not a detriment to the play. For now...
PLAY:
under 7 +105
1/1.05

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Rangers(Lewis)@Expos(Hernandez)
-Lewis is brutal...'nuff said (2 straight non-pummellings HAS lowered his era from 8.40 to 7.39 though...total 11IP/12H/4ER/7BB/8K (1HR) in those 2, vs powerhouse O's & D'Rays)
-Hernandez pretty solid this year, with his 3.41 era; Expos had won 6 of his 9 starts before dropping last 2 (both 4-3 finals); in 2 starts vs Rangers he's 2-0 with a 7.07 era...funky #'s...Raffy and A-Rod have both hit Livan hard in past meetings
-Rangers .276 on year, but only .238 past 10 vs R (.209 on road!)
-Expos .211 last 10, .244 year vs R (.253 at Hirom); hit lefties much better on season
-Expos clear BP edge
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Rangers: 814, Expos: 700
PITCH: Rangers: 65, Expos: 77
Ugly game with no pitching vs no offense.
Rangers +135 is tempting, over 11 a little less so.
I have to give the Expos a slight edge here, say 54-46
Price: Rangers +135 (PV +3...give me 6 or 7 and I'm hoppy...)
PASS

May hop on the over later, if the ump becomes known and he's conducive to overville.

I Need Coffee

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One of these days I'm going to cut you into little pieces

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Mariners(Franklin)@Mets(Seo)
-Franklin's 1st vs Mets; this guy's been hot lately, and consistent all year; #'s better AWAY from Safeco (wierd), at 2.61 vs 4.15 era, etc.; should compile good #'s this year as solid pen backing up most 6-7 inning starts (he averages 6.1 / start)
-Seo 3 great starts in a row, vs Braves(2) and Phillies; I saw his last, @Turner, and he looked in command, despite the lack of a single K
-M's clearly the better pen here, as Mets pen is scary, plus the doubleheader yesterday
-Mets .244, M's .301, last 10 vs R
-M's .300 on road, Mets .255 home vs R
#s crunched:
P.OPS: M's: 798, (other M's)Mets: 706
PITCH: M's: 78, Mets: 75
Price is almost right (for me) for Mariners, at the -136 I can get, as the M's are smokin' right now. Not a Franklin fanatic, though, and Seo looked sharp from the game I saw, and certainly by his #'s. Price looks even.
PASS

The under is a thought, as the M's didn't exactly pound the underachieving Duckworth yesterday. Mets shouldn't make 5 runs here. Today's board is grim, so I'm gonna take a shot on a couple of hot starters (and one bullpen).
PLAY:
under 8 -115
1.15/1

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Blue Jays(Halladay)@Reds(Riedling)
-Halladay was rounding into form great, and even improving steadily, until his last vs Bosox...2 rough innings there blemishes an otherwise sparkling performance over the past 5; only allowed 10 HR in 239 IP last year, so the early homer trouble of '03 was bizarre (12 in his first 8 starts)...only allowed 2 over his past 5 starts since, 37.1 IP (Bosox got none); BB-K over past 5 is 3-30; lefties hitting .300 against him this year, with 10 of the 14 HR's; not many appearances vs current Reds
-a reliever most of his career, Riedling has had mixed success starting (good vs Braves, chit vs Marlins, in past 2...Fish last time); 1st vs Jays
-Jays .283 last 10, .269 road, .287 year vs R
-Reds .237 last 10, .242 home, .246 year vs R
-repeated from yesterday: the Reds don't score runs unless they hit homers
-loss of Shannon Stewart hurts Jays offense considerably, probably more than Griffey out, if he doesn't play
#s crunched
P.OPS: Jays: 811, Reds: 778
PITCH: Jays: 80, Reds: 69
I like the Jays here, but I'm concerned that the 60-40 I give them might be a bit homer-biased (Halladay is goD, you knowhatimsayin'). I see him going 7 or 8, trying to get the Bluebirds off the skids, which may save the crappy Jays pen from blowing it.
Price: Blue Jays -138 (PV +2 at 60%)
Jays should not be favoured this much. If it comes down to -120 I may nibble.
PASS

Total is trouble as Riedling is an X-factor, and I'm concerned about Jays offense sputtering at some point soon.
Hang on...
Reds under 4.5 -110 is my play here. Halladay have mercy on my soul.
0.55/0.5

There are few straws around to grab today.

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History shows again and again
how nature points out the folly of men

 

[Spock]

nice writeup's bud.

I was on the Over in the Toronto - Boston game when the Doc was pictching last time out. One point to remember is that Boston players have excellent numbers against Halladay and get to him every time out.

Cinci wont be able to scrore a lot of runs off him in my opinion.

Montreal bull pen used up a lot yesterday. Mebbe the Over Cashes. Texas boys shud be able to hit more runs in that small ground if the wind is blowing out.

Was thinking about the Oak / Philly Under also.

Have played Minny already.

Good luck
Spock

 

[8)ELVIS(8]

nice write ups good luck !!!!!!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Angels(Appier)@Marlins(Pavano)
-Appier coming off a couple of beauties, both vs D'Rays, and so-so on season; Angels have won his past 6 starts; solid middle-relief has backed him up; has good #'s in 6 starts vs Marlins; a few current Marlins have hit him hard, including I-Rod and Encarnacion
-Pavano rocked in his last vs Cinci; very inconsistent...either rock-solid or a joke; 1st vs Angels
-both smokin righties past, Angels .013 points higher on the year
-closer Percival still out, otherwise decent bullpen edge
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Angels: 786, Marlins: 768
PITCH: Angels: 76, Marlins: 71
Had the Marlins last series, but my allegiance to them ends for this matchup. Angels bats are too hot. I don't care for either starter but I'd take the Angels chances, with their pen, over Pavanoman. Angels 55-45
Price: Angels -120 (PV even)
PASS

Total: I don't think Appier is gonna fool the Marlins a full two times through the order, so the Angels are going to need some runs in this one. Can't see a barrage of zeros.
PLAY:
over 8.5 -120 (while I can miraculously get it...9 w/juice at most)
2.4/2

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Devil Rays(Bierbrdt)@Astros(Robertson)
-check out these #'s vs lefties the past 10: D'Rays .304, Astros .440 (.286, .289 on the year)
-former 1st round pick Bierbrdt hasn't panned out for D'Backs or D'Rays...this guy is very, very hittable...D'Rays lucky they have a decent pen, but long-boys Parris and Levine worked a combined 5.2 IP yesterday...this could get ugly
-Robertson's been respectable now for 4 straight starts; only good for about 6 IP, but 'stros have a very solid pen
#s crunched:
P.OPS: D'Rays: 734, Astros: 782
PITCH: D'Rays: 64, Astros: 76
I think a minority of our multiverse(s) will see a D'Rays win today.
Astros 70-30 seems reasonable to me.
Price: Astros -240 (PV -1...WAY to priceyfor me)
PASS

Might be a total blowout, so over lookin' at the 'stros hittin', and even or under the other way. Tempting to play the Astros over Infinity, but I'll K.I.S.S.
PLAY:
Astros -1.5 -120
1.2/1

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So you think your schooling's phoney...
I guess it's hard not to agree

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks for the responses, including the input.
Makes me a little more confident with the Jays tonight ... may add them if it comes down.

Anybody know a site that keeps run-line records?
I was keeping some myself, but its a bitch to keep up, and every other bit of data seems available.

Chit...I'm doing this late today.

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Every year is getting shorter...never seem to find the time

 

[IE]

I put a site up for your run-line inquiry on the bottom of the madjacks mlb resource page..refresh the page...

just change the date to : 31-Mar-03 and hit submit at the site.

mlb resource page

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Bosox(Wakefield)@Brewers((the crappy lefty)Franklin)
-we just need J.Gonzalez and P.Wilson starting today and we'd have mayhem on the board
-Sox just fine against lefties, thank-you, .297 last 10, .300 on the year, .283 away
-Brew-Crew a lowly .224 last 10 vs R, .246 year and .240 home
-Wakefield has good #'s vs Brewers (while old from his Pirates days) and current Brewers players haven't had much success; blasted in his last, @Jays, to raise his season era over 5
-other than the 2-hit shutout he threw vs Padres 3 starts back, Franklin hasn't particularly impressed (last 2 were fine, vs Pads again and hapless Dodgers bats, though); walks to many and allows the long-ball frequently; probably better suited to relief...or the minors
#'s crunched
P.OPS: Bosox: 823, Brewers: 719
PITCH: Bosox: 72, Brewers: 68
Bosox rightly favoured, but Frankie has actually pitched 3 good games in a row - I just don't believe in him. Wakefield hasn't been unhittable, either. Bosox 64-36 at best.
Price: Bosox -155 (PV +3...not enough for me)
PASS

Total at 9 seems a little low. I sort of prefer the Sox over 5, but that baby's -120, and I do suspect the Brewers will do something.
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Now it's Fossum (again)...I like the Sox more, despite Fossum being roughed up by the Jays in his last.

Guess my over play has no action. Over may still hold, as Brewers hitting lefties a little better lately.

FOR CRYING OUT LOUD.
Is it Wakefield or Fossum here?
(current) PLAY: (Wakefield/Franklin)
over 9 +100
1/1

Some signs that Fossum may be cheaper than Wakefield, if it happens.
At -120 or so I'm on the Sox, if it happens, as I have Fossum currently rated higher than Wakefield, so my 64-36 would still hold.
PENDING

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Orioles(Helling)@Cardinals(Tomko)
-Helling doesn't paricularly impress me...he can find the plate but has nothing (14 HR allowed in 65, era to be back up over 6, probably, after this game); minimal work vs Cards, but current Card players - the big ones - have dented him previously; good last time out vs Texas
-Tomko a step up from Helling, but a small one; current O's players have success vs in limited appearances
-Cards .314, O's .327 last 10 vs R (.283 & .273 on year)
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Orioles: 762, Cards: 821
PITCH: Orioles: 68, Cards: 71
Cards too pricey for me at -160 (PV even at my 62%)
PASS

Over 9.5 tempting, but O's went 6 scored, then 4, then 1 vs Astros last series, and it's my opinion that they've been batting over their heads lately. At least a small chance that either of these starters has a decent outing, too.
PASS

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Won't you believe it, it's just my luck...
no recess

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

My Thanks to the Administrator.

The link takes me to a resource page, which I have used here before. I'll play around with it a little later; I'm sure I can hunt me down the right numbers.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Royals(Wilson)@Rockies(Cook)
-Wilson primarily a reliever in his career; lotsa promise with little delivery yet; baffled the A's in 1 of his 2 '03 starts, both vs A's; Royals bullpen likely a factor in this one, which doesn't bode well for KC, as the past month has seen MAJOR decline in the pen's results; lefties hitting .350 vs Wilson this year
-In 12 starts Cook has thrown 3 solid, 3 mid, and 6 dogs, by my assessment (2 solid, a mid, and a stinker at Coors); chucks hard but can't find the zone (66.1 IP, 32 BB, 23 K); only 4 HR allowed this year; Rockies 2-10 in Cook starts!
-KC .246 last 10 (.257 year) vs R
-Rocks .251 last 10 (.248 year) vs R (.278 vs R @Coors)
-Mike Sweeney questionable, which would take a lot of sock out of a slumping lineup
-Rockies 24-8 at Coors, KC 14-17 on road, with most of those W's coming in April
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Royals: 730, Rockies: 762
PITCH: Royals: 66, Rockies: 68
Rockies should win this, especially being @Coors; lineup has plenty of lefties to pummel Wilson should he not be right on top of his game. Cook is difficult to back, however, until he gets his eyes checked. I call Rockies 63-37
Price: Rockies -145 (PV +3...again too small for me)
PASS

I'm grabbing a piece of the Rockies run-line. KC is hurtin', in more ways than one, this is Coors, and I have a little (very little) more faith in Cook than Wilson (both pens stink, I think).
PLAY:
Rockies -1.5 +125
1/1.25

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Now Myers is in for Philly...he might be as deadly as Wolf can be, from what he's shown, but coming off an injury makes him a slight X-factor here. I won't play the A's here, myself, but it sure looks better at the cheaper price, vs Myers, than what we had before. Guess I'm a spectator.

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Please allow me to introduce myself,
I'm a man of wealth and taste

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Twins(Rogers)@Padres(Peavy)
-Rogers good in limited work vs Padres, but several current Padres players have handled Rogers before; was pretty consistently mediocre to good this year, before being rocked in a very short outing by by the surging M's
-Peavy is nothing special, throws some heat but has allowed 13 HR in 74 IP (only 4 at home, where he's had 5 of his 12 starts); roughed up by the hot-hitting(NOT) D'Backs last time out; no current Twin has faced him
-Twins .231 last 10 vs R, .271 year and .263 road (all vs R)
-SD .286 last 10, .260 at home, and .239 year vs L
-Twins huge bullpen edge, and Peavy will be lucky to complete 7
#'s crunched
P.OPS: Twins: 766, Padres: 694
PITCH: Twins: 77, Padres: 72
I agree with Spock that the Twinkies are the play. Best I can currently is -138 - too much for me. Peavy might keep the Pads around, and Rogers has not been spectacular. Twins pen may be a bigger edge here than the offense. I scored Twins 60-40
Price: -138 (PV +2...not enough...pass on the runline on Qualcomm)
PASS

I can get 8 (even) or 8.5 total, which looks low, but Pads only scored 10 in 3 games vs Tigers pitching, Peavy isn't a total joke, and the Twins bats have been hot and cold.
PASS

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Indians(Davis)@D'Backs(Gonzalez)
-Davis does not impress, neither does the Injuns pen
-alledgedly the youngest player currently in the majors (20), Gonzalez survived a beating by the Padres in his major league debut (Pads hit .370 through 5.2 IP) to pick up the W (10-4); a total X-factor...not impressive so far
-D'Backs HAD a solid BP, but now Mantei is out and starting rotation juggling also throwing it out of whack
-D'Backs .270 last 10, .266 year, .283 home vs R
-Indians right around .240 vs R all-round
#s crunched
P.OPS: Indians: 701, D'Backs: 755
PITCH: Indians: 64, D'Backs: 71
I see the D'Backs pulling their record up to .500 on the year at home (currently 16-17), where they've hit quite well. Injuns should oblige at 9-21 on the road, and 0-3 so far in interleague play. D'Backs 64-36
Price: D'Backs -125 (PV +8)
PLAY:
D'Backs
2.5/2

Total is a pass, here, due to the side play, the X-factor in Gonzalez, and the inconsistent offenses. No way I would play this under 9.5, mind you.

I can't believe I'm thinking about hitting McDonalds for lunch.
Somebody slap me.

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Seems that the wrath of the gods got a punch on the nose
and it started to flow, I think I might be sinking

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Is this chit easy to follow?...it's an effort not to majorly digress, but I digress...

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ChiSox(Buehrle)@Dodgers(Ishii)
-Buehrle is tough to figure this year; I saw both of his recent starts against the Jays, his 2nd and 3rd to last, and he cruised right along until some adversity came, and then fell apart; one game the defense screwed him, as it has all year, but he still responded miserably...not picking his teammates up, and he wasn't particularly mowing everyone down (though not really his thing); current Dodgers players have done minimal damage vs him in a few meetings
-Ishii looks even better than he did last year, when he had serious homer trouble; he's allowed 4 this year in 61.2, opponents hitting .182 against him at Dodger Stadium, where all 4 HR's have (surprisingly) come; problem with Ishii is duration, as he averages less than 6 IP per start and has only completed 7 once
-LA one of the top pens, Chisox average at best
-LA hits lefties much better (than righties) in all categories: home (.272), last 10 (.279), and for the year (.283); they also just faced lefty starters in 2 of the 3 games with the Royals (didn't exactly scorch either one)
-Chisox better vs lefties as well: .250 last 10 and .264 on the year, only .241 on the road
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: Chisox: 757, Dodgers: 768
PITCH: Chisox: 74, Dodgers: 83
Dodgers bats are always a risk, but I can afford to play this one without the dang runline (thank-you Mr. McGriff). Chisox look grim, Buehrle's not fooling anyone this year, and Chisox bats don't intimidate. This is a series where LA could begin another nice winning streak, a la Mariners...they play the Tigers after this set with Chicago. Dodgers 65-35
Price: Dodgers -140 (+6)
2.8/2

Matchup suggests an under, perhaps, but both clubs hitting lefties MUCH better than they are righties, and these 2 starters probably don't deserve a 7....with juice...go get 'em over players!

Speaking of totals...I'm reading an interesting book on the history of sports wagering: claims the first (of consequence) total play ever made was in 1964, when Bill Dark was asked for a bet that there would be a shutout in an April game with Jim Maloney vs Sandy Koufax. Dark decided to make the bet whether or not the total would be more or less than 3.5. The Man lost this one, as Koufax blanked the Reds 3-0. Cool, aye?

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Tigers(Bonderman)@Giants(Rueter)
-Bonderman looks like he needs some time; at only 20 years old he has struggled most of the year, really only impressing once, that in a start vs the A's, who drafted him in the 1st round of the 2001 draft
-Rueter is 6-1 this year, and threw a beauty his last time out vs Rockies, but has had his rough moments...not sure I trust this guy, though the HR's are way down from previous years (only 2 in 73 IP), and his #'s are a fair bit better at home
-Tigers grim in every offensive (to their fans, no doubt) way
-Giants around .260 last 10 and year vs R, but goes up to .271 at Pac Bell
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Tigers: 599, Giants: 769
PITCH: Tigers: 71, Giants: 77
Giants should certainly win this one. Price makes me gag. Giants 75-25 is as high as I can go.
Price: Giants -280 (gag)(PV +1...negligable)
PASS

Giants runline attractive for such a large favorite. I'm lopping off 15 from my number to get 60 (a number of 1-run wins by SF, and 1-run losses by Tigers). Still gives me value (if true).
Price: Giants -1.5 -120 (PV +5)
PLAY:
Giants -1.5 -120
1.2/1

Total might be low at 8, but Rueter is still working on a string of zeros, Tigers bats are minimal threat, and Tigers have a decent pen.

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There's too much confusion...I can't get no relief

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Overall Picture: (all scheduled must go)

A's@Phillies under 7 1/1.05 (looks like refund if Myers goes)
M's@Mets under 8 1.15/1
Reds under 4.5 0.55/0.5
Bosox@Brewers over 9 1/1
Rockies -1.5 1/1.25
D'Backs 2.5/2
Dodgers 2.8/2
Giants -1.5 1.2/1


May Your Free Will Bring You Fortune

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Closed my eyes and I slipped away

 

[Spock]

good luck bud ..

regarding Rogers .. in his last start againts Seattle i think out of the 6 people who had hits against him to start the game all except 1 were properly hit. .

most were miscues or bloopers which landed in no man's land.

If I remember right he threw 18 of first 26 pitches for strikes .. or something like that but could not get the damn out .. .

I think he will bounce back against the Pads .. . Minny shud be able to score more than the Pads .. and Minny closer has been acting like he is Smoltz ..

Agree with Rockies .. Giants [dont trust this team at all] ..

Can the Brewers score against the knucleballer .. .. mebbe Boston will get the runs all by themselves ..

Cheers and good luck bud
Spock