Friday Night Lights

Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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Friday Night Lights


Gamblers have a trio of college football games to wager on Friday night. The action starts at 5:30 Eastern and will go until past midnight. Let?s take a look at all three matchups.

**Akron at Bowling Green**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Bowling Green (5-5 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) as a 13-point favorite with a total of 53. As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had the Falcons as 10 ?-point ?chalk? with the total adjusted to 52. The Zips are plus-325 on the money line (risk $100 to win $325).

--After winning its opener 31-14 against Troy, Dave Clawson?s squad lost four in a row. Since then, however, Bowling Green has won four of its last five games to get back to .500. The Falcons return home in this spot after winning back-to-back road contests at Buffalo (30-29) and at Miami (OH.) (35-14).

--Akron (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS) took woodshed treatment last week when Temple came to town and clubbed the Zips 56-17 as a six-point road favorite.

--J.D. Brookhart?s team is 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road this season. The Zips have lost four of their five road games by 14 points or more.

--Bowling Green senior quarterback Tyler Sheehan has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 3,189 yards with a 19/6 touchdown-interception ratio. Sheehan has one of the nation?s premier wideouts in senior Freddy Barnes, who has 117 receptions for 1,285 yards and 12 touchdowns. Barnes leads the nation in catches and is second in both receiving yards and TD grabs.

--Bowling Green owns a 1-3 record both SU and ATS at home but we should note that two of those defeats came to Boise State and Central Michigan, two of the country?s premier non-BCS programs.

--ESPNU will have the telecast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Eastern Michigan at Toledo**

--LVSC opened Toledo (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) as a 17-point favorite with a total of 65. As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had the Rockets favored by 18 with the total in the 62-63 range.

--Toledo has lost three in a row both SU and ATS, including last Wednesday?s 56-28 loss at Central Michigan as a 17 ?-point underdog. Senior QB Aaron Opelt returned to the lineup for the first time in a month, only to be intercepted three times. He is clearly still bothered by a shoulder injury and his status for Friday is ?questionable.? Opelt has a 16/9 TD-INT ratio this year.

--Eastern Michigan (0-10 SU, 3-7 ATS) is still looking for its first win under first-year head coach Ron English, who was formerly the defensive coordinator at Michigan and Louisville. The Eagles have lost eight of their 10 games by double-digit margins.

--Eastern Michigan is 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road, while the Rockets are 2-2 both SU and ATS at home.

--This is Toledo?s first double-digit ?chalk? situation since losing 35-16 to Florida International last season as a 19 ?-point home favorite.

--Toledo is 6-1 both SU and ATS in its last seven head-to-head meetings against the Eagles.

--The ?over? is 7-3 overall for the Rockets, 3-1 in their home games.

**Boise State at Utah State **

--LVSC opened Boise State (10-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) as a 24-point favorite with a total of 59. As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had the Broncos listed as 23-point road ?chalk? with the total adjusted to 61 ?.

--Chris Petersen?s team rolled to a 63-25 win over Idaho on the smurf turf last week. BSU took the cash as a 31 ?-point home favorite. Kellen Moore enjoyed another stellar performance, connecting on 22-of-33 throws for 299 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. For the season, Moore now has an amazing 32/3 TD-INT ratio that would make it a crime if he?s left out of the Heisman finalists that go to New York City in a few weeks.

--Boise St. junior WR Austin Pettis had four TD catches against the Vandals last week, bringing his season total to an NCAA-best 14. Pettis had eight receptions for 123 yards vs. Idaho, while Titus Young had six catches for 101 yards. Jeremy Avery carried the load on the ground with 110 rushing yards on 14 carries.

--Utah St. (3-7 SU, 7-2 ATS) owns a 4-0 spread record as a double-digit underdog this season. Dating back even further, the Aggies are 6-1 versus the number in their last seven spots as double-digit ?dogs.

--Gary Andersen?s team is 3-1 SU and 3-0 ATS at home this year. The Aggies? lone home loss came to Nevada by a 35-32 score as eight-point puppies.

--Utah St. has an outstanding QB in junior Diondre Borel, who can hurt opponents with his passing and scrambling. Borel has an excellent 13/3 TD-INT ratio and has also rushed for 433 yards and six scores.

--Utah St. RB Robert Turbin is enjoying a brilliant sophomore campaign. Turbin has 1,122 rushing yards and nine TDs. That?s good for a 6.6 yard-per-carry average.

--Boise St. is undefeated in five road games this year with a 3-2 spread leger. Two Fridays ago, the Broncos won 45-35 at La. Tech but failed to hook up their backers as 20 ?-point favorites.

--When these WAC rivals met in 2008, BSU collected a 49-14 home win at Bronco Stadium. However, the Aggies covered the spread, albeit barely, as 35 ?-point underdogs.

--Kickoff is slated for 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.



--After destroying USC 55-21 last week as a 10 ?-point road underdog, Stanford returns home to host a Jahvid-Best-less California squad. Most books have the Cardinal as a seven-point ?chalk.? Jim Harbaugh?s squad is 5-0 both SU and ATS at home, winning each game by eight points or more.

--Speaking of the Trojans, who have an open date this week, they have burned the pockets of their backers at a 1-8 ATS clip in their last nine games.

--Ohio St. is a 12 ?-point road favorite at Michigan this week. Although the Buckeyes never threatened to cover their inflated number in last week?s overtime win over Iowa, they still are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 outings. Meanwhile, the Wolverines are in the midst of 0-4 and 1-6 ATS slides. They have given up 35, 38, 38 and 45 points in their last four games.

--During Rich Rodriguez?s two-year tenure at Michigan, the school has lost 14 of 22 games. I?m having a hard time identifying the Wolverines? best win under R-Rod. The choices are as follows: vs. Miami (OH.), vs. Wisconsin, at Minnesota, vs. Western Michigan, vs. Notre Dame, vs. Eastern Michigan, vs. Indiana and vs. Delaware St.

--Did you know that La. Tech had the lead at LSU last week at halftime? For the game, the Bulldogs had more first downs (23-15) and yards (322-246) than the Tigers in Baton Rouge. Nevertheless, LSU won a 24-16 decision. Fortunately for Les Miles and Co., Jordan Jefferson will be back under center this week after sitting out against La. Tech with an ankle sprain. The guess here is that Jarrett Lee has played his final down in a Tiger uniform after last week?s abysmal performance (7-of-22 for 105 yds.).

--The story of former Ole Miss OT Michael Oher is one of the more inspiring tales you?ll ever hear in life (much less sports). Now at this point, we?re all thinking Sandra Bullock is getting a little too much air time in the relentless promotion of the movie based on Oher?s life, The Blind Side. However, it would be cold and borderline ruthless to be critical of anything related to the movie that?ll be released Friday. Nevertheless, that?s exactly what CBSsports.com?s Dennis Dodd did earlier this week in this column. Instead of thinking about the positives of such a story/movie/whatever, Dodd opts to play ?the SEC card? and talk about how the movie is ?free recruiting? for the SEC.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Boise State ready for Aggies

Boise State ready for Aggies

Boise State ready for Aggies

Boise State gets another road test in its perfect season when they visit Utah State on Friday night.

Boise State is a huge 23 ?-point road favorite with a total of 62 points. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2 at 9:30 pm ET.


The Broncos (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) are in the unenviable position of having to win big every week. They?re only ranked sixth in the country despite the unblemished record, and they need to keep impressing the voters, plus get upsets ahead of them.

Boise State also needs to win big due to this spread. The team has been a 20-point favorite or more in its last four games. Boise is 3-1 ATS in those contests including a 54-9 win at Hawaii.



However, the Broncos failed to cover their last road tilt at Louisiana Tech, playing a close 45-35 game as 20-point ?chalk.? An Oct. 14th game at Tulsa was also a failure to ?cover? at 28-21 as nine-point road favorites.



Boise State has a prolific offense that can pass or run with equal effectiveness. Quarterback Kellen Moore is a Heisman Trophy candidate, and the defense ranks 12th in the country.



Boise State is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between the teams. One caution note is the defense has given up 30 PPG the last two weeks. The unit could be wearing down.



Utah State is a dangerous foe



Utah State (3-7 SU, 7-3 ATS) can be a dangerous team as evidenced by its 7-3 spread mark. They are 3-0 ATS in its last three home games and 8-1 ATS in the last nine there.



The Aggies only chance to cover the spread in this game is through the offense. They rank 20th in the country in total yards (437 YPG), although their 27.6 PPG ranks only 59th.



Quarterback Diondre Borel is a dual-threat who can pass and run the ball. Borel has thrown for 2,315 yards this year and is the second leading rusher (440 yards) behind Robert Turbin at 1,122 yards.



Turbin had 190 yards rushing last week against San Jose State, but he?ll find the sledding much tougher on Friday.



The sieve-like Utah State defense has no chance of stopping the Broncos, so the offense must capitalize on its scoring opportunities.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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Heavy action on BSU, Orlando and Denver Friday

Heavy action on BSU, Orlando and Denver Friday

Heavy action on BSU, Orlando and Denver Friday

No. 6 Boise State (10-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) at Utah State (3-7 SU, 7-3 ATS)

Line/Total: We opened Boise State at -25 and booked sharp money on the underdog earlier in the week. We went to 24 and then 23 due to that sharp action, but have since settled on 23.5. The public is backing the favorite, with nearly 80 percent of the action on Boise State. I suspect we'll be going back to 24 sometime today. As for the total, we opened 62 and haven't moved off our opening number.

Key Injuries: BSU - DT JP Nisby (Knee) and WR Tyler Shoemaker (Undisclosed) are both questionable. TE Richie Brockel (Foot) and RB Matt Kaiserman (Leg) are both out for season.
Utah State - WR Nnamdi Gwacham (Leg) out for season, OG Ty Rogers (Knee) out indefinitely, S James Brindley (Hamstring) is downgraded to doubtful, WR Matt Austin (Foot) is questionable

Comments: Boise State still has a decent chance and is really deserving of a BCS birth this season. Quarterback Kellen Moore has been fantastic in 2009, throwing 32 TD passes and only three interceptions. The Aggies need to feed the ball to RB Robert Turbin, who has over 1,100 yards rushing and 12 TDs. Boise State is 7-0 ATS vs. Utah St since 1992. It?s won the last two meetings by a combined 87 points.

Prop of the Game: Kellen Moore (Boise St) Total Pass Attempts - 31.5

Orlando Magic (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) at Boston Celtics (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Line/Total: We opened the Celtics at -6.5 and with the majority of the action on the underdog, we've gone to -6 on this game. Just over 65 percent of the action is on the Magic. As for the total, we opened 191. Over 80 percent of the action is on the over and we've gone to 192 based on that action.

Key Injuries: Magic - G Jameer Nelson (Knee) is expected to miss 4 to 6 weeks.
Celtics - No injuries to report.

Comments: This is a great matchup tonight, as we have a possible preview of the Eastern Conference finals. The Magic are the defending Eastern Conference champs taking on the 2008 NBA Champs. The Magic and Celtics faced each other last year in the Eastern Conference semis, with the Magic advancing in a closely contested seven game series.

The Celtics were without their star forward Kevin Garnett, who's returned from his knee injury. The Celtics started the season red hot, winning six straight while going 5-1 ATS. But they?ve fallen off a bit, going 3-3 SU and failing to cover the number in six of their last seven games. The Celtics went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS vs. the Magic last year in the regular season.

Prop of the Game: Dwight Howard (Magic) Total Points+Rebounds - 29.5

Denver Nuggets (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) at Los Angeles Clippers (4-9 SU, 4-9 ATS)

Line/Total: We opened the Nuggets at -8.5 and so far the early action is on the road favorite. About 75 percent of the action is on the Nuggets and we've gone to 9 based on that action. As for the total, we opened 209 and booked some sharp action under 209 and 208. We're currently dealing 206 based off that sharp action.

Key Injuries: Nuggets - F Chris Andersen (Knee) is questionable. G Anthony Carter (Hip) has been upgraded to probable.
Clippers - G Eric Gordon (Groin) isn't expected to play. C Marcus Camby (Back) was injured last game and is listed questionable. G Kareem Rush (Knee) is out for the year.

Comments: The Nuggets got off to a hot start, winning their first five games and going 4-1 ATS. But since then, they're playing .500 ball, going 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS.

The Clippers are, well, the Clippers. We're talking about one of the worst organizations in professional sports and once again, they're struggling to win games. They started the season with four straight losses and this team has just one win in its last six games. They've been a disaster versus the spread, only covering in two of their last 11 contest. The Nuggets were 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS versus the Clippers last year.

Prop of the Game: Baron Davis (Clippers) Total Points - 19.5
 
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