gambling problem #13E

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Lucky Freddie's system picks are smoking and you've been cleaning up following him.


Today he's posted 3 "system picks" as follows...

pick.......probability%......line/break-even mark.........VI..........ROI
A..............70.................-150/60...........................+10..........16.7%
B..............60..................+100/50.........................+10...........20%
C..............50..................+150/40.........................+10...........25%

==============================

Say you like to normally stick to $300 in wagers.
No other events really have your interest today.

Would you prefer one pick or another,
or would you split up your wagers some how?

Some might pay more attention to the actual lines.
Some may be concerned with reducing risk.
I see value everywhere and would likely play them all. Think I like A the most but maybe split between B & C, though I do like my 60's.
Undecided.

 

[tigerfan]

To me it would depend on the start of the games - if they all started at the same time i would bet all 3 and hope to go 2-1 - if they were stagered bet the 1st see what happen and ajust from there - if i won quit - if not press

Tigerfan

 

[MadJack]

Lucky Freddie's system picks are smoking and you've been cleaning up following him.


Today he's posted 3 "system picks" as follows...

pick.......probability%......line/break-even mark.........VI..........ROI
A..............70.................-150/60...........................+10..........16.7%
B..............60..................+100/50.........................+10...........20%
C..............50..................+150/40.........................+10...........25%

==============================

Say you like to normally stick to $300 in wagers.
No other events really have your interest today.

Would you prefer one pick or another,
or would you split up your wagers some how?

Some might pay more attention to the actual lines.
Some may be concerned with reducing risk.
I see value everywhere and would likely play them all. Think I like A the most but maybe split between B & C, though I do like my 60's.
Undecided.

 

[yak merchant]

Lucky Freddie's system picks are smoking and you've been cleaning up following him.


Today he's posted 3 "system picks" as follows...

pick.......probability%......line/break-even mark.........VI..........ROI
A..............70.................-150/60...........................+10..........16.7%
B..............60..................+100/50.........................+10...........20%
C..............50..................+150/40.........................+10...........25%

==============================

Say you like to normally stick to $300 in wagers.
No other events really have your interest today.

Would you prefer one pick or another,
or would you split up your wagers some how?

Some might pay more attention to the actual lines.
Some may be concerned with reducing risk.
I see value everywhere and would likely play them all. Think I like A the most but maybe split between B & C, though I do like my 60's.
Undecided.

Well if we are going to live in fantasy land then I don't really get the big quandry in the decision. If you really do have a minimum 16.7% advantage on those three games you bet the maximum size bet your bankroll allows at the advantage for all 3. Kelly Criterion actually says to bet more on A and B, but Kelly has it's problems and no way would I be betting the percentages of a bankroll Kelly suggest. Now if for some reason you had to bet your whole bankroll on these three mythical games all on one day then you might have a valid question. But the real problem has nothing to do with the splitting of sure positive expectation bets. If you had that big an advantage every day, you'd have bigger worries about bet maximums, and actually finding someone who would take your action.

The real problem revolves around identifying you have a 16.7% advantage. How do you know Freddies' prediction is going to pick the winner 70% of the time on a 60% break-even line. When do previous picks "smoking" have any bearing on the result of future events. I'm too lazy to do the math on sample size to test for significance, but at 3 picks a day and that "advantage" level you'd probably have to have multiple years of Freddie's picks to ensure he can consistently beat the line by that big a percentage. Plus how do you know his system works as well today as it did in the past? Or that it's using the same variables today as it did throught the sample size? I could go on, but gambling comes down to two things. First the hard part which is "finding" situations in which the probabilities relating to the results of an event diverge from the "odds" for that same event.
Then second is betting manageable amounts of your bankroll that are in line with your predicted advantages so that even if you go on a run of losers you won't cash flow yourself before the "advantage" kicks in in the long term and makes you money.

 

[justin22g]

Lucky Freddie's system picks are smoking and you've been cleaning up following him.


Today he's posted 3 "system picks" as follows...

pick.......probability%......line/break-even mark.........VI..........ROI
A..............70.................-150/60...........................+10..........16.7%
B..............60..................+100/50.........................+10...........20%
C..............50..................+150/40.........................+10...........25%

==============================

Say you like to normally stick to $300 in wagers.
No other events really have your interest today.

Would you prefer one pick or another,
or would you split up your wagers some how?

Some might pay more attention to the actual lines.
Some may be concerned with reducing risk.
I see value everywhere and would likely play them all. Think I like A the most but maybe split between B & C, though I do like my 60's.
Undecided.

how can u calculate ROI on one day? Thats my question.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

gambling comes down to two things. First the hard part which is "finding" situations in which the probabilities relating to the results of an event diverge from the "odds" for that same event.
Then second is betting manageable amounts of your bankroll that are in line with your predicted advantages so that even if you go on a run of losers you won't cash flow yourself before the "advantage" kicks in in the long term and makes you money.

The First has been done here. Say he's given the reasons that the probabilities diverge from the odds listed. Better yet, imagine you've found said value by your own estimates.

I present the situation of a "normal" day being $300 for you. Maybe you risk more to supposed value or maybe not. How you would manage this $300 is part of my question.

The other part is about how anyone else assesses these things. Do you check lines first and consider from there? Do you have a probability in mind before checking the lines? Do others try to come up with formulas to suggest comparable probabilities?

As for ROI, justin, I'm just using simple calculations to figure out supposed house dis-advantages for each event. A coin-flip paying +150 has a -25% house advantage (positive ROI for the player) as winning 75 (1.5x50) minus 50 (-1x50) leaves +25 for every 100 units risked. Hypothetically.

Getting somewhere.
I understand, yak, that my situation is totally theoretical but situations like these will undoubtedly come up for me as long as I'm pursuing this stuff and I'm just not totally satisfied with my analysis. Just looking for alternative ways to assess my choices above. Been thinking about these particular examples for some time.

Coffee time.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

BTW, yak, what is this Kelly Criterion?
Something in probability theory or gambling theory that I've never heard of?
Clearly something that I've never heard of.

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

:mj07: :mj07:

 

[Franky Wright]

:0corn I wholeheartedly agree... :SIB

 

[yak merchant]

BTW, yak, what is this Kelly Criterion?
Something in probability theory or gambling theory that I've never heard of?
Clearly something that I've never heard of.

Kelly Criterion is a utilization function first created to assist with probabilities of telegraph signals reaching their destination due to line noise (or something like that. Use the internet it's your friend). But is used today for calculating optimal bet size using your edge and the odds. In a pure math world it works great, but the problem with it is that it makes large % of your bankroll bets on high odds if you perceive an advantage. If your perceived advantage is even a little wrong you will be broke in a matter of days. Either way there is no such thing as an average day. No one holds a gun to your head and says you have to bet $300 dollars today. That is what people that need action do. You should worry about obtaining a way to get an advantage and measuring it. Then when you have an advantage, bet the appropriate percentage of your bankroll. Most people, don't have an advantage, and those that do have no idea how big their advantage is, therefore, most people counter this with their idea of money management, with concepts such as only betting so much a day (keeping the negative expectation gambler in the game longer), or only betting 3 games a day (forcing the person to have a better chance of picking a positive expectation game).

 

[MadJack]

:0corn I wholeheartedly agree... :SIB

:mj07:

 

[kickserv]

man oh man do I ever feel stupid when I read a post by EXTRAPOLATER :mj07:



and Jack where the heck did ya find that guy from Prison Break.....I was pissed when they killed him off...he was a bad dude:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Kelly Criterion is a utilization function first created to assist with probabilities of telegraph signals reaching their destination due to line noise (or something like that. Use the internet it's your friend). But is used today for calculating optimal bet size using your edge and the odds. In a pure math world it works great, but the problem with it is that it makes large % of your bankroll bets on high odds if you perceive an advantage. If your perceived advantage is even a little wrong you will be broke in a matter of days. Either way there is no such thing as an average day. No one holds a gun to your head and says you have to bet $300 dollars today. That is what people that need action do. You should worry about obtaining a way to get an advantage and measuring it. Then when you have an advantage, bet the appropriate percentage of your bankroll. Most people, don't have an advantage, and those that do have no idea how big their advantage is, therefore, most people counter this with their idea of money management, with concepts such as only betting so much a day (keeping the negative expectation gambler in the game longer), or only betting 3 games a day (forcing the person to have a better chance of picking a positive expectation game).

Could be the kind of thing that I'm looking for; I'll do a search tonight.
Thanks

I'm still surprised that no one has a preference between A, B or C. I've posted what I thought was relevant to the decision (minus teams and all), suggested that there is no right answer and even stated my leanings. I dunno...might try one more (somewhat) interesting problem before taking my inquiries in another direction. Thought that maybe there were other gamblers who took a somewhat similar approach. I'll check out this Kelly Criterion stuff and see what's valuable within.

To your wallet.

:toast:

 

[JCDunkDogs]

Kelly Criterion would dictate that your bet size as a percentage of your bankroll is "your edge" divided by the "odds" offered, but just for safety sake I like to divide the resulting number, again, by two. That way, I can avoid tapping out until the last moment before the plane ride home.

 

[ScreaminPain]

Kelly Criterion would dictate that your bet size as a percentage of your bankroll is "your edge" divided by the "odds" offered, but just for safety sake I like to divide the resulting number, again, by two.

I'ts impossible to "tap out" using full Kelly...:nono:

 

[yak merchant]

I'ts impossible to "tap out" using full Kelly...:nono:

True but you can take a 10k bankroll to nothing in a matter of days. I consider betting $0.32 a game tapped out.

 

[JCDunkDogs]

I'ts impossible to "tap out" using full Kelly...:nono:

You've never been to the track with me. :mj07: