Friday Night - Boise State

[Save It]

UPDATED RECORD:
Updated 2008 Record:
34W-26L-2P +$13,000= 57% winners

Hi everyone - been in a little funk lately - but coming right back tonight - this line is off - too much respect being given to San Jose State. Boise has owened this team over the years - sure a few close matchups at SJS - but overall have dominated this series - believe they are 8-0 last 8 games. Anyways I think alot of people think the Boise -7 line is a trap - I don't. Boise has been so solid on defense, and I don't see SJS scoring much in this one - I see a 24-7 type of win for Boise tonight. I follow Boise closer than any other college team (besides Wisky) - I didn't play the game last Friday - but as I mentioned in a post I would have leaned to Hawaii in that one - we aren't talking about 23.5 tonight, just 7 - lay it...I bought the hook so a 7 point win wins...gl!

THE PLAY:

BOISE STATE -6.5 (-120)
Risking $4,800 to win $4,000

COME ON BOISE - ROUT SAN JOSE!

 

[big papi]

UPDATED RECORD:
Updated 2008 Record:
34W-26L-2P +$13,000= 57% winners

Hi everyone - been in a little funk lately - but coming right back tonight - this line is off - too much respect being given to San Jose State. Boise has owened this team over the years - sure a few close matchups at SJS - but overall have dominated this series - believe they are 8-0 last 8 games. Anyways I think alot of people think the Boise -7 line is a trap - I don't. Boise has been so solid on defense, and I don't see SJS scoring much in this one - I see a 24-7 type of win for Boise tonight. I follow Boise closer than any other college team (besides Wisky) - I didn't play the game last Friday - but as I mentioned in a post I would have leaned to Hawaii in that one - we aren't talking about 23.5 tonight, just 7 - lay it...I bought the hook so a 7 point win wins...gl!

THE PLAY:

BOISE STATE -6.5 (-120)
Risking $4,400 to win $4,000

COME ON BOISE - ROUT SAN JOSE!

We are on opposite sides suprised you are on Boise. Boise is overrated. Not explosive as in the past but they have a solid defense. San Jose not a good offense but a solid d. I am on the under and San Jose. Think San Jose wins. Suprised you are not on San Jose ML. Friday night home dog public all over Boise yet line moved from 7.5 to 7.

 

[THE KOD]

gl tonight Save it

 

[BigFatLooza]

I like Boise St., but what scares me is that the public is all over Boise tonight (vegasinsider. com shows 80% of bets on Boise ML and 70% of bets on Boise ATS). Of course, the public does win once in a while. I will be staying away from this one, but I just can't picture SJSU hanging with Boise in this one.......

 

[Save It]

I like Boise St., but what scares me is that the public is all over Boise tonight (vegasinsider. com shows 80% of bets on Boise ML and 70% of bets on Boise ATS). Of course, the public does win once in a while. I will be staying away from this one, but I just can't picture SJSU hanging with Boise in this one.......

Yeah I always try to weigh the Public vs. Anti-Public into my plays - but as you said the public does win - and they win more than people realize. I have my system and sometimes they conflict w/ the public, sometimes they agree. If it was as easy as just looking at a site and taking the minority side EVERY game, well then it would be easy money every day right? I challenge someone to play the side and total based on the % day in and out to see the results. I've won a boatload on Boise games over the years - the perception they are putting out there is Boise is done, this one will be close - I'm not buying it - Boise wins and covers.

So SJS plays good defense - how about this Boise D - take out the Oregon game (they still are 2nd in nation on defense - just 10.5 against a game!) - and they haven't given up more than 7. 7 points against in all but 1 game. That's impressive. When push comes to shove, this offense can get it done and I do not believe SJS can. As I've said before, I'm not always right. I go w/ what my system shows.

GL tonight if you are on Boise - I believe it will cash at the end of night.

 

[Save It]

We are on opposite sides suprised you are on Boise. Boise is overrated. Not explosive as in the past but they have a solid defense. San Jose not a good offense but a solid d. I am on the under and San Jose. Think San Jose wins. Suprised you are not on San Jose ML. Friday night home dog public all over Boise yet line moved from 7.5 to 7.

The thing w/ the line move - its a half point - we aren't talking a whole or 1.5 or 2 points. Boise is not running it up as much as they have in the past. I don't believe they are overrated - I belive they are a very solid team. This defense is best I've seen from them - ever! San Jose State backers are going to have to put the faith in the SJS offense to get it done tonight - I don't believe they will. The defense of Boise is disciplined and has been dominant in every game.

Can't wait for the game though - one of us will be happy tonight - gl!

 

[kegray1]

I 100% agree with big papi on all fronts.

Not sure Boise can even pull this one out.
Low scoring game.
The two teams are a combined 9-2 this season on UNDERS. This is the lowest total for either, but numbers back that total.
Also Boise last 10 on grass, UNDER is 8-2.
SJST last 27 games on grass, UNDER is 21-5-1.

Also, Boise had better teams the last two trips to SJ and barley pulled those out. SJ was a weaker team then as well. Point is Boise has had issues here and I think the grass has had something to do with it.

Two plays for me:

UNDER 41 for 110.
San Jose St (+230 ML) for 50.

Good Luck

 

[big papi]

The thing w/ the line move - its a half point - we aren't talking a whole or 1.5 or 2 points. Boise is not running it up as much as they have in the past. I don't believe they are overrated - I belive they are a very solid team. This defense is best I've seen from them - ever! San Jose State backers are going to have to put the faith in the SJS offense to get it done tonight - I don't believe they will. The defense of Boise is disciplined and has been dominant in every game.

Can't wait for the game though - one of us will be happy tonight - gl!

Hey GL i expect a defensive struggle and I have a feeling some people do as well as the total has dropped from 43.5 to 40 with over 75% on the over. I predict 17-13 Boise but who knows could be 24-13?

 

[Save It]

Yeah everyone is expecting low scoring - then again everyone expected low scoring in the WV/Auburn w/ all the under trends - each game is independent though - people reference the last 2 trips there - what about the 6 where Boise rolled them including 41-7 last year? My point is - none of us know the result right now - we go w/ our indicators. I can see a 24-7 type of game - I also won't be surprised if we see 31-14 or something. My system has Boise covering tonight - looks like I'm in the minority w/ the board - should be a good battle - if SJS takes the cash - congrats to those backers - I go w/ what I feel is best, and I really like Boise tonight. Most likely the game as roughly a quarter of them seem to do - will come down to turnovers. The problem w/ comparing past years though is each team is different - this team w/ Kellen Moore is different than last year, year before, etc. Defense totally different this year (better) than last year as well. They held SJS to 7 last year - sure it's different home vs. away. Ok - gotta run - enjoy the game!

 

[vinnie]

I challenge someone to play the side and total based on the % day in and out to see the results.

They call themselves VEGAS & from what I see they do OK :shrug:

 

[Save It]

They call themselves VEGAS & from what I see they do OK :shrug:

Vinnie - you sure like to question me lately...don't get me wrong Vegas as a whole ALWAYS wins in the long run - i'm not disputing that - what i'm saying is if the % thing works on EVERY play, then i'm challenging someone to play every game tomorrow based on that - I know Vegas always wins - my point was because a site (where you never know the true validity of those numbers) that says 65% on team a and 35% on team b - it doesn't mean that team b always covers.

As I always say - people should do what they want - I don't ask that people agree w/ my plays - I play them as I see them

 

[vinnie]

Vinnie - you sure like to question me lately...don't get me wrong Vegas as a whole ALWAYS wins in the long run - i'm not disputing that - what i'm saying is if the % thing works on EVERY play, then i'm challenging someone to play every game tomorrow based on that - I know Vegas always wins - my point was because a site (where you never know the true validity of those numbers) that says 65% on team a and 35% on team b - it doesn't mean that team b always covers.

As I always say - people should do what they want - I don't ask that people agree w/ my plays - I play them as I see them

I usually agree with u just not of lately & nothing against u bud but I do play the devils advocate :shrug:

just the fact that I read every one of ur posts should tell u something

 

[Save It]

I usually agree with u just not of lately & nothing against u bud but I do play the devils advocate :shrug:

just the fact that I read every one of ur posts should tell u something

Hey Vinnie - oh yeah i don't take anything personally - just noticed you seem to disagree more than usual w/ my plays which is cool - nothing wrong w/ being on different sides sometimes - that's what makes sports betting so interesting - always a difference of opinion among alot of us - gl w/ your plays this weekend bud...

 

[Save It]

UPDATED RECORD:
Updated 2008 Record:
35W-26L-2P +$17,000= 57.4% winners

Started the weekend off on a great note 1-0 +$4,000 for the night...Boise should have won by 24+ but I'll take a 17 point win. Boise owns San Jose State - it was Boise's mistakes (INT for TD, fumble going into end zone, a few critical personal fouls) that kept SJS from being embarrased tonight. They might have been shut out - or probably no more than 7 pts. scored. Congrats to the Boise backers - and I know there was line movement - but I believe most on the Over cashed this one - another enjoyable game to watch...don't have my plays for tomorrow finalized yet - will post sometime tomorrow - gl as always.

--SAVE IT

 

[vinnie]

good call bud u nailed that one :toast:

 

[Save It]

good call bud u nailed that one :toast:

Thanks Vinnie - at least I was right on w/ the margin of victory (17 pts) - game was a little closer in 2nd half that I anticipated - amazing how one little fumble can change a game - instead of up 21 in first half, it let them back into the game - but that's football...gl w/ your plays tomorrow

 

[BigFatLooza]

Good call!!! Congrats for having the balls to drop that kind of money even though most of the public was all over Boise as well. I guess you were right, the public is right more often than most gamblers think.....

 

[THE KOD]

very nice call

:00hour

 

[rubiconed]

:director: Great Call !!! :toast:

 

[Rockvegas]

Great call last nite. Really helped my play.