Friday September 21st

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday September 21st 2007

yesterday: 3-6 -1.86
September: 134-127 +16.23
ml 58-47 +7.54
rl 5-6 -1.78
totals 42-27 +11.25
parlays & IFs 29-47 -0.78
system picks 2-1 yesterday; still lousy in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-2 yesterday; 46-25 in September (64.8%...how quickly it can drop)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Cubs 67% (-192)+1 RL 52 (+100)+2
mets 69 (-162)+7 RL 55 (-103)+4
Wash 57 (+112)+9
Atl 64 (-145)+4
hou 53 (+112)+5
Ariz 54 (-115)even
Sd 68 (-191)+2 RL 53 (+116)+6
Sf 58 (Misch-Belisle)
Det 68 (-165)+5 RL 54 (+118)+8
Nyy 53 (-178)-12 tor 47 (+170)+9
Clev 64 (-175)even
Tb 52 (+142)+10
Tex 59 (-135)+1
Min 63 (-175)-1
Laa 56 (-145)-4

system totals

mil@Atl un9 73% (+106)+24 --Miller, if they don't switch, is a bit of an UNDER-ump
kc@Det un10 71 (-105)+19 --ump N/A
tor@Nyy un9 65 (-105)+13 --ump N/A
bost@Tb un8.5 79 (-116)+25 --ump N/A


Rockies was a piece of cake but the Mets let me down. System picks are jinxed this month; I'm going to start pounding all 51-53's because they are 30-10 in September (75%). Need system picks?normally much higher calls?to be doing that. That late side and total in San Fran really saved my day; 4-day win streak is over so I'll have to start over?this 3 day stretch coming ip is one I've been really looking forward to so I'm hoping that my efforts will pay off.

Friday's system plays are the Mets, Tigers and Devil Rays. Mets is the high call, higher than yesterday's 67 but actually reduced drastically due to their loss today?that may be a mistake, as the pressure might be back on them and they face a total fade in Olsen?5 or 6 Mets runs minimum, I'd say, and Pedro has been spectacular?short, but spectacular?since coming off the DL. Nats (close, but no doobie) blew the game Thursday but they look good for Friday; Eaton can't get anybody out and Hill is pretty good; edge Philliesticks but Nats have been hitting up a storm for a few weeks now and look good to pummel Eaton. Tigers game is a mismatch; Jurrjens not getting much respect, despite the fairly high price; only Q is whether or not the Tigers are fielding all their key bats. D'Rays always have a shot with Kazmir and vs Beckett is no different; Bosox bats not hot lately.

I'll be playing all 4 listed totals.

Will post picks.

GL

 

[IE]

Overnight Pitching Change - Gm# 966 Giants Patrick Misch (L) is in the box instead of T. Lincecum (R).

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

unfreaking real

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks a lot for the headsup IE

I kind of like Misch, from the one game I saw him pitch.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

The negroes in the forest, brightly feathered
They're saying,
..........forget the night
..........live with us in forests of azure.
..........Out here on the perimeter there are no stars...
..........Out here we is stoned...immaculate!

(cost you a quarter)


:weed:

 

[jmizeus]

i show lincecum pitching friday? :shrug:

 

[Scotter]

Overnight Pitching Change: The starting pitcher for San Francisco, T. Lincecum is OUT, in his place, P Misch will start tomorrows game. All wagers involving T. Lincecum are NO Action.

Taken from Bodog

 

[jmizeus]

scotter

pinnacle still shows lincecum :shrug: ''been up all nite long

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc)

mets ov5.5 +105 (+17)Olsen with bad numbers vs and he is really, really bad lately; Mets 7-day OPS .775; a viable way to play the Mets Friday
Fla un4 -135 (-8)Martinez with good numbers vs; Fish 7-day at .713

mil un4.5 -135 (-13)Hudson with good numbers vs; Brew-Crew 7-day .759
--have Atl at -5

rockies un3 -120 (-16)Peavy with good numbers vs; Rox 7-day of .941 makes this a silly play
--have Pads at -2; they rock vs L but Morales has looked sharp past 2

royals un4.5 -105 (-14)Royals 7-day a pathetic .584 and they're in the basement for runs scored over that time; this looks hot
--have Det at 0; Buckner maybe not too crappy and Tigers 7-day only .651

--have Yanks and Jays both at -4; Yanks big, big edge at the plate but Wang is 0-2 with a 9.90 era vs the Jays in '07 while Doc always gives the Yanks some headaches

bosox un4.5 -105 (-13)Kazmir with good numbers vs; Bosox 7-day only .667; looks quite possible but I'm on the game total AND the D'Rays, so I dunno about pushing my luck TOO far
D'Rays un4 -140 (-14)'Rays 7-day a decent .778 but their run production is down
--wish I knew the ump; best-looking under to me

Rangers ov6 -115 (+12)Rangers 7-day down at .699 after being over .900 less than a week ago; Santos is garbage but so was Victor who they faced yesterday, so I'll pass on this...likely pass or fade both of these clubs the rest of the way...pathetic
--have O's at +2, for what it's worth

cws un3.5 -135 (-13)Santana with good numbers vs but he doesn't look his best lately and Pale Hose 7-day is .824 so they might squeeze in 4
Twins un4 -110 (-8)Mark with good numbers vs; Twinkies 7-day at it's consistently low... .694
--system call is 61% under the 7.5; not a system total as the total is too low and the Metrodome...in years past when the Twins could hit...is a pretty good hitter's park


Done.
Dirt cheap.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

IE puts up great posts about these pitching changes.
That's how I heard about Misch.
Not as good as Lincecum, I figure, but looked good from what I saw, the Reds have trouble vs lefties (OPS .738 while vs R they're at .795, PLUS, they're 11-19 on the road to lefties (.367) and 21-33 vs lefties overall (.389))(()), PLUS the Reds seem to be playing a lot of call-ups...still probably as good as the G-men at the plate.

I'd try the Giants in the -110 to -120 range as Belisle is kinda brutal. Reds pen, too. Save for Weathers.

Get it?

:142smilie

:SIB

 

[IE]

The Giants have shut down Tim Lincecum for the rest of the season. Pat Misch will start in his place Friday.

It's always seemed likely that this would happen, though the Giants kept indicating that it wasn't in their plans. Now they're announcing it the night before he was due to make his next-to-last start. Including his time in the minors, Lincecum had thrown 177 1/3 innings this season. He was 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA and a 150/65 K/BB ratio in 146 1/3 IP for the Giants.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYS

system picks

mets -162 3.24/2
Tigers -165 1.65/1
Devil Rays +142 1/1.42

other picks

Nationals +112 1/1.12
Braves -145 1.45/1
Padres -1.5 +116 1/1.16

totals

mil@Atl un9 +106 1.5/1.59
kc@Det un10 -105 1.45/1.4
royals under4.5 -105 0.63/0.6
tor@Nyy un9 -105 1.57/1.5
bost@Tb un8.5 -121 2.42/2

2-team parlay
--Cubs ml
--mets ml
+135
0.74/1

2-teamer
--Cubs ml
--Tigers ml
+135
0.64/0.86

2-teamer
--mets ml
--Padres ml
+139
0.72/1

2-teamer
--mets ml
--Tigers ml
+153
0.79/1.21

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--Tigers ml
+139
0.63/0.87

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--Yankees under5
+162
0.5/0.81

13-team IF bet
1.Cubs -1.5 0.77/0.77
2.royals under4.5 0.55/0.5
3.Nationals 0.6/0.63
4.tor-Nyy un9 0.8/0.7
5.D'Rays 0.6/0.81
6.mets -1.5 0.8/0.7
7.Rangers -1.5 0.8/1.08
8.mil-Atl un9 0.71/0.71
9.astros 0.8/0.84
10.Padres -1.5 1/1.1
11.D'Backs 1.5/1.2
12.a's under4 0.96/0.96
13.mariners over5 1/1.3
0.77 to win max.11.3

10-team IF bet
1.mets -1.5 0.57/0.5
2.mil-Atl un9 0.5/0.5
3.tor-Nyy un9 0.57/0.5
4.Tigers -1.5 0.5/0.58
5.bost-tb un8.5 1/0.8
6.Cubs -1.5 0.72/0.72
7.Padres -1.5 1/1.1
8.Nationals 1.3/1.3
9.Twins -1.5 0.8/1
10.D'Backs 1.5/1.2
0.57 to win max.8.2

11-team IF bet
1.blue jays 0.6/0.98
2.mets -1.5 0.57/0.5
3.Tigers -1.5 0.6/0.69
4.Padres -1.5 0.7/0.77
5.Cubs -1.5 0.86/0.86
6.Indians -1.5 0.8/0.88
7.Braves 1.5/1
8.Twins -1.5 1.2/1.5
9.Devil Rays 1.4/1.89
10.Nationals 1.53/1.53
11.astros 1/1.05
0.6 to win max.11.65


Think I'll stop there. Not bold enough to go any more on the D'Rays as they always seem to find a way to lose when I play them. Jays may be a good play, too, as Wang vs Jays has not treated him well this year; I just can't back this lineup right now against a strong Yankee team fighting for the division; Jays have Wells, Rios and Thomas and not much else offensively, and Wells is really hurt, Thomas is over the hill, and Rios can't do it all, not against A-Rod, Jeter, Posada, Godzilla, ad absurdium. Would like to see those two sides hit, regardless, and let the standings stay where they are for a day. Mets call would have been mid-70's with a clean victory, or about a 72 if they'd held that 3 run lead in the 9th, but they didn't look like winners Thursday so I figured that I'd drop the call out of the 70's; besides, 69's are 3-1 in September and I could use all the mojo filter that I can get.

Two day funk for system totals but who woulda called the Astros to light up sLooper like they did?Wandyman did his part; and I commented how I wouldn't play the Ameriquest over due to recent pathetic offensive numbers, pariculaly by the O's but both sides?I shoulda not posted it, maybe, but the main thing is I didn't touch it. The one I touched turned to gold. I'm way in for all 4 today. Totals almost as important as sides to me, save for all these dang parlays?hope to getting something back from that mess.

Been up too long.
Need sleep.
GL