Friday System Plays

RipIt3

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Nov 14, 2002
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The first night out of the gates was rough.
1-3-1 (-3.5 units)

Here's the games for tonight. All of the favs and dogs are according to the Dunkel Index. The W-L for the situations are for point differences in a certain category. For example: teams that are favored on the road by 1.00-1.49 points are 2-6 while teams that are favored at home by 2.00-2.49 points are 5-1.

Anaheim is .91 point away favorites over Detroit. Teams in this situation have gone 1-3 (25%). Anaheim (4-3-2-1 on road) is playing in their 3rd game in 4 days on the road. Detroit is 5-2-2-0 at home. Early Play: Detroit

Atlanta is .97 point home favorites over Phoenix. Teams in this situation have gone 2-5 (28.6%). Atlanta's home record stands at 2-6-1-0 while Phoenix is 4-6-0-1 on the road. Early Play: Phoenix

Carolina is 1.31 point home favorites over Philadelphia. Teams in this situation have gone 6-5 (54.5%) Carolina (6-2-2-1 at home) hasn't played in two days and Philadelphia (4-2-1-0) should be very well rested. Early Play: No play, should be a great game.

Chicago is .17 point home favorites over Washington. Teams in this situation have gone 1-1 (50%). I'm always on the wrong side when I play Washington games. Chicago(6-3-0-0 at home) is hot and are playing at home, but it's Washington (4-5-1-0 on the road) - yuck! No Play.

Dallas is 1.27 point home favorites over Colorado. Teams in this situation have gone 6-5 (54.5%). Colorado travelling after their win last night against Nashville. Colorado on the road is 5-0-1-2 while Detroit is 5-2-2-0 at home. Should be a great game, I'm going to watch it. No Play.

Montreal is 1.03 point away favorites over New Jersey. Teams in this situation have gone 2-6 (25%). Does anyone know how teams usually play when going on one game road trips? That's the situation tonight for Montreal. Montreal (3-1-1-0 on the road)is also starting out a 3 game in 4 night swing. I know that third game is tough, especially on road teams ... but what about the first game? Montreal returns home again after tonight. . I like NJ (5-3-0-0) as the home doggie. Early Play: New Jersey

St. Louis is .55 point away favorites over Edmonton. Teams in this situation have gone 1-3 (25%) Oilers (1-2-2-1 at home) have been in a tail spin - coming off a road trip doesn't help. Going against trend here as St. Louis is 5-1-0-0 on the road. Early Play: St. Louis

Tampa Bay is 1.54 point home favorites over San Jose. Teams in this situationhave gone 2-5 (28.6%). Tampa Bay at home: 6-0-0-1. San Jose on the road: 3-3-0-2. Against the trend, I don't think SJ stops TB's home unbeaten record. Early Pick: Tampa Bay

Toronto is .13 away favorites over Buffalo. Teams in this situation have gone 1-4 (20%). Last game of a home stand for Buffalo (2-4-1-0 at home). Toronto's (1-3-1-0 on road) travelling after a two day lay-off. Pick your poison. I like the home doggie.Early Play: Buffalo


I like to play the home dog, especially in the NHL. Since Nov 5th, home teams are 37-26 (58.7) and 17-7 (70.8%) as the underdog. Det, NJ, Ed, and Buf all qualify as home dogs tonight. If I had just played the home dogs last night (according to the Dunkel Index), I would have been 1-1 with plays on Calgary and Ottawa. I think the Detroit play tonight is fairly strong with Anaheim coming away with a tough come-from-behind win last night and then having to travel and play again on the road in Detroit. Be back later with more...
 

ddubs

Let's Go Boilers!!!
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Oct 22, 2000
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Maybe it's because it's 3am Central time, but I'm real confused with the Dunkel Index fav vs dog. How can NJ, Buf, and Det be home dogs??:confused:

Hitting the hay:sleep: . Good luck Friday!!
 

RipIt3

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Here's how the Dunkel Index currently ranks the teams...

TEAM - CURRENT RATING
1. Boston 11.95
2. Columbus 11.92
3. Washington 11.37
4. Chicago 11.04
5. Florida 11.02
6. Montreal 10.69
7. Vancouver 10.64
8. N.Y. Rangers 10.57
9. Anaheim 10.54
10. St. Louis 10.54
11. Carolina 10.31
12. Tampa Bay 10.18
13. N.Y. Islanders 10.16
14. Dallas 10.04
15. Minnesota 9.95
16. Nashville 9.82
17. Los Angeles 9.52
18. Philadelphia 9.50
19. Edmonton 9.49
20. Atlanta 9.45
21. Colorado 9.27
22. New Jersey 9.16
23. San Jose 9.14
24. Detroit 9.13
25. Phoenix 8.98
26. Calgary 8.90
27. Toronto 8.83
28. Pittsburgh 8.55
29. Buffalo 8.20
30. Ottawa 7.67

Now, here's the games for tonight, the first team listed is the favored team and the team with the star is the home team...

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15
Anaheim 10.54 ( 1) Detroit * 9.63
Atlanta * 9.95 ( 1) Phoenix 8.98
Carolina * 10.81 ( 1) Philadelphia 9.50
Chicago * 11.54 ( 0) Washington 11.37
Dallas * 10.54 ( 1) Colorado 9.27
Montreal 10.69 ( 1) New Jersey * 9.66
St. Louis 10.54 ( 1) Edmonton * 9.99
Tampa Bay * 10.68 ( 2) San Jose 9.14
Toronto 8.83 ( 0) Buffalo * 8.70
 

RipIt3

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Nov 14, 2002
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I didn't have the lines from my sportsbook last night when I went to bed at 3am. Finally have some time and they're up now, so these are the plays I'm leaning towards so far...

Phoenix -.5 -105

New Jersey -.5 -125

St. Louis -.5 +110

Tampa Bay -.5 +110

Buffalo -.5 +125


Possible plays on...

Carolina ml +100

Dallas - Colorado? Who knows. Colorado is tough on the road, as someone pointed out to me yesterday. Colorado ml +130? :shrug:

If I had to pick between Chicago and Washington, I'd be on Chi-Town. But like I said, Washington's burned me about 3 times in a row. I should fade myself :) Or just not play it ...

I like Detroit over Anaheim, but at what cost? -1.5 pays +105. Any thoughts?

Again, when I mention favs and dogs above, I'm not saying what the line has them at. I'm using the Dunkel Index system...

Back with more later
 

ddubs

Let's Go Boilers!!!
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Oct 22, 2000
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Carolina seems like a good play. Weekes is arguably the best goalie in hockey right now. Philly is having all sorts of problems on PP.

Det-1.5 is the only way to go, IMHO, if you're gonna make a bet in that game. I would never lay -300 on anyone, but after last nite's Quack win, they've gotta be running on fumes right now.

Good luck tonite, RIP!!
 

RipIt3

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Thanks ... I playing around with some things in Basketball and am going to try to apply them to hockey ... I'm going to look at the past weeks games and see if there's anything to it ... should be back in an hour or two
 

RipIt3

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Nov 14, 2002
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Final plays for tonight...

Carolina ml +100
They have the edge by the Dunkel Index and it appears to be the same with the view of you guys.

Buffalo -.5 +125
Again, they get the edge by Dunkel and reading about what happened after their last home game, getting booed off the ice, put me over the top on this play. Any team that gets booed off the ice and doesn't come out fired up the next game doesn't deserve to play ... and if that ends up happening, I deserve to lose my money because I flat out got beat...

Tampa Bay -.5 +110
A small underdog play. I was leaning towards Tampa despite Dunkel pointing to SJ and I just like Tampa at home, they're tough and home teams have been good in the NHL as of late. San Jose has been average on the road, so I'm going with Tampa.
 
Last edited:

RipIt3

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Nov 14, 2002
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Chi-Town
Added plays:

Parlay 1
Carolina ml +1.15
Montreal ml +1.5
Wash u 5.5 -1.30
1 unit to win 8.08

Parlay 2
Wash u 5.5 -1.30
Wash ml
1 unit to win 2.46

Phoenix -.5 -1.05
 

RipIt3

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 14, 2002
182
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Chi-Town
I didn't play the entire system card and it went 5-2-2 on the night. I need to find some consistency somewhere.

Last night:
Sides: 2-2
Parlays: 0-1-1

Be back later with tonight's games...
 
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