1-2 yesterday, 2-4 playoffs, -2.7 units
I'm not pressing, but these all qualify in my system of plays:
1 unit STL -150
1 unit SF -115
1 unit SF under 7.5 -110
1 unit Min under 9 +100
1 unit ANA under 9 +105
2 units MINN +140
Basically, home teams are all in great spots, and some unders are gonna come through. No time for every play, but here are some interesting stats I found that support these plays.
Schmidt overall is a little above ave; at home he is a monster, sporting a sub 2.5 era, and sf is 11-5 behind him. Amazingly, ATL behind Maddux on the road is merely 56-48 since 1997--you'd be losing your ass backing maddux on the rd.
While Oak is a great favorite play (91-37), minny is an even better (1) home (2) vs righty play in terms of return on your money. Better home record than A's rd recrod, and the twinkies are 72-38 vs rd +24.15 units, which outweighs A's fav angle. Also, a slight dropoff in oak offense is expected. OAK ave's 5.0 runs a game, but 4.8 vs lefties and 4.6 on the rd. Minny, on the other hand, ave's 4.7 runs a game, but 4.8 at home and 5.2 vs righties. That's nearly a half run better in this situation. Throw in Hudson's shaky start, quick turnaround, and my gut feeling that this goes back to oakland, 2 units is the call.
The overs won't continue, and vegas doesn't think so either. They opened with 8.5 on minny/oak; its the bettors who raised the moneyline and total on games today....short term deviation from long term expectation of lower scoring games in playoffs....correction starts today!
MTK
I'm not pressing, but these all qualify in my system of plays:
1 unit STL -150
1 unit SF -115
1 unit SF under 7.5 -110
1 unit Min under 9 +100
1 unit ANA under 9 +105
2 units MINN +140
Basically, home teams are all in great spots, and some unders are gonna come through. No time for every play, but here are some interesting stats I found that support these plays.
Schmidt overall is a little above ave; at home he is a monster, sporting a sub 2.5 era, and sf is 11-5 behind him. Amazingly, ATL behind Maddux on the road is merely 56-48 since 1997--you'd be losing your ass backing maddux on the rd.
While Oak is a great favorite play (91-37), minny is an even better (1) home (2) vs righty play in terms of return on your money. Better home record than A's rd recrod, and the twinkies are 72-38 vs rd +24.15 units, which outweighs A's fav angle. Also, a slight dropoff in oak offense is expected. OAK ave's 5.0 runs a game, but 4.8 vs lefties and 4.6 on the rd. Minny, on the other hand, ave's 4.7 runs a game, but 4.8 at home and 5.2 vs righties. That's nearly a half run better in this situation. Throw in Hudson's shaky start, quick turnaround, and my gut feeling that this goes back to oakland, 2 units is the call.
The overs won't continue, and vegas doesn't think so either. They opened with 8.5 on minny/oak; its the bettors who raised the moneyline and total on games today....short term deviation from long term expectation of lower scoring games in playoffs....correction starts today!
MTK
