Friday

[Smitty]

Military Bowl

how are temple and unc playing in the military bowl? is a question one may ask. my guess? great rotc programs.

ok, i'm going to keep this fairly simple. this one is for degenerates only. no sane person should wager money on this game. primarily because temple, much like their qb russo, is very inconsistent. they were dominated at buffalo, yet they beat memphis.

just a couple quick notes... both teams are led by head coaches in their first year at the school, so both teams have that whammy on them. yes, i know mack brown used to coach unc. but this is his first year back, so i think that counts.

unc throws the ball a lot with freshman qb howell. he's been pretty good. but temple's ranked 9th in the country in pass efficiency defense. so strength against strength there.

unc was 1-6 against bowl teams this year. with the only win being against miami in the 2nd game of the season.

so for me this comes down to this... we have a dog who can win the game. in fact, i don't even want to take the points. if i had slightly bigger balls, i'd only play the ML in this one. figure if temple is on their A-game, they will win. if not... it ain't gonna be close. oh, one other thing... this total is telling me the fellas who set these lines don't expect unc to put up a lot of points. one more plus for temple.

temple (+4.5) 2 units
temple (ML) 2 units to win 3.4
temple 1st H (ML) 2 units to win 2.8
under (53) 2 units

 

[Smitty]

Pinstripe Bowl

Pinstripe Bowl

i... i can't believe i'm doing this, but i'm on sparty.

michigan st (-3.5) 4 units
over (50) 2 units
michigan st 1st H (-2.5) 3 units. i can offer no logical explanation for this one. i'm playing another hunch. this feels like another one of those games where i'm supposed to take wake forest and somehow sparty plays their best game of the season. so i'm listening to my instinct. we'll see how that goes. about the only thing in my favor is that jamie newman has been a lot worse against bowl teams. overall, he threw 23 TDs and 10 INTs. but against bowl teams, he threw 11 TDs and 8 INTs. if you take out the season opener against utah st, those #s are 8 and 8. sparty didn't have their normal great pass defense this year, but they can still get after the qb. they are 15th in the country with 36 sacks. so they may be able to force newman into some mistakes.

sparty definitely played the tougher schedule. they had a 5-game losing streak, but 4 of those games were against wisconsin, ohio st, penn st, and michigan.

make no mistake - i fully understand it's dumb to take sparty laying points. lewerke has been incredibly inconsistent and they have no run game to speak of. they are still pretty good against the run, but that won't be much of a factor against wake.

can't wait to see how this one plays out.

 

[Smitty]

Texas Bowl

Texas Bowl

well, looks like i got some shitty lines on a couple of today's games. the late line movement really going against me. especially the total in the temple game. so could be another long day...

texas a&m (-6.5) 2 units
under (54) 2 units. not really liking either one right now, but i bet 'em, so i'm posting 'em. a&m is sort of an enigma. they don't have any bad losses (every loss was to a top-10 team) but they don't have any good wins either. they basically beat who they were supposed to and lost to who they were supposed to. so it's kinda hard to tell how good they really are. but they are "supposed" to win today.

ok st relies, obviously, on chuba. and a&m has only been ok against the run this year. but it seems like it's harder to get a way with a 1-dimensional offense in bowl games. and ok st has a freshman qb (sanders) who, well, has played like a freshman. on the season, he threw 16 TDs and 11 INTs. against bowl teams, he threw 4 TDs and 6 INTs. which brings me to another point. ok st only played 5 teams this year that are playing in a bowl game. that's a weak-ass schedule for a big 12 team. anyway, dru brown is also expected to see time at qb, and the 2-qb thing never seems to work.

ok st's defense allows opposing qbs to complete 60% of their passes and 7.5 yards/attempt. that's pretty bad. i can't believe i'm typing this (and putting my money on it), but i expect kelly mond to have a big day. and if a&m gets a lead, ok will struggle to play from behind.

 

[Smitty]

Holiday Bowl

Holiday Bowl

i may have gone a little crazy on the hawkeyes.

iowa (-2) 5 units
iowa 1st H (-.5) 3 units. well, as usual, i'm taking defense over offense. iowa's pass defense maybe isn't quite as good as past years, but they're still only allowing 5.98 yards/attempt, which means they tackle well. no surprise there. they should be able to frustrate a freshman qb who has been able to feast on pac 12 defenses. against non-conference opponents, he only threw 4 TDs and 4 INTs. usc went 1-2 out of conference, with the one win against fresno st.

stanley should have a good game against a mediocre pass defense.

maybe a little extra motivation, as the hawkeyes win one for hayden fry.

 

[Smitty]

Cheez-it Bowl

Cheez-it Bowl

seriously? they are playing for a bowl of cheez-its? :facepalm:

air force 1st H (-.5) 2 units
air force (-2.5) 2 units
over (69) 2 units. classic matchup.... option team against the air raid. well, the air force should know how to handle an air raid, amirite? see what i did there?

ok, just a couple quick notes. the cougs' defense isn't very good. so as much as i don't like playing option teams in bowl games, i still think air force will be able to move the ball consistently. that means fewer possessions for wash st and it will be harder for gordon to get in a rhythm.

and here's a big one... washington st hasn't beaten a bowl team all season.

 

[53defense]

Yes Sir, I saw what you did there......

And I'm not ashamed to say......

Brought a smile to my face:0074

Good Luck