game five: oswalt vs. wright...opinions?

[gman2]

anybody have any strong opinions on this game? a few things im trying to handicap here:

* oswalt dominated the braves in game two. scattered eight hits, but really wasnt hit hard at all. pitching on three days rest makes me a little gunshy though. weve seen time and again how difficult it is for pitchers to win on short rest. to not only do it, but do it as a chalk and on the road? whew. i dont know.

* wright was terrible in game one. astros hit him hard. i know it was six years ago (has it been that long already? damn) but wright has a track record of being solid when the stakes are highest, and has solid "game seven numbers" (vs. yankees and vs. marlins in '97). short series, but same logic. overall, hes been atlanta's most consistent starter this year. does he come up big again?

* morale of the astros. can they put the crushing game four loss behind them?

* will lidge and smoltz be their normal dominant selves if called upon by either manager? both cox and garner have extended these guys more than normal this series (with smoltz getting stretched to 3.0 innings in game 2 and 2.0 sunday and lidge 2.2 innings in game 2 plus a few other appearances)

* cox vs. garner looks like a big edge to the braves right now.

* but i dont think atlanta is a difficult venue to win at. to me, the braves have far and away the worst home field advantage of any team in the playoffs. so having game five on their own turf means little to me.

anyone have a strong lean one way or the other, on either the side or total?

 

[fla]

I think the value is with the Braves. Houston can't like flying back to Atlanta and Oswalt is pitching on three days rest. GL, bud.

 

[The Big Tease]

For what it is worth....I dont understand why Atlanta is the home dog in this situation.....Wright has been lights out all year at home.....about a run better than Oswalts away numbers. Houston made it to the postseason due to their great home field advantage at the end of the year......well, this one is on the road.

One guy really sticks out in my mind and that is John Smoltz.....I have never seen him so animated. He is the leader of this team, and over-worked or not....this guy will see action, and will pump up the crowd and his team. I think he realizes that time is running out on getting back to the big show.

To be honest I think the line is so out of whack that it is scaring me off the play! I fully expected the Braves to be about -115.

Curious to see what others think......

 

[JCoverS]

Tough one to call. You are right about that ATL home field...those fans sit on their hands until the Braves give them something to cheer about. If Braves get behind early and have nothing going in the early innings it might be like a morgue. Braves players are pretty low key, too.

Maybe somebody could throw some numbers at me to contradict me, but I have never really trusted Oswalt on the road. I feel his dominant pitching is mostly done at home. It actually surprised me that he held down the Braves so well in game 2. Add in the short rest and I certainly wouldn't take the 'Stros here.

While I could certainly foresee a great game pitched by Wright tomorrow, the fact that he started to struggle a bit down the stretch of the season and his performance in game 1, really make it tough to back the Braves here, too.

I guess it is a pass for me :shrug:

Good Luck to All,

-JC

 

[Blackman]

Very briefly -- I think the line value is with the Braves yet I still think the Stros will win this series, most likely a pass here.

Basically what has been said -- hate to lay road chalk on Oswalt on short rest, even though I do think they will pull it out.

 

[bryanz]

smart play Blackman , this is a pass for you because ATL wins.Your pass says it all!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[gman2]

big tease:

speaking of things that dont make sense, can someone tell me how the hell the red sox are favored in their series vs the yankees? that, to me, is absolutely laughable. are the red sox playing great baseball? absolutely. are they capable of winning? absolutely. but they should not be favored by a single penny over new york. i know the strong boston contingent will say "but its different this year... we have the pitching and yanks dont". i dont give a shit. new york owns boston, until proven otherwise. theres a reason theyve been 90 years without a world series ring.

 

[Blackman]

big tease:

speaking of things that dont make sense, can someone tell me how the hell the red sox are favored in their series vs the yankees? that, to me, is absolutely laughable. are the red sox playing great baseball? absolutely. are they capable of winning? absolutely. but they should not be favored by a single penny over new york. i know the strong boston contingent will say "but its different this year... we have the pitching and yanks dont". i dont give a shit. new york owns boston, until proven otherwise. theres a reason theyve been 90 years without a world series ring.

Took the words out of my mouth -- based on the long history of these franchises (and the fact that the Yanks have home field!!!!) this line amazes me. I can not think of any time where the Wild Card team is the series favorite in this LDS round over it's ten year history.

 

[Tupac]

There is more value on Atlanta as a home dog in this one.

 

[Pujo21]

This year Roy Oswalt pitched on 3 days rest at L.A. on 7-11...
I remember this because i bet against him , he was favored -7 versus LIMA. The manager tried to squeeze a start out of him before the all-star break. ASTROS LOST 7-4, Oswalt got the loss.That day it just struck me as a great bet because of the manager doing that which I thought was really dumb.

AND HENCE: Here we go again ! ? ?

He pitched: on 7/11
6 innings 8 hits 3 er 3 BB 8 Ks
threw 90 something pitches.

RAIN is forecasted in ATLANTA tomorrow not to mention that Ken Caminiti died Sunday in The Bronx at the age of 41.

 

[Pujo21]

I already have Atlanta for the series so i may or may not look to hedge a couple of bucks.
Look at Santana and Clemens 3 day routine this weekend.. BIG FAVES...you get 5-6 innings out of them , then you are at the mercy of The Bullpens.

MAYBE the over is the way to go..these pitching staffs have been used. Smoltzie threw 28 pitches Sunday and 45 pitches on Thursday.

 

[tt boy]

Anyone remember last year???Same scenario.game 5 in Atlanta against the Cubs.I was on the Braves.Bad move..they couldn't touch Kerry Wood and Cubs win going away. :moon:

As much as I'd like to jump on the Braves again I'm not going to get burned by this bunch 2 years in a row :scared

 

[kcwolf]

I don't understand what Garner was thinking.

Why not pitch anyone in game 4, and have a rested Clemens for game 5? Then you have a rested Oswalt to start against the Cards. Especially when Clemens could only go 5 innings and will probably happen again tonight.

If the Stros win, the Cards have got to be loving this.

 

[The Big Tease]

OK......I have been chewing on this game for a long while now. Clearly, I would say that 80% of people think this line is out of whack......The majority of people are going to be on the dog tonight.....no doubt about it.

Now here is a thought that came to mind......LOTS of people put their money on the series price.....which I would venture to say that Houston was favored to win......is this funny line an attempt to even out the action in that regard??

I mean, it is possible that Vegas got pounded with Houston money to win the series.....and now that the series is tied......they have an attempt to "hedge" the action by making Atlanta look like a sweet dog. This will even things out......

Do you guys see where I am going? Let me know if this makes sense.....if it makes sense I am going with my initial thought, and that is that Atlanta looks like a value-filled dog.

If not.....then Houston has to be the play here.

 

[IntenseOperator]

anybody have any strong opinions on this game? a few things im trying to handicap here:

* oswalt dominated the braves in game two. scattered eight hits, but really wasnt hit hard at all. pitching on three days rest makes me a little gunshy though. weve seen time and again how difficult it is for pitchers to win on short rest. to not only do it, but do it as a chalk and on the road? whew. i dont know.

* wright was terrible in game one. astros hit him hard. i know it was six years ago (has it been that long already? damn) but wright has a track record of being solid when the stakes are highest, and has solid "game seven numbers" (vs. yankees and vs. marlins in '97). short series, but same logic. overall, hes been atlanta's most consistent starter this year. does he come up big again?

* morale of the astros. can they put the crushing game four loss behind them?

* will lidge and smoltz be their normal dominant selves if called upon by either manager? both cox and garner have extended these guys more than normal this series (with smoltz getting stretched to 3.0 innings in game 2 and 2.0 sunday and lidge 2.2 innings in game 2 plus a few other appearances)

* cox vs. garner looks like a big edge to the braves right now.

* but i dont think atlanta is a difficult venue to win at. to me, the braves have far and away the worst home field advantage of any team in the playoffs. so having game five on their own turf means little to me.

anyone have a strong lean one way or the other, on either the side or total?

Wright was more of an unknown factor back then. They got a book on him now.

I have Houston for the series Tease, I think they were -$140.

Another question is whether Cox will go to Smoltz if they are down?

Another thing to remember is that Chipper is definitely playing hurt. And that other dude is going to the clink when Atlanta'a season ends. Could be something of a distraction tonight.

I also think Houston pen (which nobody is talking about) will do better away from home.

Wright last three starts 5.69 with a total of 12.7 innings pitched :scared

 

[IntenseOperator]

Also

Everyone on the radio and the net is beating up Garner for the three days rest thing.

I got a feeling he looks like a champ tonight. Everyone is all too wrapped up with that IMO.

Something tells me this nut Oswalt will use this to his advantage. Houston likes to be motivated by doubters.

 

[IntenseOperator]

All I'm seeing on the net is Braves players :thinking:

 

[IntenseOperator]

Read off the net Oswalt only threw 90 pitches last time out.

 

[SPIDER]

the big tease, i played the astros to win the series, the line was -110 either way.


spider

 

[IntenseOperator]

Sorry I forgot

My local bumps up lines on favs all the time