Friday August 17th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday August 17th 2007

yesterday: 2-3 +0.07
August: 95-78 +32.63
ml 45-29 +22.43
rl 6-4 +0.84
totals 19-13 +3.94
parlays 25-32 +5.42
system picks 22-14 in August (61.1%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 28-19 in August (59.6%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Cubs 53% (-124)-3
mets 69 (-140)+10 RL 55 (+117)+8
Fla 57 (-135)-1
Pitt 61 (-125)+5
ariz 68 (-145)+8 RL 54 (+113)+7
cin 51 (+116)+4
Sd 68 (-208)even RL 53 (+114)+6
col 54 (+110)+6
(1)laa 54 (-120)-1
(2)Bost 73 (-188)+7 RL 59 (+108)+10
Nyy 58 (-185)-7 det 42 (+177)+5
Tor 75 (-160)+13 RL 61 (+127)+16
Tb 55 (+112)+7
tex 54 (+132)+10
Seat 69 (-160)+7 RL 54 (+132)+10
kc 52 (+105)+3

system totals

cin@Mil ov9.5 66% (-103)+15
col@Lad ov8.5 68 (-107)+16
kc@Oak un9 68 (-125)+12


Got up quite late so this is, accordingly, being posted rather late.
Wow!...I almost scored a whole tenth of a unit yesterday!
At least the 3 day losing streak is over?I think?

Six very high calls on today's board. Looks to be value with all of them save the Padres.
On the lower calls, some value appears with the Pirates, Reds, Rockies, D'Rays and, certainly, the Rangers.
Six system picks today, in all; after not appearing too often for the 1st half of August they have been returning with a vengeance. Went 5-2 with 7, Wednesday, so the last day with lots turned out okay (though I dropped a couple of units on the day?Bosox killed mid-week for me).

All three listed totals appeal to me a little bit; might try them all.

I'll try to do some further breakdowns.
Never be able to get back to sleep, anway?

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

mets ov4.5 -120 (+11)Mets really starting to produce, again, with Beltran back, and face the preferred lefty here; is a pitcher's park (but so is Shea) but Chico hasn't looked great lately; runline might be a better play but I think that they can score 5; Mets 7-day OPS at a lofty .839
Nats un4 -120 (-10)Glavine has good numbers vs Nats including 1 beauty in '07; Nats hefty scoring streak is a week or two old, now--they're back to not hitting; Nats 7-day OPS at .713 :com:

Fla ov5 +125 (+6)they prefer lefties, too (greatly), and Zito's had 1 horrible game against them already this year...great price; Marlins 7-day OPS at a solid .819

Braves un4 -130 (-16)this one looks sweet; Webb is working on (at least) 32 consecutive scoreless innings pitched...that's his last 4 starts;he's 1-1 with a 1.53 era vs the Braves in 4 starts (none '07); he pitched 7 shutout innings against the Braves in his only appearance at Turner Field (in 2004); last few games the Braves now-seemingly-deadly offense has calmed down a bit--7 day Braves OPS down to (a still high ).821, but was over .900 in recent days; I prefer the moneyline but this one looks good...D'Backs pen has been solid lately, as it has been for most of the season
--D'Backs at +5, against Cormier & Co., for those interested

reds ov4.5 -120 (+8)Suppan had a crappy game at Cinci July 25th; moneyline pays better and with 5 or more you'd hope they could win it; Reds 7-day OPS at a nice, high .836
--Brewers at +4

hou un3 -110 (-13)got pushed on the last under 3 I tried as the middle relief (as predicted in my post) blew it for me; Padres runline, if anything, for me, as Padres 7-day OPS is at .811 (for the season they've been rarely over .800) and they've had some real break-out games lately...Williams has looked pretty good laetly, mind you; Astros 7-day OPS at .766

rockies ov4 -125 (+7)sounds good...Dodgers middle relief--which they'll need--is better than the Padres, I'd say, and Stults was good in his only '07 start (against the Mets, too (5 IP)); still, I think Stults is nothing special and the Rockies will score off of him...might get the 4 before he's yanked but they should get it within their 27 outs, methinks; Fogg has been good his past couple so Rocks moneyline (+110) looks a touch better; still...Dodger Stadium has been surrenduring a lot of runs this year so I might tackle this one for a parlay or something; Rockies 7-day OPS at .725, after being over .900 a couple days ago
--have Dodgers at -3; Lad 7-day at .680 :com:

(2)laa un4 -105 (-8)being tired might be a factor, here, as they're playing this DH day-night; Beckett's been strong, lately, and Angels not scoring much on the road; Angels 7-day OPS at .687 :com:
(2)Bost ov5.5 +110 (+10)I don't think I like this for the same tiredness factor; Santana didn't show much (good) in '07, before going on the DL, but Angels pen is solid, including their middle relief; Bosox 7-day OPS at .720 :com:

Nyy ov5.5 +100 (+10)might be the best way to play the Yankees on Friday; Yanks have beaten on Robertson before but no meetings yet in '07 (he, himself, though, has been worse than pre-'07); Yankees 7-day OPS has DROPPED to .816
--Tigers at +2

o's un4.5 -145 (-11)Burnett was fantastic in his first off the DL, but this is too expensive ... moneyline almost the same price and seems much smarter ... Jays might score 6, anyway (for a change), and the runline pays quite well; O's 7-day OPS now at .773...dropping from the high mark it's been at recently
Tor ov5 +110 (+14)I think they can score at least 5, for crying out loud, facing the (much) preferred lefty (Jays OPS vs R only .726 but Jays OPS vs L a staggering .832; O's will need their pen, which is garbage; Jays 7-day OPS at .701 :com:

Twins un5 -135 (-7)for August, at a 5, the Twins are 3-11, but have toppled that mark over the past 2 games, in a pitcher's park, and now come home to the friendly confines...looks risky as the Twins really weren't scoring but put the pedal to the metal Tuesday and Wednesday; Gabbard looks pretty good, but came out early from his last start due to stiffness in his forearm--if he can go 6 or 7 I think this total stays under as the Rangers pen isn't too bad; Twins 7-day OPS at a lowly .656 and that should be up-to-date, including their past 2 big games (it was down in the 550's a couple days back); I might tackle this one on a parlay, too--there's certainly enough high calls on my post, today, to find SOMETHING to combine it with
--Rangers at +3...Silva is trash, for the most part (with the odd gem thrown in), in my opinion (so what if he throws one of those rare ones today...this is the Rangers, afterall!) - just in case

cws un4.5 -135 (-9)Batista has good numbers vs the Pale Hose, including from 2007; Chisox 7-day OPS at .688 :com: ; my investment in the moneyline suits me just fine
M's ov5 -110 (+7)this number would be a lot higher but Jose just had a nice, long (5 IP), scoreless relief appearance against these very same Mariners; Jose still, likely, gets lit up as he has in his starts all season long; Chisox middle relief is pathetic so any yankage of Contreras (which probably means 5 or more anyway) should be Super-Gold for the M's; M's 7-day OPS at a juicy .805; got enough on the moneyline, I think

A's un4.5 -110 (-7)Bannister had 1 solid, though short, outting vs the A's in 07; don't know why Brian was pulled from his last start (I watched it...was against the Jays) so early...he didn't look that bad; A's 7-day OPS at .825, making this one risky; Royals pen pretty good
--have kc at -3


Chit...that took awhile.
Need some fresh air.
Got some plays in, already.

Breaking even yesterday hasn't really raised my confidence level...figure I'm still on a down streak, here.
Very good opportunity, I think, to get back on track today.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

It doesn't look like I'm touching either early game,
Cubs-Cards or Angels-Bosox

Like the line on the Cards, the way they're playing, but system likes the Cubs so I'll spectate.
Price and call look about right (ie no value) for the Halos in game #1; they kinda suck on the road and this is Fenway...a decent game by Bucholz and they could take the opener--I got no idea what to expect from Bucholz so I'm rating him about average for this first start.

So far I'm on all 6 system picks, especially the
mets
d'backs
Jays
Mariners
(also includes rangers & Bosox(2) -1.5)

Also playing the Pirates and all 3 system totals

Other picks for IF's include
reds
Padres -1.5
rockies
tigers :scared
D'Rays :scared :scared
royals


Will post picks eventually but I'm still playin'...I mean workin' on 'em.

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

alright...just so I'm not called a liar...

gots the angels(1) buried on on IF play

might do the same with the Cards--Looper's had 2 great games already this season vs the Cubs...also means they've already seem him twice AND they've been hitting well last couple; still...Cards are picking it up against lefties; I have the bats rated even for this contest with a one-point edge to the Cubs pitching...the other 2% is for home-field...normally it would be more than that, with the Cards on the road, but the Cards are super-hot right now so I reduced it a couple of points--still get a call on the Cubs...real tough game to call...like I say, maybe the Cards buried on an IF play

Got LAA(1)...super-buried...9th spot (unless I add 'em earlier..on yet another play

I'm in way too deep!!!
Can't touch the bottom
Can't touch the bottom


:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

PLAYS

system picks

mets -140 3.5/2.5
d'backs -145 4.35/3
(2)Bosox -1.5 +108 2/2.16
Jays -160 4/2.5
rangers +132 1/1.32
Mariners -160 3.2/2

other picks

Pirates -125 1/0.8

totals

cin@Mil ov9.5 -103 0.76/0.74
col@Lad ov8.5 -107 1.07/1
kc@Oak un9 -125 1/0.8

2-teamer
--d'backs ml
--rockies over4
+200
0.5/1

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--Twins under5
+157
0.58/0.92

12-team IF bet
1.Pirates -1.5 0.5/0.8
2.d'backs 0.75/0.5
3.mets 0.7/0.5
4.rockies over4 0.75/0.6
5.(2)Bosox -1.5 0.9/0.95
6.Yankees over5.5 0.75/0.75
7.Jays -1.5 0.8/1
8.royals 0.6/0.6
9.M's -1.5 0.8/1
10.reds 1/1.1
11.Padres -1.5 1/1.1
12.D'Rays 1/1.1
0.5 to win max.10.000.0

12-team IF bet
1.reds 0.6/0.66
2.(2)Bosox -1.5 0.63/0.6
3.kc-Oak un9 0.65/0.5
4.d'backs 0.75/0.5
5.rangers 0.7/0.84
6.Jays -1.5 0.8/1
7.cin-Mil ov9.5 0.55/0.5
8.rockies 1.1/1.1
9.mets -1.5 0.87/1
10.clev-Tb un10 0.95/1
11.M's -1.5 1.6/2
12.Sd -1.5 2/2.2
0.6 to win max.11.9

12-team IF bet
1.Padres -1.5 0.8/0.88
2.Jays -1.5 0.6/0.75
3.d'backs 0.75/0.5
4.cin-Mil ov9.5 1.1/1
5.M's -1.5 0.8/1
6.Bosox -1.5 1.05/1
7.rockies 1.07/1.07
8.mets -1.5 0.7/0.81
9.royals 1.5/1.5
10.tigers 2/3.3
11.D'Rays 1.8/1.98
12.rangers 2/2.4
0.8 to win max.16.19

11-team IF bet
1.Padres -1.5 0.5/0.5
2.royals 0.5/0.5
3.cards 0.5/0.6
4.(1)Angels 0.57/0.5
5.d'backs -1.5 0.6/0.6
6.Pirates -1.5 0.7/1.09
7.M's 1.67/1.01
8.mets 1.8/1.2
9.cin-Mil ov9.5 1.32/1.2
10.rockies 1.5/1.5
11.Jays 2.21/1.3
0.5 to win max.10.00.000

11-team IF bet
1.rockies 0.5/0.5
2.Jays -1.5 0.5/0.63
3.D'Rays 0.5/0.52
4.kc-Oak un9 0.65/0.5
5.cin-Mil ov9.5 1.1/1
6.mets 0.9/0.6
7.royals 0.65/0.65
8.M's -1.5 1.2/1.5
9.(1)angels 2.5/2
10.Marlins over5 2/2.1
11.Pirates 1.3/1
0.5 to win max.11.000.00.000

11-team IF bet
1.rockies 0.75/0.75
2.M's -1.5 0.5/0.63
3.Nyy over5.5 0.62/0.62
4.d'backs 0.9/0.6
5.Pirates 1.3/1
6.rangers 1/1.2
7.Jays 1.65/1
8.mets 1.4/1
9.d'rays 1/1.1
10.royals 1.5/1.5
11.Marlins over5 0.8/1
0.75 to win max.10.4

12-team IF bet
1.tigers 0.5/0.83
2.mets 0.72/0.5
3.(2)Bosox -1.5 0.53/0.53
4.Jays -1.5 0.5/0.63
5.royals 0.71/0.71
6.d'backs 1.2/0.8
7.rockies 1/1
8.Padres -1.5 1.36/1.5
9.Pirates 1.3/1
10.reds 1/1.1
11.M's -1.5 0.8/1
12.rangers 1/1.2
0.5 to win max.10.8

12-team IF bet
1.D'Rays 0.5/0.53
2.mets -1.5 0.5/0.52
3.cin-Mil ov9.5 0.55/0.5
4.rockies over4 0.62/0.5
5.Yankees over5.5 0.65/0.65
6.(2)Bosox -1.5 0.7/0.7
7.Jays -1.5 1.2/1.5
8.Pirates 1.3/1
9.d'backs 1.5/1
10.M's 1.65/1
11.royals 1.4/1.4
12.Marlins over5 0.8/1
0.5 to win max.10.3

12-team IF bet
1.royals 0.75/0.75
2.rangers 0.5/0.6
3.Jays -1.5 0.6/0.75
4.mets 0.7/0.5
5.d'backs 0.75/0.5
6.M's 0.82/0.5
7.rockies 1.1/1.1
8.cin-Mil ov9.5 1.1/1
9.Pirates 1.3/1
10.(2)Bosox -1.5 1.2/1.2
11.Padres -1.5 1.27/1.4
12.D'Rays 2/2.1
0.75 to win max.11.4


Going to stop there and hope for the best. Should maybe be chillin' with my current cold streak but I was one AB away from having this week go from semi-poor to fantastic. Anyway, last Friday through Sunday I kicked some serious butt (especially Friday and Sunday) so I'm hoping for similar results.
I've commented on the games as much as I can?I've spent a good deal of the past few hours 'capping Saturday and Sunday?maybe to find some good series plays (nothing worthwhile?good ones are way too expensive). Got a few killer matchups coming for the weekend so I'm expecting good things.
First gotta get through Friday unscathed.
Rock n' Roll!
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

just a heads-up for Saturday...

they've opened the lines and I see a couple, right away, that have tremendous value...

Indians (Westbrook-Hammel) can be had as cheap as -135...looks great for that price; Westbrook has great numbers vs the D'Rays, including from '07, while Hammel has poor numbers vs the Indians, including from '07. I think that the 'Rays have a shot tonight (got some small coin on it) but I think they lose it tomorrow...call will be in the high 60's when I post it.

Mariners (Weaver-Danks) can be had as cheap as -155. Weaver is coming off a beauty and Danks has been slaughtered by the M's in 2 meetings this season--one at home and one on the road (he's 0-2, 7.36 era as a result); M's just doing it to lefties, especially at home, and look rock-solid for this Saturday game at home to the (once again) slumping Pale Hose. Call will be close to 80%...might land right there if the M's ( :mj09: ) score a good victory tonight.

Numbers show a bit of value with Cards, Braves, Giants (looks good), Astros (same), Rockies, Yankees and A's (a system pick if they win (hope not) tonight). Yanks might end up being a system pick but the line is very expensive (-191 openers)--the runline will be a system pick, anyways, if it opens at -110 or better...as long as the Yankees don't get thrashed tonight, which is unlikely (might get thrashed but they'll likely do some thrashing of their own).

Totals I'm about to look at.
Might drop a word, here, or else save it for my post.

Glad I didn't (really) tackle these early games.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

gotta kill 2 more hours until gametime, so might as well make this thread as valuable as I can and mention tomorrow's good-looking totals...

6 system totals for tomorrow:

system totals

mets@Wash un9 65% (-120)+10 --
cin@Mil ov10 77 (+105)+28 --
hou@Sd un7.5 69 (-114)+15 --
laa@Bost un9 65 (-105)+13 --Wegner?
tex@Min ov9 71 (-116)+17 --
kc@Oak un9.5 67 (-115)+13 --


I'm already on the Mets-Nats game under; available as an 8.5 some places but I grabbed this juicy 9...Lannan has looked pretty sharp and Perez, while not sharp lately and with poor numbers against the Nats (incl.from '07), should be able to regain his form against a team now struggling at the plate. Hoping for a good ump, naturally, but didn't think I should wait...line where I grabbed it has actually moved to -130...may move to an 8.5 so I'm glad I took the 9...worth a shot if you can still get it.

I want to try that Miller Park game over (again...maybe every game in the series), just haven't pulled the trigger yet--10 is a pretty high number so I wouldn't mind seeing who the ump will be first...might cost me a chance for the +105 if I wait too long, though. Vargas has crappy numbers against the surging (7-day OPS over .800) Reds (all pre-'07) while I'm not expecting much from Ramirez against the well-hitting (just not pitching) Brewers (7-day OPS over .800).

I also wouldn't mind trying the Fenway game under as Weaver and Schilling are both coming off of strong performances and both squads 7-day OPS were under .750 (before today's). If they keep the ump rotation it will be Wegner, however, who's a bit of an over-lean for totals. One I can live without but am still considering.

Petco total is too low for Germano starting and for the poor strength of the Astros pen. I'm an Astros backer, here, anyway.

Rangers and Twins aren't really two teams lighting up the scoreboard in recent days, but Bonser has been poor lately and has bad career numbers vs the Rangers. Loe's just coming off the DL and was pretty bad for his 3 or 4 goes just before getting sidelined. With a half-decent ump (no under-ump) I'll likely try this one...don't like the side, anyway--got Twins mid 50's so no value at the -140.

kc-Oak call is partly because both starters have already thrown gems at the other team in '07. A's the only one of the two teams really hitting right now (7-day OPS near .800, Royals 7-day near .700), and I don't really trust Perez to keep things chill, so I think that I need both an appropriate umpire going AND a low total tonight to really get me interested. A's hit better vs lefties so (along with other reasons) I might end up backing the A's; Gaudin finally chucked a good game, and vs the Tigers to boot. 9.5 is a fairly high total for McAfee Col, mind you; Bannister & a fairly decent pen keep the A's to 3 or less tonight, somehow, and this play will look better.


I'll probably wait until close to 10 or 11 to post Saturday's numbers.
Still some adjustments to be made based on tonight's action.
Could just leave things flat (I did more earlier in the season) but I think that the slight adjustments that I make, late, make my final numbers more accurate.
Certainly keeps me on my toes.
Having a blast, for the most part, but could use some $$$$$ tonight.

That will increase the pleasure of tonight's action by a factor of infinity.

GL

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

MJ's is rockin' tonight!

Word on those totals I mentioned:

Umps in Washington & Minnesota help the calls a little (under and over, respectively).

Umps hurt those listed totals, a little, in Milwaukee and Boston (over and under calls, respectively).

:mj16:

Jays fall behind as a runner makes first base after a Burnett punch-out.

At least he got that key 3rd out.

C'mon Jays...this is a LEFTY you're facing!!!

Do It!!!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Ervin is NOT pitching according to how I currently have him rated...

...at least Josh is doing his part...

Go-Go Gadget MOJO FILTER Red Sox !!!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

add the Philly-Pitt total, over9, to my list of system totals for Saturday.

it was real close and the umpire, Marsh, is a good play for overs.


PEACE


:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB