game five: oswalt vs. wright...opinions?

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
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off the net...

off the net...

Mike Godsey writeup....

In deciding games of course, each manager knows ?there is no tomorrow?. That has little effect on how they can use their offensive players, but it means every pitcher is available. There are a ton of systems favoring the under and many are not overlapping. While the most statistically significant of these systems is actually based on a total of 9 (it?s 8?-9 with varying juice), there are many other computer systems on this one.

Jaret Wright has sensational home numbers this year with an ERA of 2.99 and a WHIP of 1.218. In six of Oswalt?s last seven starts, he?s given up two runs or less including unearned runs and he?s lasted seven innings in five of those six with the exception being 6 1/3. The pitchers have gone under a combined 6-of-8 against their opposing teams.

The Braves have just one HR and 10 RBI in 110 ABs to Oswalt. Despite a rough outing last time, Wright is the hottest of the Bravo pitchers and has like we said been sensational at the Jane.
 

Farm Boy

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What about the total in this game. Public money seems to be coming in on the under driving the # down. With two good hitting teams, 3 days rest, tired bullpens, 3 of 4 overs so far, and the beloved Oswalt who always drives totals down, wouldn't over be the play? Oswalt is sure to give up something tonight on the road with short rest. As for the Braves, they are throwing their season in the hands of Jarret Wright because after him they have nowhere to go. If he can't give them 7 innings tonight, houston figures to get something out of a worn Braves bullpen.
 

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
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SYSTEM #1: Play Against all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (HOUSTON) with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL, in October games (25-10 since 1997, 71% WINNERS).
SYSTEM #2: Play On any team (ATLANTA) scoring > = 4.8 RPG on the season (NL) against an opponent starting a pitcher who is working on 3 or less days rest (41-18 over the last 5 seasons, 70% WINNERS).
Houston is 4-14 in the division series since 1997.
Oswalt is 2-6 after giving up < = 2 earned runs in his last 2 outings this season. (Team's Record)
Oswalt is 1-5 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 this season. (Team's Record)
Atlanta is 12-4 as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 3 seasons.
 

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
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Houston team record is 1-4 against Atlanta when Oswalt starts which makes this line even more curious.

I'm leaning towards the Stro's
 

MACH1

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I like the Astros for a couple of reasons..

1) The Killer Bees will be buzzing in Wrights head tonight. If he gets too fine, he'll put too many ppl on base. All four are hitting above .333 in the series.

2) Yes, Wright has Post-Season exp., but his numbers are horrid. 3-4 7.86 ERA in the postseason.

3) I believe Houston has more confidence than ATL right now, however if ATL is ahead or tied going into the last 3 innings, then it may be too difficult for Houston to overcome. But I think Houston wants it more and they'll show it tonight.

Houston -120 for 3units
 

MACH1

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MACH1 said:
I like the Astros for a couple of reasons..

1) The Killer Bees will be buzzing in Wrights head tonight. If he gets too fine, he'll put too many ppl on base. All four are hitting above .333 in the series.

2) Yes, Wright has Post-Season exp., but his numbers are horrid. 3-4 7.86 ERA in the postseason.

3) I believe Houston has more confidence than ATL right now, however if ATL is ahead or tied going into the last 3 innings, then it may be too difficult for Houston to overcome. But I think Houston wants it more and they'll show it tonight.

Houston -120 for 3units

It's nice to be right for a change!! :clap: :shocked: :thumb:
 
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