FYI - Monday Night Football - EVERYONE on the VIKINGS
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I just saw this post... hmmm, I'm not sure where you get this stuff - just other message boards?
Covers has 65% on Giants, and my amateur guys all like Giants. hmmm
Again, I pay attention to this stuff, but I feel, especially in the past couple years... all people want to be on some "sharp" side. It's a fight to be opposite everyone else. This angle is WAYYYY overused now, and thus, just not very useful.
I like to think of it more in terms, of why a line is set the way it is, rather than, who does everyone love - I realize they are connected, and I do reference the public money and "begging you to bet" etc... but I think there are some subtle differences here that people overlook.
At any rate, where is all the Vikings love?
Covers has 65% on Giants, and my amateur guys all like Giants. hmmm
Again, I pay attention to this stuff, but I feel, especially in the past couple years... all people want to be on some "sharp" side. It's a fight to be opposite everyone else. This angle is WAYYYY overused now, and thus, just not very useful.
I like to think of it more in terms, of why a line is set the way it is, rather than, who does everyone love - I realize they are connected, and I do reference the public money and "begging you to bet" etc... but I think there are some subtle differences here that people overlook.
At any rate, where is all the Vikings love?
Good stuff Jord20.
For a while I would go against public plays where the line would stay the same all week although all the money would be getting dumped on one side. Or if there was some reverse line movement? The NBA KID was good at spotting these situations and picking the ones that were usually good spots. I on the other hand was lucky to be 50/50 betting like that.
Yesterday Kansas City and Denver were nice public fades as the lines seemed to stay right at -6 and -6.5 all week even though a high percentage of bettors was on the favorites. We all know how that turned out.
Think you nailed it when you said "this angle is WAYYY overused now"
Thanks,
For a while I would go against public plays where the line would stay the same all week although all the money would be getting dumped on one side. Or if there was some reverse line movement? The NBA KID was good at spotting these situations and picking the ones that were usually good spots. I on the other hand was lucky to be 50/50 betting like that.
Yesterday Kansas City and Denver were nice public fades as the lines seemed to stay right at -6 and -6.5 all week even though a high percentage of bettors was on the favorites. We all know how that turned out.
Think you nailed it when you said "this angle is WAYYY overused now"
Thanks,
Yeah, Kid was good at this. He was ahead of the curve, so he caught the juicy part of this angle... but he was struggling a bit at the end, because the angle per se, isn't that profitable anymore. I'm an ex-trader, and it was the same way there...
You find a technical pattern, a niche trade, or a random juicy market, and it is good until others catch up. Once everyone does it, the angle becomes worthless because it's always front-ran out of existence.
I think the angle should still be used and considered for things like, where did they set the opening line, and from staying away from or getting the other way on games that move past key numbers... if you can add on that this is happening opposite of the perceived perception and public betting, you can definitely use it as part of your capping.
Situational plays have been huge this year in college and pro. Soft spots in schedules, look aheads, letdowns, etc. This is a tough angle to get watered down because that human emotion element just will not go away. Of course, they can adjust lines enough to overcompensate for these spots, but the "frsh in the mind" performance of last week is still too powerful, and the betitng public is not sophisticated emotionally enough to take these things into account with the proper value.
The key for me is always the determination between...
a) there is too much value in this line - i think it should be -3, and it is at -6. I have to take the dog and the value... and...
b) This line should be 3 and they made it 6 - for a reason... I'm laying the 6 Billy blastoff style.
To me, last night was the perfect spot because, the line should have been 3 (4 tops), and it was 6.5. So, I felt I was getting a FG in extra value. And, the public was so over infatuated with the high scoring Broncos, that they probably would have laid 7 or more, so the line staying under 7 was telling. AND, it was a great spot because we just saw Indy lay an egg in a sandwich spot vs the mediocre (but possibly underrated) Chargers in prime time.
It has nothing to do with who was betting on the Vikings, had more to do with who plays on the Vikings
