NFL YTD: 36-35 (-2.76*)
Seattle(+1' & +105ML) over Minnesota (1.25*)
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/football/149924_locke26.html (the Minneapolis Star Tribune link for Viking coverage requires a password - just think groping for new buttons to push)
You figure out whether Holmgren or Tice has a team that is playing December football and is motivated off the charts in this one. A Hint: A look ahead to St. Louis or a flat spot after last week are not good capping angles in this one.
Philadelphia(-5') over Dallas (1.25*)
I seem to recall that the Cowboys of Dallas have some gaudy numbers in games played the week after Thanksgiving. Carolina had Philadelphia in a good spot with good matchups last week, including an opponent that might have been peeking ahead to Dallas, and even though I stayed off that game, I was kind of hoping Carolina would get the win to set up this situation and the line value . . . Be that as it may, the last time Philadelphia hosted a game with a championship (NFC) game atmosphere, the Eagles were stunned by a superb team on a devastating roll. For all intents and purposes, here comes another championship (division w/ home field implications) game, and an inferior Cowboy team is not likely to uncork what it takes to waltz in and take Philadelphia to the final gun with a chance to twist the dagger that's still buried close to the stout heart of a veteran Eagle's squad. Looks that Kill.
Baltimore(-3') over Cincinnati (1.25*)
Dick Vermeil commenting on the Cincinnati guarantee gets my vote so far for the quote of the year in the NFL: "Hey, maybe they can back it up. They're playing awfully well . . . They've done a good job. It's time for them to do a good job. They've been drafting No. 1 with poor winning records for a long time. Sooner or later, those guys ought to stand up and play." . . . Winning three straight games on the road may well be the rarest feat in the NFL this side of a Super Bowl championship; trends involving the Bungles of recent years are being laid to waste on a weekly basis (and I've been with the feel good guys more or less throughout November, for a nice little chunk of change), but I don't think the Bengals magic transcends this hurdle. It took every last ounce of resolve to keep things going last week and scalp those bullies from Pittsburgh, and it's worth noting that finishing any such streak will have been preceded by the effort that went into derailing an undefeated Chiefs squad. The bad boys in Baltimore are in the right spot at the right time to reinforce all those adages about what a tough league this is.
PARLAY Seattle(+1') w/ Philadelphia(-5') w/ Baltimore(+3') for 0.25* @ 7/1
Will add a couple more 1* plays.
GL
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Don't believe everything you think.
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Worth Noting: Goldsheet Synopsis of Technical Trends:
There's a lot of scufflin' going on in the NFL this season. From a technical handicapping perspective, that is.
Indeed, as we enter the final month of the pro football campaign, there haven't been many wide-sweeping trends that have sustained themselves throughout 2003, or angles that have delivered significant winning results over any extended period of measurement. It's worth noting, however, that the home team underdogs, a profitable pointspread proposition in many years, have started to stir lately, posting a 16-5-1 spread mark the last five weeks. The road chalk was dominant the first half of the campaign (21-7 thru Week 7), but once that trend became hard to ignore, it, too, began to head in the opposite direction. And back-and-forth we continue to go in 2003.
Other pointspread angles to note from the first two-thirds of the season include mild success by the intermediate (3? to 6?-point) home favorites, who recorded a positive 32-20-1 vs. the number, and problems encountered by more-rare double-digit home chalk, which covered only 3 of 10 chances thru Week 12. The in-season "revenge" angle has had success (12-5 vs. spread) in limited opportunities thru last week. Favorites have won but failed to cover the spread in 32 of 192 games thru Week 12, equating to about 17% of the games and well within the normal percentage (between 15-20%) we find in that category in most seasons.
For those who still insist on searching for potentially profitable technical angles and trends in a season like this, we suggest more emphasis be placed on individual team performance and trends, where there are rarely a shortage of interesting numbers to digest. At least in that regard, 2003 doesn't disappoint. So, for those technically-oriented sorts, we offer these NFL team trends worth noting from the '03 campaign.
Arizona...Continuing to struggle on road, where Cards are 0-6 SU and vs. the line, now 0-11 SU and 1-10 vs. number dating to mid '02. Baltimore...Ravens changing their "totals" pattern lately, "over" 8-4 in '03 and 12-5 last 17 dating to '02. Buffalo...Eye-opening "under" trends continuing almost unabated, as Bills "under" last 10 in '03 and 20 of last 22 dating to early '02! Carolina...Panthers just 1-6 as chalk in '03, and "over" 7 of last 8. Chicago...On nice uptick lately, covering 6 of last 7. Cincinnati...The comeback story of 2003? Marvin Lewis' coach of the year credentials buoyed by 8-1 spread mark last 9. Detroit...Lions proving feisty at Ford Field, winning and covering last 3 as host. Green Bay....More back-and-forth, as Pack hasn't
won or lost more than two straight vs. line in '03. Houston...Texans "over" 8-4 in '03. Indianapolis...Colts "over" 8-1 last 9 this season. Jacksonville...Jags improving, covering last 4. Also "over" 12-5-1 last 18 at Alltel Stadium.
Miami...Once solid home mark has taken a beating in '03, as Dolphins haven't covered last 4 at Pro Player Stadium and only 1 of 6 as host in '03. Minnesota...Talk about streaky! After winning and covering first 6 out of gate, Vikings have slipped into pointspread abyss, failing to cover last 6. New England...Solidly consistent since opening loss at Buffalo, Patriots are 9-1-1 vs. line last 11. NY Giants...Fading noticeably, now only 1-5 vs. line last 6 at Meadowlands. NY Jets...After appearing ready to rally at midseason, Jets have regressed, failing to cover last 5 (0-4-1) prior to hosting Titans last Monday.
Philadelphia...Definite uptick since early losses vs. Bucs & Patriots. Eagles have won and covered their last 7, and continue road success under HC Andy Reid (5-1 vs. line away in '03, now 27-11-2 last 40 as visitor!). Pittsburgh...Steel "over" 5-1 at Heinz Field in '03, now "over" 10-2 last 12 at home. St. Louis...No place like home for Rams, 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 vs. line at Edward Jones Dome in '03. San Diego...Slumping since mid '02, Bolts only 4-8 vs. number in '03, now 5-11 last 16 on board. San Francisco...Winless SU last 8 on road, 1-9-1 vs. spread last 11 away. Seattle...0-3-1 vs. points last 4 as visitor in '03. Tampa Bay...Going against previous Buc spread result, you'd be 9-2 vs. line thru Week 12. That includes 0-5 vs. line in game following SU win. Tennessee...7-2 vs. line last 9 entering last Monday night's game at the Jets.
Seattle(+1' & +105ML) over Minnesota (1.25*)
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/football/149924_locke26.html (the Minneapolis Star Tribune link for Viking coverage requires a password - just think groping for new buttons to push)
You figure out whether Holmgren or Tice has a team that is playing December football and is motivated off the charts in this one. A Hint: A look ahead to St. Louis or a flat spot after last week are not good capping angles in this one.
Philadelphia(-5') over Dallas (1.25*)
I seem to recall that the Cowboys of Dallas have some gaudy numbers in games played the week after Thanksgiving. Carolina had Philadelphia in a good spot with good matchups last week, including an opponent that might have been peeking ahead to Dallas, and even though I stayed off that game, I was kind of hoping Carolina would get the win to set up this situation and the line value . . . Be that as it may, the last time Philadelphia hosted a game with a championship (NFC) game atmosphere, the Eagles were stunned by a superb team on a devastating roll. For all intents and purposes, here comes another championship (division w/ home field implications) game, and an inferior Cowboy team is not likely to uncork what it takes to waltz in and take Philadelphia to the final gun with a chance to twist the dagger that's still buried close to the stout heart of a veteran Eagle's squad. Looks that Kill.
Baltimore(-3') over Cincinnati (1.25*)
Dick Vermeil commenting on the Cincinnati guarantee gets my vote so far for the quote of the year in the NFL: "Hey, maybe they can back it up. They're playing awfully well . . . They've done a good job. It's time for them to do a good job. They've been drafting No. 1 with poor winning records for a long time. Sooner or later, those guys ought to stand up and play." . . . Winning three straight games on the road may well be the rarest feat in the NFL this side of a Super Bowl championship; trends involving the Bungles of recent years are being laid to waste on a weekly basis (and I've been with the feel good guys more or less throughout November, for a nice little chunk of change), but I don't think the Bengals magic transcends this hurdle. It took every last ounce of resolve to keep things going last week and scalp those bullies from Pittsburgh, and it's worth noting that finishing any such streak will have been preceded by the effort that went into derailing an undefeated Chiefs squad. The bad boys in Baltimore are in the right spot at the right time to reinforce all those adages about what a tough league this is.
PARLAY Seattle(+1') w/ Philadelphia(-5') w/ Baltimore(+3') for 0.25* @ 7/1
Will add a couple more 1* plays.
GL
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Don't believe everything you think.
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Worth Noting: Goldsheet Synopsis of Technical Trends:
There's a lot of scufflin' going on in the NFL this season. From a technical handicapping perspective, that is.
Indeed, as we enter the final month of the pro football campaign, there haven't been many wide-sweeping trends that have sustained themselves throughout 2003, or angles that have delivered significant winning results over any extended period of measurement. It's worth noting, however, that the home team underdogs, a profitable pointspread proposition in many years, have started to stir lately, posting a 16-5-1 spread mark the last five weeks. The road chalk was dominant the first half of the campaign (21-7 thru Week 7), but once that trend became hard to ignore, it, too, began to head in the opposite direction. And back-and-forth we continue to go in 2003.
Other pointspread angles to note from the first two-thirds of the season include mild success by the intermediate (3? to 6?-point) home favorites, who recorded a positive 32-20-1 vs. the number, and problems encountered by more-rare double-digit home chalk, which covered only 3 of 10 chances thru Week 12. The in-season "revenge" angle has had success (12-5 vs. spread) in limited opportunities thru last week. Favorites have won but failed to cover the spread in 32 of 192 games thru Week 12, equating to about 17% of the games and well within the normal percentage (between 15-20%) we find in that category in most seasons.
For those who still insist on searching for potentially profitable technical angles and trends in a season like this, we suggest more emphasis be placed on individual team performance and trends, where there are rarely a shortage of interesting numbers to digest. At least in that regard, 2003 doesn't disappoint. So, for those technically-oriented sorts, we offer these NFL team trends worth noting from the '03 campaign.
Arizona...Continuing to struggle on road, where Cards are 0-6 SU and vs. the line, now 0-11 SU and 1-10 vs. number dating to mid '02. Baltimore...Ravens changing their "totals" pattern lately, "over" 8-4 in '03 and 12-5 last 17 dating to '02. Buffalo...Eye-opening "under" trends continuing almost unabated, as Bills "under" last 10 in '03 and 20 of last 22 dating to early '02! Carolina...Panthers just 1-6 as chalk in '03, and "over" 7 of last 8. Chicago...On nice uptick lately, covering 6 of last 7. Cincinnati...The comeback story of 2003? Marvin Lewis' coach of the year credentials buoyed by 8-1 spread mark last 9. Detroit...Lions proving feisty at Ford Field, winning and covering last 3 as host. Green Bay....More back-and-forth, as Pack hasn't
won or lost more than two straight vs. line in '03. Houston...Texans "over" 8-4 in '03. Indianapolis...Colts "over" 8-1 last 9 this season. Jacksonville...Jags improving, covering last 4. Also "over" 12-5-1 last 18 at Alltel Stadium.
Miami...Once solid home mark has taken a beating in '03, as Dolphins haven't covered last 4 at Pro Player Stadium and only 1 of 6 as host in '03. Minnesota...Talk about streaky! After winning and covering first 6 out of gate, Vikings have slipped into pointspread abyss, failing to cover last 6. New England...Solidly consistent since opening loss at Buffalo, Patriots are 9-1-1 vs. line last 11. NY Giants...Fading noticeably, now only 1-5 vs. line last 6 at Meadowlands. NY Jets...After appearing ready to rally at midseason, Jets have regressed, failing to cover last 5 (0-4-1) prior to hosting Titans last Monday.
Philadelphia...Definite uptick since early losses vs. Bucs & Patriots. Eagles have won and covered their last 7, and continue road success under HC Andy Reid (5-1 vs. line away in '03, now 27-11-2 last 40 as visitor!). Pittsburgh...Steel "over" 5-1 at Heinz Field in '03, now "over" 10-2 last 12 at home. St. Louis...No place like home for Rams, 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 vs. line at Edward Jones Dome in '03. San Diego...Slumping since mid '02, Bolts only 4-8 vs. number in '03, now 5-11 last 16 on board. San Francisco...Winless SU last 8 on road, 1-9-1 vs. spread last 11 away. Seattle...0-3-1 vs. points last 4 as visitor in '03. Tampa Bay...Going against previous Buc spread result, you'd be 9-2 vs. line thru Week 12. That includes 0-5 vs. line in game following SU win. Tennessee...7-2 vs. line last 9 entering last Monday night's game at the Jets.
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