BEGINNING THURSDAY, MAY 7
San Diego at Arizona (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Padres have a lot going for them this year, including the highest scoring offense in the NL (5.0 runs per game so far), so it?s surprising to see them slumping (4-6, -$305 in their last 10). They?ve lost money vs. righthanders in all settings (-$235) and that will hurt them when taking on the all-righty Arizona rotation. The D?backs? pitching staff will not be at full strength, with ace righty Archie Bradley on the DL after being hit by a line drive in his last outing. But Josh Collmenter checks in with an impressive 3.03 after five starts, and he will be on the hill this weekend. BEST BET: Collmenter.
Miami at San Francisco (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Marlins have bounced back from a dismal first two weeks and are now one of the hottest teams in the majors, winning 9 of their last 11 (+$665). They have the best team BA in the league at this time (.274) and despite having their two best pitchers sidelined they?ve gotten excellent work from a number of starters. Miami was a big money-maker vs. lefties in 2014 (+$725) and they?ve racked up a 4-1 mark this year (+$285, averaging 5.4 runs per game). Bradley Bumgarner will no doubt be a heavy favorite at ATT Park, we?ll back the visitor when he throws. BEST BET: Marlins vs. Bumgarner.
Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Orioles have seen their schedule disrupted by events in Baltimore, so it?s hard to get behind them in the Bronx when they square off against the sizzling hot Yankees (NY 8-2, +$590 in the last 10 days). The O?s have serious pitching problems (4.31 team ERA) while New York checks in with a stellar 3.20 mark, 3rd best in the American League at this time. Michael Pineda is rounding into form very nicely (+$265 overall, with a 2.03 ERA in his last two appearances) and Nathan Eovaldi looks more and more impressive. Both are likely to appear in this series. BEST BET: Pineda/Eovaldi.
Texas at Tampa Bay (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
We knew the Rangers would pitch poorly this year (4.26 ERA so far) but what?s surprising is how poorly they?ve fared at the plate (.216 team BA, worst in the league). They?ve already racked up some hefty losses (-$595 overall) and they?ll face a tough Tampa team that has won 7 of its last 11 (+$310). Chris Archer (1.64 ERA in six starts) and Jake Odorizzi (2.41 in five outings) have done a terrific job anchoring the injury plagued rotation. Both will take a turn at Tropicana Field this weekend. BEST BET: Archer/Odorizzi.
Houston at L.A. Angels (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Astros had hoped to achieve a respectable .500 mark this season after years of futility, but they?ve done much much more up to this point. They?ve amassed a stunning 18-7 mark to open the 2015 campaign (+$1395), aided by a surprisingly effective mound corps (3.12 team ERA, 2nd best in the AL). The Angels aren?t hitting much (.224 BA, next to last in the league) and their numbers vs. righties are horrible (-$655, averaging just 3.6 runs per game). We should catch some nice prices on the visiting underdog when they come to Anaheim. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Angels.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, MAY 8
Atlanta at Washington (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Nationals got a needed boost when they posted back to back 1-0 victories over the Mets at CitiField. But they continue to flounder vs. righthanded starters (8-12, -$745) and they?re likely to see at least a couple this weekend. But it?s hard to get excited about the fading Braves (4-8, -$365 in their last 12), a team that is unlikely to contend in the NL East this season. We?ll like to see the Nats pick things up at the plate before we lay fat prices on them. We?ll take a closer look on game day. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
After a spectacular start to the season the Mets have cooled off considerably in recent days (4-7, -$260 in their last 11) so there?s a good chance the Phillies can exact a measure of revenge for the three game sweep they suffered at CitiField at the hands of New York. Cole Hamels, Philly?s lone southpaw, checks in with an 0.69 ERA in two night starts here at Citizens Bank. The Mets are averaging an anemic 3.6 runs per game vs. lefties, and they are only 1-7 in night games on the road this year. We like our chances with the Phillies? staff ace, whom we expect to see this weekend. BEST BET: Hamels.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The 18-6 Cardinals have opened up a nice early lead in the NL Central, winning 9 of their last 11 (+$655) and posting the best team ERA in MLB so far (2.21). The Pirates rank 2nd in the NL, but their 2.79 mark still falls well short of the visitor?s. St. Louis swept the Pirates in three straight at Busch Stadium last weekend (+$300) but Pittsburgh has been very tough to beat here at PNC Park. Last year they turned a fat profit vs. righthanders in this ballpark (+$1545) and they are a solid 6-3 at home in 2015 (+$245). We?re tempted to take the Bucs if the price is right, but we?ll hold back given how well the Cardinals are playing at the moment. BEST BET: None.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Cubs expected a soft opponent at Wrigley Field when they hosted these Brewers last weekend. They ended up dropping 2 out of 3 (-$225), falling further back of the first place Cardinals in the process. Nevertheless, they appear to be significantly improved over last year?s version, checking in with a solid 3.66 team ERA, as opposed to Milwaukee?s ugly 4.42 mark. They?ve gone 5-1 vs. righthanders on the road (+$405), averaging 5.8 runs per game on offense in those contests. The Brewers have scored the fewest runs in the league at this point (only 3.2 per game) and their all-righty rotation looks very vulnerable vs. Chicago. We should catch decent prices on the visitor throughout. BEST BET: Cubs in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at Colorado (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Rockies had been holding their own, but their dreadful pitching (5.08 team ERA) has them heading down in the NL West standings, and it seems unlikely they?ll be able to hold up vs. the first place Dodgers, who check in here with a 15-6 record against righthanded starters (+$695, averaging 5.1 runs per game in those contests). LA swept this team at Chavez Ravine back in April (+$300) and Colorado is losing money vs. righties here at Coors Field. LA was superb on the road last season (+$1470) and we like their chances here. BEST BET: Dodgers when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Detroit (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
After dropping the first two games at Kaufman Stadium, the Tigers pulled out the final games of the four game set, as these two AL powerhouses trade blows in a fight for division supremacy. Kansas City is proving that last October was no fluke, posting the lowest ERA in the American League (3.08) along with a .296 team BA, also tops in the AL. The Tigers are strong but not nearly as impressive (.278 BA. 3.95 ERA) and we?re not comfortable taking them as favorites vs. such a formidable visitor. Edinson Volquez has proved to be a good fit in KC (2.10 ERA in five starts) and we like his chances opening this series at Comerica. BEST BET: Volquez.
Minnesota at Cleveland (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Twins have jumped out of nowhere to end the week over the .500 mark, following an impressive four game sweep vs. the White Sox at Target Field. Their starters have been looking much better in recent days (3.57 ERA last 10) and they get to jump on a floundering Cleveland team (-$940 overall) that they?ve already taken 2 of 3 from in head to head play. The Tribe is only 4-8 at Progressive Field to start the year (-$715) so if the price is right we?ll take a shot with Minnesota. BEST BET: Twins at +125 or better.
Boston at Toronto (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Red Sox are hovering around the .500 level, but they do not have the look of a serious contender. Their pitching ranks close to last in the majors right now (5.04 ERA), they?ve lost Ryan Hanigan at catcher, forcing them to rush a prospect into service, and they are only hitting .243 as a team. The Blue Jays aren?t pitching particularly well either, but they?ve scored more runs than any team in baseball (5.5 per game so far). If the price is in line we?ll try our luck with the home team. BEST BET: Blue Jays at -125 or less.
Oakland at Seattle (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The A?s are well off the pace in the AL West (11-15, -$700 so far) but the Mariners haven?t been much better (10-15, -$880), which has left the door open for the upstart Astros to take the early division lead. But they have a sensational offense that ranks near the top of the league in total runs scored, and they check in with a 6-3 mark vs. righties in night games on the road. Seattle has posted dreadful numbers at Safeco (-$545) and other than Felix Hernandez, none of the home team?s righties give us much cause for concern. BEST BET: Athletics vs. all righties except F. Hernandez in night games.
Cincinnati at Chicago W. Sox (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The situation in Chicago is bleak once again. They ended the weekend on a five game losing streak, they rank near the bottom of the league in pitching (4.56 ERA) as well as hitting (.242 BA, averaging a pitiful 3.2 runs per game). The Reds have been getting some quality starts in outings in recent days (3.55 ERA among starters in their last 10) so we?ll try our luck with staff ace Johnny Cueto (2.72 ERA), who expected to take a turn at US Cellular this weekend. Good value on the road team when he goes. BEST BET: Cueto.
San Diego at Arizona (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Padres have a lot going for them this year, including the highest scoring offense in the NL (5.0 runs per game so far), so it?s surprising to see them slumping (4-6, -$305 in their last 10). They?ve lost money vs. righthanders in all settings (-$235) and that will hurt them when taking on the all-righty Arizona rotation. The D?backs? pitching staff will not be at full strength, with ace righty Archie Bradley on the DL after being hit by a line drive in his last outing. But Josh Collmenter checks in with an impressive 3.03 after five starts, and he will be on the hill this weekend. BEST BET: Collmenter.
Miami at San Francisco (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Marlins have bounced back from a dismal first two weeks and are now one of the hottest teams in the majors, winning 9 of their last 11 (+$665). They have the best team BA in the league at this time (.274) and despite having their two best pitchers sidelined they?ve gotten excellent work from a number of starters. Miami was a big money-maker vs. lefties in 2014 (+$725) and they?ve racked up a 4-1 mark this year (+$285, averaging 5.4 runs per game). Bradley Bumgarner will no doubt be a heavy favorite at ATT Park, we?ll back the visitor when he throws. BEST BET: Marlins vs. Bumgarner.
Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Orioles have seen their schedule disrupted by events in Baltimore, so it?s hard to get behind them in the Bronx when they square off against the sizzling hot Yankees (NY 8-2, +$590 in the last 10 days). The O?s have serious pitching problems (4.31 team ERA) while New York checks in with a stellar 3.20 mark, 3rd best in the American League at this time. Michael Pineda is rounding into form very nicely (+$265 overall, with a 2.03 ERA in his last two appearances) and Nathan Eovaldi looks more and more impressive. Both are likely to appear in this series. BEST BET: Pineda/Eovaldi.
Texas at Tampa Bay (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
We knew the Rangers would pitch poorly this year (4.26 ERA so far) but what?s surprising is how poorly they?ve fared at the plate (.216 team BA, worst in the league). They?ve already racked up some hefty losses (-$595 overall) and they?ll face a tough Tampa team that has won 7 of its last 11 (+$310). Chris Archer (1.64 ERA in six starts) and Jake Odorizzi (2.41 in five outings) have done a terrific job anchoring the injury plagued rotation. Both will take a turn at Tropicana Field this weekend. BEST BET: Archer/Odorizzi.
Houston at L.A. Angels (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Astros had hoped to achieve a respectable .500 mark this season after years of futility, but they?ve done much much more up to this point. They?ve amassed a stunning 18-7 mark to open the 2015 campaign (+$1395), aided by a surprisingly effective mound corps (3.12 team ERA, 2nd best in the AL). The Angels aren?t hitting much (.224 BA, next to last in the league) and their numbers vs. righties are horrible (-$655, averaging just 3.6 runs per game). We should catch some nice prices on the visiting underdog when they come to Anaheim. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Angels.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, MAY 8
Atlanta at Washington (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Nationals got a needed boost when they posted back to back 1-0 victories over the Mets at CitiField. But they continue to flounder vs. righthanded starters (8-12, -$745) and they?re likely to see at least a couple this weekend. But it?s hard to get excited about the fading Braves (4-8, -$365 in their last 12), a team that is unlikely to contend in the NL East this season. We?ll like to see the Nats pick things up at the plate before we lay fat prices on them. We?ll take a closer look on game day. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
After a spectacular start to the season the Mets have cooled off considerably in recent days (4-7, -$260 in their last 11) so there?s a good chance the Phillies can exact a measure of revenge for the three game sweep they suffered at CitiField at the hands of New York. Cole Hamels, Philly?s lone southpaw, checks in with an 0.69 ERA in two night starts here at Citizens Bank. The Mets are averaging an anemic 3.6 runs per game vs. lefties, and they are only 1-7 in night games on the road this year. We like our chances with the Phillies? staff ace, whom we expect to see this weekend. BEST BET: Hamels.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The 18-6 Cardinals have opened up a nice early lead in the NL Central, winning 9 of their last 11 (+$655) and posting the best team ERA in MLB so far (2.21). The Pirates rank 2nd in the NL, but their 2.79 mark still falls well short of the visitor?s. St. Louis swept the Pirates in three straight at Busch Stadium last weekend (+$300) but Pittsburgh has been very tough to beat here at PNC Park. Last year they turned a fat profit vs. righthanders in this ballpark (+$1545) and they are a solid 6-3 at home in 2015 (+$245). We?re tempted to take the Bucs if the price is right, but we?ll hold back given how well the Cardinals are playing at the moment. BEST BET: None.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Cubs expected a soft opponent at Wrigley Field when they hosted these Brewers last weekend. They ended up dropping 2 out of 3 (-$225), falling further back of the first place Cardinals in the process. Nevertheless, they appear to be significantly improved over last year?s version, checking in with a solid 3.66 team ERA, as opposed to Milwaukee?s ugly 4.42 mark. They?ve gone 5-1 vs. righthanders on the road (+$405), averaging 5.8 runs per game on offense in those contests. The Brewers have scored the fewest runs in the league at this point (only 3.2 per game) and their all-righty rotation looks very vulnerable vs. Chicago. We should catch decent prices on the visitor throughout. BEST BET: Cubs in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at Colorado (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Rockies had been holding their own, but their dreadful pitching (5.08 team ERA) has them heading down in the NL West standings, and it seems unlikely they?ll be able to hold up vs. the first place Dodgers, who check in here with a 15-6 record against righthanded starters (+$695, averaging 5.1 runs per game in those contests). LA swept this team at Chavez Ravine back in April (+$300) and Colorado is losing money vs. righties here at Coors Field. LA was superb on the road last season (+$1470) and we like their chances here. BEST BET: Dodgers when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Detroit (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
After dropping the first two games at Kaufman Stadium, the Tigers pulled out the final games of the four game set, as these two AL powerhouses trade blows in a fight for division supremacy. Kansas City is proving that last October was no fluke, posting the lowest ERA in the American League (3.08) along with a .296 team BA, also tops in the AL. The Tigers are strong but not nearly as impressive (.278 BA. 3.95 ERA) and we?re not comfortable taking them as favorites vs. such a formidable visitor. Edinson Volquez has proved to be a good fit in KC (2.10 ERA in five starts) and we like his chances opening this series at Comerica. BEST BET: Volquez.
Minnesota at Cleveland (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Twins have jumped out of nowhere to end the week over the .500 mark, following an impressive four game sweep vs. the White Sox at Target Field. Their starters have been looking much better in recent days (3.57 ERA last 10) and they get to jump on a floundering Cleveland team (-$940 overall) that they?ve already taken 2 of 3 from in head to head play. The Tribe is only 4-8 at Progressive Field to start the year (-$715) so if the price is right we?ll take a shot with Minnesota. BEST BET: Twins at +125 or better.
Boston at Toronto (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Red Sox are hovering around the .500 level, but they do not have the look of a serious contender. Their pitching ranks close to last in the majors right now (5.04 ERA), they?ve lost Ryan Hanigan at catcher, forcing them to rush a prospect into service, and they are only hitting .243 as a team. The Blue Jays aren?t pitching particularly well either, but they?ve scored more runs than any team in baseball (5.5 per game so far). If the price is in line we?ll try our luck with the home team. BEST BET: Blue Jays at -125 or less.
Oakland at Seattle (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The A?s are well off the pace in the AL West (11-15, -$700 so far) but the Mariners haven?t been much better (10-15, -$880), which has left the door open for the upstart Astros to take the early division lead. But they have a sensational offense that ranks near the top of the league in total runs scored, and they check in with a 6-3 mark vs. righties in night games on the road. Seattle has posted dreadful numbers at Safeco (-$545) and other than Felix Hernandez, none of the home team?s righties give us much cause for concern. BEST BET: Athletics vs. all righties except F. Hernandez in night games.
Cincinnati at Chicago W. Sox (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The situation in Chicago is bleak once again. They ended the weekend on a five game losing streak, they rank near the bottom of the league in pitching (4.56 ERA) as well as hitting (.242 BA, averaging a pitiful 3.2 runs per game). The Reds have been getting some quality starts in outings in recent days (3.55 ERA among starters in their last 10) so we?ll try our luck with staff ace Johnny Cueto (2.72 ERA), who expected to take a turn at US Cellular this weekend. Good value on the road team when he goes. BEST BET: Cueto.
