FRIDAY'S STARTERS

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm still lobbying for someone to take over a
"XDAYS BULLPENS" thread.
I get the occasional positive comment in this thread, but for the most part I'm not sure if too many are making use of this stuff. Sure, the info is out there if you've got the time and patience to go digging, but I think I'm including several key numbers that we should be looking at as far as starters go (if you disagree, then SPEAK! Don't be shy...I'm feeling freakin' neglected here!). I'm careful to check for accuracy, and the 3RATE is just based on a formula that simplifies each pitcher's recent starts.
The bullpen's I'll just have to keep on top of myself, I guess, but I can't control all these 9th inning errors and poor pitching match-ups by the managers.
Shit, man...if ballgames were only 8 innings (even just for June) then I'd be looking at early retirment!
Oh...the radio just reminded me that Nevin's Slam was in the 8th...I feel better now.

Time to get a grip.

As usual...
DR=days rest
NP=number of pitches
RC=record as starter
TRC=team's record as starter
WHIP=(walks + hits) / innings pitched
ERA=eagerly requesting associates
3RATE=rating of pitcher's last 3 starts weighted towards more recent ones...
...min=6, max=30
Teams with the higher 3RATE went 5-3 on Thursday. Teams with 3RATE differential of 5 or more went 2-2 on Thursday, with the bullpen forking the A's, and inevitability forking Valdes -- the Giants bats are right up there with the D'Bats for the "should we show up today" award.

Stats are from Yahoo save for opponents batting and slugging averages (LH, RH, and SLG) which are provided if over .280, under .220 (LH & RH's) and over .500, under .400 (SLG's) and are from Baseball Weekly.
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NAME...DR...NP...RC/TRC...WHIP...ERA...3RATE
Villone....6*....12.....0-1/1-3......1.82....6.62.....N/A
Reitsma...4....99.....3-5/5-8......1.33....4.03.....16.5
...Villone RH .320
...Reitsma LH .295
...*Villone last 13 appearances all in relief; 1st 4 appearances were starts
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Romero...4.....98....1-2/4-5.....1.33......5.21....10
Tavarez...5....109...3-4/6-6.....1.36.....3.47.....16
...Romero LH .290
...Tavarez LH .310, SLG .355
...have the real Minnesota Twins finally stood up? My guess is that they can wave bye-bye to the Cleveland Indians, and eventually see-ya to any wild-card hopes (sorry, Twins backers)
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Carpenter..5...112....5-4/8-5....1.38....3.79....15
Vasquez....4...116....5-7/6-8....1.23....4.47....17.5
...Carpenter LH .287
...Vasquez LH .212. RH .282, SLG .386
...pretty scary, but this is the best pitching match-up we're going to get in this series
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Roberts....5....101....4-5/4-6....1.43....4.70....15
Daal.........5.....86.....7-1/11-2...1.19...3.65....17
...Roberts SLG .379
...the real Phillies may be starting to show their heads as well, but Daal is real tough to beat this season and the O's are only 5-10 vs lefties (though 4-3 in last 5)
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Burba.......5....114....8-2/10-3....1.63...5.68....14
Anderson..5....108....3-6/6-7.....1.51...4.39.....12
...Burba LH .377 (you heard right)
...Anderson RH .287, SLG .389
...Indians should be able to get away with crappy pitching performances...until the playoffs, at least (again)
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Sturtze.....5....116.....3-3/4-3.....1.47...5.10....17
Burnett.....5....110.....4-2/5-2.....1.08...1.59...27
...Sturtze LH .290
...Burnett LH .198, RH .155, SLG .246 (9 doubles and 1 HR in 51 IP)
...Burnett is no fluke, and TBay, as hot as they are, will not blow him away; the only way Florida loses this one is by no scoring (wait a sec...oh, yeah..BULLPEN...BULLPEN...that's going to have to be my new mantra)
The total of 8.5 is a bitch, but this one isn't being played in the friendly confines of Tampa
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Pettitte....6.....76......7-4/7-6.....1.21...2.90.....19
Leiter......5.....103....3-4/4-5.....1.16....3.71....17
...Pettitte SLG .363
...Leiter LH .219
...Pettitte left last with strained groin but should start this one
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Nomo.....4.....91......6-3/10-3....1.13...3.69....18
Maddux...4....95.....6-5/8-5......1.04....2.25....21.5
...Nomo LH .153, RH .218, SLG .336
...Maddux RH .220, SLG .335
...Maddux has been getting zilcho run support this season...I know the club expects to win every time he starts but that is no excuse to take it easy at the plate -- c'mon Braves, this guy still has a chance to be re-Cy'ed
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Stein......5....125.....3-4/4-4.....1.64....5.47.....17
Wright....4....97.......5-4/6-5.....1.49....4.43....N/A
...Stein RH .208
...Wright LH .179, RH .291
...Wright one start since coming off DL @Det: 5 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 3 R (2 ER), 4 BB, 2 K, W8-3
...I'm not much of a believer in either of these starters...even less in Stein (at least the Brewers were dominating at home)
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Helling...5....117....4-7/4-10....1.73...5.80.....15.5
Miller.....4....118.....7-3/10-3....1.23...3.81......14
...Helling LH .326, RH .322, SLG .549
...Miller LH .210
...I've made a killing off Miller so far this season, but now that the public's caught on (re: -160), and his arm is being overused, I'm not sure what to do with the guy especially with super-closer Wagner on the DL (I like the 'Stros here, but -160?!?...does this include tickets to the game?)
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Garland.....4*....33.....2-2/2-2....1.63...5.13.....N/A
An.Benes...5....90.....5-4/8-4.....1.61...6.14....17.5
...Garland LH .304, RH .288, SLG .543
...Benes LH .293, RH .286, SLG .517
...*Garland last 3 in relief; last start vs T.O. ok, but previous 3 included 2 stinkers and one mediocre
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Park......5.....116.....7-4/8-6....1.12...2.75......20
Ortiz......5......109....4-4/5-7....1.40...4.00.......21
...Park LH .192, RH .210, SLG .323
...very tempting under (oh yeah, my mantra...BULLPEN...BULLPEN...); still, these clubs both have decent game-blowers, er, I mean bullpens
--------------------
I can't get confirmation if Detroit@Arizona is Holt@Reynoso or what's happening -- Holt has an LH of .320, but who knows if the D'Bats show up
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Garcia...5.....99......6-1/10-3....1.30...4.18.....12
Jones....5.....100.....3-8/4-9.....1.21...3.16.....14.5
...Garcia RH .213, SLG .365
...what's wrong with this picture, re: Jones W-L compared to his other numbers -- evidence that the Padres suck, you say?
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Lidle......5.....85.......1-4/3-8.....1.26....4.66.....19
Estes.....5....110......5-2/8-3.....1.08....2.52.....23
...Lidle LH .209, RH .290
...Estes LH .171, RH .213, SLG .341
...Estes looking like the most likely winner on Friday, for all games (Burnett looks good, too, but TBay is...er...hot?!?!) -180 is raunchy, but I see that righties have been hitting Lidle; lefty Bonds is a threat against anyone, and chances are good that the Giants bats can carry over yesterday's success against Valdes & company; as for Estes, good luck hitting him; no!!!!PLEASE NO BUULLLLPPPPENNNNN!!!!!...
...AAARRRRGGGGHHHHH!!!!

Just practicing...just in case.
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[This message has been edited by EXTRAPOLATER (edited 06-15-2001).]

 

[Never Caught Up]

A great example of how middle relief can really f*** things up would be the Houston / Minnesota game last night. I had both Min and Under as I am sure others did. First four innings are scoreless. In the fifth and sixthe innings Houston scores a total of four and Minny 3. I figure that maybe I split if Minny scores and regains the lead or if it just stays where it is.

No, a middle reliever (I think it was Hector Carrasco) comes in in the top of the seventh and immediately loads the bases and then gives up a grand slam. Just like that nearlly all hope went down the tubes.

It is hard to handicap middle relief because it has to be done by class instead of individual. I guess that is where sheer fickle fate (see different post) takes over.

Thanks for the info.

NCU

 

[wigs]

thanks for the info, looks like somewhat of a tough card with some high priced faves...good luck

 

[Allnet]

I , for one, appreciate all this info everday, and just want to say thanks.

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"A group is better than any individual"

 

[Antonio]

I second that, this info has proven very valuable in my capping, its just that this interleague is very unpredictable. i have a question sir, i thought Sturtze, would have a better rating being on the road and all, he's been remarkable on the road for pretty much the last 3 yrs. Not gonna take a side in this as i cant see myself laying 200 on the Marlins, even though im a chalk player, but the under looks enticing even at 8',In Fl, pitchers hitting , we'll have to check later on the ump and other factors, but leaning toward the under...Tony

[This message has been edited by Antonio (edited 06-15-2001).]

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Holy sheeite cookie bomb.
I just came back to update the Det@Az game and I see a load of responses here.

Ask and ye shall receive.
Thanks for the response.

As for the Arizona starter, apparently Reynoso has gone on the 15-day DL. This is according to Sportsnetwork.com, which has made numerous mistakes throughout the season, but I assume is correct on this one.

Sturtze's success on the road is based on too small a sample, for my liking, and was not strong enough to note. If you meant for the 3RATE, this is based on the last 3 starts regardless of where they were (though sometimes taking that into account, if that makes sense). Another reason for caution on any Sturtze play is the quality of his opponent, Burnett, who will overpower if his control is on. Sturtze has thrown the ball decent, but I don't think that he's any major breakthrough, like a Josh Towers, for example.

Umps is another factor I would like to be up on, as I'm often looking for the possibility of the under. Maybe it was the umpire factor that I.E. was basing his over play on Wood/Schilling a couple of days ago. I didn't get to watch -- just tracked it on Yahoo -- but it was clear that Wood wasn't getting the calls, rightly or wrongly.

Yeah, some really juicy home faves, today. I'm going to have to pick and choose carefully, maybe a couple of moneyliners. My runline play on 'Zona got burnt in the 9th inning thanks to a Womack bloop and a Mathews homer. That kinda hurt. It really sucks when you have to hope for a bottom of the 9th and a 2-run shot to cover it. Still, I can't lay that kinda -250 juice. The way I see it, if I like a play that strong, then I like it by 2 at the -130.

What can you do...Kudos to the O's bullpen for doing the unthinkable, by not blowing one.

Onward to Victory!

 

[DBLMUTZ]

I'll 3rd that,Thank you

 

[a lurker]

heyyyy i like to read this place everyday and try to help my husband with his picks and i always check ur post in fact i registered just now to tell you that so you don't stop k?!?

excuse me i mean SOON to be hubbie

thanks for all the work EXTRAPOLATER

a lurking gurlie

[This message has been edited by a lurker (edited 06-15-2001).]

 

[Mrvalue]

I guess your finding out that people depend on you EXTRAPOLATER.
I come here early every morning to jot down your ERA and WHIP stats. Your the first to have the WHIP stats up of any site i know of. I then have to wait a few hours before going to COVERS to get the Bullpin AVAILABILY stats. It is the ONLY site that has it as far as i know and i treat them just as importantly as the starting pitcher stats (almost).
As far as ump stats go i've found them useless. With only one or two exceptions last years over umps are this years under umps and vise versa. It is a waste of time. A better stat for o/u is the MOB. Add togeather both starting pitchers MOB and it adds up to more than 30 look twords the over,less than 20 look for an under.
Todays MOB plays are CLEV/PITT = 33.5 OVER AND OAK/SF = 15.8 UNDER.
Keep it going EXTRAPOLATER.

 

[Kimmick]

Hey Ex,

I read your stuff every day.

Gotta believe a lotta folks do.

3Rate stuff especially.

Thanks again....

Pat

 

[redlips]

Not only I rely on your good work everyday, but I also like your sense of humor.. I'm still on the reminder of the christmas card to Olmedo.. Ill even send the stamp...

and if you dont mind.. a redkiss....

 

[bohawk]

Really good work EXPTRAPOLATER. Great comments after your facts too. Thanks.Mrvalue ,MOB idea is interesting too. Happens to be RAYMOND& Nolan`s selections today also.

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"Quick Watson,the Game`s afoot!" bohawk

 

[cash]

your contributions are invaluable...anytime
you feel neglected...reach out

...gl

btw; what's the url for baseball weekly ?

[This message has been edited by cash (edited 06-15-2001).]

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks all...

The url for Baseball Weekly is

www.baseballweekly.com

I use the newspaper format because the site doesn't appear to be as useful, plus it is easier to flip through.

The MOB idea looks interesting. I'm not sure how closely correlated the MOB would be to the WHIP, but I'm going to try and find out over the next pass through the rotations.
I'll also check out covers for their bullpen info. Thanks for the tip.

Woke up to find that the Cubs won.
It's a start.
Good X to all tonight!