Friday Fav's

[MrChristo]

2004: 36-26-2

Milwaukee -5

EDIT: Got -4.5 for the game.

League: 50-9 SU (Av. win 11.0) home 5+ fav, 1 day off 10- ats win as home 10+ fav. [Mil] (7-3-1 this season)
(12-1 ats this no. (Av. win 15.2) if total 200+)
23-3 SU (av. win 12.8) if opp last away.
18-1 SU (av. win 13.3) if opp off 10- ats win. (16-3 ats this no.!)

League: 32-113 SU (Av. loss 9.6) away 5+ dog, 1 day off 10- ats win as away 5+ dog. [Denv]
(7-23 SU (Av. loss 8.3) if total 200+) (0-5 this no. this season)
14-66 SU (av. loss 10.6) if opp last at home. (0-10 this no. this season!)
1-11 SU (Av. loss 10.6) if opp was last 10+ fav. (2-9-1 this no.!)

Love the Bucks in this spot. Both teams playing for play-off spots, but is there a chance Denver looks past this one to Utah on Sunday???
Don't think it matters. Milwaukee are 24-8 @ home, and if they win they cover the number.
Numbers say the line is at least 2-3 points too low here.


Really like one other game, but hoping for a better line.

 

[MrChristo]

Miami -5 (-120)

League: 72-25 SU (av. win 8.0) home 5+ fav, 1 day off 10- ats loss as any away dog. [Miami]
(31-20-2 (av. win 12.6) if opp was last at home.)
21-3 SU (14-8-2. Av. win 12.6) if opp was last home dog.
20-6 ATS (av. win 9.7) if opp last lost ats.

League: 1-16 SU!!(Av. loss 13.1) away 5+ dog, 2 days off 10- ats loss as home 5+ dog. [Seattle] (3-13 this number)
10-79 SU (Av. loss 11.7) on any rest.
4-33 SU (av. loss 12.4) if opp last lost ats. (10-27 this number)

Miami won 105-98 @ Seattle last game, and although Ray Allen didn't play in that game, Miami out-rebounded the Sonics 48-30!!
Seattle 3-6 on 2 days rest, allowing a huge 104.9 ppg!!! Seattle also 3-8 v. Atlantic Div.
Miami 14-3 as any fav this season, and 10-5 home v. <.500 teams.
In fact Miami are 15-4-1 last 20 when favoured by 6 or less!!
Heat are also 7-2 ats v. Seattle in their last 9 home meetings.

Miami still playing for a play-off spot, Seattle have nothing to play for. Hard to believe Miami are under-rated here, but the line, like Milwaukee, is WAY lower than it should be.

Good Luck all

 

[THE ONLY ONE]

GL MC