Preseason Prognostication is Crap
By Bryan Mulroney
Aug 9, 2003, 10:50am
BYU will finish the season 13th this year. How do I know? Well, I saw a truck drive by yesterday with the license plate BYU 413. And obviously BYU won?t finish 4th, so I?m sure they?re destined for 13th. License plates never lie.
The above example is completely ridiculous. But it is my contention, that it is hardly much more ridiculous than all of the preseason polls and prognostications released by the sundry sports magazines, websites, and ranking organizations. These polls and rankings are predicated on random guesses, unreliable inferences, and whimsy camouflaged as deductive logic.
To highlight how useless preseason prognostication is one only need look at the last several years of college football. Ohio State started out last season ranked outside the top 10 by most sources and went on to topple the ?Canes in the Fiesta Bowl. When Miami ran the table the year before, they began around number 10 in most polls. Oklahoma?s run at the title a few years back saw them fully out of the vast majority of all preseason Top 25s. So if the bulk of publications are that far off that they couldn?t even pick the National Champion within their top ten (or 25 in the case of OU), why the hell is anyone still buying their publication?
I?d like to assume that the folks who buy these texts do so for a quick update on who returns, who left for the draft, and how the other teams in their favorite conference shape up. Unfortunately, a quick look around the college football message boards let you know that this is hardly the case. People throw out quotes from Phil Steele, Athlon, or Lindy?s, as if these folks have predicted the entirety of the season and all that?s left is the dry formality of actually playing the predetermined.
Well folks, I don?t see it that way. I think the magazines might be great if you need a bit of info before you see the teams to give you an edge in your office pool or at the book, but magazines do not a season make. I believe, that polls shouldn?t be released until about the 4th week of the season and what a team did the previous season should be excluded from consideration when ranking them for the current year.
No one knows anything about what will happen this year until the teams actually take the field. Whether the shenanigans with Maurice Clarrett will affect the Buckeyes, whether Brock Berlin can lead Miami, whether the return of Lee Evans will vault Wisconsin back to a top ten program, all these are questions that cannot be answered until the teams meet on the gridiron. And any individual that attempts to see the future and offer his opinion as anything more than idle chatter should be viewed with the same skepticism with which one views National Enquirer articles.
All of the above noted, and my disdain for pre-season prognostication well established, I will offer you what I believe is the only type of preseason commentary permissible from ?responsible? journalists; pure speculation and opinion clearly labeled as such. So without further ramblings, please find below for your perusal, Bryan Mulroney?s pure speculation and idle chatter:
1. Ohio State will not repeat.
My take is that the Bucks will be much more potent on offense this year regardless of the issues with Clarrett (Ross and Hall are no slouches and likely could start for many teams.) Krenzel is a solid QB who will make good decisions all year and will keep the Buckeyes from losing games on mistakes or turnovers. With Jenkins back, and other young receivers emerging (Drew Carter and Bam Childress both had incredible performances in the Spring Game) the Bucks? should have a more balanced attack that enables the offense to do more than 3 yards and a cloud of dust.
The problem I note with this year?s edition is on the Defensive side of the ball. The DL is rock solid, but with major departures of key players at LB and in the secondary, I think OSU will be susceptible to getting burned on occasion. And if the Bucks don?t play well early against pass-happy teams like Washington and NC State they could find themselves playing catch-up all year chasing a BCS bowl bid. And if the non-conference games don?t bit the Bucks, the Big Ten slate of games at Wisky, at PSU, and at the Big House make a repeat a difficult road to travel.
Can they repeat? Yes. Will they repeat? Who knows. Does Bryan Mulroney believe they will? No.
2. Chris Rix or John Navarre will win the Heisman.
When a quarterback can put up 3000 yards passing, pick up 500 or so on the ground, and plays for a team that will be in the national title hunt, he is definitely on the short list of Heisman contenders. Chris Rix threw for over 3K in his first year as a starter and has picked up nearly 1000 yards of rushing offense in 2 years. If the Seminoles can reestablish themselves as a top 5 team this year (and they?ll have the opportunity with the schedule they have) Rix will have every opportunity to shine and make believers out of all those who supported his benching last year.
John Navarre threw for just under 3000 yards last season and this year he is aptly situated for a Carson Palmer performance. He has what I believe to be one of the top offensive lines in the game, he has a talented receiving core, and he has a team that has a great chance at winning the Big-Ten and possibly appearing in the NC game. If he keeps his ratio together and doesn?t melt down when the Buckeyes visit Ann Arbor he?s my second choice for the trophy.
3. Maurice Clarrett will not win the Heisman.
Well, this should be a given due to my previous assertion, but being that I am sure someone will take me to task, I?ll go ahead and address this here. Mo? Clarrett is probably the most naturally talented athlete playing college football today. Unfortunately, his ability has placed a spotlight on him and he hasn?t been particularly adept and avoiding controversy. My feeling is that Mo? will play a good portion of the season, but unless he stays 100% clean with no mistakes or poor commentary, voters will look elsewhere. And if his shoulder injury resurfaces at all, he has almost no chance of putting up the numbers necessary to get the voters to overlook his off the field issues and vote his way regardless.
4. Virginia will start 6-0 and take second in the ACC.
The Cavaliers still have an incredibly young team and I actually think next year will be their best, but this team should start the season strong and have enough to get past the ?Cocks on September 6. Past that, they can welcome the Seminoles on October 18 with a 6-0 record and a shot at the lead in the conference. I think the ?Noles will still be a bit much (as I stated earlier I expect Rix to have a Heisman caliber year) but the Cavs? should finish the conference ahead of the remainder and be welcomed back to a second straight bowl.
5. Oregon will once again have the ugliest uniforms in the game.
The Ducks unveiled a new neon yellow colored uni that looks like they should be offering to escort children safely across the street rather than playing ball. The color is dubbed lightning and is interesting to say the least. You can see a picture here: http://photo.live.advance.net/olive/images/1356/yellow.jpg
And that?s it for my preseason commentary folks. Hopefully the fifth item isn?t the only one that proves accurate?
By Bryan Mulroney
Aug 9, 2003, 10:50am
BYU will finish the season 13th this year. How do I know? Well, I saw a truck drive by yesterday with the license plate BYU 413. And obviously BYU won?t finish 4th, so I?m sure they?re destined for 13th. License plates never lie.
The above example is completely ridiculous. But it is my contention, that it is hardly much more ridiculous than all of the preseason polls and prognostications released by the sundry sports magazines, websites, and ranking organizations. These polls and rankings are predicated on random guesses, unreliable inferences, and whimsy camouflaged as deductive logic.
To highlight how useless preseason prognostication is one only need look at the last several years of college football. Ohio State started out last season ranked outside the top 10 by most sources and went on to topple the ?Canes in the Fiesta Bowl. When Miami ran the table the year before, they began around number 10 in most polls. Oklahoma?s run at the title a few years back saw them fully out of the vast majority of all preseason Top 25s. So if the bulk of publications are that far off that they couldn?t even pick the National Champion within their top ten (or 25 in the case of OU), why the hell is anyone still buying their publication?
I?d like to assume that the folks who buy these texts do so for a quick update on who returns, who left for the draft, and how the other teams in their favorite conference shape up. Unfortunately, a quick look around the college football message boards let you know that this is hardly the case. People throw out quotes from Phil Steele, Athlon, or Lindy?s, as if these folks have predicted the entirety of the season and all that?s left is the dry formality of actually playing the predetermined.
Well folks, I don?t see it that way. I think the magazines might be great if you need a bit of info before you see the teams to give you an edge in your office pool or at the book, but magazines do not a season make. I believe, that polls shouldn?t be released until about the 4th week of the season and what a team did the previous season should be excluded from consideration when ranking them for the current year.
No one knows anything about what will happen this year until the teams actually take the field. Whether the shenanigans with Maurice Clarrett will affect the Buckeyes, whether Brock Berlin can lead Miami, whether the return of Lee Evans will vault Wisconsin back to a top ten program, all these are questions that cannot be answered until the teams meet on the gridiron. And any individual that attempts to see the future and offer his opinion as anything more than idle chatter should be viewed with the same skepticism with which one views National Enquirer articles.
All of the above noted, and my disdain for pre-season prognostication well established, I will offer you what I believe is the only type of preseason commentary permissible from ?responsible? journalists; pure speculation and opinion clearly labeled as such. So without further ramblings, please find below for your perusal, Bryan Mulroney?s pure speculation and idle chatter:
1. Ohio State will not repeat.
My take is that the Bucks will be much more potent on offense this year regardless of the issues with Clarrett (Ross and Hall are no slouches and likely could start for many teams.) Krenzel is a solid QB who will make good decisions all year and will keep the Buckeyes from losing games on mistakes or turnovers. With Jenkins back, and other young receivers emerging (Drew Carter and Bam Childress both had incredible performances in the Spring Game) the Bucks? should have a more balanced attack that enables the offense to do more than 3 yards and a cloud of dust.
The problem I note with this year?s edition is on the Defensive side of the ball. The DL is rock solid, but with major departures of key players at LB and in the secondary, I think OSU will be susceptible to getting burned on occasion. And if the Bucks don?t play well early against pass-happy teams like Washington and NC State they could find themselves playing catch-up all year chasing a BCS bowl bid. And if the non-conference games don?t bit the Bucks, the Big Ten slate of games at Wisky, at PSU, and at the Big House make a repeat a difficult road to travel.
Can they repeat? Yes. Will they repeat? Who knows. Does Bryan Mulroney believe they will? No.
2. Chris Rix or John Navarre will win the Heisman.
When a quarterback can put up 3000 yards passing, pick up 500 or so on the ground, and plays for a team that will be in the national title hunt, he is definitely on the short list of Heisman contenders. Chris Rix threw for over 3K in his first year as a starter and has picked up nearly 1000 yards of rushing offense in 2 years. If the Seminoles can reestablish themselves as a top 5 team this year (and they?ll have the opportunity with the schedule they have) Rix will have every opportunity to shine and make believers out of all those who supported his benching last year.
John Navarre threw for just under 3000 yards last season and this year he is aptly situated for a Carson Palmer performance. He has what I believe to be one of the top offensive lines in the game, he has a talented receiving core, and he has a team that has a great chance at winning the Big-Ten and possibly appearing in the NC game. If he keeps his ratio together and doesn?t melt down when the Buckeyes visit Ann Arbor he?s my second choice for the trophy.
3. Maurice Clarrett will not win the Heisman.
Well, this should be a given due to my previous assertion, but being that I am sure someone will take me to task, I?ll go ahead and address this here. Mo? Clarrett is probably the most naturally talented athlete playing college football today. Unfortunately, his ability has placed a spotlight on him and he hasn?t been particularly adept and avoiding controversy. My feeling is that Mo? will play a good portion of the season, but unless he stays 100% clean with no mistakes or poor commentary, voters will look elsewhere. And if his shoulder injury resurfaces at all, he has almost no chance of putting up the numbers necessary to get the voters to overlook his off the field issues and vote his way regardless.
4. Virginia will start 6-0 and take second in the ACC.
The Cavaliers still have an incredibly young team and I actually think next year will be their best, but this team should start the season strong and have enough to get past the ?Cocks on September 6. Past that, they can welcome the Seminoles on October 18 with a 6-0 record and a shot at the lead in the conference. I think the ?Noles will still be a bit much (as I stated earlier I expect Rix to have a Heisman caliber year) but the Cavs? should finish the conference ahead of the remainder and be welcomed back to a second straight bowl.
5. Oregon will once again have the ugliest uniforms in the game.
The Ducks unveiled a new neon yellow colored uni that looks like they should be offering to escort children safely across the street rather than playing ball. The color is dubbed lightning and is interesting to say the least. You can see a picture here: http://photo.live.advance.net/olive/images/1356/yellow.jpg
And that?s it for my preseason commentary folks. Hopefully the fifth item isn?t the only one that proves accurate?
