A three-course meal on the menu for tonight:
The appetizer:
NEW YORK +5.5 vs. SEATTLE
Everyone reading this is going to think I've completely gone bonkers, but I love this game! Perfect contrarian betting situation. Knicks are about as popular right now with NBA bettors as Ariel Sharon on the West Bank. No one wants to touch this team with Monopoy mney. They looked like mutts on national TV last night and everyone who follows the game is going to shy away from this team, which is going to give the Knicks some extra value here on the line tonight. Think of it this way: Knicks DID play a pretty Goddamn good game for three full quarters last night (how many of you thought they would upset the Heat when they were up by 7 at the start of the 4th quarter...go ahead, raise your hands, there's no shame). That's right, Knicks know very well they blew it. Now, the come home for a Friday night home game playing in front of a disgruntled crowd. I look for them to play tough in front of the home crowd tonight. They also play against the perfect opponent -- ripe for an upset. The Sonics are a mellon that's been sitting in the sun too long, just ready to bust. Seattle has been on fire, but has been on the road for a week (boredom, hotel rooms, ho's). Sonics may come in flat and overconfident and will be facing an angry Knicks team with something to prove. Sure, this team is going nowhere, but pro athletes coming off embarrassments usually perform well in the next game playing with extra motivation. I see Seattle coming in and going through the motions here versus a Knicks team that wil be fired up and ready to avenge a humiliating loss last night. Add the fact we get +5.5 points with a Friday night home team and that's too good a bargain to pass up. I REALLY love this because it's quintessential contrarian handicapping at its finest. We don't win all of these (and the Knicks could lose, of course), but we are going against public perceptions and getting a lot of line value -- with the home team! Start up that thread now for all the Seattle bettors who are going to be kicking in their TV screens. Bad beat stories to follow....
The Main Course:
NEW YORK (+190 MONEYLINE) vs. SEATTLE
The Knicks were a juicy appetizer, and so I'm going to gobble down a double dose of them for my main course. I don't play many moneylines, but this is too good a value to pass up. Knicks at home +190? Give it to me and pass the gravy. Seattle has played a bunch of creampuffs lately -- Cleveland, Atlanta twice, and the Carterless Raptors. They're 4-0. Big shit. There's no way this team should be a 2-1 road favorite, except maybe Chivago when they were playing bad.
There is also a strong trend that suggests going with any team that lost its last game and now plays the next game at home versus a rested opponent. Knicks are 4-1 in that role this season. My mouth is wattering already.
For Dessert:
MINNESOTA -4 vs. SAN ANTONIO
Spurs get a tough spot here, coming off a tough overtime loss in Cleveland last night (oh, the shame of that!) and now must play at one of the NBA's best home teams. Wolves are 17-10 ATS at home this season, including 4-0 in the final game of a homestand when they must go out on the road for 3+ road games. Lakers got a dose of the Wolves two nights ago, and now its the Spurs turn to take a beating. Wolves absolutely hammered the Spurs at Alamodome last week -- a staggering 24-point win. Never mind "revenge" for the Spurs (Tim Duncan, my ass!), they couldn't beat an undermanned Cavs team last night. Minnesota is 6-1 this season when playing rested versus an unrested team. This is a very generous line with lots of sugar, so I'm taking a big slice.
Apperatives will be served at halftime tonight. Check back at the FREE THROWS Forum for ala carte dishes.
Bon Apetit!
-- Nolan Dalla
The appetizer:
NEW YORK +5.5 vs. SEATTLE
Everyone reading this is going to think I've completely gone bonkers, but I love this game! Perfect contrarian betting situation. Knicks are about as popular right now with NBA bettors as Ariel Sharon on the West Bank. No one wants to touch this team with Monopoy mney. They looked like mutts on national TV last night and everyone who follows the game is going to shy away from this team, which is going to give the Knicks some extra value here on the line tonight. Think of it this way: Knicks DID play a pretty Goddamn good game for three full quarters last night (how many of you thought they would upset the Heat when they were up by 7 at the start of the 4th quarter...go ahead, raise your hands, there's no shame). That's right, Knicks know very well they blew it. Now, the come home for a Friday night home game playing in front of a disgruntled crowd. I look for them to play tough in front of the home crowd tonight. They also play against the perfect opponent -- ripe for an upset. The Sonics are a mellon that's been sitting in the sun too long, just ready to bust. Seattle has been on fire, but has been on the road for a week (boredom, hotel rooms, ho's). Sonics may come in flat and overconfident and will be facing an angry Knicks team with something to prove. Sure, this team is going nowhere, but pro athletes coming off embarrassments usually perform well in the next game playing with extra motivation. I see Seattle coming in and going through the motions here versus a Knicks team that wil be fired up and ready to avenge a humiliating loss last night. Add the fact we get +5.5 points with a Friday night home team and that's too good a bargain to pass up. I REALLY love this because it's quintessential contrarian handicapping at its finest. We don't win all of these (and the Knicks could lose, of course), but we are going against public perceptions and getting a lot of line value -- with the home team! Start up that thread now for all the Seattle bettors who are going to be kicking in their TV screens. Bad beat stories to follow....
The Main Course:
NEW YORK (+190 MONEYLINE) vs. SEATTLE
The Knicks were a juicy appetizer, and so I'm going to gobble down a double dose of them for my main course. I don't play many moneylines, but this is too good a value to pass up. Knicks at home +190? Give it to me and pass the gravy. Seattle has played a bunch of creampuffs lately -- Cleveland, Atlanta twice, and the Carterless Raptors. They're 4-0. Big shit. There's no way this team should be a 2-1 road favorite, except maybe Chivago when they were playing bad.
There is also a strong trend that suggests going with any team that lost its last game and now plays the next game at home versus a rested opponent. Knicks are 4-1 in that role this season. My mouth is wattering already.
For Dessert:
MINNESOTA -4 vs. SAN ANTONIO
Spurs get a tough spot here, coming off a tough overtime loss in Cleveland last night (oh, the shame of that!) and now must play at one of the NBA's best home teams. Wolves are 17-10 ATS at home this season, including 4-0 in the final game of a homestand when they must go out on the road for 3+ road games. Lakers got a dose of the Wolves two nights ago, and now its the Spurs turn to take a beating. Wolves absolutely hammered the Spurs at Alamodome last week -- a staggering 24-point win. Never mind "revenge" for the Spurs (Tim Duncan, my ass!), they couldn't beat an undermanned Cavs team last night. Minnesota is 6-1 this season when playing rested versus an unrested team. This is a very generous line with lots of sugar, so I'm taking a big slice.
Apperatives will be served at halftime tonight. Check back at the FREE THROWS Forum for ala carte dishes.
Bon Apetit!
-- Nolan Dalla
