GAS PRICES..help from the smart ones

Old School

OVR
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Mar 19, 2006
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the gas prices were tuff on all of us this year. As a small business owner I was forced for the first time in 10 years to have to an additional fee for gas to just about every customer to cover the expense of travel and use by the landscaping machines.I hated doing it.

Come Jan. I will pay the taxman FED/STATE and do my projections for 2009 business year.

Would some of you savvy folks please give me some insight as to what I can expect for gas prices in the year ahead.

The article below leads me to think that we all will be forced to pay a price that is not in direct proporation to the cost per barrel.

$147 a barrel this past July and paying 3.50 at the pump.

so if price slips to 50.00 a barrel why will we not pay a proportional price.?

am I missing something here.

Thanks in advance for help on this subject..







By Jane Merriman Jane Merriman
1 hr 49 mins ago

LONDON (Reuters) ? Oil fell more than $2 to below $52 a barrel on Monday after OPEC decided to wait until mid-December to make another cut in output to try to defend sagging prices.

U.S. light crude for January delivery was down $2.53 at $51.90 a barrel by 0937 GMT (4:37 a.m. EST).

Oil had settled at $54.43 on Friday after a shortened post-Thanksgiving holiday session. On November 21, it touched a three and half year low of $48.25.

London Brent crude was $2.62 lower at $50.87 a barrel.

"The markets are discounting OPEC's decision to stand put by selling off," said Edward Meir, analyst at broker MF Global.

"When it comes to calibrating supply and demand to fit the new post-September economic realities, OPEC seems to be in a state of denial," he said in a research note.

Oil is down by almost two-thirds from a peak of more than $147 a barrel in July. Prices fell almost 20 percent in November and 32 percent in October, their biggest monthly fall ever, despite OPEC's around 2 million barrels per day cutbacks.

"FAIR PRICE"

A global economic slowdown that has tipped a growing number of countries into recession has caused sharp falls in demand for oil.

But OPEC's Gulf producers want to see strict compliance with the producer group's existing output curbs of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) before agreeing to any more.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets next in Algeria on December 17.

Saudi Arabia on Saturday pointed to $75 a barrel as a "fair price" for oil, the first time in years that the world's biggest exporter has identified a target for crude prices.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi in Cairo cited this price as necessary to keep more expensive new projects at the margins of world supply on track.

"I believe $75 is the price for the marginal producer," he told reporters in Cairo.

On Sunday he told the Saudi-owned al-Hayat newspaper the effect of OPEC's existing cuts was still not clear.

In Cairo, OPEC ministers discussed how much more they needed to cut. Most, including Gulf producers led by Saudi Arabia, saw the need to trim another 1 to 1.5 million bpd.

OPEC Secretary General al-Badri told reporters in Tehran on Monday: "It will be a good amount, a good quantity," without naming a specific figure.

Analysts said OPEC's delay could prove costly.

"The longer OPEC waits to cut supplies, the higher stocks rise and the longer we think it'll take for fundamentals to tighten once the tide does turn," Jan Stuart, an economist with UBS in New York, said in a weekly U.S. oil data report.

(Additional reporting by Maryelle Demongeot in Singapore and Osamu Tsukimori on Tokyo; editing by James Jukwey)

$147 a barrel this past July and paying 3.50 at the pump.

so if price slips to 50.00 a barrell why will we not pay a proportional price.?

am I missing something here.

Thanks in advance for help on this subject..
 

dawgball

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Feb 12, 2000
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There are many things that effect the price of gas besides the price of crude oil. There is not a direct proportional realtionship between the two. Taxes being one of them.

Gas is between $1.50 - $1.80 in the three states that I have been in this past week (KY, TN, GA - with KY being the cheapest). Gas was over $4.00 at one point in these same areas. So it has not dropped by 2/3 but it is pretty close. $1.32 would be 66% off the high end that we saw around here.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Jul 13, 1999
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--apologize for short answer this morning Old School but was in hurry and should have elborated.

Consider this--2 questions

Would you be happy if gas remained at price it is today?
Do you know approximately how much fuel your business will use next year?

If answer to both questions is yes let me introduce you to UGA ( US Gas Fund)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=uga

In its simplest form it is a traded fund that mirrors price of gas on movement. If gas goes up so does fund--if gas goes down--so does fund.

So buy same dollar amount of fund that you expect to use in gas-at todays price for 2009.

If you know you will use about 10,000 gallons next year mulitiply it by price of gas on given day and invest that amount in fund.
If gas goes up your fund mirrors it and extra you pay for gas is offset by profit in fund--if prices goes down-your loss in fund is mirrored by price you save at pump--so basically the cost you pay for gas in 2009 will be same as day you purchase fund --less a few taxes if you fund goes up.

Your virtually taking control of your cost of gas away from gov-oil companies-and opec and naming your own net price you will pay next year.

--only one draw back--it makes all media prognosticators on their gloomy projections of $5 gas--and threads from those whining why gas is so high--insignificant.

--only other choice I know is --the hope and change alternative--and personally I prefer to control my own destiny. ;)
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Dec 27, 2000
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Belly of the Beast
I agree. Gas prices are being artificially held down right now, but I'm not sure why.

But if you are using dog's advice, still make sure that you're charging your customers for the fuel surcharge - it's standard practice and you shouldn't fell bad for passing those costs onto the customers.
 
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