totals go 1-2 on thursday witn two of the most horrible plays i've made this season in the philly and pitt overs. plays now 12-8-3 but 1-5 last 6 so proceed with caution.
we have some favorable umps rotating behind the plate tonight so, in an effort to break the two day funk i'm going with four plays that are supported by favorable ump trends. this has worked fairly well so far this season so let's see how they work this friday the thirteenth.
cle/cin under 10: mark hirschbeck behind the plate tonight. he's 5-11 to the under this year, with a so/w ratio of 2.07 and a nice low 7.41 rpg average. dessens has been solid enough at home this year, 4.09 era and 1-7 to the under. sabathia is who we need to step up for us. he's had an up and down year, usually faltered after heavy use. he pitched a gem of a game in kc on 7/2 then got shelled in stl on 7/7. however that nice job in kc took its toll with 124 pitches. with a good rest during the all-star break i'm hoping that he is well rested and ready to step up. cincy should cooperate with their .221 average vs lefties L10.
tb/mon over 8-: derryl cousins behind the plate has been a solid over ump for a while, 13-6 over this year, 36-16 over for the last two seasons. so/w rario a modest 1.63, averaging 11.05 rpg. before last night, montreal bats had been scorching, hitting .333 L10 and .342 vs lefties. vasquez has been less than average, 5.60 era L3, 6.12 era @ night, 5.62 era @ home. kennedy 3.79 era L3 but 5.87 era on the road and, as i.e. pointed out in his thread, is currently coping with a blister problem on his throwing hand.
det/stl under 9: jerry meals behind the plate has been a steady under play this year, 5-11 to the under, so/w ratio of 2.06, 8.16 rpg average. sparks solid for detroit, 3 of L4 quality starts, 3.48 era L3, 3.77 era TY, 3-5 under on the road. matthews also doing well, L3 2.76 era with miniscule 5.87 mba. 3.05 era TY, 1-2 under @ home. cards in a small slump lately vs righties, batting .239 L10.
min/mil under 9: john hirschbeck behind the plate and brad radke on the mound make for a nice under combo. this hirschbeck a remarkable 2-15 to the under this year, so/w ratio 3.00(highest in the majors i believe), 7.22 rpg average. radke was a money under play all of last year, after a bit of a slow start appears to be hitting his form now - 2.82 era and 0-2-1 under L3, 3.45 era and 3-5 under on the road. looks especially nice with mil only hitting .218 vs righties L10. where we have to hold our breath is with the inconsistent levrault pitching to the hot minny bats. levrault has got to know he's about one three-run dinger from a bus ride to mudville at this point. let's hope that's enough to keep him focused here.
only significant weather factor i see is 50% chance of rain in cincy. as usual all plays for one unit. good luck to all
we have some favorable umps rotating behind the plate tonight so, in an effort to break the two day funk i'm going with four plays that are supported by favorable ump trends. this has worked fairly well so far this season so let's see how they work this friday the thirteenth.
cle/cin under 10: mark hirschbeck behind the plate tonight. he's 5-11 to the under this year, with a so/w ratio of 2.07 and a nice low 7.41 rpg average. dessens has been solid enough at home this year, 4.09 era and 1-7 to the under. sabathia is who we need to step up for us. he's had an up and down year, usually faltered after heavy use. he pitched a gem of a game in kc on 7/2 then got shelled in stl on 7/7. however that nice job in kc took its toll with 124 pitches. with a good rest during the all-star break i'm hoping that he is well rested and ready to step up. cincy should cooperate with their .221 average vs lefties L10.
tb/mon over 8-: derryl cousins behind the plate has been a solid over ump for a while, 13-6 over this year, 36-16 over for the last two seasons. so/w rario a modest 1.63, averaging 11.05 rpg. before last night, montreal bats had been scorching, hitting .333 L10 and .342 vs lefties. vasquez has been less than average, 5.60 era L3, 6.12 era @ night, 5.62 era @ home. kennedy 3.79 era L3 but 5.87 era on the road and, as i.e. pointed out in his thread, is currently coping with a blister problem on his throwing hand.
det/stl under 9: jerry meals behind the plate has been a steady under play this year, 5-11 to the under, so/w ratio of 2.06, 8.16 rpg average. sparks solid for detroit, 3 of L4 quality starts, 3.48 era L3, 3.77 era TY, 3-5 under on the road. matthews also doing well, L3 2.76 era with miniscule 5.87 mba. 3.05 era TY, 1-2 under @ home. cards in a small slump lately vs righties, batting .239 L10.
min/mil under 9: john hirschbeck behind the plate and brad radke on the mound make for a nice under combo. this hirschbeck a remarkable 2-15 to the under this year, so/w ratio 3.00(highest in the majors i believe), 7.22 rpg average. radke was a money under play all of last year, after a bit of a slow start appears to be hitting his form now - 2.82 era and 0-2-1 under L3, 3.45 era and 3-5 under on the road. looks especially nice with mil only hitting .218 vs righties L10. where we have to hold our breath is with the inconsistent levrault pitching to the hot minny bats. levrault has got to know he's about one three-run dinger from a bus ride to mudville at this point. let's hope that's enough to keep him focused here.
only significant weather factor i see is 50% chance of rain in cincy. as usual all plays for one unit. good luck to all
