Friday Plays

[Spock]

Yesterday was a day in which the gods were not favourable. How else can I explain : Washington/NJ cannot score 3 points in last 2 mins .. Kobe misses both free throws to kill the OVer .. Memphis scores 6 points in the fourth quarter and kills the Spread .. Dallas / Boston cannot buy a bucket in the second half .. Boston blows a 14 point lead at the half to lose by 6 and blow the spread ..

Nolan had good analysis and calls for sides in second half play ..good work ND ..

Man .. .. . . .. Lost 1 unit yesterday. Couple of bad plays on my part .. one on the T-wolves : still not convinced Twolves good road team .. those points put up by Billups was freaky and dont think will repeat itself .. dallas / boston over for second half .. inspite of hittin good % they barely covered first half total of 105 points .. needed a 3 pointer for that .. should have realized that if Dallas has suited up 8 players that means that they will play longer minutes than in previous games and this will take a toll in the second half. Boston usually comes off a good victory and are having a long road trip which may lead to fatigue. The Over got killed by a lot of margin needless to say.

Something that gsp wrote in the Anders thread struck me : It is not how many plays u post but how many losing posts you dont post .. so esentially try to cut down the losing plays and better to go 1-0 than 5-4 ..

Looking at todays card :

My best bet is :

1. New Jersey / New York Knicks NJ -7.5 .. Also favouring the Over ..

New York has lost 2 games this season to the Nets by double digits. New Jersey has been playing good ball from the time they lost 3 in a row and had a win on the road in Washington. Am aware that they are playing back to back but the average age of this team is not very high its not a big travel in terms of distance and time zone. New York has had time to rest after their woeful loss in Chicago .. They had a big outburst in terms of offence .. Houston and Sprewell combining for 64 points .. I dont see it happening again in this game.

New Jersey on the other hand have a balanced attack and if Todd plays they should have a good edge in terms of rebounding.

New Jersey has lost just 6 games at home this season.
New Jersey is 21-6 at home and New York is 6-18 away.

Some other trends are :

NY is 7-18 ATS on one days rest.
NY is 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.
The over is 15-9 for the Knicks on the road this season.
NJ is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
NJ is 8-4 ATS on zero days rest.
NJ is 8-5 ATS at home vs. teams under 500.

NY is 14-29-0 away in their last 43 games.
NJ is 8-3-1 in their last 12 at home.
Recently :
After a loss NY are 3-7
After a win NJ are 6-4
New York is 1-8 playing on Friday.

New Jersey has been holding the opposition to 40% shooting in the last 5 games. I dont see this changing in this game.

Another reason is because of the decisions of the NYK coach. Cannot understand the guy .. No wonder they are losing.

And most important : the mentality of the NYK team .. this is not the team it was couple of years ago. They are not playing to win and this translates into their game.

I think New Jersey will win this by around 16 points.

Cheers !!!
Spock

# b back with more picks later on

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Great work, Spock (by the way -- I also really liked your "Deadbeat" list)

Watched the NJN game last night and was very impressed. When this team plays at it's peak, I think they can compete with anyone. Very good inside game and multi-dimensional -- which means they can beat you several ways.

The Nets game tonight jumped out at me when I first saw the line at -7.5. I can't understand why Nets are not favored by at least 2 more points here. Knicks have become a pig to bettors, so it's no longer a situation of New York money shaving the line. Knicks are an inconsistent, terribly inept road team that could finish in last place. So, why isn't NJN at least 9, or maybe 9.5 ?

I totaly agree with you analysis, it's just that the opening lin really made me think this could be a trap.


Thoughts?

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Spock]

Hi Nolan

Glad u liked the deadbeat list. I have been following your write up's and u put down your thoughts very nicely.
My mom and dad both write for newspapers and have books published (they are psychologist and scientist respectively)
and guess some of the writing part comes from them

I was surprised to see the line @ -7.5 also . I would have thought the line would be around 9 or so at least.

Couple of the reasons why I think the line is at -7.5 are :

1. Revenge : I think people are expecting the Knicks to take revenge for their heavy losses in the last 2 meetings. This used to be the case till a couple of years back. But not anymore and certainly not this season. This Knicks team just does not have it
in them to blow out an opponent let along the top team in the Eastern Conference.

2. Offence : I am not impressed that Sprewell and Houston scored 64 points against Chicago. Two things here .. Chicago does not have good defence and this is once in a blue moon occurence according to me .. and they still lost .. wow ..
But I think people may be interpreting this one game as the comeback for the Knicks offence. I dont

3. Back to Back : New Jersey is playing back to back. I think this puts some people away from the team as they may be tired.
But point to note is they are returning home for the second game of the back to back after a nice win over Washington.
Now they held Jordan to 17 points I am sure they can hold Sprewell or Houston to similar numbers.

I think this line is going to jump in the evening. I have grabbed it big @ -7.5

Also qs of matchup's. I do player by player matchup's and just dont see an advantage to NYK at all. Point guard Kidd destroys Jackson .. so one with others .. Inside game .. I think NJ can dominate in this factor .. NYK does not have a power forward ..

And then the most important aspect of the game that I pay attention to : The body language of the players .. its all in the mind as far as i am concerned .. and New York is not showing me that they wanna win .. NJ on the other hand wanna prove that they are the best ..

Mebbe this helps .. Please give your thoughts to this

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Spock]

2. Playing Sonics/Atlanta Under 189

Should have caught this line when it was higher at 191 last night I think .. or somewhere around that but at 189 it is still good.

Seattle and Atlanta both have lost to Portland in their last match. Seattle has not been playing great at home in the last 12 games in which they are 4-8.

Are fighiting for the final eighth spot for the playoff's with the Clippers and I am sure this must be at the back of their mind.

Vin Baker is out so most of the inside scoring is gone. I tend to favor teams with inside scoring because usually shots taken in the paint are more high % shots and can draw more fouls (unless u r hitting anything u throw up like SA did yesterday against SAC)

Key to this game is that Atlanta has played yesterday. They played Portland at night and got thoroghly outplayed in the first quarter in which they shot a measly 24%. Couple of players are back for Atlanta like Kukoc and Henderson and I dont they have played together enough for the offence to flow smoothly.

Some of the trends are :

The under is 20-9 for the Hawks on the road this season.
The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
The under is 8-1-1 in ATL's last 10 overall.
SEA is 2-7 ATS at home vs. teams under 500.
SEA is 3-1 ATS & SU in their last four overall.
The under is 16-10 for the Sonics at home this season

This is the first meeting betn these 2 teams this year. I suspect to make up for lack of offense Seattle is gonna play tough D. This in effect will slow down the game and make it harder for Hawks to score.

Atlanta rested its main players in the fourth quarter yesterday and they may not be tired but I cannot see Atlanta scoring more than 80 points against Seattle defence. Am expecting Seattle to score around 90 which would take the final score to around 170-174.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Spock]

3. Have also played New York / New Jersey Over 190.5

I have points coming around 195 so I grabbed this line late night yesterday as I thought it was a few points off. Looks like a lot of people thought like me and the line is now at 194

Couple of things to look at here:

The over is 15-9 for the Knicks on the road this season.
Both teams this season has gone over.

In the last 5 games NY Offensively have been scoring 98.2 points while giving up 102 .. NJ has been scoring 100 points while giving up 88.

Both teams are shooting ball well in the last few games but NYK does not have the game to play consistently over a period of 48 minutes.

Both teams like to run the floor and the pace of the game should be fast (not as much as Dallas) .. NJ does put up a lot of points @ home and NYK seem to be able to score more points away than at home .. while giving away more points of course.

Sprewell and Houston had an offensive outburst against Chicago together which I dont expect today but I expect one person to at least show up and play properly.

I would say the final score would be around :

New Jersey 107 New York 90




4. Phoenix / Chicago Phoenix -2

Phoenix has traded Rogers and Delk away. Johnson who they got from Boston did have a good game yesterday.

I think Rose wanted to make a statement in the game against New York Knicks .. now normally I would not make a play on the Suns especially considering their recent funk. But what stood out yesterday was their tight defence in the fourth quarter against Memphis who they held to 6 points in the whole quarter and won by 6 points .. now I lost that bet on Memphis but Phoenix at least showed that it had the temperament and the will to come back from behind on the road . play tight D and use sloppy useless idiotic ball handling from Memphis to their own advantage.

This team is still battling for playoff's .. they are not yet out totally .. so this would be a perfect scenario for them to show up strong ..

I agree they are 3-8 ATS on zero days rest .. here are some other stats

Phoenix most recently...
After a win are 4-6
After playing Memphis are 5-5
Before playing San Antonio are 4-6
When playing on Friday are 5-5

Chicago most recently...
After a win are 2-8
After playing New York are 3-7
Before playing Golden State are 5-5
When playing on Friday are 1-9

Chicago did come back in the second half and won the game .. but this was against New York and that is not new ..

Out of the 3-8 ATS record which Phoenix has in back to back games the last 8 back 2 back game (second game) this season they have played are against the following teams :

Lakers
Orlando
Dallas
Dallas
Denver
Sacremento
Boston
Sacremento

7 of these teams are teams which play better ball than Chicago (mebbe other than Denver) .. The record does not reflect everything.

I think Phoenix should be able to beat Chicago by atleast 8 points or more. Chicago after the big win against NYK will have a letdown.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Spock]

Won my best bet along with the Over .. New Jersey has proved who is the best in the tri state area and if Sprewell had not exploded for 21 points in the second quarter it would have been 2 embarassing.

Lost Phoenix -2 bet .. Chicago showed resiliance and Phoenix just did not have lot of weapons. The value of Roger and Delk shows up.

Seattle and Atlanta lots of fouls so extreme free throw shooting killing the under.

Looking back I think i have learnt not to take a team like Phoenix whose mindset is not on the game .. its a team adjusting to lots of changes and does not have a big roster right now .. so i think yetserday's minutes may have started to play a role here ..

I think the under for the Phoenix game will be a better bet from now onwards to the rest of the season.

Good call ND

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[gsp]

Spock, you started off great and went down hill. If 2-2 is the worst you do, you have to be a winner. Sea u had a 65% trend and another 70% trend working against. No way to cap Chi and Phoe tonight due to trades. Everything you said was logical and would normally produce winners. Let's get them tomarrow.

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

nice post spock....ditto gsp's reply.
i to took a shot with phoe. last nite....
chic. was def. in a let-down spot....all phoe.
had to do was show-up to play and take advantage.
mistake to ask an ugly duckling [phoe.]to perform
like the a beatiful swan. especially 2-times in a row.

gluck on sat., burgh.

 

[Spock]

thanx gsp, burgh

Stayed away from Clev/Indiana game because you never know how a team reacts to trades.

I should have applied the same logic to Phoenix and thats something I learnt yesterday. Stay away from teams that have made trade recently. Even though I am saying this today I am considering making a play against a team which made trades .. Dallas ..

Its not a play against Dallas but a play for Sacremento.

Burgh .. hard luck on the Phoenix bet bro .. in hindsight I think the better bet was the Under in the game. I was thinking about the Under but gave the edge to the side.

All home teams won yetserday I think. Funny.

gsp .. 2-1 yesterday .. great work bro ..

Lets get them today



Spock