I'll be playing this as big as I played Auburn over Alabama. . . so this will be one of my GOYs, just haven't decided how much money will be on it.
Line is now at 4. . . public has driven this line down as I show 73% at a consensus site that is pretty reliable. Looks like a lot of points to give the #1 team, but here's why they (the public) are wrong:
Florida is ranked #1 and Kentucky is ranked #7, but I feel both teams are playing fairly similar and in reality, Kentucky should probably be ranked ahead of Florida the way they are playing RIGHT NOW. Both are riding huge streaks and have played great on the road as of late. The distinguishing factor for me is that Kentucky is very impressive on defense holding several teams that shoot the ball well (Notre Dame included) to very low shooting percentages. Florida has been impressive in their own right, but not as impressive. So the public is playing this as the higher ranked team getting points and they usually get burned (Arizona over Kansas being an exception). Funny, how much reliance is placed on the polls even for those who cap games. They are usually a false indicator of reality yet ESPN, CBS, and all of the national television stations, magazines, newspapers, etc rely on them when mentioning anything about college basketball.
So my theory is that Kentucky SHOULD be a one or two point favorite on a neutral court based on how they are playing RIGHT NOW. Add in the home court advantage and for a big game this should give us at least four points. I feel its worth even more in this situation as calls should go Kentucky's way for the most part.
Still gonna wait and see what happens to this line for a while. Would play it at 4, but I think I'll be greedy and see if it goes down maybe another half point.
