Friday July 20th 2007
yesterday: 4-2 +2.63
July: 77-77 +0.05
ml 46-34 +3.75
rl 2-4 -0.5
totals 16-18 -3.46
parlays 13-21 +0.26
system picks 2-1 yesterday; 21-13 in July (62%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-1 yesterday; 23-28 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
ariz 57% (-113)+3
Fla 54 (-135)-4
col 59 (-128)+2
hou 55 (-109)+2
Atl 56 (-136)-2
Mil 64 (-133)+6
Sd 53 (-128)-4
mets 60 (-111)+7
Det 64 (-172)even
Bost 77 (-200)+10 RL 64 (+104)+14
seat 52 (-104)+1
Nyy 72 (-240)+1 RL 58 (-119)+3
laa 56 (-129)-1
clev 62 (-139)+3
balt 53 (+102)+3
system totals
stl@Atl un9 77% (-114)+23 --Cedestrom is a slight over-ump (crap!)
kc@Det un9 65 (-109)+12 --ump N/A
clev@Tex ov10 72 (-115)+18 --Holbrook is a decent OVER-ump
balt@Oak un7.5 67 (-111)+14 --ump N/A
Jeez?that was a close call there, closing out the Padres 1-0 win with Hoffman; I woulda had to totally edit my results for the month. As it is, I'm happy to be back in black for the month. Rockies seemed like a solid call to me, and I'm a little surprised at the number of zeros the Rockies put up (after scoring early) behind one of their promsiing young arms; Jiminez might be worth a shot in his next couple of goes if see we similar lines. Damn Yankees cost me my daytime 4-teamer as I hit the Angels, Cubs, and Brewers; Yanks a quick 2-0 lead, after the first, and they can't crack McGowan again?...gimme a HUGE break one time. I'm basically even for the month; it's time to get ahead of the game?
Today's board is not a thing of beauty. 9 of the 15 games are 50's calls, making them a little riskier than the rest (mind you, my low 50 calls are kicking ass this month; 51 through 54 are 37-17 for July (68.5% winners); I need low 60's to be doing that, not low 50's). D'Backs, Rockies, Astros and Orioles are considerations, but none of these clubs appear safe to back right now (Rockies might be okay, but Nats are picking things up, too). For the higher calls, I still need to decide if I'm trying the Brewers, again; they've hit Lowry well before and will have a large edge with the sticks, I'm just not crazy about backing Suppan as he's been mediocre lately. I'm way on the Mets; they're the only (affordable) system pick today. Tigers are kinda expensive, what with the Royals often winning games that they shouldn't be; Meche has the occassional gem, too, so there's no gaurantees here; Royals pretty pathetic vs lefties, and besides from the grand-salami that Rogers gave up last game, he's been rock-solid in his return; runline if anything, for me, as Tigers likely win by more than one, if they get it done at all. Bosox, with the monster number, will see some of my money, somehow; Contreras has been WORSE than total garbage so the Bosox have a monster edge at SP, not to mention their domination with the bullpen; Chisox starting to hit better, but Bosox still have a big edge with the sticks, too; I'm surprised that the Yanks are more expensive, tossing Mussina and all. Yanks runline is an option as both D'Rays starter (Jackson) and pen are pretty dang bad; Mussina can be scary to back, and the D'Rays just faced him in his last, scoring 3 off him on 11 hits in only 6 IP; Yanks should be motivated to get back to winning ways after failing in an easy situation Thursday. Indians with a bit of value, but Rangers unpredictable lately and I could see them racking it up against Carmona; over is more tempting for me in that game. Along with the Ameriquest total I'm looking at trying the Wainwright-James game under; both these young starters are in good form recently, and I fully expect the Braves to score much less than they did Thursday (would obviously need it); Cards still struggling vs lefties, but they've steadily improved there, month-by-month, as the season progresses (right around .700 OPS, currently); I'm surprised we get a 9, at Turner, the way these 2 guys are going right now; expected an 8.5, at best (edit: later discovered that the umpire HURTS the under). The totals at Comerica and McAfee are much less appealing; A's do their best work vs lefties and Bedard is recovering from a "stiff neck", not to mention that fact that he is 0-3 in 6 vs the A's with a 4.66 era (he's faced them twice this year, losing 6-5 and 3-2, both at home); Bedard has pitched once at McAfee, giving up 3 er over 6 IP; Blanton, also, is coming off of 2 crappy starts; 7.5 is too low for me to try, I think, especially the way the O's offense has come to life. Tigers games are always a risk to play under, and that total really requires a good game from Meche; 4 of Meche's last 5 starts have seen totals OVER 9, so I'll likely pass, unless I check the ump right near gametime and it's an Eddings or something. Should post this, already. Time to bust some moves.
See you later with picks.
GL
:SIB
yesterday: 4-2 +2.63
July: 77-77 +0.05
ml 46-34 +3.75
rl 2-4 -0.5
totals 16-18 -3.46
parlays 13-21 +0.26
system picks 2-1 yesterday; 21-13 in July (62%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-1 yesterday; 23-28 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
ariz 57% (-113)+3
Fla 54 (-135)-4
col 59 (-128)+2
hou 55 (-109)+2
Atl 56 (-136)-2
Mil 64 (-133)+6
Sd 53 (-128)-4
mets 60 (-111)+7
Det 64 (-172)even
Bost 77 (-200)+10 RL 64 (+104)+14
seat 52 (-104)+1
Nyy 72 (-240)+1 RL 58 (-119)+3
laa 56 (-129)-1
clev 62 (-139)+3
balt 53 (+102)+3
system totals
stl@Atl un9 77% (-114)+23 --Cedestrom is a slight over-ump (crap!)
kc@Det un9 65 (-109)+12 --ump N/A
clev@Tex ov10 72 (-115)+18 --Holbrook is a decent OVER-ump
balt@Oak un7.5 67 (-111)+14 --ump N/A
Jeez?that was a close call there, closing out the Padres 1-0 win with Hoffman; I woulda had to totally edit my results for the month. As it is, I'm happy to be back in black for the month. Rockies seemed like a solid call to me, and I'm a little surprised at the number of zeros the Rockies put up (after scoring early) behind one of their promsiing young arms; Jiminez might be worth a shot in his next couple of goes if see we similar lines. Damn Yankees cost me my daytime 4-teamer as I hit the Angels, Cubs, and Brewers; Yanks a quick 2-0 lead, after the first, and they can't crack McGowan again?...gimme a HUGE break one time. I'm basically even for the month; it's time to get ahead of the game?
Today's board is not a thing of beauty. 9 of the 15 games are 50's calls, making them a little riskier than the rest (mind you, my low 50 calls are kicking ass this month; 51 through 54 are 37-17 for July (68.5% winners); I need low 60's to be doing that, not low 50's). D'Backs, Rockies, Astros and Orioles are considerations, but none of these clubs appear safe to back right now (Rockies might be okay, but Nats are picking things up, too). For the higher calls, I still need to decide if I'm trying the Brewers, again; they've hit Lowry well before and will have a large edge with the sticks, I'm just not crazy about backing Suppan as he's been mediocre lately. I'm way on the Mets; they're the only (affordable) system pick today. Tigers are kinda expensive, what with the Royals often winning games that they shouldn't be; Meche has the occassional gem, too, so there's no gaurantees here; Royals pretty pathetic vs lefties, and besides from the grand-salami that Rogers gave up last game, he's been rock-solid in his return; runline if anything, for me, as Tigers likely win by more than one, if they get it done at all. Bosox, with the monster number, will see some of my money, somehow; Contreras has been WORSE than total garbage so the Bosox have a monster edge at SP, not to mention their domination with the bullpen; Chisox starting to hit better, but Bosox still have a big edge with the sticks, too; I'm surprised that the Yanks are more expensive, tossing Mussina and all. Yanks runline is an option as both D'Rays starter (Jackson) and pen are pretty dang bad; Mussina can be scary to back, and the D'Rays just faced him in his last, scoring 3 off him on 11 hits in only 6 IP; Yanks should be motivated to get back to winning ways after failing in an easy situation Thursday. Indians with a bit of value, but Rangers unpredictable lately and I could see them racking it up against Carmona; over is more tempting for me in that game. Along with the Ameriquest total I'm looking at trying the Wainwright-James game under; both these young starters are in good form recently, and I fully expect the Braves to score much less than they did Thursday (would obviously need it); Cards still struggling vs lefties, but they've steadily improved there, month-by-month, as the season progresses (right around .700 OPS, currently); I'm surprised we get a 9, at Turner, the way these 2 guys are going right now; expected an 8.5, at best (edit: later discovered that the umpire HURTS the under). The totals at Comerica and McAfee are much less appealing; A's do their best work vs lefties and Bedard is recovering from a "stiff neck", not to mention that fact that he is 0-3 in 6 vs the A's with a 4.66 era (he's faced them twice this year, losing 6-5 and 3-2, both at home); Bedard has pitched once at McAfee, giving up 3 er over 6 IP; Blanton, also, is coming off of 2 crappy starts; 7.5 is too low for me to try, I think, especially the way the O's offense has come to life. Tigers games are always a risk to play under, and that total really requires a good game from Meche; 4 of Meche's last 5 starts have seen totals OVER 9, so I'll likely pass, unless I check the ump right near gametime and it's an Eddings or something. Should post this, already. Time to bust some moves.
See you later with picks.
GL
:SIB
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