Not doubting you, I like to read cfn.scout reviews. This is their slant on the game. I already knew the Lobos like to run the ball, I didnt know Fresno couldnt stop the run.
Fresno State (1-3) at New Mexico (1-2) Sept. 26, 8:00 ESPN2
Here's The Deal: After a disappointing start to the year, the winner will at least be in the mix for an interesting Mountain West season. Fresno State has been awful after its phenomenal 2013, and with the San Diego State up next, and three of the next four games on the road, it?s make-or-break time for the team that needs to ramp up the defense and hope for more consistency offensively. New Mexico needed everything in the bag to get by New Mexico State, but the running game is working and the team isn?t playing that poorly. Even with Fresno State down a bit, this would still be a major statement moment for the Bob Davie era with a dangerous non-conference game at UTSA up next.
Why Fresno State Might Win: The New Mexico run defense has been atrocious. New Mexico State likes to throw it a bit, so it didn?t do too much to try pounding away, but it still came up with 174 yards and three scores. UTEP ran wild and Arizona State ripped off big yards in chunks ? the two combined for over 750 yards and nine scores ? the Lobo defensive front isn?t coming up with stops at the point of attack and the secondary have to make way too many plays.
Why New Mexico Might Win: The Fresno State defensive front can?t stop the running game, either, and that?s a problem against the run first/run only Lobos. USC, Utah and Nebraska all had loads of fun throwing the ball, and it all started out with a ground game that kept cranking out yards in chunks. It?s not even the big play; it?s the constant five yards per crack that?s killing the FSU D. New Mexico should absolutely own the time of possession ? be shocked if it doesn?t have the ball for at least 35 minutes.
Who To Watch Out For: How many quarterbacks will New Mexico try out? Cole Gautsche is the main man, but he?s banged up after running for 53 yards in the NMSU win. Four different players threw passes including RB David Anaya, who connected on a 18-yard touchdown pass. Clayton Mitchem was effective, and Lamar Jordan hit all three of his passes, but it?s all about running the ball and all the New Mexico quarterbacks can do that.
What?s Going To Happen: The New Mexico ground game will work just effectively enough to keep the Fresno State offense off the field. When the Bulldogs get their chances, they?ll score, but they?ll never have the ball as the Logos crank out third down play after third down play.
Prediction: New Mexico 27 ? Fresno State 24
Line: Fresno State -5 o/u: 71.5
Must Watch Factor: 5: Roosevelts: An Intimate History ? 1: Red Band Society ? 2