FRIDAY HIGHDAY

[Happy Hippo]

94-92-5 overall

1-2 last night

6-13 playoffs
88-78-5 reg season

spreads: 49-48-2
O/Us: 42-33-3
crap i shouldn't have bet on (MLs, team tot. etc): 3-11



OK - still lost 2 out of 3 of my posts last night, but i'm encouraged by the public trends I am tracking, which held up very well last night (the public was 1-5 last night)... time to get back on track :SIB

I think that the public has such a bad playoff record because everyone likes to bet during the playoffs, so the books can really take advantage of this... so tonight I am placing 6 bets all against the public and hope to come out on top - just a quick recap...


JOE PUBLIC PLAYOFF BETTING

11-25 (30.6%) ATS & OU
(doesn't include two games that pushed ATS according to the final lines which I am using)

5-12 ATS (29.4%)

6-13 O/U (31.6%)

LAST NIGHT:

1-5 (16.7%)


0-3 ATS (0%)

NETS vs. PACERS (7410 bets)
61% on Nets - Pacers cover +1

HEAT vs. BULLS (9471 bets)
63% on Heat - Bulls cover +1.5

CLIPPS vs. NUGS (9399 bets)
56% on Clipps - Nugs cover -5


1-2 O/U (33.3%)

NETS vs. PACERS
57% on OVER 175 WIN

HEAT vs. BULLS
67% on OVER 199.5 LOSS

CLIPPS vs. NUGS
63% on OVER LOSS



EARLY PUBLIC BETTING TODAY:

CAVS vs WIZARDS (1882 bets)
Wizards -2.5 70%
OVER 193 72%

SPURS vs KINGS (1423 bets)
Spurs -2 63%
OVER 188 71%

SUNS vs LAKERS (1003 bets)
Suns +3 57%
UNDER 211.5


According to these early stats I will be betting on:

CAVS +3
CAVS vs WIZ UNDER 193

KINGS +2
SPURS vs KINGS UNDER 188

LAKERS -3
SUNS vs LAKERS O/U 211.5 ?????? - public could be right on this one.... have to do some more research and see how the betting turns out.....


I'll be back later to post the bets I actually place, but hopefully this is some good info for everyone....


GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

 

[soul train]

:toast:

 

[Happy Hippo]

:toast: :toast:

hope to have lots of that going on after the games tonight



The Lakers have stolen home court advantage and will now try to make the most of it. They have controlled the tempo of the first two games in this series and I think this has the Suns frightened. Nash looked emotionally distraught even at the beginning of the last game, and if he is not ticking perfectly, then the Suns fall apart. I think Nash feels too much pressure and it is getting to him - as the expected MVP, he should outperform Kobe and the Suns should have a decided advantage over the Lakers, but this is not the case so far.

The Suns averaged 87.4 field goal attempts/game in the regular season. In the playoffs, the Lakers have limited them to 75.5 field goal attempts/game, well under their average. The Suns have only made 33 shots in each of the first two games, compared to their season average of 41.8 shots made/game. The Suns have shot 94.4% from the charity stripe for the first two games - look for this percentage to decrease over the series.

The Suns struggled at the end of the season and looked like a different team than at the beginning of the year. They were 4-8 SU & ATS in their last 12 road games of the year. The Suns are only 1-8 on the road this year when scoring less than 100 points, so defense is key for the Lakeshow, and they have proved themselves so far in this series. The Suns are 11-13 ATS on the road when they score less than 110 and I don?t think the Lakers will give up that many. And when the Suns allow more than 100 points in a game, they are 11-16 SU on the road.

The Lakers, on the other hand, don?t need to score to win - they have a winning home record when they score more than 90 points. When they score over 100 (the Suns allowed 102.8 ppg this year) they are a solid 11-1 SU at home.

Phil Jackson is a great coach, and with his questionable roster, I think he could have been coach of the year. Jackson has a stellar playoff record - granted he did have some ridiculous teams to help him with these records, but it is still impressive.... Jackson is 32-10 SU in the 3rd game of a playoff series and 88-14 ATS (86.3%) in the 3rd game (since 1990-1991). He is an impressive 11-5 SU & ATS when splitting the first two games in a series.



Kobe is bound to have a huge game soon. Marion has been shut down by Odom. Home court. And Phil Jackson is the man!!!!

LAKESHOW -3 win


PUBLIC: 61% on SUNS based on 4318 bets

FINAL: PUBLIC: 60% on SUNS



LAKERS are 13-16 O/U vs a total over 200 and 20-25 O/U vs total over 195
LAKERS are 8-10 O/U vs division opponents
LAKERS are 0-6 O/U in their last 6 games vs winning teams

SUNS are 23-28 O/U vs western conf opponents
SUNS are 7-10 O/U vs division opponents
SUNS are 0-5 O/U in their last 5 games vs winning teams

LAKERS vs SUNS are 1-6 O/U in their last 7 meetings


Average score last 5 meetings: 200.2 ppg

If this game goes over, then I think the Suns win.... but I?m betting against it....


LAKERS-SUNS UNDER 212 win


PUBLIC: 57% on the UNDER

FINAL: PUBLIC: 53% on OVER


back in a minute with the rest of my plays - and no more :talk: :talk: ...

 

[Happy Hippo]

CAVS +3 win

PUBLIC: 67% on Wizards based on 4674 bets

FINAL: PUBLIC: 66% on WIZARDS

CAVS-WIZ UNDER 195 win

PUBLIC: 65% on OVER

FINAL: PUBLIC: 67% on OVER

KINGS +2 win

PUBLIC: 65% on Spurs based on 4141 bets

FINAL: PUBLIC: 63% on SPURS

KINGS-SPURS UNDER 188 win

PUBLIC: 64% on OVER

FINAL: PUBLIC: 64% on OVER



JOE PUBLIC TONIGHT: 0-6 (0%)


:toast: :toast:



GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

 

[Brucelee]

Good call on the anti-public first game~ Wiz suck!

 

[WayneWonder]

Hippo great info.....I tailed you on Lakeshow, Sacramento ML and Cavs-Wiz Under. I watched 1st half of Cavs came before deciding it was probably a lost cause...great night for you....we both needed it. I knew you would get things turned around. Seriously though...I am not surprised you were able to turn it around....Great anti-poublic info so far.

 

[Happy Hippo]

WW

thanks - i was waiting for this night to come and i was feeling so good that i even threw in a few rare parlays and hit them all, so i've made up $$$$ wise for my bad start...

the Cavs game was tough in the first half - so many points, but i knew they would buckle down in the second half - but it was very close!

let's see if we can keep this streak alive...