BEGINNING FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 2
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Cubs are 8-3 (+$345) against the Pirates this year and 21-9 (+$880) against them since the beginning of 2004. Not a bad record, and with time running out in the race for the wildcard, this is a good time for the Cubs to be playing Pittsburgh. But let?s face it, as Bill Parcells says. ?You are what your record says you are?, so it makes no sense to lay one cent on a team that is in the red on the road for the last year plus and the biggest loser in the NL (-$2160) as chalk. BEST BET: Pirates in all games.
Philadelphia at Washington (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Phillies lead this series, 7-6, but Washington is the team that is in the black (+$110). The Nationals, except for a brief, four-game winning streak in mid August, are still spiraling downward and have lost 64% or so of their games since the All-Star break. But, they do possess two of the best righties in the NL in John Patterson and Livan Hernandez and Washington is 18-8 (+$515) in their 26 home starts. The Phillies average a mediocre 4.2 RPG on the road against righties. BEST BET: Hernandez/Patterson.
Cincinnati at Atlanta (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Braves? starters are pitching to a sparkling 3.30 ERA at home, the third best ERA in that category in MLB. The Reds? starters are giving up nearly two runs per game more than that on the road. Atlanta has already won five of seven (+$280) against Cincy and those pitching stats tell us that the pattern will continue. Yes, the prices will be high, but it will be hard to resist Atlanta when the Reds start a righty since the Braves are 32-15 (+$895) against them in the Ted. BEST BET: Braves at -$175 or less vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Mets at Florida (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Mets have defeated the Marlins on seven of 12 occasions (+$345) and even beat Dontrelle Willis for the first time. The Mets, despite a slew of injuries, are playing excellent baseball (won five of seven road games last week) and their starting pitching has never been better. Have to lean to the visitors playing with confidence unless they draw rookie southpaw Jason Vargas (3-1 at home with a 2.55 ERA and a .180 BAA) as the Mets are only 4-12 (-$720) on the road against lefties. BEST BET: Vargas/Mets vs. Valdez & Moehler.
St. Louis at Houston (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Given the Cardinals big lead, this series is only important to the Astros in their quest to be the NL?s wildcard for the second straight season. The Cards lead the series, 9-2 (+$670), but we think it?s time for Houston to step up. We?re hoping that Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan are on the mound for the Redbirds because they?re 11-15 (-$820) when those two start on the road. Conversely, St. Louis is a perfect 11-0 (+$1,100) when Cy Young-candidate Chris Carpenter pitches away from home. BEST BET: Carpenter/Astros vs. Marquis & Suppan.
L.A. Dodgers at Colorado (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
This may be a series to avoid. With both starting corps comprised of 80% righthanded pitching and neither team playing particularly well against pitchers of that persuasion (Dodgers are 20-31, -$750 on the road against them, Rockies are 19-29, -$800 in Coors Field vs. righties), we?re faced with a multitude of no plays. BEST BET: None.
San Francisco at Arizona (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
While it may be amusing to us that the Diamondbacks are still in the hunt in the dreadful NL West, rest assured that the players are taking it quite seriously. Making the playoffs regardless of its record would be a feather in the cap of Arizona, a team that lost 111 games a year ago. But, the ?Backs are hardly playing like a team on a mission (lost 11 of 14), so we?ll lean to the dog especially if Felipe Alou starts a righty at night as Arizona is 11-24 (-$1580) averaging 3.7 RPG in that scenario. BEST BET: Giants? righthanders at night.
Baltimore at Boston (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Red Sox may be in first place in the AL East, but the fact is that they have had the most difficulty against the teams in their own division. Boston is 22-26 (-$1185) against teams in the AL East, including 5-7 (-$435) against the Orioles. Most of those Orioles? ?Ws?, however, were achieved when Baltimore still resembled a professional baseball team. Considering Boston?s prowess at home (40-19, +$1130), it?s either the chalk or pass. BEST BET: Red Sox -$170 or less.
Tampa Bay at Toronto (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Blue Jays are going to have their hands full with the rejuvenated Devil Rays who are a surprising 27-15 since the All-Star break. Even more surprising is that the Rays are a decent 9-10 on the road since mid July which, in our mind, makes them an attractive and potentially highly profitable dog unless Toronto starts one of their lefties (Rays are 5-18, -$740 away vs. portsiders). BEST BET: Blue Jays lefthanders vs. Devil Rays? righthanders.
Cleveland at Minnesota (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
This is a huge series with all kinds of playoff implications. The Tribe has surged into contention by winning 16 of their last 22 contests while the Twins have rebounded from a slump with a vengeance by winning 9 of its last 13 games. With pitching so important in a series as important as this one, we?ll wait until they?re set before taking a stand. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Yankees at Oakland (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Once again, these two teams are meeting in the latter part of the year with something significant on the table. Usually the Athletics and Yankees meet in October in the playoffs. This time each team is looking to knock the other out of the wildcard race. Oakland has done a fine job (14-7, +$505 averaging six runs per game) at home vs. lefties and since the Yankees are 3-9 (-$1370) in Randy Johnson?s 12 road starts and 2-3 (-$155) in Al Leiter?s away outings, we?ll opt for the home team. BEST BET: Athletics vs. lefthanders.
Seattle at L.A. Angels (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
After losing four straight home games to the Mariners right before the All-Star break, the Angels got their revenge with a three-game sweep at Safeco Field in the middle of August and now lead the series, 7-5. The problem is that they will be so highly favored at home that playing them is much too risky. Take a shot on the Mariners as a high priced underdog, as long as they don?t hook up with Bartolo Colon. BEST BET: Hernandez.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Cubs are 8-3 (+$345) against the Pirates this year and 21-9 (+$880) against them since the beginning of 2004. Not a bad record, and with time running out in the race for the wildcard, this is a good time for the Cubs to be playing Pittsburgh. But let?s face it, as Bill Parcells says. ?You are what your record says you are?, so it makes no sense to lay one cent on a team that is in the red on the road for the last year plus and the biggest loser in the NL (-$2160) as chalk. BEST BET: Pirates in all games.
Philadelphia at Washington (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Phillies lead this series, 7-6, but Washington is the team that is in the black (+$110). The Nationals, except for a brief, four-game winning streak in mid August, are still spiraling downward and have lost 64% or so of their games since the All-Star break. But, they do possess two of the best righties in the NL in John Patterson and Livan Hernandez and Washington is 18-8 (+$515) in their 26 home starts. The Phillies average a mediocre 4.2 RPG on the road against righties. BEST BET: Hernandez/Patterson.
Cincinnati at Atlanta (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Braves? starters are pitching to a sparkling 3.30 ERA at home, the third best ERA in that category in MLB. The Reds? starters are giving up nearly two runs per game more than that on the road. Atlanta has already won five of seven (+$280) against Cincy and those pitching stats tell us that the pattern will continue. Yes, the prices will be high, but it will be hard to resist Atlanta when the Reds start a righty since the Braves are 32-15 (+$895) against them in the Ted. BEST BET: Braves at -$175 or less vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Mets at Florida (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Mets have defeated the Marlins on seven of 12 occasions (+$345) and even beat Dontrelle Willis for the first time. The Mets, despite a slew of injuries, are playing excellent baseball (won five of seven road games last week) and their starting pitching has never been better. Have to lean to the visitors playing with confidence unless they draw rookie southpaw Jason Vargas (3-1 at home with a 2.55 ERA and a .180 BAA) as the Mets are only 4-12 (-$720) on the road against lefties. BEST BET: Vargas/Mets vs. Valdez & Moehler.
St. Louis at Houston (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Given the Cardinals big lead, this series is only important to the Astros in their quest to be the NL?s wildcard for the second straight season. The Cards lead the series, 9-2 (+$670), but we think it?s time for Houston to step up. We?re hoping that Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan are on the mound for the Redbirds because they?re 11-15 (-$820) when those two start on the road. Conversely, St. Louis is a perfect 11-0 (+$1,100) when Cy Young-candidate Chris Carpenter pitches away from home. BEST BET: Carpenter/Astros vs. Marquis & Suppan.
L.A. Dodgers at Colorado (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
This may be a series to avoid. With both starting corps comprised of 80% righthanded pitching and neither team playing particularly well against pitchers of that persuasion (Dodgers are 20-31, -$750 on the road against them, Rockies are 19-29, -$800 in Coors Field vs. righties), we?re faced with a multitude of no plays. BEST BET: None.
San Francisco at Arizona (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
While it may be amusing to us that the Diamondbacks are still in the hunt in the dreadful NL West, rest assured that the players are taking it quite seriously. Making the playoffs regardless of its record would be a feather in the cap of Arizona, a team that lost 111 games a year ago. But, the ?Backs are hardly playing like a team on a mission (lost 11 of 14), so we?ll lean to the dog especially if Felipe Alou starts a righty at night as Arizona is 11-24 (-$1580) averaging 3.7 RPG in that scenario. BEST BET: Giants? righthanders at night.
Baltimore at Boston (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Red Sox may be in first place in the AL East, but the fact is that they have had the most difficulty against the teams in their own division. Boston is 22-26 (-$1185) against teams in the AL East, including 5-7 (-$435) against the Orioles. Most of those Orioles? ?Ws?, however, were achieved when Baltimore still resembled a professional baseball team. Considering Boston?s prowess at home (40-19, +$1130), it?s either the chalk or pass. BEST BET: Red Sox -$170 or less.
Tampa Bay at Toronto (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Blue Jays are going to have their hands full with the rejuvenated Devil Rays who are a surprising 27-15 since the All-Star break. Even more surprising is that the Rays are a decent 9-10 on the road since mid July which, in our mind, makes them an attractive and potentially highly profitable dog unless Toronto starts one of their lefties (Rays are 5-18, -$740 away vs. portsiders). BEST BET: Blue Jays lefthanders vs. Devil Rays? righthanders.
Cleveland at Minnesota (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
This is a huge series with all kinds of playoff implications. The Tribe has surged into contention by winning 16 of their last 22 contests while the Twins have rebounded from a slump with a vengeance by winning 9 of its last 13 games. With pitching so important in a series as important as this one, we?ll wait until they?re set before taking a stand. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Yankees at Oakland (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Once again, these two teams are meeting in the latter part of the year with something significant on the table. Usually the Athletics and Yankees meet in October in the playoffs. This time each team is looking to knock the other out of the wildcard race. Oakland has done a fine job (14-7, +$505 averaging six runs per game) at home vs. lefties and since the Yankees are 3-9 (-$1370) in Randy Johnson?s 12 road starts and 2-3 (-$155) in Al Leiter?s away outings, we?ll opt for the home team. BEST BET: Athletics vs. lefthanders.
Seattle at L.A. Angels (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
After losing four straight home games to the Mariners right before the All-Star break, the Angels got their revenge with a three-game sweep at Safeco Field in the middle of August and now lead the series, 7-5. The problem is that they will be so highly favored at home that playing them is much too risky. Take a shot on the Mariners as a high priced underdog, as long as they don?t hook up with Bartolo Colon. BEST BET: Hernandez.
