friday 2 strong plays

[mack the knife]

I don't post nba plays here, but I've posted mlb last year.

2 plays that I have sand out as very very solid.

Hou +6 and Det under 183

Philly is an atrocious 4-20 ats when favored at home by 4 or more this year. They simply don't cover when they win. West vs east doesn't hurt. Hou off a nasty loss(es), where they turned the ball over 21 times to mlw 10....while phillu can harass hou into TO's, don't expect such a lopsided stat in back-to-back, as that is what pro's do--they correct mistakes (and hou is good enough to do this). Each team is equal in motivation, although hou arguably more desperate, but I don't put too much chalk into needing wins.

det/indy battling it out for eastern supremecy of sorts. Late season games vs 60% playoff teams have a very strong under bias. Defense takes priority (note, dal/lak under last nite). Det doesn't score unless they are forced to run, and indy won't push too much here either. 90 pts is the max I see for either team.

good luck

MACK

 

[mack the knife]

FYI, my other 2 plays are: utah under 190.5 and mem +6.5....waiting to see if utah line rises, which I think it might. Mem might get 7 in sia, but otherwise is likely to be as high as it goes....they just got 6 from sa in a similar situation for the road team...and since they got whooped, there is a slight lne adjustment. But the lakers are far worse without rest than SA, so don't look for lakers to push them around. In fact, we know the lakers as the FAKERS because these are the types of games where they come out flat and outright lose.

 

[mack the knife]

off on all movements so far....uta down to 189.5...hou down to 5.5....apparently, I'm on the right side of these....

 

[mack the knife]

saturday

saturday

3-1

lac/ny under 194.

it continues to amaze me how much undue credit is givien to clips offense and the lack of respect their def gets WHEN BRAND PLAYS.

toss out the last couple of weeks because the clips with brand are very different. A little more controlled and brand alone lowers the score for the opponent by 5 pts. NY is out of gas after mile high ot game and back-to-back.

not only should clips win (i refuse ot bet the clips), but this should not even chalenge the total unless ny keeps it close enough to get foul happy. Even then, clips have aknack for missing free throws, just when it counts the most...

many games not lined, so likely coming back w/more, especially if I can get a decent line to go against cle...

MTK

 

[michaeljbird]

:clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[mack the knife]

thanks!

no -6 is a play....but wait on this one. a"better" indy team opened this way and went down a couple games back. Sure, cle got smoked, which is why the line opened 6 again, but if davis does not play, cle might suprise....waiting for line to drop to refect davis absence and if it is fair (-3.5), take it....with davis, -6 is fair because cle sucks eggs and I don't exepct it to go up so waiting won't cost us.

MACK

 

[mack the knife]

dammit...davis must be playing for this line to be rising...take -6