07:35 PM MLB [905] CHI CUBS -1.5 -127 ( J HAMMEL -R / B NORRIS -R )
10:15 PM MLB [914] TOTAL u5.5 -110 (LA DODGERS vrs SFO GIANTS) ( C KERSHAW -L / J CUETO -R )
08:10 PM MLB [921] BOS RED SOX -140 ( S WRIGHT -R / T DUFFEY -R )
1 unit bet pays 4.85 ....betdsi line
08:10 PM MLB [907] NY METS +116 ( M HARVEY -R / J GUERRA -R )
08:10 PM MLB [924] TOTAL u8-115 (KC ROYALS vrs CHI WHITE SOX) ( I KENNEDY -R / C SALE -L )
10:05 PM MLB [925] CLE INDIANS -131 ( C KLUBER -R / H SANTIAGO -L )
07:10 PM MLB [929] OAK ATHLETICS -113 ( S GRAY -R / A DESCLAFANI -R )
1 unit bet pays 12 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 8-64, +0.04 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074x34:
it actually a much less harmful, but still scary looking, shelf cloud
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="7fiy9F2"><a href="//imgur.com/7fiy9F2">View post on imgur.com</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Toronto has 16 bullpen losses this season - tied with the Reds for worst! and Toro vs Balt tonight - Balt has best bullpen ERA in the league.
under 5.5 (Dodgers vrs Giants)
Cueto has allowed zero runs in his last 3 home starts combined
Kershaw has allowed 1 run in his last 5 road starts combined....under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 starts combined
Value on the 5.5 O/U line: bookies have no problem running an 'over' total to 12 or 13 when necessary - but they cannot hardly ever take it below 6, even when needed. Most 6 or 6.5 get bet up, even when you expect a 1-0 game. Like tonight at SF. Kershaw is pitching incredible (0.81 ERA last 7), and Cueto has such a huge showy ego, you know he's gonna match Kershaw almost pitch for pitch. Everyone's talking about how Kershaw is having one of the best runs of any pitcher since Walter Johnson, and Cueto will simply not stand being in any pitching rival's shadow, head to head. The line should be 3.5, but books can't ever set one that low...that gives us extra value when taking extreme low scoring games, something we don't get taking extreme high scoring games.
6 of Kershaw's last 10 starts were game total 5 runs or less....Under is 21-6-2 in Kershaws last 29 starts vs. SF.
4 of Cueto's last 10 starts were game total 5 or less, with two sixes mixed in...he's off a 1-0 pitcher duel vs Pomeranz in his last home start.
LA under hit in 8 of last 10, SF under last 6 at home is 4-1-1
SF offense banged up, with Pence and Pagan out and Posey far from 100%...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Estrada carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last start but ultimately came up short. Desptie that, he finished the start with an AL-best .167 opponents' batting average and he has allowed five hits or fewer in eight straight starts.
What a day [last start] for Marco Estrada as he went 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks against the all-mighty Red Sawx. He had his no-hit bid broken up in the 8th with a solo shot, then came in for the 9th where he gave up a double (that scored) before being pulled. Way to go and double his ERA in two unnecessary ninth inning pitches!..The guy is set for major regression in the ERA department, and even if he doesn't fall all the way down to his 4.68 xFIP, he could easily go 4.00 ERA the rest of the way and that's not cool, especially when I see him going around 7.25 K/9 the rest of way as he currently holds a 3.50 BB/9. It's not bad... I simply see people praising Estrada like he's golden without the understanding of his career low 7.3% HR/FB rate that's 3.5 points lower than his 10.8% career rate.
Cashner spent some tinkering with his slider in mid-May to much success. The pitch?s velocity has returned to where it was at the end of 2015. Cashner has already beaten the Rockies twice, allowing three runs in each start.
---
One clear reason for Harvey?s renewed success is more life on his fastball. That pitch has averaged 95.3 mph in his past two starts compared with 94.0 mph in his opening 10 starts of the season. Opponents were hitting .336 against his fastball in those first 10 starts. They?re hitting .192 against his fastball in the past two outings.
Manager Terry Collins forecasted that Harvey ultimately would rebound after getting a hangover from his 2015 workload out of his system. Harvey logged 216 innings, including the postseason, last year. That was the most innings in a first season back from Tommy John surgery. Harvey has acknowledged mechanical issues as well.
?You have a bad start and I know what?s going to be said -- ?Oh, he?s back in a funk again,?? Collins said Thursday in Milwaukee. ?We?ve just got to continue forward. He feels good about how he?s throwing. He feels good about the way the ball is coming out of his hand. That means a lot. His confidence is really, really good right now. So I would say he?s out of the woods. But we?ve got a lot of starts to go.?
Oakland at Cincinnati
Play: Oakland -115
This is how bad pitching is for the Reds: They are eagerly welcoming back second-year big leaguer Anthony DeSclafani to the mound tonight for his season debut. DeSclafani has been out since the end of spring training with an oblique strain.
DeSclafani did display a glimpse of potential in his rookie season last year, but finished by losing his last three starts giving up 17 runs. He has yet to solve hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with a 5.11 home ERA. Cincinnati is 2-8 in DeSclafani's last 10 starts.
Since it's his big league first start of 2016, DeSclafani could be on a pitch count. That means the Reds' bullpen - the worst in the majors - is likely to be heavily involved.
The flip side of this equation is believing that A's starter Sonny Gray is back to his stud form of the past three seasons. This is essential to the handicap because the A's have lost seven in a row on the road and are down outfielder Josh Reddick and also may be missing outfielder Khris Davis, who has a finger injury.
The mystery of why Gray has been so bad this season was solved a couple of weeks ago when he went on the DL with a strained trapezius muscle. Looking to buy low, I traded for Gray in my American League fantasy league dealing closer Huston Street for him after watching Gray's road performance against the Astros this past Sunday.
That was Gray's first start since coming off the DL and he was sharp giving up one earned run in five innings with five strikeouts and seven ground ball outs. Gray was excellent on the road last season going 8-3 with a 2.82 ERA. So the Sonny Gray buy sign is on for me at this price.
The Reds have dropped nine of their last 12 home games and are 2-9 the past 11 times going against a righty at Great American Ball Park. The A's are far from a good team, but they have taken care of business against bad teams winning six of the last seven times versus foes with a winning percentage below .400.
Detroit (5 innings)+125
On the surface it would seem Mike Pelfrey is having a rough season. He signed a 2-year $16-million deal in the off season but it took two months for him to record a victory for his new team. Pelfrey is now just 1-5 with a 4.76 ERA but a closer look reveals he's been on the wrong end of some bad luck. With his never-ending hand licking, the former top-10 pick is a bit of an odd duck on the mound.His batting average of batted balls in play (BAPIP) is on the high side at .338 so a likely correction to the good is coming. His 29.3% fly-ball percentage is in the bottom half of the guys taking the bump today. We've already seen some improvement there, as Pelfrey hasn't given up a home run in his last two starts, which is down from the four he gave up during the two starts prior to that.
CC Sabathia is 1-2 with a 1.13 in his four starts since returning from the disabled list but this guy has been walking a fine line with his 37.2% fly ball percentage. Combine that with his low BAPIP of .281 and we trust that his fairy tale run is going to end soon. Sabathia is walking guys too, putting 3.78 men on per 9 innings. The Yankees continue to roll out one of the better bullpens in the American League so we will continue our attack on them in the first five innings. The Angels weak pitching made these Yankees bats look formidable and when you combine that with Sabathia's seemingly apparent resurgance, we get the perfect sell-high opportunity. Detroit figures to expose Sabathia early.
Baltimore +115 over TORONTO
Kevin Gausman has zero wins this season in nine games started for the first place Orioles. Kevin Gausman is Baltimore?s best starter and it?s not even close. Both on the surface (3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and even more so underneath it (3.43 xERA, 13 BB, 50 K?s in 54 IP, 46% GB%), Gausman not winning a game is as bizarre as Marco Estrada stick-handling through lineups every start. Gausman?s 12.6% swing and miss rate is the seventh highest among all qualified starters in the AL. Bad luck is the only thing preventing him from winning.
With an 88 MPH fastball, with 15 walks over his last 37 innings, with a 29% groundball rate and 53% fly-ball rate (the highest in the majors) and with falling behind in the count to 56% of every batter he?s faced over his past five starts, Marco Estrada?s ERA over that span was 2.43. His ERA on the year is 2.41. However, Estrada?s xERA over his last five starts was 4.88, which is very close to his season xERA. A careful look at Estrada?s skills strongly suggests this breakout isn?t for real. His skills remain as below average as they have been through a mostly unremarkable career, and his lofty current value is based largely on an incredibly misleading ERA and some other favorable luck. Estrada is a pitcher that should not be dominating MLB lineups or pitching deep into games.
Though Estrada has demonstrated the ability to sustain a relatively normal hit rate (his career mark is 31% across 797 IP), this years mark of 20% is not a level any pitcher can maintain over the long term. The Orioles are second in MLB in FB% and lead in HR, making this another risky start for the extreme fly-ball pitcher, as Rogers Centre increases LHB HR by 14% and RHB HR by 21%. If Estrada gets knocked out early here, it means nothing because every pitcher has rough outings. The numbers say that there are not many pitchers in baseball with worse skills than Marco Estrada so we should be seeing a string of blowups over the next four months. What we know for sure is that Estrada is overpriced to an extreme level.
10:15 PM MLB [914] TOTAL u5.5 -110 (LA DODGERS vrs SFO GIANTS) ( C KERSHAW -L / J CUETO -R )
08:10 PM MLB [921] BOS RED SOX -140 ( S WRIGHT -R / T DUFFEY -R )
1 unit bet pays 4.85 ....betdsi line
08:10 PM MLB [907] NY METS +116 ( M HARVEY -R / J GUERRA -R )
08:10 PM MLB [924] TOTAL u8-115 (KC ROYALS vrs CHI WHITE SOX) ( I KENNEDY -R / C SALE -L )
10:05 PM MLB [925] CLE INDIANS -131 ( C KLUBER -R / H SANTIAGO -L )
07:10 PM MLB [929] OAK ATHLETICS -113 ( S GRAY -R / A DESCLAFANI -R )
1 unit bet pays 12 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 8-64, +0.04 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074x34:
it actually a much less harmful, but still scary looking, shelf cloud
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="7fiy9F2"><a href="//imgur.com/7fiy9F2">View post on imgur.com</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Toronto has 16 bullpen losses this season - tied with the Reds for worst! and Toro vs Balt tonight - Balt has best bullpen ERA in the league.
under 5.5 (Dodgers vrs Giants)
Cueto has allowed zero runs in his last 3 home starts combined
Kershaw has allowed 1 run in his last 5 road starts combined....under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 starts combined
Value on the 5.5 O/U line: bookies have no problem running an 'over' total to 12 or 13 when necessary - but they cannot hardly ever take it below 6, even when needed. Most 6 or 6.5 get bet up, even when you expect a 1-0 game. Like tonight at SF. Kershaw is pitching incredible (0.81 ERA last 7), and Cueto has such a huge showy ego, you know he's gonna match Kershaw almost pitch for pitch. Everyone's talking about how Kershaw is having one of the best runs of any pitcher since Walter Johnson, and Cueto will simply not stand being in any pitching rival's shadow, head to head. The line should be 3.5, but books can't ever set one that low...that gives us extra value when taking extreme low scoring games, something we don't get taking extreme high scoring games.
6 of Kershaw's last 10 starts were game total 5 runs or less....Under is 21-6-2 in Kershaws last 29 starts vs. SF.
4 of Cueto's last 10 starts were game total 5 or less, with two sixes mixed in...he's off a 1-0 pitcher duel vs Pomeranz in his last home start.
LA under hit in 8 of last 10, SF under last 6 at home is 4-1-1
SF offense banged up, with Pence and Pagan out and Posey far from 100%...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Estrada carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last start but ultimately came up short. Desptie that, he finished the start with an AL-best .167 opponents' batting average and he has allowed five hits or fewer in eight straight starts.
What a day [last start] for Marco Estrada as he went 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks against the all-mighty Red Sawx. He had his no-hit bid broken up in the 8th with a solo shot, then came in for the 9th where he gave up a double (that scored) before being pulled. Way to go and double his ERA in two unnecessary ninth inning pitches!..The guy is set for major regression in the ERA department, and even if he doesn't fall all the way down to his 4.68 xFIP, he could easily go 4.00 ERA the rest of the way and that's not cool, especially when I see him going around 7.25 K/9 the rest of way as he currently holds a 3.50 BB/9. It's not bad... I simply see people praising Estrada like he's golden without the understanding of his career low 7.3% HR/FB rate that's 3.5 points lower than his 10.8% career rate.
Cashner spent some tinkering with his slider in mid-May to much success. The pitch?s velocity has returned to where it was at the end of 2015. Cashner has already beaten the Rockies twice, allowing three runs in each start.
---
One clear reason for Harvey?s renewed success is more life on his fastball. That pitch has averaged 95.3 mph in his past two starts compared with 94.0 mph in his opening 10 starts of the season. Opponents were hitting .336 against his fastball in those first 10 starts. They?re hitting .192 against his fastball in the past two outings.
Manager Terry Collins forecasted that Harvey ultimately would rebound after getting a hangover from his 2015 workload out of his system. Harvey logged 216 innings, including the postseason, last year. That was the most innings in a first season back from Tommy John surgery. Harvey has acknowledged mechanical issues as well.
?You have a bad start and I know what?s going to be said -- ?Oh, he?s back in a funk again,?? Collins said Thursday in Milwaukee. ?We?ve just got to continue forward. He feels good about how he?s throwing. He feels good about the way the ball is coming out of his hand. That means a lot. His confidence is really, really good right now. So I would say he?s out of the woods. But we?ve got a lot of starts to go.?
Oakland at Cincinnati
Play: Oakland -115
This is how bad pitching is for the Reds: They are eagerly welcoming back second-year big leaguer Anthony DeSclafani to the mound tonight for his season debut. DeSclafani has been out since the end of spring training with an oblique strain.
DeSclafani did display a glimpse of potential in his rookie season last year, but finished by losing his last three starts giving up 17 runs. He has yet to solve hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with a 5.11 home ERA. Cincinnati is 2-8 in DeSclafani's last 10 starts.
Since it's his big league first start of 2016, DeSclafani could be on a pitch count. That means the Reds' bullpen - the worst in the majors - is likely to be heavily involved.
The flip side of this equation is believing that A's starter Sonny Gray is back to his stud form of the past three seasons. This is essential to the handicap because the A's have lost seven in a row on the road and are down outfielder Josh Reddick and also may be missing outfielder Khris Davis, who has a finger injury.
The mystery of why Gray has been so bad this season was solved a couple of weeks ago when he went on the DL with a strained trapezius muscle. Looking to buy low, I traded for Gray in my American League fantasy league dealing closer Huston Street for him after watching Gray's road performance against the Astros this past Sunday.
That was Gray's first start since coming off the DL and he was sharp giving up one earned run in five innings with five strikeouts and seven ground ball outs. Gray was excellent on the road last season going 8-3 with a 2.82 ERA. So the Sonny Gray buy sign is on for me at this price.
The Reds have dropped nine of their last 12 home games and are 2-9 the past 11 times going against a righty at Great American Ball Park. The A's are far from a good team, but they have taken care of business against bad teams winning six of the last seven times versus foes with a winning percentage below .400.
Detroit (5 innings)+125
On the surface it would seem Mike Pelfrey is having a rough season. He signed a 2-year $16-million deal in the off season but it took two months for him to record a victory for his new team. Pelfrey is now just 1-5 with a 4.76 ERA but a closer look reveals he's been on the wrong end of some bad luck. With his never-ending hand licking, the former top-10 pick is a bit of an odd duck on the mound.His batting average of batted balls in play (BAPIP) is on the high side at .338 so a likely correction to the good is coming. His 29.3% fly-ball percentage is in the bottom half of the guys taking the bump today. We've already seen some improvement there, as Pelfrey hasn't given up a home run in his last two starts, which is down from the four he gave up during the two starts prior to that.
CC Sabathia is 1-2 with a 1.13 in his four starts since returning from the disabled list but this guy has been walking a fine line with his 37.2% fly ball percentage. Combine that with his low BAPIP of .281 and we trust that his fairy tale run is going to end soon. Sabathia is walking guys too, putting 3.78 men on per 9 innings. The Yankees continue to roll out one of the better bullpens in the American League so we will continue our attack on them in the first five innings. The Angels weak pitching made these Yankees bats look formidable and when you combine that with Sabathia's seemingly apparent resurgance, we get the perfect sell-high opportunity. Detroit figures to expose Sabathia early.
Baltimore +115 over TORONTO
Kevin Gausman has zero wins this season in nine games started for the first place Orioles. Kevin Gausman is Baltimore?s best starter and it?s not even close. Both on the surface (3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and even more so underneath it (3.43 xERA, 13 BB, 50 K?s in 54 IP, 46% GB%), Gausman not winning a game is as bizarre as Marco Estrada stick-handling through lineups every start. Gausman?s 12.6% swing and miss rate is the seventh highest among all qualified starters in the AL. Bad luck is the only thing preventing him from winning.
With an 88 MPH fastball, with 15 walks over his last 37 innings, with a 29% groundball rate and 53% fly-ball rate (the highest in the majors) and with falling behind in the count to 56% of every batter he?s faced over his past five starts, Marco Estrada?s ERA over that span was 2.43. His ERA on the year is 2.41. However, Estrada?s xERA over his last five starts was 4.88, which is very close to his season xERA. A careful look at Estrada?s skills strongly suggests this breakout isn?t for real. His skills remain as below average as they have been through a mostly unremarkable career, and his lofty current value is based largely on an incredibly misleading ERA and some other favorable luck. Estrada is a pitcher that should not be dominating MLB lineups or pitching deep into games.
Though Estrada has demonstrated the ability to sustain a relatively normal hit rate (his career mark is 31% across 797 IP), this years mark of 20% is not a level any pitcher can maintain over the long term. The Orioles are second in MLB in FB% and lead in HR, making this another risky start for the extreme fly-ball pitcher, as Rogers Centre increases LHB HR by 14% and RHB HR by 21%. If Estrada gets knocked out early here, it means nothing because every pitcher has rough outings. The numbers say that there are not many pitchers in baseball with worse skills than Marco Estrada so we should be seeing a string of blowups over the next four months. What we know for sure is that Estrada is overpriced to an extreme level.
