WinOnBaseball
Friday Report - 05/28/04
Season record: 100-107 -19.06 UNITS
(Note: WOB is now 49-26, 65.3% on OVER/UNDER plays this season.)
Eight plays for Friday:
UNDER 7.5 CHC (CLEMENT)/PIT (WELLS) -110 - 1 UNIT - 2:05pm Pacific
Clement has been spectacular this year, and Wells has been a safe bet at home, so I don't think a lot of runs will be scored while these starters are in. Additionally, Clement has had great success against the Pirate lineup.
OVER 7.5 NYM (GLAVINE)/FLA (WILLIS) +110 - 1 UNIT - 4:35pm Pacific
Both offenses are significantly better against lefties than they are against righties, and this game features two lefty starters. Also, the Florida hitters have had some pretty good success against Glavine. Willis has been slumping, with a 8.61 ERA in his last five starts.
OVER 8.5 SD (LAWRENCE)/MIL (DAVIS) -109 - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Davis has put together 8 quality starts in a row, but most of that has come against some pretty weak hitting clubs. He faces a San Diego lineup that has feasted on LH pitching. He's also back at Miller Park, one of the more hitter friendly parks. The Milwaukee offense should be able to have success against Lawrence, who is not very good.
STL (CARPENTER) +147 over Hou (Clemens) - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Carpenter has been very effective this year, and can be dominant when not giving up the long ball. He gave up 3 HRs in his last start, but a couple of them were wind aided. Another 4 HRs were given up in one bad start last month. Other than that, he's been predominantly a groundball pitcher, with the best defense in the majors backing him up, which is crucial in a park like Minute Maid. Clemens had his first bad start of the year in his last outing, but is still dominant. I just feel with St. Louis' pitching, defense, and hitting, this is pretty good value.
ARI (JOHNSON) -134 over LA (Alvarez) - 1 UNIT - 7:10pm Pacific
The Dodgers are slumping big time, and facing the Big Unit can't be helping their confidence. Johnson has dominated Dodger hitters in the past, and should have no problem with them tonight. The Dbacks have been horrible against lefties, but Alvarez has been very hittable lately. Johnson won't need much to work with to get the W here, as I don't think the LA bats will have any success against him.
SEA (PINEIRO) +236 over Bos (Martinez) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Pedro has dominated the Seattle hitters, and has been pitching very well. After a slow start, Pineiro has looked exceptional lately also. I don't expect the Mariners to do much of anything against Pedro, but I do think that Pineiro has the ability to shut down Boston as well. The game has a chance to be close during the late innings, and at this number, I'll take the dog.
UNDER 7.5 SEA (PINEIRO)/BOS (MARTINEZ) -109 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
UNDER 9.5 MIN (RADKE)/KC (GREINKE) +101 - 1 UNIT - 5:10pm Pacific
Radke has had pretty good success against the Kansas City lineup, and has been really good at Kauffman Stadium, where he's given up only 1 HR in his last 35+ IP there. Greinke is a future stud and should be able to hold his own against the Twins, who don't hit as well on the road. The problem may come when Greinke leaves the game, because KC's bullpen is pretty bad. However, I think Greinke will have good success while he's in, and this is a high enough number so that the bullpen won't be able push it over.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS
