TOTAL u8-105 (MIL BREWERS vrs PHI PHILLIES) ( J NELSON -R / V VELASQUEZ -R )
NY METS -185 ( N SYNDERGAARD -R/ ACTION )
TOTAL u7.5 -120 (SFO GIANTS vrs STL CARDINALS) ( J CUETO -R / A WAINWRIGHT -R )
SDG PADRES -145 ( ACTION /D POMERANZ -L )
TOTAL u8-115 (NY YANKEES vrs BAL ORIOLES) ( N EOVALDI -R / C TILLMAN -R )
BOS RED SOX -175 ( R DICKEY -R / D PRICE -L )
PIT PIRATES -154 ( ACTION /F LIRIANO -L )
1 unit bet pays 44 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 7-56, -4.52 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7
Goood luck everyone!! :00hour :toast:
R.A. Dickey's team has won only one of his last 10 starts...David Price's team has won all but one of his last 10 starts vs Toronto!
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
It had been 658 days since we last saw Yu Darvish pitch on MLB dirt and he did not disappoint with a line of 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. It was all there, his breaking stuff, Fastball command, and the velocity. Oh man the velocity! After averaging 92.5mph in 2014, he averaged 93.9mph in his debut, hitting near 98 at times. Hot damn! Yes, the adrenaline was most likely kicking in and affecting it like we see in major debuts from prospect pitchers, but it's an encouraging sign that Darvish is back to his old tricks again. The biggest concern I have for Darvish isn't the innings - he started late enough into the season that I doubt he'll be limited all too much this year - but rather that his walk rate will stay this low given that he has a career 3.58 BB/9. Oh and the fact that TJS aside, he's always had injury issues. But hey! This is Top 10 upside given how poorly the studs have pitched this year....
Jimmy Nelson - 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks in last start. That 4.52 FIP, 4.26 xFIP and 3.50 BB/9 turn me off more than watching reruns of The Joy Of Painting.
Nathan Eovaldi went 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks in last start, raising his K/9 to 8.49 and lowering his FIP to 3.53 It's getting to the point that I really need to consider if he's legit, and upon close inspection there are some odd things going on under the hood. For example, Eovaldi is getting 10% more grounders on his Four-Seamer without any discernable change to its movement, velocity, zone rate, etc. It's possible it's due to him placing balls better in the strikezone, though I'm leaning toward noise rather that a huge shift in batted ball profile. Then there is his Slider, which is a weird beast in itself - he's throwing it in the zone over 20 points more than 2015, and he's getting batters to chase over 50% out of the zone, though they are making contact on those poor pitches nearly 90% of the time. You'd think that would dictate a low BAA or LD rate, but it's actually right in line with previous years - .318 BAA, 26.8% LD rate. It's peculiar and maybe his improved control really is all that he needed - BB rate down from 7.3% to 5.9% - but it makes me think this is smoke-and-mirrors more than a legit stud in the making.
Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
2015-16 Strikeout rate increase: 37 percent
2016 Stats: 7-1, 2.92 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27 BB, 61 K in 64.2 IP
After starting Game 1 in both ALDS and ALCS for the Orioles in 2014, Chris Tillman endured a rocky follow-up campaign as his ERA ballooned to 4.99 in 2015. Fortunately for the club, the right-hander has reverted to being one of the game?s most underrated starters in 2016, and he?s striking out more batters than ever before.
Like Verlander, the 28-year-old has decreased his fastball usage in favor of a cutter/slider, an effective strategy for messing with opponents? scouting reports and missing bats. According to Fangraphs, batters have whiffed on over 15 percent of Tillman?s cutters.
Would you have guessed that Tillman?s been a top-five starter in the AL by wins above replacement (WAR)? He hasn?t been tagged with a loss since April 14. If Baltimore can overtake Boston in the AL East or sustain its position in the wild card race, Tillman should be in line to toe the rubber for at least one more massive October matchup.
The Royals are 4-1 vs. the AL Central this year with Volquez on the mound.
The Cardinals have won Wainwright?s last seven starts, and the righty has shown more snap to his curveball and more life on his fastball as of late. He finished seven innings his last time out, the first time he?s gone that deep all season.
Brewers vs. Phillies
Play: Under 7?
Vincent Velasquez is glad to be home where he is 3-1 with a 0.74 ERA and a WHIP of 0.781 in four starts. His numbers are ugly, but roadtrips to Chicago and Detroit will do that to a pitcher. Aaron Hill is the only Brewer to have seen the righty and he's 1-for-2 in those games. Milwaukee's lineup isn't very good as evidenced by the .223 batting average on the road before Thursday. The Phillies bullpen hasn't been terrible with just one loss and one blown save at home. Their offense has been bad hitting around .215 in their last eight games. Jimmy Nelson has allowed three runs and 15 hits in his last three outings so the righty should find some success on Friday. Last year he was touched up a bit by the Phillies, but their offense is much worse this year. These two offenses should be held down on Friday.
St. Louis (+115) over San Francisco
St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright is the type of starting pitcher that I like to bet on in baseball this time of the season. The big story behind Wainwright early on this season was how badly the 34-year-old was pitching after what had been a stellar career before this year. Wainwright made some adjustments with his delivery a few starts back and spoke about them afterwards. Wainwright dropped his arm slot, and since then he's looked much better all around with an ERA of just 3.21 while upping his strikeouts and lowering his walks as well. These changes are huge and most importantly make Wainwright undervalued right now. On the other side of things here San Francisco goes with Johnny Cueto here as it looks like Cueto is having a sensational season, but a closer look shows he's had the good fortune of facing the light-hitting San Diego Padres in 3 of his starts already this season, all of which were 9-inning outings where he allowed just 1 run combined. The Padres are on record-setting levels this year for being one of the worst offensive teams in MLB the last 35 years. If you take those Padres starts out of the numbers you see Cueto with an ERA of 3.30 this season, which would be right around his career numbers overall and making him overvalued here. Added all up and the value here is on the Cardinals in this one.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Atlanta Braves +167
Pitching in tonight's matchup is for the Braves RH Julio Teheran (1-5, 2.77 ERA) and on the hill for the Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (4-3, 3.00) Teheran has been pitching his usual consistent baseball for the Braves. As usual the Braves, one of the worse teams in baseball have not given him any run support this year and this has been the case for a long time in Teheran starts. Teheran is getting much better as the year has gone on after going 0-3 with a 4.60 ERA in April he turned that around in May with a ERA of 1.38. On the road this year Teheran has been very good with a 2.20 ERA and a WHIP of 0.767. His opponent tonight Kenta Maeda has been starting to regress of late. In his last 3 starts he has a ERA of 5.14. Maeda has really struggled at Dodger Stadium with a 4.08 ERA and a WHIP of 1.256 this year. The Dodgers are coming home from a 7 game road trip and we like that situation as well to bet against them here. The Braves are playing their best baseball of the year winning 4 out of their last 7 games. Not bad for the worse team in baseball.
New York at Baltimore
Play: Under 8
My clients and I have bet on Nathan Eovaldi in each of his last two starts, cashing a right side winner with the Yanks 6-0 win over Toronto and a wrong side winner when the Yanks beat the Rays 2-1 despite getting only one hit. Eovaldi was nothing short of outstanding in both of those outings, an emerging ace level hurler who is not yet fully respected by the betting marketplace.
Make no mistake about it. Eovaldi is now only tasked with throwing six innings thanks to the dominance of the Betances/Miller/Chapman relief trio in the seventh, eighth and ninth. Since Chapman joined the team following his early suspension, Eovaldi has gone 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA, striking out more batters (20) than hits allowed (17). Between strikeouts (8.5 K/9) and ground balls (54.3%), Eovaldi is a good fit for Camden Yards.
Each of Eovaldi?s last three starts have stayed Under the total with room to spare. He?s 6-4 to the Under this year, and it?s surely worth noting that the Yankees scored at least seven runs in all four Overs. I don?t expect that type of offensive outburst tonight, because this Yankees lineup has completely stopped hitting on the road. They?ve managed to plate only 19 runs through the first seven games of their current road trip. But that?s just the tip of the iceberg. For the full season, the Bronx Bombers are dead last in the major leagues in batting average (.223), on-base-percentage (.286) and slugging percentage (.331) on the highway, a consistent track record of offensive futility.
That?s bad news against Chris Tillman. His 7-1 record, 2.92 ERA and 3.78 FIP are all career bests. His 8.5 K/9 ratio and 10.0 swinging strike percentage are also career highs. He held the Yankees to five hits and one run in seven dominant innings against them in his lone previous start against New York this season. In seven previous home starts this year, Tillman has allowed a grand total of nine runs. And the Orioles bullpen behind him ranks #3 in baseball in ERA; a pen that is every bit as elite as the Yankees bullpen they are facing. Expect runs to be rather hard to come by here!
NY METS -185 ( N SYNDERGAARD -R/ ACTION )
TOTAL u7.5 -120 (SFO GIANTS vrs STL CARDINALS) ( J CUETO -R / A WAINWRIGHT -R )
SDG PADRES -145 ( ACTION /D POMERANZ -L )
TOTAL u8-115 (NY YANKEES vrs BAL ORIOLES) ( N EOVALDI -R / C TILLMAN -R )
BOS RED SOX -175 ( R DICKEY -R / D PRICE -L )
PIT PIRATES -154 ( ACTION /F LIRIANO -L )
1 unit bet pays 44 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 7-56, -4.52 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7
Goood luck everyone!! :00hour :toast:
R.A. Dickey's team has won only one of his last 10 starts...David Price's team has won all but one of his last 10 starts vs Toronto!
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
It had been 658 days since we last saw Yu Darvish pitch on MLB dirt and he did not disappoint with a line of 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. It was all there, his breaking stuff, Fastball command, and the velocity. Oh man the velocity! After averaging 92.5mph in 2014, he averaged 93.9mph in his debut, hitting near 98 at times. Hot damn! Yes, the adrenaline was most likely kicking in and affecting it like we see in major debuts from prospect pitchers, but it's an encouraging sign that Darvish is back to his old tricks again. The biggest concern I have for Darvish isn't the innings - he started late enough into the season that I doubt he'll be limited all too much this year - but rather that his walk rate will stay this low given that he has a career 3.58 BB/9. Oh and the fact that TJS aside, he's always had injury issues. But hey! This is Top 10 upside given how poorly the studs have pitched this year....
Jimmy Nelson - 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks in last start. That 4.52 FIP, 4.26 xFIP and 3.50 BB/9 turn me off more than watching reruns of The Joy Of Painting.
Nathan Eovaldi went 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks in last start, raising his K/9 to 8.49 and lowering his FIP to 3.53 It's getting to the point that I really need to consider if he's legit, and upon close inspection there are some odd things going on under the hood. For example, Eovaldi is getting 10% more grounders on his Four-Seamer without any discernable change to its movement, velocity, zone rate, etc. It's possible it's due to him placing balls better in the strikezone, though I'm leaning toward noise rather that a huge shift in batted ball profile. Then there is his Slider, which is a weird beast in itself - he's throwing it in the zone over 20 points more than 2015, and he's getting batters to chase over 50% out of the zone, though they are making contact on those poor pitches nearly 90% of the time. You'd think that would dictate a low BAA or LD rate, but it's actually right in line with previous years - .318 BAA, 26.8% LD rate. It's peculiar and maybe his improved control really is all that he needed - BB rate down from 7.3% to 5.9% - but it makes me think this is smoke-and-mirrors more than a legit stud in the making.
Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
2015-16 Strikeout rate increase: 37 percent
2016 Stats: 7-1, 2.92 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27 BB, 61 K in 64.2 IP
After starting Game 1 in both ALDS and ALCS for the Orioles in 2014, Chris Tillman endured a rocky follow-up campaign as his ERA ballooned to 4.99 in 2015. Fortunately for the club, the right-hander has reverted to being one of the game?s most underrated starters in 2016, and he?s striking out more batters than ever before.
Like Verlander, the 28-year-old has decreased his fastball usage in favor of a cutter/slider, an effective strategy for messing with opponents? scouting reports and missing bats. According to Fangraphs, batters have whiffed on over 15 percent of Tillman?s cutters.
Would you have guessed that Tillman?s been a top-five starter in the AL by wins above replacement (WAR)? He hasn?t been tagged with a loss since April 14. If Baltimore can overtake Boston in the AL East or sustain its position in the wild card race, Tillman should be in line to toe the rubber for at least one more massive October matchup.
The Royals are 4-1 vs. the AL Central this year with Volquez on the mound.
The Cardinals have won Wainwright?s last seven starts, and the righty has shown more snap to his curveball and more life on his fastball as of late. He finished seven innings his last time out, the first time he?s gone that deep all season.
Brewers vs. Phillies
Play: Under 7?
Vincent Velasquez is glad to be home where he is 3-1 with a 0.74 ERA and a WHIP of 0.781 in four starts. His numbers are ugly, but roadtrips to Chicago and Detroit will do that to a pitcher. Aaron Hill is the only Brewer to have seen the righty and he's 1-for-2 in those games. Milwaukee's lineup isn't very good as evidenced by the .223 batting average on the road before Thursday. The Phillies bullpen hasn't been terrible with just one loss and one blown save at home. Their offense has been bad hitting around .215 in their last eight games. Jimmy Nelson has allowed three runs and 15 hits in his last three outings so the righty should find some success on Friday. Last year he was touched up a bit by the Phillies, but their offense is much worse this year. These two offenses should be held down on Friday.
St. Louis (+115) over San Francisco
St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright is the type of starting pitcher that I like to bet on in baseball this time of the season. The big story behind Wainwright early on this season was how badly the 34-year-old was pitching after what had been a stellar career before this year. Wainwright made some adjustments with his delivery a few starts back and spoke about them afterwards. Wainwright dropped his arm slot, and since then he's looked much better all around with an ERA of just 3.21 while upping his strikeouts and lowering his walks as well. These changes are huge and most importantly make Wainwright undervalued right now. On the other side of things here San Francisco goes with Johnny Cueto here as it looks like Cueto is having a sensational season, but a closer look shows he's had the good fortune of facing the light-hitting San Diego Padres in 3 of his starts already this season, all of which were 9-inning outings where he allowed just 1 run combined. The Padres are on record-setting levels this year for being one of the worst offensive teams in MLB the last 35 years. If you take those Padres starts out of the numbers you see Cueto with an ERA of 3.30 this season, which would be right around his career numbers overall and making him overvalued here. Added all up and the value here is on the Cardinals in this one.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Atlanta Braves +167
Pitching in tonight's matchup is for the Braves RH Julio Teheran (1-5, 2.77 ERA) and on the hill for the Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (4-3, 3.00) Teheran has been pitching his usual consistent baseball for the Braves. As usual the Braves, one of the worse teams in baseball have not given him any run support this year and this has been the case for a long time in Teheran starts. Teheran is getting much better as the year has gone on after going 0-3 with a 4.60 ERA in April he turned that around in May with a ERA of 1.38. On the road this year Teheran has been very good with a 2.20 ERA and a WHIP of 0.767. His opponent tonight Kenta Maeda has been starting to regress of late. In his last 3 starts he has a ERA of 5.14. Maeda has really struggled at Dodger Stadium with a 4.08 ERA and a WHIP of 1.256 this year. The Dodgers are coming home from a 7 game road trip and we like that situation as well to bet against them here. The Braves are playing their best baseball of the year winning 4 out of their last 7 games. Not bad for the worse team in baseball.
New York at Baltimore
Play: Under 8
My clients and I have bet on Nathan Eovaldi in each of his last two starts, cashing a right side winner with the Yanks 6-0 win over Toronto and a wrong side winner when the Yanks beat the Rays 2-1 despite getting only one hit. Eovaldi was nothing short of outstanding in both of those outings, an emerging ace level hurler who is not yet fully respected by the betting marketplace.
Make no mistake about it. Eovaldi is now only tasked with throwing six innings thanks to the dominance of the Betances/Miller/Chapman relief trio in the seventh, eighth and ninth. Since Chapman joined the team following his early suspension, Eovaldi has gone 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA, striking out more batters (20) than hits allowed (17). Between strikeouts (8.5 K/9) and ground balls (54.3%), Eovaldi is a good fit for Camden Yards.
Each of Eovaldi?s last three starts have stayed Under the total with room to spare. He?s 6-4 to the Under this year, and it?s surely worth noting that the Yankees scored at least seven runs in all four Overs. I don?t expect that type of offensive outburst tonight, because this Yankees lineup has completely stopped hitting on the road. They?ve managed to plate only 19 runs through the first seven games of their current road trip. But that?s just the tip of the iceberg. For the full season, the Bronx Bombers are dead last in the major leagues in batting average (.223), on-base-percentage (.286) and slugging percentage (.331) on the highway, a consistent track record of offensive futility.
That?s bad news against Chris Tillman. His 7-1 record, 2.92 ERA and 3.78 FIP are all career bests. His 8.5 K/9 ratio and 10.0 swinging strike percentage are also career highs. He held the Yankees to five hits and one run in seven dominant innings against them in his lone previous start against New York this season. In seven previous home starts this year, Tillman has allowed a grand total of nine runs. And the Orioles bullpen behind him ranks #3 in baseball in ERA; a pen that is every bit as elite as the Yankees bullpen they are facing. Expect runs to be rather hard to come by here!
