FRIDAY MADNESS

[phoenix566]

Yesterday:

3-3-1 -1.4

Overall:

50-36-2 +33.11

The dogs keep biting. Be careful with Fav selections this weekend.

Be back later with picks for today.

 

[phoenix566]

For tonight:

2* Phil E
( This should be a close game. I predict more of a see/saw battle rather then the 9-3 outing last time these pitchers matched up, especially since Smith never came back after delay. At the end of the day, these are both average pitchers who will probably go 6-7 innings and give up 4-5 runs each. I'll back the home team to grind this one out.)

2* Phil/Fla O9 -20
(See above comments + kudos to Nolan)

2* Atl O9-
(Going against both pitchers here whose combined ERA is 11.15. Nuff said.)

1* Mil +05
(I have a feeling this may turn into one of them 'kick me in the nutz' picks, hence only 1 unit. I think the return home may remind Mil how to hit and I think Sheets on the mound will give this home dog a chance to bite.)

1* CIN +05
(Cincy's hot, Cubbies not.)

1* Det +50
(I know this is contrarian, but if Sparks hits with the knuckler tonight, Det is a very live dog. Prior to his last outing against Minn, he has been, which at least justifies a small wager with the nice takeback)

That's all for now. I threw away my opinions on Cle O, Mil O, NYY O, & Atl, so take that for what it is worth regarding 'throw-aways'. I could not find compelling evidence for these plays, although I'm sure for at least one it exists. Anyone have some?

I have leans towards LA, SF O, Ariz O. Thoughts?

 

[Teddy KGB]

just throw all your maybe's in a small parlay.. this way u wont be kicking urself in the arse if they all hit.. or if they all lose

------------------
THAT ACE COULD NOT HAVE HELPED YOU!

 

[TexasBC6]

I agree on the Arizona over. 7.5 is way too low on this one. Astacio will get shelled, Colorado has a very strong lineup and should be able to scratch out a couple of runs against RJ. Let's not forget the ball flies well in Arizona (not like Coors, of course). GL tonight!

 

[phoenix566]

Thanks guys. Decided on adding:

2* Ariz O7- -05

3 team Parlay:

Atl, Atl O9-, Fla O9

160/713

I decided I like this parlays chances better then all the maybes. After looking at NYY O & Cle O, I was wondering what I was thinking to lean in that direction. All I could think of was the fact that many games seem to be going over lately. Upon closer review I think these may be good under plays, but don't have the balls to play them that way, therefore they are the weakest links, goodbye. I threw away Atl because I didn't want to lay the juice on Marquis. Since this is not a 'must-win' for the Mets, Atlanta should roll. Figured worth a shot in parlay with what I feel are other top plays.

I'll play Mil/Hou to go over as my top monopoly money pick. Simply to be contrarian. As a matter of fact, I think I will track this 'play' based on the bigguy consensus at or around 5pm weekdays, 12pm on weekends with day games. Play will be against the strongest concensus. Should be interesting...... Anyone track this or similar currently?

 

[TexasBC6]

Haven't tracked the "anti-consensus" play myself, always wondered about it though. It seems like sometimes there is a line that is extremely short one way or another, and therefore everyone jumps on it. Perhaps in more cases than not, bookmakers know something or have factored in something that the public overlooks. Just think about the money a book makes when a play that 70% of the public is on loses (usually a favorite). The books must make a killing. Am I saying it is a bad idea to play the strongest looking play on the board? Not at all. It's just we need to be heads up on these short lines sometimes.

There's my 2 cents.

 

[phoenix566]

Adding:

2* Bos/Tor U9- -20
(Riding with Nolan et al on this play ands the 2 other totals I liked above.)

I have limited data based on last two football seasons from a pool I play in where you pick every game against the spread. I only tracked plays where 70% or more were on one side and I threw the game away if the pools line was erroneous which happened 4 times.

Year 1 there were 42 players. 62 games qualified. Record going against consensus:

39-23 63%

Year 2, 48 players, 72 games:

49-24 67%

Now I admit these were mostly regular business guys and not 'dedictaed' cappers such as ourselves, but the results of this are not to be ignored. The houses stay in business because they make money. I think many of these games are where the houses rake it in. Uncovering trends such as these can help us take this potential advantage back from the house, and if not win from, at least not lose to.