Friday on The College Hardcourt

[Tiger]

Yesterday: 5-6
Last 4 days: Scuffling along at 12-12
YTD: 111-85


Friday
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Gonna try and change my luck again by going back to the writeups. Let's see.................................

1)Penn State/Ohio State (under 137.5)

Penn State has won 4 of their last 6 games, and that has been a direct result of playing much better defence..................giving up an average of just 60 points.

Ohio State has been a very good defensive team down the stretch as well, giving up 57 or fewer points in 7 of their last 10 games, not coincidentally going 8-2 in those games.

DFG% Last 5 games
Penn State........42.7%
Ohio St.............41.5%
Both very good numbers

OFG% Last 5 games
Penn State........39.3%
Ohio St............42.7%
Neither team lighting it up lately either.

I think the underdog Lions will want a slow pace to this game as well. They don't want to run and gun with the more talented Buckeyes. I see a nice slow, deliberate pace in this one, that both teams will be happy with.




2)Miami (+13)

Another one of those rare games where the team with better rebounding and defensive numbers is getting double digits.

DFG% All Games YTD
Miami........41.3%
Duke........43.4%


DFG% Last 5 Games
Miami........40.5%
Duke........42.2%


The Canes have covered 3/4 while the Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS their last 4 and 3-7 ATS their last 10. Duke is also 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they have favoured by DD's away from home.


Expecting better results today.......................

Good luck out there,
Tiger

 

[Keith 1]

good luck Tiger. I was thinking Duke rolls this afternoon, but I will definitely be riding along on your under play.

 

[Keith 1]

nice job so far Tiger (I should've known better than to go against you with Dook).

 

[Gatorbait]

nice work

 

[Tiger]

Thanks guys.

Gatorbait.............I gotta say, I LOVE that avatar !!!

 

[Tiger]

Don't see any other afternoon games that I like, so been working on the night card and have these two so far...............................


3)St.Joes(+1.5)

Both teams playing well right now, but while Temple has won their first 2 conference tourney games, St.Joes has been hot for 3 weeks, winning last 7 in a row, and covering the last 5 straight.

The stats show St.Joes advantages in all categories, whether you look at all the stats YTD, just road stats, or just the last 5 games. The biggest advantage is in free throws.......

Temple.......59.1%
St.Joes........78.9%

...........And don't think that won't be a huge factor tonight.

I also think there might be a small let-down for the Owls after their big win over George Washington yesterday. I might be wrong but that could be noteworthy in what is virtually a pick em game.




4) UTEP (+4.5)

Shouldn't a Top 25 team that is 23-5 be favoured by more than 4.5 points over a 20-8 conference foe? That was my first thought in this game against UAB, but upon closer look, I think the Miners are a solid play.

The YTD stats show UTEP with advantages in free throws (small adv), rebounds (lg adv) and DFG% (lg adv) and they are getting points.
They are 5-2 ATS as a dog YTD and 8-4 ATS in all road games this year.

I know UAB did beat Memphis last week, but that was at home in front of a supercharged, emotional home crowd. On a neutral court today, I just don't see them as 5 points better that the Miners.

 

[blgstocks]

excellent write ups tiger, man I havent seen you around here much.
what do you normally play?

 

[Tiger]

Thanks for the kind words blgstocks. But I am not sure what you are asking me with "what do you normally play"?

 

[Mr.]

Love UTEP tonight Tiger....best of luck

 

[Jaxx]

Good luck Tiger. Likem both!

 

[Tiger]

5)Nebraska (+8)

The Cornhuskers are not as talented as the Sooners, but they do seem to play to their opposition, both up and down. Four of their last 6 games have been decided by 7 points or less, and six of their last 7 games have been decided by 11 points or less. They play very close games.

Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games...........they are 4-2 S/U in those games with ALL FOUR wins by exactly 1 point, so they haven't been blowing anyone out . They are 8-14 ATS in all games YTD.

The stats, suprisingly, show a pretty good advantage for Nebraska on the boards and on defence. Did you know that the Sooners DFG% in their last 5 games is 50.0%? Nebraska's is 42.7%. Hmmmmm.

Better defence, better rebounding and an 8 point underdog.

 

[Tiger]

6) Cal Poly Slo (+13)

Pacific hasn't played since last Saturday when they beat this same Cal Poly team by 22 points. Think they're going to whipped into a frenzy to play this sad sack team again? No? Me neither...........definite possibility of this being a look ahead spot for them.

Cal Poly won their tournament opener over CSB as a 6.5 pt dog and now are 14-2 ATS the last 16 times they have been a dog. They are 11-3 ATS in all road games YTD.

Looking at the stats..........Cal Poly cannot shoot the ball like Pacific, but every other category I look at is actually pretty close........close enough for me to be taking 13 points with the dog here.

 

[Tiger]

Hate to go against IE, but my last play for tonight is.....


7) Cal (-4)

I think Oregon may have shot their load last night with their big upset of Washington. They played a great game and won as a 7.5 pt dog, but that may have been their peak. Bad teams (and Oregon is 15-17 on the year) seldom play two good games in a row.

Cal lost that heartbreaker to UCLA in overtime last week, but have rebounded nicely with 2 wins and 2 covers in as many outings since.

The stats show some categories close to even, but defence in road games is the one that stuck out for me.

DFG% on the road
Oregon........49.7%..........Yikes!
Cal..............41.6%

Oregon especially struggled in defending the 3 on the road giving up a whopping 41.1%..................and Cal can shoot the 3ball. .......37.6% YTD.


Enough angles for me to lay a relatively low number.


That's it for tonight,
See you all tomorrow.


Tiger

 

[volfan]

Like Cal and UCLA...

GL Tiger...

 

[blgstocks]

Thanks for the kind words blgstocks. But I am not sure what you are asking me with "what do you normally play"?

No problem tiger, i trailed you with Utep and made a 1st half and game play on st joes cause ofYour doing awsome.
when i ask what do you normally play, I mean are you a baseball capper, pro football, ncaa bball, that kinda thing. I know alot fo guys on here do many but very few are active in more than two.
And I know you have been on here for awhile so I was wondering what you have been playing or maybe I just havent caught any of your ncaa bball posts

I love Cal -4 but i have to disagree with you on Pacific
I thought Pacific would start out slow against poly but I think they will easily cover, I took poly +6 at half and took Pacific -12.5 for the game
Stats are closer than one woul expect but i have seen both these teams play and it isnt even close in my opinion.
Keep up the good work

 

[blgstocks]

Good call on that Pacific game, I cannot believe they didnt cover, SLBO played better than I thought,

too bad about Cal though, luckily I only had them on a moneyline parlay that nova already blew

 

[Tam]

Excellent work! Keep it up!

 

[wcb4]

nice day man. tailed your utep play.

 

[speedster1]

Wow..unreal! Great job Tiger!!!