07:05 PM [901] PHI PHILLIES +195 ( Z EFLIN -R/ ACTION )
07:10 PM [906] CIN REDS -120 ( ACTION /D STRAILY -R )
08:10 PM [910] MIL BREWERS +143 ( J HAMMEL -R / J NELSON -R )
08:40 PM [914] TOTAL u11-115 (ATL BRAVES vrs COL ROCKIES) ( J TEHERAN -R / J GRAY -R )
08:10 PM [921] DET TIGERS -1.5 +110 ( M FULMER -R / J TURNER -R )
08:10 PM [923] LA ANGELS +130 ( M SHOEMAKER -R / L MCCULLERS -R )
08:15 PM [926] KC ROYALS -105 ( Y DARVISH -R / D DUFFY -L )
1 unit bet pays 230 ....betdsi line
07:05 PM [904] WAS NATIONALS -1.5 -115 ( L PERDOMO -R / T ROARK -R )
07:10 PM [908] MIA MARLINS -1.5 +145 ( L VERRETT -R / A CONLEY -L )
07:05 PM [918] TOR BLUE JAYS -160 ( J PAXTON -L / M ESTRADA -R )
07:10 PM [920] BOS RED SOX -175 ( K GIBSON -R / E RODRIGUEZ -L )
1 unit bet pays 10.71 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-110, -32.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Bauer has been solid this season, and has an excellent 2.78 ERA to go along with a 5-1 record on the road
The Under is 10-1 in McCullers? last 11 home starts
The Royals are 14-6 in his past 20 in Game 1 of a series.
Detroit has won 11 of Fullmer's last 12 starts. And I read:
Fulmer owns a 7-1 record and 0.83 ERA over his last 10 starts, but the young right-hander has yet to face the White Sox, who are hitting just .217 this year against power pitchers, according to baseball-reference splits.
I'm not sure why Jacob Turner is starting for the White Sox, but I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. Turner wasn't very good at Triple-A Charlotte (4-7, 4.71 ERA, 1.439 WHIP) before Chicago brought him up and he was horrible in his 2016 debut (4 IP, 7H, 8 ER, 2 HR). Upton (.396 wOBA last 14 days) and Kinsler (.371) are the two hottest bats in the Tigers lineup and Miggy and Castellanos have been solid all season long.
Chicago vs Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +155
Cubs versus Brewers. Mismatch, right? I say the perception doesn't fit the reality in this game.
The Brewers own a winning record at home. The Cubs are 1-6 in their last seven road games and have dropped seven of their last eight away matchups to teams with a winning home mark.
Despite their below .500 overall record, the Brewers draw good home support especially when they host their hated nearby division rival.
The pitching matchup is 33-year-old Jason Hammel versus Jimmy Nelson, who is entering his prime at 27 while displaying signs of living up to being the No. 1 pitcher on the staff the Brewers envisioned the past couple of seasons.
Hammel has been less than special away from Wrigley Field with a 4-4 record and 3.81 ERA. He's lost four of his past five decisions. I consider Hammel the weak link in the Cubs' rotation.
Nelson began the season 5-3 with a 2.88 ERA. Then he hit a seven-start downturn. He's bounced back strong posting a 1.86 ERA during his last five starts. Nelson blanked the Reds in seven innings during his last start this past Saturday striking out seven while giving up six hits. He has a 2.83 lifetime ERA against the Cubs in nine appearances, including seven starts.
It's widely accepted that the Yankees have the best seventh/eighth/ninth inning relief trio with Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.
But the Brewers could have the best NL trio of late-inning relievers with Will Smith (2.00 ERA), Tyler Thornburg (2.39 ERA) and closer Jeremy Jeffress (2.23 ERA)
Arizona vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Last season saw the Reds go just 1-6 vs. Arizona, their fewest wins against this opponent in any season since '02. They've also lost five straight times to them here at Great American Ballpark. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have been pretty respectable on the road this season, going 23-20, which is actually a colossal improvement over their odious home record of 17-35. That road record has actually led to a net gain of +8.6 units, which when factoring in only road games, trails only St. Louis at the betting window. But if this sounds it's shaping up to be an endorsement of the D'backs, that's not what it's going to be. I'm actually recommending the Reds instead.
Arizona just dropped two straight at home to Toronto and was also swept in their previous road series, at San Francisco, right before the All-Star Break. This is, by any objective measure, not a very good baseball team (yes, I know the Reds aren't either). Also, while it may be true that the D'backs are a better team on the road, the Reds just so happen to be significantly better at home. They're 22-27 here at Great American Ballpark, which is obviously much better than a terrible 14-32 road mark.
But I think the key to this recommendation is that Cincy will have Dan Strailey on the bump. Straily has tossed three consecutive quality starts while posting 2.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Last time out, he delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. Milwaukee and the result was a 1-0 win for the team. Opponents are hitting just .212 against Straily, the 10th lowest average in the National League. The Reds were kind to me Wednesday afternoon when they beat Atlanta and in my analysis for that game (check L10 results) I referenced the improvement that's taken place in their bullpen this month. That's key as well. Arizona starter Archie Bradley has 1.530 WHIP in six road starts.
Kansas City Royals -105
The Kansas City Royals are consistently undervalued at home. They have gone 30-15 at home this season compared to just 17-32 on the road. Now they are undervalued here again at nearly even money against the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of this series Friday.
Not to mention, Danny Duffy is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. The left-hander is 5-1 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 80 K's in 70 innings. He will be up against a depleted Texas lineup that is missing Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo right now.
Yu Darvish is suffering through another injury-plagued season himself. He has only made four starters this season with a 3.15 ERA and 1.200 WHIP. He is only averaging 5.0 innings per start as the Rangers have kept him on a pitch limit. The Royals are likely to get into the Rangers' bullpen early in this one as a result. That's a good thing because Texas' bullpen sports a 5.02 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 308 2/3 innings this season.
Duffy is 24-8 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last three seasons. Kansas City is 25-9 in Duffy's last 34 home starts. The Royals are 40-17 in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 1-7 in their last eight games overall. Texas is 0-4 in Darvish's last four road starts.
Angels at Astros
Play: Under 8
With just 4 starts above High-A, Houston right-hander Lance McCullers posted a 3.22 ERA, 3.26 FIP & 3.57 SIERA in 125.2 Major League innings last season (24.8% K%). The 22-year-old has continued that success in 2016, posting a 3.61 ERA, 2.83 FIP & 3.38 xFIP in his first 11 starts (11.55 K/9; 0.29 HR/9; 55.4% GB%).
Matt Shoemaker is enjoying a breakout campaign following a dreadful April in which he was demoted to the Minors. The right-hander has posted a 2.85 ERA in 85 1/3 innings since being recalled, registering double-digit strikeouts in four of those outings. Shoemaker's decision to throw his splitter nearly half the time has resulted in a dramatic improvement in exit velocity suppression. Shoemaker's 3.35 FIP, 3.53 xFIP and 3.35 SIERA reflect his true talent level, as do his 9.34 K/9 and 1.87 BB/9 rates.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series and 4-1 in McCuller's last five starts against the Angels. The UNDER is also 25-11 in Houston's last 36 games, including 9-3 in Houston's last 12 home games, 10-1 in McCuller's last 11 home starts and 8-0 in McCuller's last 8 starts against division foes.
Hottest pitcher: Danny Duffy, Royals (5-1, 3.27 ERA)
Kansas City returns home after visiting the White House to celebrate its 2015 World Series championship. Duffy has been the only consistent pitcher for the Royals, as the southpaw is 3-0 in his last four trips to the mound, including recent wins over the Tigers and Cardinals. In his last four starts, Duffy has walked only two batters, while striking out 30 in 29.1 innings of work. Kansas City hosts Texas as the Royals try to rebound from a pair of losses to the Indians. Duffy faces a Rangers? squad that has lost six of their past seven games, while Texas owns a dreadful 3-11 record in its previous 14 road contests.
Coldest pitcher: Kyle Gibson, Twins (2-6, 5.12 ERA)
It?s been a rough season for the Minnesota rotation, as Gibson has allowed four earned runs in each of his past three outings. Gibson is coming off a 6-1 home defeat to the Indians in which Cleveland tagged him for 10 hits in six innings of work. The Twins? right-hander has given up at least four earned runs in six of his last eight starts, including allowing five earned runs in 5.2 innings in a 15-4 loss to Boston on June 11. The Twins and Red Sox continue their four-game series at Fenway Park on Friday.
CHICAGO +149 over Detroit
Michael Fulmer or not, the Tigers cannot be priced in this range on the road. Fulmer is on his way to a possible Rookie-of-the-Year season (2.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP in 85 IP) but before you ride him blindly in the second half, note that his skills have been more good than great. Fulmer has been aided by a 26% hit rate and 85% strand rate. He also throws a higher volume of balls than you'd like to see (37% ball %) and doesn't get strike one at a high rate either (59%). We also saw him struggle miserably in a start v Seattle but the pitching line does not reflect that. Fulmer has never pitched a full season. He has averaged just under 80 innings per year over his career, spanning four + seasons in the minors and one half season in the majors. Fulmer?s tank might be running low. Furthermore, Detroit has fewer wins than any team in MLB against top-10 teams (7-22) and they?re extremely weak against Top-15 teams too (15-28). Now the Tigers are a huge price on the road.
Jacob Turner has one start this year and it wasn?t a pretty one but one can never put a lot of weight on one lousy start. Apparently, that?s precisely what the market is doing in fading Turner but here?s what we know for sure. Turner is not some random call-up to fill a need for innings. He has pedigree. He also has a fresh start with the South Side after the Cubbies and Marlins gave up on him. He?s always had elite skills versus righties (8.0 K?s/9 1.7 BB?s/9, 50% grounders). He has a career 16% swing and miss rate on his cutter and a 14% swing and miss rate on his changeup. In his first start against the Angels, a team that has struck out the fewest times in the majors, Turner had a 14% swing and miss rate. He brings 94.2 MPH heat with life and at age 25, don't be surprised if Turner takes a Porcello-like leap in the second half.
Biggest UNDER run: Mets (9-0 last nine)
New York is one of two teams that is riding a nine-game UNDER streak along with Baltimore, but we?ll focus on the Mets here. In its three-game series at Wrigley Field, the Mets scored a total of five runs, while plating two runs or fewer seven times during this nine-game UNDER stretch. Since late June, New York has posted an incredible 11-2 run to the UNDER away from Citi Field, but the Mets are 2-1 to the OVER in three games at Miami this season. New York travels to Miami to start a three-game series as Logan Verrett gets the start on Friday. Verrett has finished UNDER the total in each of his past three starts, while the Mets have scored (Surprise!) two runs or less in each of those outings.
Philadelphia @ PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia +200 over PITTSBURGH
If the Pirates win here, good for them but of all the teams in MLB that are above .500, Pittsburgh is the very last one that you want to spot a price like this with. Over the past 30 games, Pittsburgh is batting .243. That ranks them 27th in the league, ahead of only Milwaukee, Atlanta and Oakland. They have a recent loss to Chase Anderson and they have also lost to a slew of other #4 and #5 starters in the majors this year. The Pirates are now just three games above .500 and they?re being asked to spot a huge price with Gerrit Cole going.
Cole returned from the DL last Saturday and went only four innings against the Cardinals. Cole?s K-rate and swing and miss rate have both fallen to worse than league average this season for the first time in his career. Cole is still bringing 94 MPH heat but his pitches lack life. His swing and miss rate against St. Louis was only 5% and his batted ball profile on the year (38%/30%32% - GB/LD/FB) isn?t very impressive either. Cole has a 3.11/4.11 ERA/xERA split. Truth is, Gerrit Cole is not having a great year and neither are the Pirates. Don?t get us wrong. Cole does have the ability to dominate and it may be just a matter of time before he gets back into his potential Cy Young form. For now, however, he pitches for a team that can lose anytime to anyone and these Phillies have been resilient all season long.
Prior to his call-up, Zach Eflin put together a sterling Triple-A campaign for the Phillies? organization by posting a 2.90 ERA with a 20.9 percent strikeout rate and a minuscule 4.2 percent walk rate. He thrives by pounding the strike zone with his fastball/changeup combination but it?s not a repertoire that?s going to result in gaudy strikeout numbers. Eflin was seen as an extremely projectable right-hander as a prep and while he has filled out his frame some, the plus-plus fastball never came. What he does have is an above-average offering that will touch the mid 90?s; sitting 90-93 mph with excellent sink. His best off-speed pitch is his change?a pitch that he can locate for strikes and has excellent deception with tumble that leads to lots of weak contact. He throws both a slider and a curveball, and while neither pitch flashes much more than average, the pitches don?t run into each other, and that gives him four useable offerings. It?s not a dominant arsenal, but it works and the reason it works is because Eflin flat out throws strikes. He repeats his delivery as well as you can for a 22-year-old, and he gets ahead of hitters to make that stuff play up. He also can ?pitch backwards? and can locate any of his pitches on any part of the plate for strike one. He has five quality starts in seven tries and that includes success at both Colorado and Arizona, two minefields. He has a great chance for another strong outing here and is absolutely worth a look.
Biggest OVER run: Indians (8-2-2 last 12)
The Indians head to Baltimore for a battle of division leaders as one of these total streaks has to end. Baltimore?s offense has struggled lately, resulting in a 9-0 mark to the UNDER the last nine games. Cleveland is coming off three consecutive OVERS at Kansas City, including putting up 18 runs in the final two victories. Trevor Bauer tries to bounce back against Baltimore after picking up a no-decision in a 6-4 defeat to the Orioles in late May as he heads to the hill. In Bauer?s seven road starts, the Indians are 4-1-2 to the UNDER, while Cleveland has cashed the OVER only once in his past seven starts overall.
07:10 PM [906] CIN REDS -120 ( ACTION /D STRAILY -R )
08:10 PM [910] MIL BREWERS +143 ( J HAMMEL -R / J NELSON -R )
08:40 PM [914] TOTAL u11-115 (ATL BRAVES vrs COL ROCKIES) ( J TEHERAN -R / J GRAY -R )
08:10 PM [921] DET TIGERS -1.5 +110 ( M FULMER -R / J TURNER -R )
08:10 PM [923] LA ANGELS +130 ( M SHOEMAKER -R / L MCCULLERS -R )
08:15 PM [926] KC ROYALS -105 ( Y DARVISH -R / D DUFFY -L )
1 unit bet pays 230 ....betdsi line
07:05 PM [904] WAS NATIONALS -1.5 -115 ( L PERDOMO -R / T ROARK -R )
07:10 PM [908] MIA MARLINS -1.5 +145 ( L VERRETT -R / A CONLEY -L )
07:05 PM [918] TOR BLUE JAYS -160 ( J PAXTON -L / M ESTRADA -R )
07:10 PM [920] BOS RED SOX -175 ( K GIBSON -R / E RODRIGUEZ -L )
1 unit bet pays 10.71 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-110, -32.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Bauer has been solid this season, and has an excellent 2.78 ERA to go along with a 5-1 record on the road
The Under is 10-1 in McCullers? last 11 home starts
The Royals are 14-6 in his past 20 in Game 1 of a series.
Detroit has won 11 of Fullmer's last 12 starts. And I read:
Fulmer owns a 7-1 record and 0.83 ERA over his last 10 starts, but the young right-hander has yet to face the White Sox, who are hitting just .217 this year against power pitchers, according to baseball-reference splits.
I'm not sure why Jacob Turner is starting for the White Sox, but I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. Turner wasn't very good at Triple-A Charlotte (4-7, 4.71 ERA, 1.439 WHIP) before Chicago brought him up and he was horrible in his 2016 debut (4 IP, 7H, 8 ER, 2 HR). Upton (.396 wOBA last 14 days) and Kinsler (.371) are the two hottest bats in the Tigers lineup and Miggy and Castellanos have been solid all season long.
Chicago vs Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +155
Cubs versus Brewers. Mismatch, right? I say the perception doesn't fit the reality in this game.
The Brewers own a winning record at home. The Cubs are 1-6 in their last seven road games and have dropped seven of their last eight away matchups to teams with a winning home mark.
Despite their below .500 overall record, the Brewers draw good home support especially when they host their hated nearby division rival.
The pitching matchup is 33-year-old Jason Hammel versus Jimmy Nelson, who is entering his prime at 27 while displaying signs of living up to being the No. 1 pitcher on the staff the Brewers envisioned the past couple of seasons.
Hammel has been less than special away from Wrigley Field with a 4-4 record and 3.81 ERA. He's lost four of his past five decisions. I consider Hammel the weak link in the Cubs' rotation.
Nelson began the season 5-3 with a 2.88 ERA. Then he hit a seven-start downturn. He's bounced back strong posting a 1.86 ERA during his last five starts. Nelson blanked the Reds in seven innings during his last start this past Saturday striking out seven while giving up six hits. He has a 2.83 lifetime ERA against the Cubs in nine appearances, including seven starts.
It's widely accepted that the Yankees have the best seventh/eighth/ninth inning relief trio with Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.
But the Brewers could have the best NL trio of late-inning relievers with Will Smith (2.00 ERA), Tyler Thornburg (2.39 ERA) and closer Jeremy Jeffress (2.23 ERA)
Arizona vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Last season saw the Reds go just 1-6 vs. Arizona, their fewest wins against this opponent in any season since '02. They've also lost five straight times to them here at Great American Ballpark. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have been pretty respectable on the road this season, going 23-20, which is actually a colossal improvement over their odious home record of 17-35. That road record has actually led to a net gain of +8.6 units, which when factoring in only road games, trails only St. Louis at the betting window. But if this sounds it's shaping up to be an endorsement of the D'backs, that's not what it's going to be. I'm actually recommending the Reds instead.
Arizona just dropped two straight at home to Toronto and was also swept in their previous road series, at San Francisco, right before the All-Star Break. This is, by any objective measure, not a very good baseball team (yes, I know the Reds aren't either). Also, while it may be true that the D'backs are a better team on the road, the Reds just so happen to be significantly better at home. They're 22-27 here at Great American Ballpark, which is obviously much better than a terrible 14-32 road mark.
But I think the key to this recommendation is that Cincy will have Dan Strailey on the bump. Straily has tossed three consecutive quality starts while posting 2.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Last time out, he delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. Milwaukee and the result was a 1-0 win for the team. Opponents are hitting just .212 against Straily, the 10th lowest average in the National League. The Reds were kind to me Wednesday afternoon when they beat Atlanta and in my analysis for that game (check L10 results) I referenced the improvement that's taken place in their bullpen this month. That's key as well. Arizona starter Archie Bradley has 1.530 WHIP in six road starts.
Kansas City Royals -105
The Kansas City Royals are consistently undervalued at home. They have gone 30-15 at home this season compared to just 17-32 on the road. Now they are undervalued here again at nearly even money against the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of this series Friday.
Not to mention, Danny Duffy is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. The left-hander is 5-1 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 80 K's in 70 innings. He will be up against a depleted Texas lineup that is missing Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo right now.
Yu Darvish is suffering through another injury-plagued season himself. He has only made four starters this season with a 3.15 ERA and 1.200 WHIP. He is only averaging 5.0 innings per start as the Rangers have kept him on a pitch limit. The Royals are likely to get into the Rangers' bullpen early in this one as a result. That's a good thing because Texas' bullpen sports a 5.02 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 308 2/3 innings this season.
Duffy is 24-8 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last three seasons. Kansas City is 25-9 in Duffy's last 34 home starts. The Royals are 40-17 in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 1-7 in their last eight games overall. Texas is 0-4 in Darvish's last four road starts.
Angels at Astros
Play: Under 8
With just 4 starts above High-A, Houston right-hander Lance McCullers posted a 3.22 ERA, 3.26 FIP & 3.57 SIERA in 125.2 Major League innings last season (24.8% K%). The 22-year-old has continued that success in 2016, posting a 3.61 ERA, 2.83 FIP & 3.38 xFIP in his first 11 starts (11.55 K/9; 0.29 HR/9; 55.4% GB%).
Matt Shoemaker is enjoying a breakout campaign following a dreadful April in which he was demoted to the Minors. The right-hander has posted a 2.85 ERA in 85 1/3 innings since being recalled, registering double-digit strikeouts in four of those outings. Shoemaker's decision to throw his splitter nearly half the time has resulted in a dramatic improvement in exit velocity suppression. Shoemaker's 3.35 FIP, 3.53 xFIP and 3.35 SIERA reflect his true talent level, as do his 9.34 K/9 and 1.87 BB/9 rates.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series and 4-1 in McCuller's last five starts against the Angels. The UNDER is also 25-11 in Houston's last 36 games, including 9-3 in Houston's last 12 home games, 10-1 in McCuller's last 11 home starts and 8-0 in McCuller's last 8 starts against division foes.
Hottest pitcher: Danny Duffy, Royals (5-1, 3.27 ERA)
Kansas City returns home after visiting the White House to celebrate its 2015 World Series championship. Duffy has been the only consistent pitcher for the Royals, as the southpaw is 3-0 in his last four trips to the mound, including recent wins over the Tigers and Cardinals. In his last four starts, Duffy has walked only two batters, while striking out 30 in 29.1 innings of work. Kansas City hosts Texas as the Royals try to rebound from a pair of losses to the Indians. Duffy faces a Rangers? squad that has lost six of their past seven games, while Texas owns a dreadful 3-11 record in its previous 14 road contests.
Coldest pitcher: Kyle Gibson, Twins (2-6, 5.12 ERA)
It?s been a rough season for the Minnesota rotation, as Gibson has allowed four earned runs in each of his past three outings. Gibson is coming off a 6-1 home defeat to the Indians in which Cleveland tagged him for 10 hits in six innings of work. The Twins? right-hander has given up at least four earned runs in six of his last eight starts, including allowing five earned runs in 5.2 innings in a 15-4 loss to Boston on June 11. The Twins and Red Sox continue their four-game series at Fenway Park on Friday.
CHICAGO +149 over Detroit
Michael Fulmer or not, the Tigers cannot be priced in this range on the road. Fulmer is on his way to a possible Rookie-of-the-Year season (2.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP in 85 IP) but before you ride him blindly in the second half, note that his skills have been more good than great. Fulmer has been aided by a 26% hit rate and 85% strand rate. He also throws a higher volume of balls than you'd like to see (37% ball %) and doesn't get strike one at a high rate either (59%). We also saw him struggle miserably in a start v Seattle but the pitching line does not reflect that. Fulmer has never pitched a full season. He has averaged just under 80 innings per year over his career, spanning four + seasons in the minors and one half season in the majors. Fulmer?s tank might be running low. Furthermore, Detroit has fewer wins than any team in MLB against top-10 teams (7-22) and they?re extremely weak against Top-15 teams too (15-28). Now the Tigers are a huge price on the road.
Jacob Turner has one start this year and it wasn?t a pretty one but one can never put a lot of weight on one lousy start. Apparently, that?s precisely what the market is doing in fading Turner but here?s what we know for sure. Turner is not some random call-up to fill a need for innings. He has pedigree. He also has a fresh start with the South Side after the Cubbies and Marlins gave up on him. He?s always had elite skills versus righties (8.0 K?s/9 1.7 BB?s/9, 50% grounders). He has a career 16% swing and miss rate on his cutter and a 14% swing and miss rate on his changeup. In his first start against the Angels, a team that has struck out the fewest times in the majors, Turner had a 14% swing and miss rate. He brings 94.2 MPH heat with life and at age 25, don't be surprised if Turner takes a Porcello-like leap in the second half.
Biggest UNDER run: Mets (9-0 last nine)
New York is one of two teams that is riding a nine-game UNDER streak along with Baltimore, but we?ll focus on the Mets here. In its three-game series at Wrigley Field, the Mets scored a total of five runs, while plating two runs or fewer seven times during this nine-game UNDER stretch. Since late June, New York has posted an incredible 11-2 run to the UNDER away from Citi Field, but the Mets are 2-1 to the OVER in three games at Miami this season. New York travels to Miami to start a three-game series as Logan Verrett gets the start on Friday. Verrett has finished UNDER the total in each of his past three starts, while the Mets have scored (Surprise!) two runs or less in each of those outings.
Philadelphia @ PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia +200 over PITTSBURGH
If the Pirates win here, good for them but of all the teams in MLB that are above .500, Pittsburgh is the very last one that you want to spot a price like this with. Over the past 30 games, Pittsburgh is batting .243. That ranks them 27th in the league, ahead of only Milwaukee, Atlanta and Oakland. They have a recent loss to Chase Anderson and they have also lost to a slew of other #4 and #5 starters in the majors this year. The Pirates are now just three games above .500 and they?re being asked to spot a huge price with Gerrit Cole going.
Cole returned from the DL last Saturday and went only four innings against the Cardinals. Cole?s K-rate and swing and miss rate have both fallen to worse than league average this season for the first time in his career. Cole is still bringing 94 MPH heat but his pitches lack life. His swing and miss rate against St. Louis was only 5% and his batted ball profile on the year (38%/30%32% - GB/LD/FB) isn?t very impressive either. Cole has a 3.11/4.11 ERA/xERA split. Truth is, Gerrit Cole is not having a great year and neither are the Pirates. Don?t get us wrong. Cole does have the ability to dominate and it may be just a matter of time before he gets back into his potential Cy Young form. For now, however, he pitches for a team that can lose anytime to anyone and these Phillies have been resilient all season long.
Prior to his call-up, Zach Eflin put together a sterling Triple-A campaign for the Phillies? organization by posting a 2.90 ERA with a 20.9 percent strikeout rate and a minuscule 4.2 percent walk rate. He thrives by pounding the strike zone with his fastball/changeup combination but it?s not a repertoire that?s going to result in gaudy strikeout numbers. Eflin was seen as an extremely projectable right-hander as a prep and while he has filled out his frame some, the plus-plus fastball never came. What he does have is an above-average offering that will touch the mid 90?s; sitting 90-93 mph with excellent sink. His best off-speed pitch is his change?a pitch that he can locate for strikes and has excellent deception with tumble that leads to lots of weak contact. He throws both a slider and a curveball, and while neither pitch flashes much more than average, the pitches don?t run into each other, and that gives him four useable offerings. It?s not a dominant arsenal, but it works and the reason it works is because Eflin flat out throws strikes. He repeats his delivery as well as you can for a 22-year-old, and he gets ahead of hitters to make that stuff play up. He also can ?pitch backwards? and can locate any of his pitches on any part of the plate for strike one. He has five quality starts in seven tries and that includes success at both Colorado and Arizona, two minefields. He has a great chance for another strong outing here and is absolutely worth a look.
Biggest OVER run: Indians (8-2-2 last 12)
The Indians head to Baltimore for a battle of division leaders as one of these total streaks has to end. Baltimore?s offense has struggled lately, resulting in a 9-0 mark to the UNDER the last nine games. Cleveland is coming off three consecutive OVERS at Kansas City, including putting up 18 runs in the final two victories. Trevor Bauer tries to bounce back against Baltimore after picking up a no-decision in a 6-4 defeat to the Orioles in late May as he heads to the hill. In Bauer?s seven road starts, the Indians are 4-1-2 to the UNDER, while Cleveland has cashed the OVER only once in his past seven starts overall.
