back refreshed from a few days at the beach with the day off today to coast back into baseball (another bottle of barbancourt bites the dust jack). totals still doing well - 7-1-1 posted on the forum this past week - so as long as they stay hot i'll try to keep posting. two so far for today:
fla/tb over 9o: number here at 9 in tampa so starts off a little low imo, with no half run dh adjustment, probably based on public's negative perception of buc's o and positive perception of a j burnett. but burnett a little off form of late, L3 6.89 era, 16.08 mba, 2-1 over. night era 4.71. last time out he gave up 6 runs @ phi in 3.1 innings, throwing 80 pitches.
sturtz not faring much better, L3 5.03 era, 13.27 mba, 2-1 over (6-3 over L9); 7.12 era at home; 7.14 era at night. only one quality start in L4 and coming off a 121 pitch outing @ ny five days ago.
marlins o has been solid, hitting .286 vs righties L10, averaging 4. 8 rpg, 5.5 vs righties. 6-3-1 over L10.
bucs hitting .266 vs righties, scoring 4 rpg L10, 4-6 o/u. may not jump out at you, but remember 7 of the 10 games were against bos and nyy (mussina, pettite, clemens, nomo, martinez - you get the picture - top two staffs in the al).
fla 25-15 over on the road this year, bucs 23-16 @ home. both bullpens under full strength.
atl/bos under 9-u: here we get the half run for the al park with two recently hot pitchers starting. burkett is having a career year - L3 1.77 era, 8.41 mba, 0-3 under; 2.26 era and 3-7 under on the road; 2.39 era and 5-11 under on the year.
arrojo seems to have made the switch to starter without missing a beat - L3 2.08 era, 9.69 mba; 3.62 era @ home.
braves hitting a measely .249 vs righties L10 and have been completely shut down in 4 of last 5 vs righties, hitting well under .200 in those 4 games. the 5th game was against phillies' person who hasn't exactly been on fire lately.
red sox doing better L10 vs righties, hitting .300, but that has been against cle, tb and tor, three mediocre staffs at best. not thinking they'll fare so well against burkett.
bos 16-23 under @ home this year, atl 23-20 under on the road, but 4-5-1 L10. these teams genarally play under games against each other, going 2-7 under over the last two seasons. 3 games TY in atl: perez beat castillo 4-3 (posted total 9); burkett shut out nomo and the sox 8-0 (
; arrojo beat maddux 9-5 (7-). winds dropping off tonight 5- 10 mph out to right.
umps unknown but unless someone really horrible pops up behind the plate playing these two for one unit each. good luck to all.
fla/tb over 9o: number here at 9 in tampa so starts off a little low imo, with no half run dh adjustment, probably based on public's negative perception of buc's o and positive perception of a j burnett. but burnett a little off form of late, L3 6.89 era, 16.08 mba, 2-1 over. night era 4.71. last time out he gave up 6 runs @ phi in 3.1 innings, throwing 80 pitches.
sturtz not faring much better, L3 5.03 era, 13.27 mba, 2-1 over (6-3 over L9); 7.12 era at home; 7.14 era at night. only one quality start in L4 and coming off a 121 pitch outing @ ny five days ago.
marlins o has been solid, hitting .286 vs righties L10, averaging 4. 8 rpg, 5.5 vs righties. 6-3-1 over L10.
bucs hitting .266 vs righties, scoring 4 rpg L10, 4-6 o/u. may not jump out at you, but remember 7 of the 10 games were against bos and nyy (mussina, pettite, clemens, nomo, martinez - you get the picture - top two staffs in the al).
fla 25-15 over on the road this year, bucs 23-16 @ home. both bullpens under full strength.
atl/bos under 9-u: here we get the half run for the al park with two recently hot pitchers starting. burkett is having a career year - L3 1.77 era, 8.41 mba, 0-3 under; 2.26 era and 3-7 under on the road; 2.39 era and 5-11 under on the year.
arrojo seems to have made the switch to starter without missing a beat - L3 2.08 era, 9.69 mba; 3.62 era @ home.
braves hitting a measely .249 vs righties L10 and have been completely shut down in 4 of last 5 vs righties, hitting well under .200 in those 4 games. the 5th game was against phillies' person who hasn't exactly been on fire lately.
red sox doing better L10 vs righties, hitting .300, but that has been against cle, tb and tor, three mediocre staffs at best. not thinking they'll fare so well against burkett.
bos 16-23 under @ home this year, atl 23-20 under on the road, but 4-5-1 L10. these teams genarally play under games against each other, going 2-7 under over the last two seasons. 3 games TY in atl: perez beat castillo 4-3 (posted total 9); burkett shut out nomo and the sox 8-0 (
; arrojo beat maddux 9-5 (7-). winds dropping off tonight 5- 10 mph out to right.umps unknown but unless someone really horrible pops up behind the plate playing these two for one unit each. good luck to all.
