Crude Prices Continue Fall
By GEORGE JAHN
Associated Press Writer
VIENNA, Austria Crude futures slumped Monday, as OPEC pondered a possible output increase of half a million barrels a day beginning next month to help meet an anticipated demand surge in the second half of the year.
Analysts said crude inventory growth revealed last week by the U.S. Energy Department and speculative trading also weighed on prices. But they suggested that increased summer demand ? and potential refining bottlenecks ? could again turn the market higher in the coming weeks.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 52 cents to $52.80 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late morning in Europe, while heating oil prices were down nearly 1 1/2 cents at $1.4825 a gallon. Unleaded gasoline was fetching $1.5280 a gallon, down nearly a penny.
"Kuwait believes that the increase in production is still possible and may come in May due to the expected rise in demand by about 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter," OPEC President Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed Al Sabah, also Kuwait's oil minister, said Sunday.
Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah also said this weekend that a second output increase ahead of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' June 15 meeting was still possible. Recently, the 11-member cartel has been attempting to counter frequent price surges and a jittery market with announcements of production increases.
Demand is expected to rise in the third quarter due to the onset of the summer driving season in the United States, the world's biggest crude oil consumer.
Last week, the U.S. Energy Department said the nation's inventory of crude oil grew by 2.4 million barrels to 317.1 million barrels, or 8 percent higher than last year.
In Vienna, PVM Oil Associates GmbH said described the slump as a "temporary downward correction."
"If this movement can be pinned to any one event, it was probably the relatively bearish U.S. stocks data reports," the energy brokerage and consulting company said in a newsletter.
Analyst Alex Scott said a combination of the healthy inventory builds and OPEC readiness to boost the organization's output ceiling ? "perhaps intensified by some of the speculative trades on the market" ? accounted for the present drift.
But Scott, with Seven Investment Management in London, suggested the trend could be short-lived as increased summer demand kicks in.
"As the driving season starts and the air conditioners get turned on, we're going to see some more demand," he said.
Over the longer term, said Scott, bottlenecks in refining capacity also remain an issue "and can continue to create episodes of real tightness."
Vienna's PVM also warned of possible tightness ahead, saying that ? while "U.S. refiners do currently appear to be able to supply markets there amply ... it remains to be see whether this will still be possible later this year."
OPEC raised output limits by 500,000 barrels per day in March to 27.5 million barrels per day in a bid to cool prices. It left room for a second 500,000 barrels per day increase before a June meeting if prices failed to drop below $55. The group began talks on the second rise last weekend and said then it could decide within two weeks.
Oil analyst Peter Kemp in London told the Energy Intelligence Web site Monday that despite a five-day price slide last week, it's "seriously premature" to predict a burst in the oil bubble anytime soon.
"Prices are volatile but still well above $50 on both sides of the Atlantic," said Kemp. "The slight slippage of recent days was more of a reality check than a correction, in recognition of the build in inventories that will occur in the second quarter."
.......................................................................................
what a crock of horse patoot.
Increase demand, oil outputs ! What a laugh.
Consumers have no clue how much output, input, up the ars put
is going on with gas prices. Lets face it. We have no way of knowing what is going on and are forced to pay these gas gouging prices. They are going to put the small business owners out of business by the thousands.
Not sure what we can do but we better think of something. Notice Bush says nothing. This should be a major issue in my opinion. Fawk social security. Fix the gas problems!