Friday

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks guys - would have liked to have that Spurs game to cap off the night, but a winning night always works, no matter how small. The Warriors played a great game, and they rallied well in the fourth when they were down 11, so hats off to them.

Rockets did the hard work! They are so much fun to watch.

Cheers

 

[jng]

Unless I'm wrong, this indicates that every time you plan to bet a dog of 7 or less you should instead bet the money line. I am far too lazy to do the math, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Thanks for the literate incisive posts, Jess.

J

Sorry bases - didn't see your post before tip off.






LINE % SU WINS (when the dog covers)

8-9 point dog 45.10%
7-8 point dog 49.90%
6-7 point dog 59.60%
5-6 point dog 67.90%
4-5 point dog 75.90%
3-4 point dog 80.10%
2-3 point dog 89.40%

 

[Happy Hippo]

Unless I'm wrong, this indicates that every time you plan to bet a dog of 7 or less you should instead bet the money line. I am far too lazy to do the math, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Thanks for the literate incisive posts, Jess.

J

This is actually a really interesting question, and after running the numbers I have to admit I am surprised, and having this information in hand is something that I will definitely utilize going forward.

Here's the breakdown. I based it on winning 55% of bets ATS, 1 unit bets, standard -110 juice. Of course, the numbers would vary based on your win percentage/weight of play/juice. The numbers in parentheses are units you would be up ATS, based on ML only plays, and the difference.


6-7 pt dog: ATS (+5.5 units), ML (+4.89 units), difference (-0.60 units)

5-6 pt dog: ATS (+5.5 units), ML (+10.17 units), difference (+4.67 units)

4-5 pt dog: ATS (+5.5 units), ML (+16.89 units), difference (+11.39 units)

3-4 pt dog: ATS (+5.5 units), ML (+7.93 units), difference (+2.43 units)

2-3 pt dog: ATS (+5.5 units), ML (+8.17 units), difference (+2.67 units)



So you can see that the most profitable ML dog bet you can consistently hit is the 4-5 point dog, followed by the 5-6 point dog. Betting these only on the ML should produce a more considerable profit, if you pick teams that cover at a consistent rate. Of course, you also don't have to win as many bets when you take the ML dog because of the reduced juice you pay and better winning odds you get. The break even point if you would bet only 4-5 pt dogs on the ML is around 49.7% as opposed to 52.38% for juiced bets.


Good stuff guys!

:toast:

 

[jng]

Thanks for doing the math. I've always thought that the best play was ML instead of -110 on the 1-3 point dogs. Not so, apparently.

J