friday
- Thread starter RAYMOND
- Start date
BEGINNING THURSDAY, AUGUST 3
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (4) 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
The Brewers have been slumping (3-7, -$590 last 10 days) but they have an opportunity this weekend to fatten up at home against one of the NL’s weakest teams. Pittsburgh is only 1-5 vs. Milwaukee in head to head competition (-$380) and they have the 2nd lowest team OPS in the National League (.697). The Pirates will send four righties to the mound in this series (Brewers +$990 in that situation), so we’ll use Corbin Burnes (3.00 last two starts) and Freddy Peralta (2.25 last two) vs. the Bucs. BEST BET: Burnes/F. Peralta.
Houston at N.Y. Yankees (4) 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
The Astros have the best pitching staff in the AL (3.77 ERA) and they just got better with the re-acquisition of Justin Verlander. They’ve been profitable outside of Minute Maid Park, including a perfect 7-0 mark in day games vs. left-handers (+$780, 7.4 runs per game at the plate). Carlos Rodon has not been sharp in five starts for New York (-$510, 6.29 ERA) and Nestor Cortes (5.16) is coming off the DL. Both make inviting targets in the scheduled afternoon contests. BEST BET: Astros vs. left-handers in day games.
Seattle at L.A. Angels (4) 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
The Mariners are neck & neck with the Angels in the AL West standings, but they have a stronger pitching staff (3.81 team ERA, 3rd best in the AL) and they’ve looked sharp in recent days (6-4, +$215 in their last 10, averaging 5.1 runs per game). Seattle has a 13-6 record in night games vs. left-handers (+$525) and they’ll face a pair of mediocre southpaws here at Anaheim. George Kirby (3.43 ERA) and Luis Castillo (2.95) are hard to pass up under the circumstances. BEST BET: Kirby & L. Castillo vs. left-handers.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, AUGUST 4
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Cubs have a hot hand at the moment (8-2, +$625 last 10 days), and are now just a couple of games off the pace in the competitive NL Central. The 69-37 (+$955) Braves are coasting to a division title and will likely wind up with the top seed in the post-season, so they can afford to coast. Chicago checks in here with a winning record when facing left-handers (+$560, 5.9 runs per game) and they’ll catch a generous underdog price against southpaw Max Fried in the series opener. BEST BET: Cubs vs. left-handers.
Washington at Cincinnati (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Reds (+$2190 overall) are in a tight three way race in the NL Central, and the Nationals make in inviting target this weekend at Great American Ballpark. They swept a four game set at Washington (+$420) and they’ll be sending their lefty ace Andrew Abbott to the mound. He’s led Cincinnati to victories in 9 of his first 11 starts (+$900, 2.35 ERA) and he’s backed by an offense that averages almost 5.0 runs per game. BEST BET: Abbott.
Colorado at St. Louis (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The disappointing Cardinals (48-62, -$2725) remain mired in last place in the NL Central. They gutted their starting rotation at the trade deadline as they look ahead to 2024. The Rockies have the worse record in the National league, including a dismal 9-24 mark vs. right-handers outside of Coors Field (-$1050). Neither of these clubs looks appealing at the moment. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Dodgers at San Diego (4) 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
The Dodgers are 5-1 vs. the Padres in head to head competition (+$400) but we may get a different result this weekend at Petco Park. The Padres own the best team ERA in the National league (3.66), far better than LA’s disappointing 4.44 mark. Their lineup remains formidable (5.4 runs per game last 10 days) and they are well within striking distance of a post-season berth. Blake Snell is flashing outstanding form (2.50 ERA) and the Dodgers have lost money vs. lefties in 2023 (-$1380). BEST BET: Snell.
Tampa Bay at Detroit (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Rays (66-45) have fallen to 2nd place in the AL East. But they are a perfect 3-0 vs. the Tigers in head to head play (+$300) and their pitching has been outstanding (3.80 team ERA, 2nd best in the league). However, Tampa Bay has not fared well outside of Tropicana Field (-$420) and the right-handers they send to the mound at Comerica may be vulnerable (Detroit +$1225 vs. righties overall). We’ll stay away from these two teams for now. BEST BET: None.
Chicago W. Sox at Cleveland (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Guardians unloaded talent at the trade deadline even though they are within a couple of games of 1st place in the admittedly weak AL Central. They’ve also lost money vs. Chicago in head to head play (-$315). The White Sox average a healthy 4.9 runs per game vs. lefties, and they’ll catch a nice price when Mike Clevinger (+$365, 3.59 ERA in 13 starts) faces Cleveland southpaw Logan Allen in the series opener. BEST BET: Clevinger vs. L. Allen.
Toronto at Boston (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Blue Jays are 10 games over .500 and currently in line for the final AL wildcard slot. But they are winless vs. the Red Sox in head to head competition (0-7, -$1130) and they average fewer runs per game than the home team. Boston is within striking distance for a wild-card slot and, unlike Toronto, they’ve been a money-maker in 2023 (+775). Brayan Bello (3.79) and James Paxton (3.34) look like solid choices at Fenway. BEST BET: Paxton/Bello.
Kansas City at Philadelphia (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Phillies had a strong series at Miami, just missing out on a four game sweep of the fading Marlins. But they’ve lost money vs. righties at Citizens Bank (-$635) and they’ll be facing a Kansas City team that’s on a six game winning streak (+$880 last 10 days, averaging 5.4 runs per game at the plate). We’d be tempted to try to steal wins with the hot visitor, but none of the presumed KC starters in this series look up to the task (5.14 team ERA). BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Mets at Baltimore (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Mets just blew up their $360 million disaster of a team, then followed up by getting swept by the hapless Royals. They are only 24-35 outside of CitiField (-$1840) and they’ll be taking on the team with the best record in the AL (O’s 67-42, $3000). Dean Kremer (+$1200), Kyle Bradish (+$410, 3.33 ERA) and Kyle Gibson (2.25 ERA last two starts) should help the hot home team brush aside the beleaguered Mets. BEST BET: Kremer/Bradish/Gibson.
Miami at Texas (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Marlins have been losing ground since the All-Star Break, and they face a brutal schedule in August. They’ve struggled vs. strong clubs, and Texas is one of the strongest (37-20, +$1010), with an American League best .802 OPS, averaging 5.7 runs per game. Miami is 3-8 vs. lefties on the road (-$530) and they’ll face a couple of tough ones at Arlington. BEST BET: Left-handers vs. the Marlins.
Arizona at Minnesota (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The D’backs have fallen back in the NL West standings (3-7, -$505 last 10 days) and their post-season hopes are in jeopardy. But they match up well vs. the Twins, who have lost money vs. righties in 2023 (-$975). Merrill Kelly (+$450, 3.23) and Zac Gallen (3.41 in 23 starts) are expected to face Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda when they take their turns. Arizona is 22-13 record vs. righties on the road (+$1450). BEST BET: M. Kelly & Gallen vs. right-handers.
BEGINNING SATURDAY, AUGUST 5
San Francisco at Oakland (2) 5th, 6th
The Giants have won 7 of their last 10 (+$345) and their pitching looked very sharp over that stretch (2.37 ERA among starters). They’ll be heavily favored against the hapless Athletics (30-80, -$2490) and are likely to prevail. But neither of the visitor’s starters appeals to us, and if the home team can steal a split it could be costly. We’ll steer clear for now. BEST BET: None.
