BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 29
N.Y. Mets at Washington (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Mets have looked very sharp winning 10 of their last 13, including a series win vs. the Nationals last weekend. But they?ve been a disappointing 3-7 on the road thus far (-$425) and the injury list keeps growing. Washington has been very competitive and could easily win at least 2 out of 3 this weekend. Zach Day (+$150) pitched seven scoreless innings in his only start at RFK and he?s slated to take a turn against New York. He looks like the best value, but we may find others by game day. BEST BET: Day.
Florida at Philadelphia (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Marlins have become the Phillies arch enemy in recent times, winning 12 of 19 in 2004 (+$445) and taking 2 out of 3 when they met at Pro Player Park earlier this month. Since them the Phillies haven?t played particularly well, and their pitching staff looks like a real cause for concern (5.34 team ERA, 2nd worst in the NL). The Marlins have been just the opposite (2.27 team ERA, best in baseball, with a respectable .272 team BA), and they?ll probably have Josh Beckett (+$140, 1.00 ERA) and Dontrelle Willis (+$400, 1.50), two of the league?s hottest pitchers on the hill this weekend. They?ll be an excellent value as visitors. BEST BET: Beckett/Willis.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Giants were embarrassed by the lowly Bucs in 2005, winning only one of their six meetings (-$525). Revenge is clearly in order for the visitor, and it might not be that tough to come by, considering Pittsburgh?s woeful 1-6 (-$525) start at PNC Park, and an offense that is averaging barely three runs per game (.230 team BA). the Giants were 32-18 vs. lefties last year (+$1145) and they?ve averaged 6.0 runs per game vs. southpaws so far. Pittsburgh is loaded with lefty starters, so it looks like an ideal opportunity for SF to fatten up on one of the NL?s weak sisters at some very favorable road prices. BEST BET: Giants vs. lefthanders.
St. Louis at Atlanta (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
Both teams are looking sharp right now, thanks in large part to exemplary work by the starting rotations (Braves 2.90 ERA, Cardinals 3.35). St. Louis was 52-29 on the road in 2004 (+$1700) and they are picking up right where they left off, with a 6-1 (+$495) mark. We?ll avoid Tim Hudson (0.96 ERA) and Mike Hampton, (1.17), who have both looked sensational. But anytime the Cards send a righty to the mound, the rest of Atlanta?s starters are fair game (Braves -$205, with only 3.6 runs per game). BEST BET: Cardinal righthanders unless opposed by Hudson or Hampton.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Brewers don?t have much to show after three weeks of action (only 7-11, -$280) but they?ve gotten surprisingly good pitching (3.83 team ERA), so we might be able to use them in certain spots. The Reds have been awful on the road so far (2-6, -$285) and are averaging just 3.1 runs per game vs. righthanders. Ben Sheets hasn?t had much in the way of run support, but he?s on his way to another solid season in 2005 (3.95 ERA, 2.46 at Miller Park). The Reds (4.50 team ERA) don?t have anyone to match him with. BEST BET: Sheets.
Chicago Cubs at Houston (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Astros? pitching has been excellent (3.59 ERA, 4th best in the NL) but their run production has been totally inadequate, causing them to lose three of Rogers Clemens?s four starts so far, despite his tiny 0.32 ERA. The Cubs were a terrific value as visitors taking on righthanders last year (38-27, +$500) and they?ll be sending Mark Prior (0.00 ERA) and Carlos Zambrano (3.04 ERA) to the hill this weekend. They?ve been Chicago?s two most effective starters so far, and it appears as though Andy Pettitte, Houston?s only lefty, won?t be taking a turn. BEST BET: Prior/Zambrano.
Arizona at San Diego (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Padres are getting good work out of Peavy and Eaton, but the team as a whole has not looked very sharp (8-11, -$555 overall) and the D?backs very been tough (+$345). They shut down the San Diego attack at Bank One ballpark last weekend, sweeping 3 games in the process. The Padres did not do well money-wise at Petco Park in 2004 (-$1185) and they are off to a poor start vs. righties (-$265 with only 3.9 runs per game). Brandon Webb (+$440, 2.63 ERA) out dueled Jake Peavy last weekend as a high priced home underdog. He?ll be available at an enormous price in this weekend?s rematch, and looks much too good to pass up. BEST BET: Webb.
Colorado at L.A. Dodgers (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Dodgers took an unlikely beating from the hapless Rockies at Coors Field, and were lucky to escape with a single victory. The tide may be turning against an LA team that has not pitched well in recent days (4.55 ERA last 10) and whose bullpen is struggling with the absence of closer Eric Gagne. The Rockies will be huge underdogs throughout, but it?s hard to back a team with a 1-7 (-$530) road record and a 6.45 team ERA (worst in the majors) no matter how tempting the price. BEST BET: None.
Kansas City at Cleveland (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
These teams split a pair at Kaufman Stadium last week, and we?d like to find a spot to use the visiting underdog here at Jacobs Field (Indians only 2-4, -$265 at home). Unfortunately, the Royals are just too weak to use, even as prices approach 2 to 1. They are a disaster statistically (5.29 ERA, .243 team BA, near the bottom of the AL in both departments) and are already in a deep hole (-$650) money-wise. We?ll sit this one out for now. BEST BET: None.
Toronto at N.Y. Yankees (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
We think the Yankees will pull it together and remain one of baseball?s most formidable clubs in 2005. But it appears that a crackup is inevitable in the next couple of years. Randy Johnson got the team a needed win in his last outing, but the Jays are averaging 6.4 runs per game vs. lefties +$160) and the Big Unit has been far from dominating (-$230, 4.19 ERA). We also like Roy Halladay (+$275) against a New York team that is a dismal 4-10 (-$1350 vs. righthanders). BEST BET: Halladay/Blue Jays vs. Johnson.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Orioles took 2 out of 3 from the Devil Rays at Tropicana Field earlier in the year and they?ve continued to win consistently (12-7, +$550 so far), thanks to a prolific offense (.292 team BA, 5.6 runs per game). Tampa Bay lacks the rotation to deal with such a formidable attack (6.11 ERA, worst in the AL) and they?ve only won once in five tries on the road. We?ll lay the price with Erik Bedard (3.80 ERA), when he goes to the hill at Camden Yards. BEST BET: Bedard.
Detroit at Chicago W. Sox (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Chisox are storming to a fat lead in the AL Central (15-4, +$1115) thanks to the league?s best pitching staff (3.12 team ERA). The Tigers were terrific against righties in 2004 but are a lackluster 1-5 on the road vs. righties this year (-$440) and despite a 2-1 start against southpaws, we still don?t trust them after last season (-$1430 vs. lefties). We?ve been cleaning up with this team and we?ll keep riding them until they falter. BEST BET: White Sox in all games.
Boston at Texas (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Red Sox are once again proving to be ineffective away from Fenway Park (only 5-6, -$205) and that could be bad news vs. a tenacious Texas team that dominated the opposition, particularly righthanders, at Arlington Stadium last year (+$2120). Curt Schilling has not looked at all sharp since returning from the DL (-$230, 7.13 ERA) but will still command a high price when he takes the hill in this series. We?ll look for the hard hitting Rangers (5.1 runs game) to deal him another rough outing. BEST BET: Rangers vs. Schilling.
L.A. Angels at Minnesota (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
Both these teams were pre-season favorites to capture their respective division titles. But the Twins have fallen behind a sizzling Chicago team while the Angels are in a dogfight within a very competitive AL West. What the Angels did best in 2004 was beat up on lefthanders in road games, posting an astonishing 20-7 (+$1220) mark in that situation. They are already 2-0 (+$205) this year and they?ll be going against Cy Young winner Johan Santana here at the Metrodome. We?ll be taking an enormous price with the visitor and you have to like LA?s chances. BEST BET: Angels vs. Santana.
Seattle at Oakland (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The teams split a pair at Safeco last week, and fans of both teams have reasons to feel good about their teams at this juncture. The A?s are getting solid work from their rotation (3.63 ERA) despite the losses of Hudson and Mulder, and Seattle is also getting effective work from their mound corps (3.80). Jaime Moyer in particular appears rejuvenated (+$260, 2.53 ERA) and looks very inviting against can Oakland team that has averaged just 3.0 runs per game vs. lefties. The Mariners are 5-2 (+$355) on the road vs. righties, and Zito is not in line to face Moyer as things stand. BEST BET: Moyer.
N.Y. Mets at Washington (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Mets have looked very sharp winning 10 of their last 13, including a series win vs. the Nationals last weekend. But they?ve been a disappointing 3-7 on the road thus far (-$425) and the injury list keeps growing. Washington has been very competitive and could easily win at least 2 out of 3 this weekend. Zach Day (+$150) pitched seven scoreless innings in his only start at RFK and he?s slated to take a turn against New York. He looks like the best value, but we may find others by game day. BEST BET: Day.
Florida at Philadelphia (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Marlins have become the Phillies arch enemy in recent times, winning 12 of 19 in 2004 (+$445) and taking 2 out of 3 when they met at Pro Player Park earlier this month. Since them the Phillies haven?t played particularly well, and their pitching staff looks like a real cause for concern (5.34 team ERA, 2nd worst in the NL). The Marlins have been just the opposite (2.27 team ERA, best in baseball, with a respectable .272 team BA), and they?ll probably have Josh Beckett (+$140, 1.00 ERA) and Dontrelle Willis (+$400, 1.50), two of the league?s hottest pitchers on the hill this weekend. They?ll be an excellent value as visitors. BEST BET: Beckett/Willis.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Giants were embarrassed by the lowly Bucs in 2005, winning only one of their six meetings (-$525). Revenge is clearly in order for the visitor, and it might not be that tough to come by, considering Pittsburgh?s woeful 1-6 (-$525) start at PNC Park, and an offense that is averaging barely three runs per game (.230 team BA). the Giants were 32-18 vs. lefties last year (+$1145) and they?ve averaged 6.0 runs per game vs. southpaws so far. Pittsburgh is loaded with lefty starters, so it looks like an ideal opportunity for SF to fatten up on one of the NL?s weak sisters at some very favorable road prices. BEST BET: Giants vs. lefthanders.
St. Louis at Atlanta (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
Both teams are looking sharp right now, thanks in large part to exemplary work by the starting rotations (Braves 2.90 ERA, Cardinals 3.35). St. Louis was 52-29 on the road in 2004 (+$1700) and they are picking up right where they left off, with a 6-1 (+$495) mark. We?ll avoid Tim Hudson (0.96 ERA) and Mike Hampton, (1.17), who have both looked sensational. But anytime the Cards send a righty to the mound, the rest of Atlanta?s starters are fair game (Braves -$205, with only 3.6 runs per game). BEST BET: Cardinal righthanders unless opposed by Hudson or Hampton.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Brewers don?t have much to show after three weeks of action (only 7-11, -$280) but they?ve gotten surprisingly good pitching (3.83 team ERA), so we might be able to use them in certain spots. The Reds have been awful on the road so far (2-6, -$285) and are averaging just 3.1 runs per game vs. righthanders. Ben Sheets hasn?t had much in the way of run support, but he?s on his way to another solid season in 2005 (3.95 ERA, 2.46 at Miller Park). The Reds (4.50 team ERA) don?t have anyone to match him with. BEST BET: Sheets.
Chicago Cubs at Houston (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Astros? pitching has been excellent (3.59 ERA, 4th best in the NL) but their run production has been totally inadequate, causing them to lose three of Rogers Clemens?s four starts so far, despite his tiny 0.32 ERA. The Cubs were a terrific value as visitors taking on righthanders last year (38-27, +$500) and they?ll be sending Mark Prior (0.00 ERA) and Carlos Zambrano (3.04 ERA) to the hill this weekend. They?ve been Chicago?s two most effective starters so far, and it appears as though Andy Pettitte, Houston?s only lefty, won?t be taking a turn. BEST BET: Prior/Zambrano.
Arizona at San Diego (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Padres are getting good work out of Peavy and Eaton, but the team as a whole has not looked very sharp (8-11, -$555 overall) and the D?backs very been tough (+$345). They shut down the San Diego attack at Bank One ballpark last weekend, sweeping 3 games in the process. The Padres did not do well money-wise at Petco Park in 2004 (-$1185) and they are off to a poor start vs. righties (-$265 with only 3.9 runs per game). Brandon Webb (+$440, 2.63 ERA) out dueled Jake Peavy last weekend as a high priced home underdog. He?ll be available at an enormous price in this weekend?s rematch, and looks much too good to pass up. BEST BET: Webb.
Colorado at L.A. Dodgers (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Dodgers took an unlikely beating from the hapless Rockies at Coors Field, and were lucky to escape with a single victory. The tide may be turning against an LA team that has not pitched well in recent days (4.55 ERA last 10) and whose bullpen is struggling with the absence of closer Eric Gagne. The Rockies will be huge underdogs throughout, but it?s hard to back a team with a 1-7 (-$530) road record and a 6.45 team ERA (worst in the majors) no matter how tempting the price. BEST BET: None.
Kansas City at Cleveland (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
These teams split a pair at Kaufman Stadium last week, and we?d like to find a spot to use the visiting underdog here at Jacobs Field (Indians only 2-4, -$265 at home). Unfortunately, the Royals are just too weak to use, even as prices approach 2 to 1. They are a disaster statistically (5.29 ERA, .243 team BA, near the bottom of the AL in both departments) and are already in a deep hole (-$650) money-wise. We?ll sit this one out for now. BEST BET: None.
Toronto at N.Y. Yankees (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
We think the Yankees will pull it together and remain one of baseball?s most formidable clubs in 2005. But it appears that a crackup is inevitable in the next couple of years. Randy Johnson got the team a needed win in his last outing, but the Jays are averaging 6.4 runs per game vs. lefties +$160) and the Big Unit has been far from dominating (-$230, 4.19 ERA). We also like Roy Halladay (+$275) against a New York team that is a dismal 4-10 (-$1350 vs. righthanders). BEST BET: Halladay/Blue Jays vs. Johnson.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Orioles took 2 out of 3 from the Devil Rays at Tropicana Field earlier in the year and they?ve continued to win consistently (12-7, +$550 so far), thanks to a prolific offense (.292 team BA, 5.6 runs per game). Tampa Bay lacks the rotation to deal with such a formidable attack (6.11 ERA, worst in the AL) and they?ve only won once in five tries on the road. We?ll lay the price with Erik Bedard (3.80 ERA), when he goes to the hill at Camden Yards. BEST BET: Bedard.
Detroit at Chicago W. Sox (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Chisox are storming to a fat lead in the AL Central (15-4, +$1115) thanks to the league?s best pitching staff (3.12 team ERA). The Tigers were terrific against righties in 2004 but are a lackluster 1-5 on the road vs. righties this year (-$440) and despite a 2-1 start against southpaws, we still don?t trust them after last season (-$1430 vs. lefties). We?ve been cleaning up with this team and we?ll keep riding them until they falter. BEST BET: White Sox in all games.
Boston at Texas (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The Red Sox are once again proving to be ineffective away from Fenway Park (only 5-6, -$205) and that could be bad news vs. a tenacious Texas team that dominated the opposition, particularly righthanders, at Arlington Stadium last year (+$2120). Curt Schilling has not looked at all sharp since returning from the DL (-$230, 7.13 ERA) but will still command a high price when he takes the hill in this series. We?ll look for the hard hitting Rangers (5.1 runs game) to deal him another rough outing. BEST BET: Rangers vs. Schilling.
L.A. Angels at Minnesota (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
Both these teams were pre-season favorites to capture their respective division titles. But the Twins have fallen behind a sizzling Chicago team while the Angels are in a dogfight within a very competitive AL West. What the Angels did best in 2004 was beat up on lefthanders in road games, posting an astonishing 20-7 (+$1220) mark in that situation. They are already 2-0 (+$205) this year and they?ll be going against Cy Young winner Johan Santana here at the Metrodome. We?ll be taking an enormous price with the visitor and you have to like LA?s chances. BEST BET: Angels vs. Santana.
Seattle at Oakland (3) 29th, 30th, 1st
The teams split a pair at Safeco last week, and fans of both teams have reasons to feel good about their teams at this juncture. The A?s are getting solid work from their rotation (3.63 ERA) despite the losses of Hudson and Mulder, and Seattle is also getting effective work from their mound corps (3.80). Jaime Moyer in particular appears rejuvenated (+$260, 2.53 ERA) and looks very inviting against can Oakland team that has averaged just 3.0 runs per game vs. lefties. The Mariners are 5-2 (+$355) on the road vs. righties, and Zito is not in line to face Moyer as things stand. BEST BET: Moyer.
